Ive been looking at the numbers from a variety of sources to see if we can tell if we are getting accurate figures and I think I found a way to tell within 2 weeks.
Math and statistics are not my strong point but here is what I was thinking about.
Beginning with some news sources that generally say this....
"Chinese health authorities confirmed Tuesday that the coronavirus outbreak had infected 4,515 people, with 106 reported deaths. It means the virus has killed just over 2% of those that have been infected."
Coronavirus vs. SARS: Health experts on the key differences between the two outbreaks
Here is what Im thinking would tell us something in 2 weeks time. JMO of course.
It gets confusing so I could be off with this thinking.
Was looking at the released numbers from a variety of news sources and if we go with an "R0 factor" of 2.5, it would mean for every person that catches it, it is likely to be passed on to 2.5 other people. The other thing that we have to take into consideration is not all die, so we have to take into account the mortality rate as well.
And, thirdly, if we take into consideration the 2 week incubation period and we already have around 100 known deaths right now. That means these 100 people were infected at least 2 weeks ago. Which further means that we can expect an almost double number of people being infected but only 2% of that additional number should die. So if the number of deaths in the next 2 weeks lets say increases to 300 or so, then something is off with what we are being told.
The number of deaths should only go up by 2% of the expected double increase of cases based on the R0 factor. We have around 4500 cases and so lets say in 2 weeks it is claimed as 9000, then 2% of the additional 4500 =
(0.02 X 4500) = 90 new deaths expected in about 2 weeks.
If we see more than that, then that means something is off with what we are hearing like either the "R0 factor of 2.5" is off, or the mortality rate is off, or we are not getting accurate information or some combination of these.
