Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #38

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If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
 
[Tried to reply to the last post referencing Taiwan, but can't reply or quote it since it was 2 threads back in #36.]

An acquaintance in Taiwan is bragging about how life isn't that different for them there, they just have to wear masks and avoid crowded areas etc. I'm reading all the articles about their low rates and how they handled it differently than the US, but I can't figure out whether it will never be bad there because of how they're handling it or if she's just in for a big surprise when it finally does hit them like everyone else??? If that was going to happen wouldn't it have happened by now? Any thoughts/opinions from those who know more than I do about this?

They fined one guy $33,000 for trying to go dancing in a nightclub, and they're rewarding people for staying home with things like:

For those who follow the rules, the outcome is more pleasant: a stipend, and goodie bags that can include items ranging from masks and instant noodles to free packages for online gaming and movie services, plus snacks.

...
 
Last edited:
gregjrichards said:
Breaking News U.K Prime Minister Boris Johnson has Coronavirus - Sky News U.K
Click to expand...

I feel so sorry for him, he already has an incredible weight on his shoulders right now plus his partner is pregnant. I hope he keeps well, makes a speedy recovery and that his family and everyone around him stay safe.
 
My guess that so-called wonder drug for covid is most likely useless. The french study that claimed it worked had a very small number of patients and a whole lot of other issues.

"Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic is about to be stopped by a stroke of a French “genius” with a history of publishing manipulated data. The charismatic Didier Raoult, director of the Research Unit in Infectious and Tropical Emergent Diseases (URMITE) in Marseille has found a cure: the humble chloroquine, cheap unpatented substance used to treat malaria and autoimmune diseases lupus and rheumatism. The substance so far failed in all antiviral therapies, but this didn’t prevent Raoult from deciding that chloroquine can cure corona virus infections, serious side effects notwithstanding. To prove that, Raoult treated 26 patients at his institution with the derivative hydroxychloroquine, alone and in combination with the antibiotic (meaning antibacterial!) drug azithromycine. The study was not randomised, ethically approved only after it already began, and it was not really controlled: the 16 control patients were treated in different clinics."
Chloroquine genius Didier Raoult to save the world from COVID-19
 
MamaOV said:
[Tried to reply to the last post referencing Taiwan, but can't reply or quote it since it's in the last thread.]

...
Click to expand...

You can quote a post from older thread by hitting the "+quote" button under this post. Then you go to the new thread and underneath the field where you type, there should be a "insert quote" button (because you marked it before for quoting, otherwise it is not there)
 
Darling136 said:
You can quote a post from older thread by hitting the "+quote" button under this post. Then you go to the new thread and underneath the field where you type, there should be a "insert quote" button (because you marked it before for quoting, otherwise it is not there)
Click to expand...

I know, thanks, but there was no longer a +quote button there... and actually it was 2 threads ago (thread #36), maybe that's why...
 
Elley Mae said:
Snip

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
Click to expand...
Problem words are "assumes" and "suggest".
Plan for the worst, hope for the best....
 
TOM INGLESBY

"Unfortunately given the continued sharp rise in national cases, as well as the acute rise in cases in NY, Chicago, Michigan and elsewhere, the data will not support ending social distancing at day 15 or soon thereafter. 13/x

To consider letting off on social distancing will require sharp decline in cases, widely available rapid diagnostics wherever pts get clinical care, the right PPE available to all HCWS who need it, safe and good hospital capacity to deal with all pts with COVID. 14/x

Comments also made at the Task Force meeting that this is no time to talk about rationing of ventilators. 15/x

But clinicians and hosps in Wash state, NY, NJ, beyond are seeing full ICUs, rising COVID cases. They recognize potential need for rationing soon. It would be irresponsible to wait longer to openly discuss this - they need to prepare staffs and communities for what may come.16/x

Good news that new ventilators may be able to be produced on scale. Bad news is that production delayed around cost concerns. Given overall cost to country of COVID, the price seems worth it to get tens of thousands new vents. There's no time to waste After Considering $1 Billion Price Tag for Ventilators, White House Has Second Thoughts 17/x

Tom Inglesby on Twitter

Dr. Inglesby is the Director of the Center for Health Security of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. The Center for Health Security is dedicated to protecting people’s health from the consequences of epidemics and disasters.

Biography of Tom Inglesby | Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
 
MamaOV said:
[Tried to reply to the last post referencing Taiwan, but can't reply or quote it since it was 2 threads back in #36.]

An acquaintance in Taiwan is bragging about how life isn't that different for them there, they just have to wear masks and avoid crowded areas etc. I'm reading all the articles about their low rates and how they handled it differently than the US, but I can't figure out whether it will never be bad there because of how they're handling it or if she's just in for a big surprise when it finally does hit them like everyone else??? If that was going to happen wouldn't it have happened by now? Any thoughts/opinions from those who know more than I do about this?

They fined one guy $33,000 for trying to go dancing in a nightclub, and they're rewarding people for staying home with things like:

For those who follow the rules, the outcome is more pleasant: a stipend, and goodie bags that can include items ranging from masks and instant noodles to free packages for online gaming and movie services, plus snacks.

...
Click to expand...
I want a goodie bag!
 
FRANCOIS BALLOUX

"Another modelling effort (by people who know what they're doing); no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention. #COVID19 here to stay; likely worse in winter; to avoid excess in short-term deaths, social distancing measures necessary until 2022."

"The possibility of effective, widespread vaccination against #COVID19 is most unlikely within the next 18 months. Short-term breakthroughs in treatment not looking great at the moment ... I feel we should be realistic, ... and rejoice if we had been too pessimistic."

Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic
Francois Balloux on Twitter

Francois Balloux is professor of computational systems biology at University College London.[1][2]

He earned a master's degree and doctorate at the University of Lausanne, then completed postdoctoral research at the University of Edinburgh. Balloux was a lecturer at the University of Cambridge, between 2002 and 2007, when he accepted a position as a reader at Imperial College London. In 2012, Balloux became a professor at University College London.[1]
Francois Balloux - Wikipedia
 
Well, I am about to take off on another Virus Survival Adventure in order to get new tires on Mrs.22's Ford BIG white serial killer van..........I hope to return safely..... Yall hang in there today.....moo
 
De Blasio says New Yorkers should be 'ready' for the city to stay closed until the end of MAY and predicts 'more than half' of the 8.6million population will become infected with coronavirus

Speaking on Good Morning America as the US topped the world's COVID-19 hotspots with 86,000 infections, de Blasio was asked if the city would stay shuttered 'through May'.

He answered: 'I think we need to be ready for that,' then went on to slam President Trump's Easter deadline to reopen the country as something that gave 'false hope' to the nation.

De Blasio says New York may stay closed until the end of MAY | Daily Mail Online

#StayHomeSaveLives
 
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