Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #50

[PommyMommy]

Ryan Struyk on Twitter
National Governors Association: "Opening prematurely—or opening without the tools in place to rapidly identify and stop the spread of the virus—could send states back into crisis mode, push health systems past capacity and force states back into strict social distancing measures"
7:58 PM - 23 Apr 2020

Ryan Struyk on Twitter
National Governors Association on re-opening too early: "This scenario would repeat the negative economic consequences of pandemic response and reduce public confidence, further deepening a recession and protracting economic recovery."
7:58 PM - 23 Apr 2020

Ryan Struyk on Twitter
National Governors Association: "Currently, the U.S. is able to test approximately 12.1 per 1,000 people. Germany has tested 20.9 per 1,000 people, Italy is testing 23.6 per 1,000, and Iceland is testing 125.6 per 1,000."
8:01 PM - 23 Apr 2020

Ryan Struyk on Twitter
National Governors Association: States re-opening too early "will only notice problems when individuals begin to crowd emergency departments" "By that point, it may be too late to avoid larger scale community spread [and] require a return to more extensive stay-in-place measures"
8:06 PM - 23 Apr 2020

Ryan Struyk on Twitter
National Governors Association: "A significant increase in the existing contact tracing public health workforce is needed to address the anticipated numbers of infected persons in the U.S. and effectively control and decrease infection rates."
8:17 PM - 23 Apr 2020

Ryan Struyk on Twitter
National Governors Association: "In a recent report, Johns Hopkins and ASTHO estimated a need between 4 and 81 tracers per 100,000 population, based on level of illness."
8:21 PM - 23 Apr 2020

Ryan Struyk on Twitter
.@RepLizCheney on re-opening country: "I know people want the economy to get open again, but we can't ignore the fact that the virus is still out there. We have to be safe about it. We have to do it the right way, and we need to listen to the public health professionals."
9:17 PM - 23 Apr 2020

Ryan Struyk on Twitter
CNN: 49,000 people in the United States have died from coronavirus.
9:51 PM - 23 Apr 2020

 

[Amonet]

Yet, Cruiselines were absolutely contaminated with it.
Indoors only I guess.
Perhaps I'll frequent my tanning bad 5 - 10 min after I have to venture out. Lol
Heat may be good, but people will retreat to where it's cool and it will continue to spread.
I feel like this is more nonsense, that will change in a week or 2.
It's frustrating!
Moo

Instead of a tanning bed, you could just remove clothes and wash them, and have a shower? Once it's washed off the body isn't that it?

And if it got into the lungs, the bed/sunlight won't help.

For most of us, washing the hands is the main thing as they are the main way to pick up the virus by touch, and washing hands and avoiding touching the face stops it from being moved from hands to the inside of the body.

 

[margarita25]

States race to start coronavirus contact tracing, a monumental task ahead
Apr 22

“A massive effort is currently underway by states across the country to recruit more manpower for the complex effort, which experts say will require billions of dollars and tens of thousands of people in an unprecedented effort to contain the virus by going from person to person.”

[...]

“A report co-authored by university health experts and a group representing state and territorial health officials estimates that in order to “trace all contacts, safely isolate the sick, and quarantine those exposed,” the country needs to add 100,000 contact tracers to the current effort, to the tune of $3.6 billion dollars. Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director and New York City health commissioner Tom Friedman said he believes the country needs “an army of 300,000 people.””

[...]

“Gov. Gavin Newsom of California announced Wednesday afternoon that the state is building a massive army of 10,000 tracers as part of its efforts to prepare the state for future reentry. Newsom added that tracing is "not just about numbers," but also "about quality," explaining that the state is implementing systems to ensure good information is collected.

Massachusetts is in its second week of a contact tracing program that’s among the most aggressive in the nation. The state has hired more than 300 people to begin tracing and in the first week of the program contact investigators reached 765 Massachusetts residents who have tested positive.”

[...]

““There are a lot of people in the U.S. right now who are out of work we could probably hire those people into public health departments and that's how we would build out the workforce we need,” Dr. Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, told ABC News.”

-more at link

 

[madfrank]

Birthday's near the middle of the month. I thought, Good Lord, nearly 30,000! And now....

Ryan Struyk
@ryanstruyk
·
2h
US coronavirus deaths in April
4/1 4780
4/2 5983
4/3 7152
4/4 8496
4/5 9643
4/6 10986
4/7 12895
4/8 14817
4/9 16684
4/10 18758
4/11 20604
4/12 22079
4/13 23649
4/14 26033
4/15 30844
4/16 33268
4/17 37054
4/18 38903
4/19 40677
4/20 42308
4/21 45039
4/22 46688
Now 49887

And there's still a week left.

 

[NJSleuth91]

I do think NY has a faster replicating form. That's one of the most common viral mutations. It doesn't have to change its mechanism of death (in fact, that's a bad idea from the virus's point of view) but to be a successful virus, it does have to reproduce very, very quickly.

NYC doesn't have a faster replicating strain. The R0 for COVID-19 in general is higher than they originally thought (or, originally told us). It was originally estimated at between 2 and 3. Recently they've estimated it at 5.7.
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

It also was most likely here since at least January and probably earlier (and I've been saying that SINCE January). People forget how much travel happens between NYC, Europe, and China, around the holidays.

So far people posting here that they don't think 5% is "all that bad" are almost never countered.

5% is quite a lot, especially as the median age in the US appears to have dropped to about 48-50. That means a lot of 30 and 40 somethings will die (probably 1% of 30 year olds, to balance the 20% of 80+ people who die).

Can you explain where you are getting 5% from? That doesn't fit with the recent antibody tests that say 21.2% of NYC's population has already had it. The estimated death rate is below 1% in that case for NYC. A German antibody testing study also estimated it at only 0.37% (German study shows coronavirus mortality rate of 0.37%, five times lower than widely reported numbers).

Also where are you getting that the median age of people who died of COVID-19 is 48-50? I cannot find anything online that says this. What I've found all says the average death age is between 78 and 81.

The mental health surge is still yet to be seen.

Calls to US helpline jump 891%, as White House is warned of mental health crisis

Domestic violence has increased during coronavirus lockdowns

So, here’s a question for you guys, so why was the first known case of SARS Nov. 18 and the first known case of Covid Nov. 17? Anything about this time of year, November specifically, as related to zoonotic and other environmental factors, that may play a role in the emergence of this disease around this time? Is it just a coincidence?

ETA: I’m curious now what time of year MERS poked its head.

The first case of COVID-19 was probably not November 17th. Italian doctors reported a surge of coronavirus-like cases in Italy in November.

Italian scientists investigate possible earlier emergence of coronavirus

President Trump was just thinking out loud at that moment. Reflects his (and everyone else's) frustrations with all the negative news regarding promising cures recently. BTW, I quit smoking a while ago, I will not use the rest of the nicotine patches. Initially, we were told smokers were at greater risk. Now, it may confer immunity. This advice can change again in a few weeks.

There's a difference between smoking and nicotine. Smoking increases the number of ACE2 receptors in lung cells, which can make coronavirus worse: Why COVID-19 hits smokers harder | Live Science

But, nicotine downregulates ACE2 receptors, and also can prevent a cytokine storm (I actually bought nicotine gum when I was prepping back in February for this reason).
A nicotinic hypothesis for Covid-19 with preventive and therapeutic implications - Article (Preprint v1) | Qeios
Targeting the “Cytokine Storm” for Therapeutic Benefit

 

[Amonet]

So, at the press conference, it was stated that the virus hates light, humidity, heat, etc.

So, maybe we will have a good summer at the beaches?

I didn't see the entirety of the conference, but I would say it depends how much effect there is on the virus at what temperature, etc.

The earlier 'advice/info' on these things was coming from proxy viruses that are similar to the Covid-19 and would therefore have similar qualities. Those ones disliked higher temperatures but needed higher than 40 degrees Celsius to have much of an effect, I think?

So if they've tested this particular virus in various conditions, then that should be better evidence as to *this* virus in various conditions, but conditions vary, don't they? So I think in some ways what could be presented in a presser might not be as thorough as an in depth paper with the test conditions and conclusions?

 

[PommyMommy]

What's happening with treatment trials? What about hydroxychloroquine?

[...]

"With respect to hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, there are anecdotal reports and we've seen one this week that suggests that there is benefit, but also suggests there might not be benefit. These are observational studies. They're not actually clinical trials," said Hahn.

He added that the FDA relies on results of randomized clinical trials, but did take into consideration results from observational studies, which are particularly important for physicians making decisions for their patients.

There is no evidence suggesting coronavirus can be transmitted by food, FDA commissioner says

[...]

"I can give great assurance that the American food supply is safe. We also very much care about our food workers, both in the retail and in the manufacturing setting. So it's really important for folks to follow the CDC guidance in terms of protection. And to the question about getting infection, we have no evidence that the virus, the Covid-19 virus, is transmitted by food or by food packaging," Hahn said.

[...]

US has enough tests for phase one of reopening, coronavirus task force member says

[...]

“We are confident that we have enough tests for phase one of the reopening America plan but we do acknowledge the fact that we need to keep the pressure on developing more tests, getting more tests out there,” White House coronavirus task force member and FDA commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn told CNN during a global town hall on Thursday evening.

[...]

Here are some of your questions, answered

A panel of experts at CNN's ongoing global coronavirus town hall are answering questions sent in by viewers.

If I touch an infected surface and touch my mouth, I could get infected, but you say if I eat contaminated food, I will be fine. How do you explain this?
You won't get sick from eating the virus because it's not a food-borne illness -- it's a respiratory illness, said CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Sanjay Gupta. When you touch your eyes, nose, or mouth, the danger is that you could be infected by inhaling the virus or by touching the mucus membranes in those areas.

[...]

Don't eat or inject yourself with disinfectant, warns FDA commissioner

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump suggested that scientists may want to explore bringing UV light inside the body to kill a Covid-19 infection, or should consider the use of disinfectant that "knocks it out in a minute ... by injection inside or almost a cleaning."

"I certainly wouldn't recommend the internal ingestion of a disinfectant," said US Food and Drug Administration commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn, who is also a member of the White House coronavirus task force.

[...]

Hydroxychloroquine doesn’t work for very sick coronavirus patients, study suggests

[...]

"I think from the review that I heard basically it was not seen as a positive, not seen as a negative," Cuomo said.

The study, sponsored by the New York state Department of Health, looked at about 600 patients at 22 hospitals in the greater New York City area.

[...]

Gov. Cuomo calls for "an army of tracers" to track the spread of coronavirus

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the New York tri-state area will soon require "an army of tracers" to help track the spread of coronavirus in the region.

"A place like New York with so many, we have 250,000 people who tested positive, how do you begin to trace all those contacts where one person can immediately trace down to 10, 20 people?" Cuomo asked during CNN’s global coronavirus town hall Thursday evening. "You're going to need an army of tracers, literally thousands of people who do this."

[...]

Chef Jose Andres: "We have a humanitarian food crisis on our hands"

Since March 14, 26.5 million American have filed unemployment claims seeking financial relief -- and families are struggling to feed themselves.

In Miami, more than 1,000 families slept in their cars to keep their place in line outside a food distribution center. Around 10,000 people showed up to a similar food distribution in San Antonio.

"We have a humanitarian food crisis on our hands," said celebrity chef José Andrés...

[...]

The world is "weeks to months" away from a drug that fights Covid-19, WHO says

[...]

According to one study in Germany, the number of people who have antibodies that show they've had the coronavirus infection ranges from 2% or 3% up to 14% of the population, she said during CNN's coronavirus town hall earlier tonight.

"What’s interesting about this is that these numbers, this seroprevalence, is a lot lower than some of the earlier models had predicted that would have suggested that this virus was circulating a lot more, and that much more of the population was already infected." Van Kerkhove said. "So these studies right now are not actually showing us that."

[...]

April 23 coronavirus news - CNN

 

[PommyMommy]

The US has approved a $480 billion package to help small businesses and hospitals

[...]

Where the money is expected to go: $310 billion will go to the Paycheck Protection Program, which was set up to help small businesses struggling from the economic deep freeze triggered by coronavirus.

Funding for the program ran dry earlier this month, prompting an outcry from the business community.

Some $75 billion will go to hospitals and health care providers to address coronavirus expenses and lost revenue, and $25 billion to facilitate and expand Covid-19 testing.

[...]

Ecuador's coronavirus cases nearly double due to backlog of tests

[...]

The sharp increase was not caused by a new outbreak, health minister Juan Carlos Zevallos said during a news conference on Thursday. Zevallos said it was due to a backlog of tests in the country's laboratories, which left thousands of tests unprocessed.

Ecuador is one of the countries that has been hit hardest by coronavirus in Latin America. The country has the second highest number of cases behind Brazil, where more than 49,000 cases have been confirmed, including 3,313 deaths.

May will be decisive month for New York City, mayor says

Mayor Bill de Blasio said that May will be a "decisive" month for New York City, adding, "I feel very good about things getting substantially back to normal by September."

De Blasio said that "somewhere between, you know, the end of May and the beginning of school is going to be a point where we start to loosen up," speaking on a radio program Thursday.

[...]

The US is approaching 50,000 coronavirus deaths

The United States has reported at least 868,395 cases of the novel coronavirus, including 49,861 related deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.

At least 25,090 new cases and 3,071 deaths have been reported so far on Thursday.

[...]

Hawaii is now paying for visitors to leave

[...]

The Hawaii Tourism Authority has set aside $25,000 for the costs of sending tourists away if they refuse to abide by the state’s 14-day quarantine.

[...]

Nineteen people have been flown back to their airports of origin since the beginning of the outbreak. In some cases, the violators have been prosecuted for misdemeanors and forced to pay a fine.

[...]

For the first time in 40 days, South Korea reports no new coronavirus deaths

[...]

The country also recorded a fourth consecutive day of single-digit new cases, suggesting a potential slowdown of the outbreak.

[...]

The country's government has been among the most ambitious when it comes to providing the public with free and easy testing options. Experts have attributed South Korea's decline in new cases to its early testing efforts, a successful example of what is now commonly referred to as "flattening the curve."

Alaska governor lifts restrictions and warns "there will be deaths"

[...]

Under the loosened restrictions, restaurants can resume table service but are limited to 25% capacity with 10 feet (3 meters) between each table. Only family members can sit together. Salons will accept customers by appointment only.

The city of Anchorage, where 40% of the state's residents live, is putting off the looser restrictions until Monday.

Dunleavy did warn that people shouldn't expect a quick return to ordinary life. "We're preparing for a world in which we have to incorporate this new disease into our daily lives," he said.

[...]

Fauci thanks NFL for following social distancing guidelines with virtual draft

[...]

"I want to commend those involved in these decisions to show that we can have something as important as that in a way that safeguards the life, the safety and the health of the American public by doing the kind of physical separations, doing things virtually, avoiding that kind of contact that puts you at risk," Fauci said in his brief video appearance.

[...]

Coronavirus pandemic: Updates from around the world - CNN

 

[Curious Me]

"2,300 sign up to be infected with coronavirus. Are human-challenge trials a good idea?"

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article242231251.html?

My earlier reply was to question if there'd be life-long health care coverage if a person develops a long term condition from this human trial. It sounds likely for some people to develop serious conditions limiting them for life. Sure, only some, but it'd still be awful for those "some".

This is a short, but informative article. It says the virus "fakes oxygen".

Physician Says COVID-19 Can Have Long-Lasting Impacts on the Healthiest Patients

"Evans said recovering patients could be left with scar tissue buildup in the lungs, which require inhalers and medication for treatment, or worse."

"Other people who have had significant injury or viremia sepsis, those folks end up with kidney injury or maybe even small heart attacks or even small strokes. So this is a very nasty virus."
- Dr. Shawn Evans, Scripps Memorial Hospital La Jolla

 

[firebird]

My earlier reply was to question if there'd be life-long health care coverage if a person develops a long term condition from this human trial. It sounds likely for some people to develop serious conditions limiting them for life. Sure, only some, but it'd still be awful for those "some".

This is a short, but informative article. It says the virus "fakes oxygen".

Physician Says COVID-19 Can Have Long-Lasting Impacts on the Healthiest Patients

"Evans said recovering patients could be left with scar tissue buildup in the lungs, which require inhalers and medication for treatment, or worse."

"Other people who have had significant injury or viremia sepsis, those folks end up with kidney injury or maybe even small heart attacks or even small strokes. So this is a very nasty virus."
- Dr. Shawn Evans, Scripps Memorial Hospital La Jolla

There is no current human trial. If you read the links in the article, it's entirely hypothetical

 

[firebird]

Birthday's near the middle of the month. I thought, Good Lord, nearly 30,000! And now....

Ryan Struyk
@ryanstruyk
·
2h
US coronavirus deaths in April
4/1 4780
4/2 5983
4/3 7152
4/4 8496
4/5 9643
4/6 10986
4/7 12895
4/8 14817
4/9 16684
4/10 18758
4/11 20604
4/12 22079
4/13 23649
4/14 26033
4/15 30844
4/16 33268
4/17 37054
4/18 38903
4/19 40677
4/20 42308
4/21 45039
4/22 46688
Now 49887

And there's still a week left.

I don't see any links in his tweets for any of this.

 

[MyBelle]

When I first saw the image of the buses being disinfected, I was impressed. But the more I think about it, it may not be effective at all, done just to make people feel better about using crowded public transit. The reason I am skeptical is this - in most motor vehicles there are numerous components, besides the tires, that are rubber or plastic and very vulnerable to UV degradation. The type of UV needed for disinfection would likely degrade many vehicle components. In hot climates, tires degrade faster from UV. The UVC that has germicidal properties should accelerate that kind of degradation quickly, if not instantaneously, so I’m skeptical.... Window gaskets, tires, dashboards, steering wheels, ducts, brake fluid tubing? Why wouldn’t it be damaged beyond repair?

BBM. If I was a bus passenger, I wouldn't be touching dashboards, tires, ducts, brake fluid tubing. There are multiple news articles discussing the technology. I doubt it would be used if it damaged the buses beyond repair.

China Fights Virus With Ultraviolet Light

 

[SoCalDavidS]

Birthday's near the middle of the month. I thought, Good Lord, nearly 30,000! And now....

Now 49887

And there's still a week left.

My Birthday is May 23. I expect the total to reach 100K before that.

 

[firebird]

My Birthday is May 23. I expect the total to reach 100K before that.

.o3 percent of the entire US population? Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me.

 

[NJSleuth91]

This is a short, but informative article. It says the virus "fakes oxygen".

Physician Says COVID-19 Can Have Long-Lasting Impacts on the Healthiest Patients

I can't stand how ridiculous these articles have gotten. "Fakes oxygen"? That's an absolutely meaningless statement. He could have given an actual explanation, but no.

BTW, here are the actual proposed explanations for what is happening:
How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes

"It’s possible that at some stages of disease, the virus alters the delicate balance of hormones that help regulate blood pressure and constricts blood vessels going to the lungs. So oxygen uptake is impeded by constricted blood vessels, rather than by clogged alveoli."

"And Frontera and others wonder whether in some cases, infection depresses the brain stem reflex that senses oxygen starvation. This is another explanation for anecdotal observations that some patients aren’t gasping for air, despite dangerously low blood oxygen levels."

Unfortunately, the article with these quotes also engages in some ridiculousness of its own, as it dramatically states that COVID-19 "acts like no pathogen humanity has ever seen." Then literally everything stated in the article is behavior that has been observed in many other viruses -- and for that matter, most of it was observed in SARS 1.

I think this is just a symptom of the larger problem of science illiteracy among most people, though. So much of the misinformation going around comes from that...and the media capitalizes on it.

 

[Curious Me]

There is no current human trial. If you read the links in the article, it's entirely hypothetical

Well, that's a relief for now.
I remember in the beginning when the virus was first hitting the U.S. that there were people already announcing they'd sign up for a human trial if they were paid.

This article says it's important that people under 50 yrs. old get medical help sooner. Some wait too long and are left with damage for life. I was going to buy oximeters as gifts for my sons, and didn't. Now, oximeters aren't available.

Physician Says COVID-19 Can Have Long-Lasting Impacts on the Healthiest Patients

"It [the virus] actually fakes if you will, oxygen and because there is less oxygen being transported, it is very subtle in the early phases of the disease," Evans explained.

Stay safe. Good Night Everyone.

 

[cass523]

I read about Dr Savino, an ER doctor admitted to the hospital April 4th. I am really happy to read that he survived this virus, especially after all this family has been through.

COVID-19 patient — and ER doctor — Mike Savino was just happy to be released from Jersey Shore University Medical Center, and get a slice of pizza. What he never expected to see was a parade of his Holmdel neighbors lining his street when he got home.

Dr. Savino's homecoming was an especially emotional relief for a family that was devastated by the 2017 death of their third child, 2-year-old Vienna, due to what became classified as sudden unexplained death in childhood or SUDC. Then, this past November, his wife's sister passed away from stage 4 urinary tract cancer.

Dr. Savino thinks he picked up the virus in late March at the North Jersey hospital where he works. He battled his illness for 12 days at home, where his condition steadily deteriorated. By the time he was gasping for air, he and his wife, also a physician, decided he needed to go to the hospital. He was kept there for a week.

Savino, 48, is one of the lucky ones: He did not need a ventilator, was given high-flow oxygen and experimental drugs. This past Saturday morning, he was discharged.

Savino was appreciative of the nurses who lined the halls applauding his exit, and of the music piped over the public address system for his discharge: “Here Comes the Sun” by the Beatles.

Michael Savino during the peak of his battle with COVID-19

Michael Savino upon being dropped off at Jersey Shore University Medical Center April 4.

There are a few videos he posted while battling this virus

Coronavirus NJ: Holmdel ER doctor comes home after life-threatening battle

Must-See Video: Neighbors Cheer Holmdel Doc Who Beat Coronavirus

 

[Lilibet]

I don't see any links in his tweets for any of this.

Here are a couple...the second one says we’ve passed 50,000 deaths.

Coronavirus map of the US: latest cases state by state

Coronavirus Dashboard

 

[Cool Cats]

Exclusive: Over 30 Amazon employees test positive for COVID-19 at warehouse outside NYC

MAKES NO SENSE:

Amazon set to end 'unlimited unpaid time off' policy

"..The company's $2-an-hour increase for hazard pay is also set to expire.. "

 

[tresir2012]

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.

Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.

Rest at link