Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #5

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scandinavian girl said:
May 9, 2020 - May 31, 2020 - The 102nd edition of the Giro d’Italia kicks off in the Hungarian capital, Budapest, and includes three individual time trials, with the final test against the clock coming on the last day in Milan

May 9 is soon, I will follow this. nothing mentioned of the virus on the Official giro board.

I am very concerned actually.

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As soon as global sports events that originate in Europe are cancelled, the rest of the first world pays attention - potential panic. For the same tourism dollar reasons that Japan, South Korea and Iran delayed reporting, reporting means cancellations, which makes it more serious and no tourism dollars.

Italy reported right away, thankfully, and they went full red alert from the beginning.
 
I'm not certain that young children are not killed by this. Not yet anyway.
I have seen more than I care to wrt video evidence. (No proof it is or isn't related to Coronavirus 19)
Nevertheless absolutely haunting!
MOO
 
otto said:
Seems a bit f-ed up that Italy has 10 places under lockdown overnight due to deadly virus outbreak, doesn't it?
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Nope it’s perfectly normal and if China hadn’t tried to hide this in the beginning we wouldn’t be at this stage. Its better to overreact than under react at this stage when we are still learning how it’s spreading. Nobody wants this to to take hold in other counties either so countries need to be firm and nip it in the bud.


IMO
 
otto said:
I would really like to see a simulation of the spread so far wth an open speculation about what next, but haven't found anything like that yet.
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One of the earlier Dr John Campbell vids on YouTube has some info from a report from The Lancet, and they predicted (about 2 weeks ago) that the situation in Wuhan would peak around April 20th, and the rest of China about 2 weeks later.

I know that's not exactly what you asked for, but it seems relevant to your question. I am very curious how they came up with those dates, and if they will be realistic.
 
asyousay said:
Nope it’s perfectly normal and if China hadn’t tried to hide this in the beginning we wouldn’t be at this stage. Its better to overreact than under react at this stage when we are still learning how it’s spreading. Nobody wants this to to take hold in other counties either so countries need to be firm and nip it in the bud.
IMO
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It's too late to "nip it n the bud." The virus is an epidemic in South Korea, Iran and Italy. Iran seems to have hidden positive cases for the last 3 weeks, only making an announcements where there were 2 deaths. There are likely thousands of cases in Iran - given the 2% infection rate, 3 weeks until death, and 2 deaths announced in Iran before the illness was announced. Italy just red-lined with 10-12 areas in 5 regions declaring lockdown. South Korea has shown a steady transparent rise in cases.

I think the WHO's narrow window to "contain" is nearly closed.

The last time I checked the rules for declaring a pandemic was a couple of weeks ago, but the best I remember is that pandemic was the next level and that relied on epidemics in two other countries. Does anyone have any more info? I'll look for the link ... but
 
Amonet said:
One of the earlier Dr John Campbell vids on YouTube has some info from a report from The Lancet, and they predicted (about 2 weeks ago) that the situation in Wuhan would peak around April 20th, and the rest of China about 2 weeks later.

I know that's not exactly what you asked for, but it seems relevant to your question. I am very curious how they came up with those dates, and if they will be realistic.
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Wuhan peaking in April, when it started in Nov/Dec and it spread in Jan/Feb, means the rest of the world will be 3-4 months later, in August, October.
 
otto said:
From reading about this virus early on, it sounds like it can suddenly turn from 3 weeks recovering to death in 24 hours. It seems to silently invade organs and attack at once, with worst case scenario being kidneys and lungs simultaneously, gradually choking lungs as they feel like glass.

Young children are not killed by the virus. What if the virus was smart enough to only kill aged hosts and preserve a continuous supply of young hosts. That's a bit of a dystopian sci fi novel idea, but what if? Aren't we living in the world of sci fi with people in space suits checking temps and monitoring the general population?

The truth today is that the WHO has said that window to prevent a pandemic is narrowing. The next day, Italy, Iran and South Korea announced unknown sources for infection. Canada also had a case from Iran with unknown source. The truth is out there, it's just a question of what people do with the information.
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Thanks to responding to my post, Otto. God, what a horrid thought, but is true, "what if?" I just am beyond knowing what to think. However, I could swear, (although I don't know where), that they thought children weren't as suspecitible, but now children have died. MOO. I don't know which thought is worse, though, honestly. Thanks, again. Katt
 
otto said:
It's too late to "nip it n the bud." The virus is an epidemic in South Korea, Iran and Italy. Iran seems to have hidden positive cases for the last 3 weeks, only making an announcements where there were 2 deaths. There are likely thousands of cases in Iran - given the 2% infection rate, 3 weeks until death, and 2 deaths announced in Iran before the illness was announced. Italy just red-lined with 10-12 areas in 5 regions declaring lockdown. South Korea has shown a steady transparent rise in cases.

I think the WHO's narrow window to "contain" is nearly closed.

The last time I checked the rules for declaring a pandemic was a couple of weeks ago, but the best I remember is that pandemic was the next level and that relied on epidemics in two other countries. Does anyone have any more info? I'll look for the link ... but
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Well Italy are going to try hence the lock down and that’s not wrong and it’s totally logical IMO


Also with the way this is spreading I bet it will come back to haunt the people in power that are transporting some of these infected back to their own country’s has been a bad idea. You are literally putting 100’s of workers in danger as well and they don’t fully know how this is spreading and it’s going to cause more spread. It’s a disaster waiting to happen.


IMO
MOO
 
katsrfun said:
Thanks to responding to my post, Otto. God, what a horrid thought, but is true, "what if?" I just am beyond knowing what to think. However, I could swear, (although I don't know where), that they thought children weren't as susceptible, but now children have died. MOO. I don't know which thought is worse, though, honestly. Thanks, again. Katt
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I don't know what to think either, what to make of people who come to work with the daily sniffles, and then, like in Italy, lockdown over night.

It's true that the death rate for children appears to be at zero, but perhaps others have seen children lined up 3 at a time in one body bag. There have been deaths in all age groups, as far as I know, but in the context of total infected and total early childhood deaths, it seems too small to register.
 
asyousay said:
Well Italy are going to try hence the lock down and that’s not wrong and it’s totally logical IMO


Also with the way this is spreading I bet it will come back to haunt the people in power that are transporting some of these infected back to their own country’s has been a bad idea. You are literally putting 100’s of workers in danger as well and they don’t fully know how this is spreading and it’s going to cause more spread. It’s a disaster waiting to happen.

IMO
MOO
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I think that full border lockdown should be ordered by the WHO, but instead they are pussyfooting around, debating when to announce the pandemic. Hopefully bias is not a factor in global health.
 
otto said:
I think that full border lockdown should be ordered by the WHO, but instead they are pussyfooting around, debating when to announce the pandemic. Hopefully bias is not a factor in global health.
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We don’t matter let’s be honest and it’s all about Money.


A global lock down of flights from China should of happened in January. But because of money they don’t want to do a travel bans but it’s got to stage where it needs to be done ASAP.

Look at how many people have been released from quarantine after 14 days when we have seen reports it can be up to 24 days and yesterday they said even as long as 27 days. It’s a ticking time bomb imo
 
asyousay said:
We don’t matter let’s be honest and it’s all about Money.

A global lock down of flights from China should of happened in January. But because of money they don’t want to do a travel bans but it’s got to stage where it needs to be done ASAP.

Look at how many people have been released from quarantine after 14 days when we have seen reports it can be up to 24 days and yesterday they said even as long as 27 days. It’s a ticking time bomb imo
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It does seem that economics, air travel and supply chain, have been at the centre of global virus related decisions. Air travel has not been stopped, although cities have been quarantined. Cities quarantined, countries not quarantined. Why not?

Yes, it is starting to look more and more like the open global border is the reason that the virus traveled around the world in 3-4 months.

I'm also skeptical of the 14 day isolation period. There's evidence that it may not be long enough, but on average may be good enough. It's a time bomb that is not yet released, yet seems imminent.
 
Fears 14-day coronavirus quarantine is two weeks too short after Chinese pensioner took 27 days to show symptoms

The 70-year-old man was infected with the killer virus in China's Hubei Province and showed symptoms nearly four weeks later, the local government said on Saturday.

He drove to Shennongjia, in north-western Hubei, from eastern Ezhou, where he had close contact with his sister, who had been infected, on January 24, according to the Hubei government website.

Fears 14-day coronavirus quarantine is too short after pensioner took 27 days to show symptoms | Daily Mail Online


 
As a fifth death is announced, South Korea’s president authorizes bold measures.

President Moon Jae-in on Sunday put South Korea on the highest possible alert in its fight against the coronavirus, a move that empowers the government to lock down cities and take other sweeping measures to contain the outbreak.

“The coming few days will be a critical time for us,” Mr. Moon said at an emergency meeting of government officials to discuss the outbreak, which in just days has spiraled to 602 confirmed infections and five deaths. “This will be a momentous time when the central government, local governments, health officials and medical personnel and the entire people must wage an all-out, concerted response to the problem.”

Coronavirus Live Updates: South Korea’s Leader Raises Alert Level to Maximum

Source - New York Times - Copy from the statement from the South Korean President



 
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