Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #54

[jjenny]

By the way blood pressure drugs don't appear to be dangerous to take during covid. I know some people were wondering about it.
"A new study has reassured medical professionals and patients alike that common drugs for lowering blood pressure are not linked to an increased risk of COVID-19."
No link between hypertension drugs and COVID-19 risk, study rules

 

[musicaljoke]

Again, just like China with 24/7 crematoriums trying to deal with the dead.

Yes, or any city where more people die each day than what can be handled by the burial services and crematoriums. Running 24/7, one crematorium can handle 16-20 bodies a day. Five years ago, when Gramma died, it took a week to have her ashes come back to us. There was a backlog in normal times.

New York crematories overwhelmed by the number of dead get volunteer help - CNN

 

[Inthedetails]

I heard this comment today:

"We need to pull everyone over the finish line."

YES! I just love that image of cooperation.

We aren't "winners" if we as individuals cross the finish line by surviving the pandemic. We "win" when we get as many people as possible over the finish line. (And we can all help by social distancing.)

jmo.

 

[firebird]

Update:

In reversal, Arizona announces 'ongoing partnership' with university coronavirus modeling experts
In reversal, Arizona announces 'ongoing partnership' with university coronavirus modeling experts

I could live without more "modeling." Especially from ASU.

 

[musicaljoke]

Well, I have not been feeling well this week. Started on Sunday with an attack of acid reflux (woke me up!). I said if I wasn't better today, I'd make a Dr's appt. No appetite, headache, stomach discomfort, some nausea. When I got to Dr, they had me wait outside b/c of the headache symptom. The Dr. called me back in full riot gear. Never saw a nurse at all. B/c of my headache, and low-grade temp (they took it 4 times!) and my job (Home day care provider), the Dr. strongly advised I get tested for Corona. It wasn't as unpleasant as I expected. Got a nasopharyngeal swab and a throat swab. She thinks the two together are most accurate.

Do I think I have Corona? Not really, but how can one know? I don't have any cough or breathing issues. People are frequently presenting with gastric symptoms. So we shall see. The bad part for me: I can't work until the test comes back neg, so lots of people needing to find alternate day care for several days. I also help with a couple of elderly neighbors, so will not be able to do that either :*( Dr. thinks the test results should be back no later than Mon. Til then, I'm isolating in my master bedroom (has attached bath). Still not wanting to eat. I got an RX for Pepcid. Keep me in your prayers.

Sally, I hope you feel better very soon, and that Covid comes nowhere near you. I hope that you are not too sick to laugh, but when I started reading your message, I thought you were going to say you were pregnant. Please keep getting better. Thank you for isolating. Do you have someone to take care of you?

 

[otto]

I could live without more "modeling." Especially from ASU.

I've said it before, but I would prefer that we hear the facts as they are today, not crystal ball predictions about the future. We're smart enough to look at what has happened and figure out what will most likely come next.

 

[The Night Watchman]

Stanford University Covid forecast model can be found at

Extended Results COVID-19

Choose a state to see the coming forecast curve.

I compared this curve for Arizona after reading the ASU story. Appears that the curve here is consistent. Anything above 25% uptick in social distancing keeps them on the exponential curve.

This is the research paper discussing the forecast methodology.
https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/sird-paper.pdf

Also placing this post in the science thread.

Great reference, thanks.

What the H-E-(double hockey stick) is going on in Sweden? The models shows they are well past the peak and will suppress in a month.

They are doing much better than Massachusetts, but why? I don't know.

 

[jjenny]

Great reference, thanks.

What the (double hockey stick) is going on in Sweden? The models shows they are well past the peak and will suppress in a month.

They are doing much better than Massachusetts, but why? I don't know.

New York is past the peak also. Maybe infection rate is getting so high there is some herd immunity taking place?

 

[branmuffin]

I'm surprised. It was a long time ago that Mexico was objecting to tourists from the North - claiming they were importing the virus. Mexico had ample time to prepare and take good measures. However, it's possible that they have the same factor that we see in some higher risk populations in the USA and the UK - they live as multigenerational families in one home. That seems to be a factor with increased cases.

Plus they had a president who was still walking around in public kissing babies and nearly half the country lives in poverty.

Mexico has moved to 'Phase 3' — its most serious level of coronavirus alert — and faces a looming outbreak. Here's how it got to this point.

 

[CoolJ]

I applaud the leaders of the countries who have done the right thing for their citizens. i.e......putting country before self.

As a Canadian, I applaud the leadership of the USA.
Things could have been so much worse.

 

[musicaljoke]

I applaud the leaders of the countries who have done the right thing for their citizens. i.e......putting country before self.

Indeed. It takes a true leader to do the right thing, to be humble when seeking direction and advice from learned guides, to abandon their own personal interests and political aspirations, to lead with compassion for the sick and comfort those who mourn, to offer gratitude for the workers, to help the poor, and to give all their people guidance, determination and hope they need to get the difficult days behind us.

 

[The Night Watchman]

New York is past the peak also. Maybe infection rate is getting so high there is some herd immunity taking place?

IIRC, Stockholm may have a ~25% current or past infection percentage of the population (per BBC). 70% is usually referenced when discussing herd immunity and coronavirus. So not really close, but this 25% level can slow R0, the contagion rate for coronavirus.

In the U.S. there are at least 10x more people with CV than have actually been tested positive, as determined from antibody testing. Many of these people were asymptomatic and did not know they had CV, but could still spread it- and more than likely these are younger people. Many younger college, and 20 and 30s "kids" that I know went home to stay with their larger family during the shutdown.

We may find that this was a big mistake. All initial CV models showed CV suppressing far faster than it did, and it has only really just started to suppress. How could this have happened if only CV negative people sheltered in place?

Because IMO, a large number of infectious people sheltered in place with non-infected people.

 

[CoolJ]

I have a hunch, admittedly without any real data to back it up, that this virus has been working its way around the world since early Nov 2019.

I believe the mortality rate to be infinitely smaller than is being reported.

 

[Trino]

I have a hunch, admittedly without any real data to back it up, that this virus has been working its way around the world since early Nov 2019.

I believe the mortality rate to be infinitely smaller than is being reported.

Isn't there an actual body count in the US?

 

[BUF]

If interested, Dr. Birx is coming up on CNN townhall on Coronavirus

 

[CoolJ]

Isn't there an actual body count in the US?

I am speaking of mortality rate.

 

[LadyL]

1 - yes
2 - already started
3 - figure out a way to get a steady supply of my crack (silk soy milk and strawberry frosted mini wheats)
4- cleaning supplies look to be iffy
5 - That this is a lot like defensive driving. Main goal is to avoid dangerous idiots

[bbm]

lol

cashew milk and brown sugar mini-wheats here

 

[LadyL]

California identifies nail salons as source of coronavirus community spread, Gov. Newsom says

there's a surprise ... not

 

[heartgoesout]

I know of one person (Florida) whom was hospitalized, and is now doing fine. MOO

So glad to hear they are better.

 

[heartgoesout]

I’m curious how many of you know someone who tested positive and that person(s) ended up in the hospital. I don’t know anyone. I’m in a hot spot outside of a major hot spot.

I've asked this question on multiple social media platforms. The overwhelming answer is almost no one knows someone who tested positive and even less that know someone hospitalized. I don't see any social media posts asking for prayers for a friend or loved one either.