Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #7

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Gone Girl said:
Been following this thread religiously and so appreciate all of you. I have been consumed by this as I have bad asthma and propensity for chest/lung infection. I ordered masks at the onset and have 10 simple n95 masks. I gave to my sister and mother. No cases where I live but my twin sis and I are supposed to go to casino and spa tomorrow for our birthday. We planned a while ago as we have a real birthday this year Feb 29th lol. Now I’m dreading it and not sure if I should cancel or if I am ridiculous.

FYI I tried to order expensive masks from Amazon yesterday. Everything went through and I was charged but then got email saying order canceled out of stock. This keeps happening. My question is how many masks do we need?? Are you all expecting to remain in your homes? At what stage will you make the decision? When someone is infected in your neighborhood? Thank you in advance for your thoughts
Click to expand...

JMO
Those are really good questions, and its really tough to answer as each person may have unique situation that makes it different for each of us. From available monies, location (living in a large poplated city versus living in country), existing health conditions, etc.,
It really makes each persons decision unique in that what is sufficient for one may not feel sufficient to another.

For me personally, I am trying to just buy more of the things that I would use anyway in the long run, and I use masks for other things throughout the year like when I spray weed killer in the summer or use spray paint on outdoor things or my occasional wood working project where wood dust flies around during sawing wood. I use about 10 masks a year on average, so I ended up getting 3 boxes of 20 count 3M-N95 8210-Plus masks which gives me 3 times what I normally would have on hand anyway.

Ive also bought more of vitamins, Eldenberry, Vitamin C, etc to try to booste immune system up. And stocking up on rubber gloves which I always use almost daily anyway for other cleaning type chores. The gloves are getting real hard to find I have noticed. I had to resort to buying the type I dont like. I love the thin blue disposable ones if you can find them. They go on real easily and dont leave a powdery residue on your hands.

Im trying not to go overboard and only get things I will eventually use up. For food, we always have lots of canned goods anyway as we live rural and so we are already used to having a well stocked freezer and lots of canned foods and other bulk items. So at least for me, food has not been something I needed to add to supplies.

Whatever one feels comfortable or financially able to add to their supplies. Doing things that makes sense for each person. Its all we really can do, and the good news is I am willing to bet that we here on this thread are at least doing more than most people (most are probably not doing anything to try to prepare for things to come if it gets worse).
 
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I expect more from our government.
The truth should be told. NO. There is not a vaccine. None will be available in the near future. We are not near to having one.

When available, a vaccine should be available for all. How dumb would it be to vaccine only part of the population and allow a virus to continue to spread? What talk is this that some people may not be able to afford it? Can you imagine what panic this would cause?

Masks should be available for all. Rumor has it they are stockpiled.

People should be told NOT to go to a clinic or hospital but each state, city, county should be telling people who are suspect where to report.

Online and public posts should be out there with instructions how to pause the spread, what to avoid, how to continue if it's in your area.

No. I am not depending on the government for all. I have insurance, masks, food, meds. However, everyone in our society is not educated about the virus and is not up-to-date or taking things seriously.
 
CDC declined to test new coronavirus patient for days, California hospital says

UC Davis Medical Center wrote in a memo to staff that the patient was transferred from another hospital on Feb. 19 with a suspected viral infection. The hospital requested coronavirus testing, but the CDC initially declined because the patient, who had not recently traveled to countries with outbreaks or been in contact with someone with the virus, did not meet the testing criteria.

It was not until Sunday that the CDC agreed to do a test, and the results then came back on Wednesday as positive.

“Upon admission, our team asked public health officials if this case could be COVID-19,” the UC Davis Medical Center said in a statement, referring to coronavirus. “We requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, since neither Sacramento County nor [California Department of Public Health] is doing testing for coronavirus at this time.”

“Since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for COVID-19, a test was not immediately administered,” the statement added. “UC Davis Health does not control the testing process.”

The CDC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
 
otto said:
I can't figure out why all the pandemic lists include water and batteries. Those are hurricane power outage necessities. Why do people need to worry about a power out in a virus pandemic?
Click to expand...

In my opinion:

if you or a household member is ill and you are self-quarantining,

or

if your community is formally quarantined, whatever that looks like

or

if some folks in your community are ill or suspected to be ill

or

if your community's retail stores run low on supplies due to quarantine anywhere along your delivery chain (including problems at the manufacturing end)

then

your ability to respond to other things happening around you has become compromised. A power outage may not be directly a consequence of the virus but power outages do happen on occasion. People tend to be very dependent on the electric grid so this can create real problems for them (ie food spoilage as has been mentioned, medical equipment, etc). Think about how you would normally respond to a power outage and if it involves "running to the store" then imagine that the store shelves are empty. Or whether you wouldn't want to be "running to the store" if you are attempting to self-quarantine -- regardless of whether you are the one ill or others in your community.

The way I see it, the goal of being prepared is to make every situation that puts you into close proximity with others OPTIONAL. That way you can decide case by case if it's better to avoid the interaction at that time.

All MOO
 
otto said:
Three waves, 1918. Could someone please help me understand what that means? Could that mean that the coronavirus will come in 3 waves, with people sick for the next 6 months - and three peaks?

Rumor is that China cases are in decline. Should we be watching for a next wave of infected patients? OR, does China have it under control and other countries that are more sloppy about the virus will have second and third waves?
Click to expand...

I’m no expert, but I dug up some information while trying to understand the claims that the virus has “peaked” in Hubei. I think there’s some information in the links I’m adding that is important enough for anyone wanting to understand the life cycle (or waves) of an epidemic or pandemic to read through.

Before I get started on the “waves”, I want to give a quick OPINION on the wave cycle of COVID-19. I believe the time to be on highest alert with this virus is immediately following the identification of the FIRST CONFIRMED COMMUNITY DIAGNOSIS IN YOUR AREA! COVID-19 has proven that it is very stealth in nature. My opinion, when that first case is identified in your area, you’re in fact standing in the middle of the invisible wave. Read below and hopefully it will help explain my statement OF OPINION.

In trying to understand it, I started to think of it as a literal wave. Imagine, if you will, a large invisible tidal wave that sweeps across an area (or country). As it sweeps across a population, the initial impact will start to expand, with additional cases being identified every day after the initial cases. If it reaches an epidemic level, then the number of cases will continue to rise on a daily bases until it “peaks”. In regards to an epidemic, the peak is considered the day that has the highest total number of newly reported cases. Once the virus has “peaked”, that doesn’t necessarily mean the virus is actually going to fade away, but the number of daily new cases will either drop off, or will level out.

What’s really important to realize about the peak level is that the peak will occur either when the majority of the population has been infected OR when quarantine measures have an effect on the spread.

So, in regards to the “peak” in Hubei, it’s basically one of two things....
1) The majority of the population has already been infected and the majority had relatively mild symptoms, or
2) The quarantine lockdown has drastically reduced the spread.

Personally, I think #2 is more likely. And if that is the case, once the quarantine restrictions start to be eased, Hubei could see a second “wave”. Different things can cause waves... In regards to the flu, every flu season is basically a viral wave. And every flu wave has the potential to be considered an epidemic if it spreads fast enough or has a high enough mortality rate to meet the criteria.

I have more to add regarding the Hubei “peak”, but I’m looking for some links that I apparently misplaced.... too much info to keep up with

Pandemics: Past, present, and future

[URL="http://pcwww.liv.ac.uk/epidemics/epidemic_wave.html"]Understanding Epidemics: Section1B: The Epidemic Wave[/URL]
 
Hatfield said:
JMO
Those are really good questions, and its really tough to answer as each person may have unique situation that makes it different for each of us. From available monies, location (living in a large poplated city versus living in country), existing health conditions, etc.,
It really makes each persons decision unique in that what is sufficient for one may not feel sufficient to another.

For me personally, I am trying to just buy more of the things that I would use anyway in the long run, and I use masks for other things throughout the year like when I spray weed killer in the summer or use spray paint on outdoor things or my occasional wood working project where wood dust flies around during sawing wood. I use about 10 masks a year on average, so I ended up getting 3 boxes of 20 count 3M-N95 8210-Plus masks which gives me 3 times what I normally would have on hand anyway.

Ive also bought more of vitamins, Eldenberry, Vitamin C, etc to try to booste immune system up. And stocking up on rubber gloves which I always use almost daily anyway for other cleaning type chores. The gloves are getting real hard to find I have noticed. I had to resort to buying the type I dont like. I love the thin blue disposable ones if you can find them. They go on real easily and dont leave a powdery residue on your hands.

Im trying not to go overboard and only get things I will eventually use up. For food, we always have lots of canned goods anyway as we live rural and so we are already used to having a well stocked freezer and lots of canned foods and other bulk items. So at least for me, food has not been something I needed to add to supplies.

Whatever one feels comfortable or financially able to add to their supplies. Doing things that makes sense for each person. Its all we really can do, and the good news is I am willing to bet that we here on this thread are at least doing more than most people (most are probably not doing anything to try to prepare for things to come if it gets worse).
Click to expand...

Just a personal opinion regarding the masks.... I don’t have high hopes of seeing stock levels of masks being replenished anytime soon. I’m guessing that governments currently have large standing orders that will take full priority until filled. The US government will want and need stockpiles to be used on the front lines. They want enough on hand to ensure there aren’t supply issues with health care workers, first responders, etc
 
Several Iranian government officials have coronavirus. Here's a look at other high-profile cases:

Iran’s Vice President for Women and Family Affairs, Masoumeh Ebtekar, is the latest high-profile government official to test positive for novel coronavirus.
  • Two members of parliament, including the chair of the parliamentary committee for national security, have also been infected by the virus.
  • One of the country’s top clerics, Hadi Khosroshahi, died on Thursday after he contracted the sickness.
  • Deputy Health Minister Iran Haririchi announced on social media Wednesday that he tested positive for COVID-19 — just 24 hours after he tried to downplay the threat of the virus in a press briefing.

Coronavirus news: Italy, China, Iran, South Korea all confirm new cases - CNN
 
What if... said:
I’m no expert, but I dug up some information while trying to understand the claims that the virus has “peaked” in Hubei. I think there’s some information in the links I’m adding that is important enough for anyone wanting to understand the life cycle (or waves) of an epidemic or pandemic to read through.

Before I get started on the “waves”, I want to give a quick OPINION on the wave cycle of COVID-19. I believe the time to be on highest alert with this virus is immediately following the identification of the FIRST CONFIRMED COMMUNITY DIAGNOSIS IN YOUR AREA! COVID-19 has proven that it is very stealth in nature. My opinion, when that first case is identified in your area, you’re in fact standing in the middle of the invisible wave. Read below and hopefully it will help explain my statement OF OPINION.

In trying to understand it, I started to think of it as a literal wave. Imagine, if you will, a large invisible tidal wave that sweeps across an area (or country). As it sweeps across a population, the initial impact will start to expand, with additional cases being identified every day after the initial cases. If it reaches an epidemic level, then the number of cases will continue to rise on a daily bases until it “peaks”. In regards to an epidemic, the peak is considered the day that has the highest total number of newly reported cases. Once the virus has “peaked”, that doesn’t necessarily mean the virus is actually going to fade away, but the number of daily new cases will either drop off, or will level out.

What’s really important to realize about the peak level is that the peak will occur either when the majority of the population has been infected OR when quarantine measures have an effect on the spread.

So, in regards to the “peak” in Hubei, it’s basically one of two things....
1) The majority of the population has already been infected and the majority had relatively mild symptoms, or
2) The quarantine lockdown has drastically reduced the spread.

Personally, I think #2 is more likely. And if that is the case, once the quarantine restrictions start to be eased, Hubei could see a second “wave”. Different things can cause waves... In regards to the flu, every flu season is basically a viral wave. And every flu wave has the potential to be considered an epidemic if it spreads fast enough or has a high enough mortality rate to meet the criteria.

I have more to add regarding the Hubei “peak”, but I’m looking for some links that I apparently misplaced.... too much info to keep up with

Pandemics: Past, present, and future

Understanding Epidemics: Section1B: The Epidemic Wave
Click to expand...

Quoting my own post to add the link regarding the “peak” in Hubei.

I’ll refrain from adding my opinion at the moment. I’ll let you all read through it and see what y’all think.

When will the coronavirus outbreak peak?
 
A cruise ship with more than 6,000 people aboard was given permission on Wednesday to dock in Mexico after passengers were denied entry in two Caribbean ports due to fears, later disproven, that a crew member was infected with the coronavirus.

Global cruise operator MSC Cruises said that Mexican authorities approved its ship MSC Meraviglia to dock in Cozumel. The vessel, which started a tour of the western Caribbean from Miami, was due to arrive late on Wednesday or Thursday.

Jamaica and Grand Cayman had earlier barred passengers of the ship from disembarking on fears that one crew member, who has since been diagnosed with common seasonal flu, might have been infected with the coronavirus.

Mexican cruise ship's coronavirus turns out to be just flu
 
What if... said:
I’m no expert, but I dug up some information while trying to understand the claims that the virus has “peaked” in Hubei. I think there’s some information in the links I’m adding that is important enough for anyone wanting to understand the life cycle (or waves) of an epidemic or pandemic to read through.

Before I get started on the “waves”, I want to give a quick OPINION on the wave cycle of COVID-19. I believe the time to be on highest alert with this virus is immediately following the identification of the FIRST CONFIRMED COMMUNITY DIAGNOSIS IN YOUR AREA! COVID-19 has proven that it is very stealth in nature. My opinion, when that first case is identified in your area, you’re in fact standing in the middle of the invisible wave. Read below and hopefully it will help explain my statement OF OPINION.

In trying to understand it, I started to think of it as a literal wave. Imagine, if you will, a large invisible tidal wave that sweeps across an area (or country). As it sweeps across a population, the initial impact will start to expand, with additional cases being identified every day after the initial cases. If it reaches an epidemic level, then the number of cases will continue to rise on a daily bases until it “peaks”. In regards to an epidemic, the peak is considered the day that has the highest total number of newly reported cases. Once the virus has “peaked”, that doesn’t necessarily mean the virus is actually going to fade away, but the number of daily new cases will either drop off, or will level out.

What’s really important to realize about the peak level is that the peak will occur either when the majority of the population has been infected OR when quarantine measures have an effect on the spread.

So, in regards to the “peak” in Hubei, it’s basically one of two things....
1) The majority of the population has already been infected and the majority had relatively mild symptoms, or
2) The quarantine lockdown has drastically reduced the spread.

Personally, I think #2 is more likely. And if that is the case, once the quarantine restrictions start to be eased, Hubei could see a second “wave”. Different things can cause waves... In regards to the flu, every flu season is basically a viral wave. And every flu wave has the potential to be considered an epidemic if it spreads fast enough or has a high enough mortality rate to meet the criteria.

I have more to add regarding the Hubei “peak”, but I’m looking for some links that I apparently misplaced.... too much info to keep up with

Pandemics: Past, present, and future

Understanding Epidemics: Section1B: The Epidemic Wave
Click to expand...

Excellent post and spot on MOO. Thank you so much for putting into words concisely for the rest of us. When the first wave hits, hospitals and doctors etc need to get into the groove as to how to handle, and may be overwhelmed with initiating how to handle. Getting "the curve" flattened out give a learning curve to handle on an ongoing basis. Best to hunker down if it hits a town near you during the first wave?
 
What if... said:
Just a personal opinion regarding the masks.... I don’t have high hopes of seeing stock levels of masks being replenished anytime soon. I’m guessing that governments currently have large standing orders that will take full priority until filled. The US government will want and need stockpiles to be used on the front lines. They want enough on hand to ensure there aren’t supply issues with health care workers, first responders, etc
Click to expand...

MOO my guess is that 95% of those folks buying are "normal N95 particulate masks", and not the ones which keep out viral particles MOO. CDC has list of FDA masks for workers in non-hospital fields. The list of OSHA n95 masks are for painters and those folks that have industry needs for particles, but are not the viral n95 masks?
 
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