Sadly theres not a whole lot to go on in terms of what is released to the public.
Appearently theres a good deal more info that police are sitting on and to try to analyze this case, without pertinent info would aquait to nothing more than an educated guess
Without certain questions answered such as sexual assault indication (which is also usually the case), Cause of death, forensic findings etc.. its purely speculative .
But some things to ponder that I would if I were working this case,
Id want a victimology assessment done on the girls for reasons Ill explain later
The manner of death is unknown at this time, in order to wean out false claims, i have a feeling I know how they were killed, but I wont elaborate until LE releases it
I agree with the FBI that the individual most likely lives in the Delphi area, id even venture to say possibly in the area of the park itself they usually do
So please take this as such , But to give perhaps a different spin
If i were investigating this , My first question : How did the offender initially come into contact with the victims?
Delphi Indiana has a crime rate equal to most other areas
Delphi has an overall
crime rate of 15 per 1,000 residents, making the
crime rate here near the average for all cities and towns of all sizes in America. According to our analysis of FBI
crime data, your chance of becoming a victim of
crime in
Delphi is 1 in 69. (
Delphi Crime Rates and Statistics - NeighborhoodScout.)
With a population of 2882 in (2017) The area averages only around 5 violent crimes in any given year. Which indicates crimes more along the lines of theft and property crimes,
Hoever the odds of one becoming a victim of a crime in Delphi is roughly 1 in 578 pere 2020 data (
Delphi Crime Rates and Statistics - NeighborhoodScout.)
Without knowing anything about the victims background its tough to assess things like risk taking behaviors by the girls, I can say they were walking across a bridge the looked pretty high with no safety rail but I cant say for sure, without a real assessment.
However the girls parents seemed fine with the girls going off on their own , at 1:30 pm approx indicating at least a palpable sense of comfort and safety in allowing the girls to go alone on their day off from school (It was a thursday I believe). This may have been furthered by the knowledge that the girls had a cell phone with them and would be picked up approx 2 hours after.
I cant say whether or not their parents knew there was such a bridge there but then again im not sure how high were talking , but it looked like a potential fatal fall in the pictures I saw , nonetheless
In this case, there are 3 possibilities and each one has a different possibility of what type of indivdual may be responsible
1) He was there for a legitimate reason and of his own accord and simply came upon the girls by chance , MOST cases of abduction homicides of children are exactly that, wherein the victims are merely victims of opportunity.
2) He observed the girls from some vantage point at some time and decided to follow them, this could be simply walking by, living near the area.
3) He knew they would be there, or knew they
were there
If we look at scenario 1), in which the offender was there on his own , and came across the girls by chance you have to ask what he was doing there?, in most cases, of child abduction murder, the offender lives/works nearby, is in the area for what is a "Legit reason" he may traverse that area , but he usually lives and or works in the area .
They usually comes upon his (I Use the male indication here because the overwhelming majority are) victims by chance. the only thing that makes someone his chosen victim, is that they are alone.
Physical attributes with these type offenses usually contribute little to the victim selection process.
In terms of risk it was extremely high risk for the offender to accost 2 victims without knowing who may have been in the around unless he knew he'd be able to control more than one, that indicates not only that the offender had some level of comfort in the area, but he had some way to institute control over more than 1 person (Weapon , or possibly a sign of authority such as badge) .
This is where the victimology assessment is invaluable , were the girls such that fear by simply a show of aggression by an adult male would cause them to go with a stranger,were they the overly trusting type(s) who would beleive a ruse to get them to follow someone they didnt know? (this is equally important), what about someone they mightve known? would they go with a local they perhaps knew (or knew of)somewhat ?
If so that changes things around a lot.
If not then we have to assume he had a weapon and or some manner restrainting device on him which changes the profile of the type of individual involved yet again
Its been my feeling that simce this occurred that the individual had a weapon, though I cant say for sure, but to control 2 adolescent girls in an area where they may scream and attract attention he either forced them to walk under threat of violence, they went willingly with him because he knew them or perhaps he identified himself as a position of authority.
But to murder 2 girls when one may run during , lends me to beleive he either restrained them, or he incapacitated one to assault another then killed her too .
The shortest route between where its estimates they were last seen and where they are found seems to indicate about .5 milesm, and at some point they possibly walked through water. Or through dry ares in the creek bed.
Again "hey guys follow me down the hill" or "go down the hill" could have different meanings
Investigative considerations : Was there any similar crimes in that area? anyone suspicious in the area? any reports of anyone being followed ?
Did he lure them there then spring it on them once they were where he felt he could ?, or did he walk up to them and force them someplace he felt safe under threat?
Another possibility is false ID,
Producing a weapon or form of ID (Law enforcement) or both is another possibility.
The issue there is you have to get 2 scared girls half a mile away , and runs the chance of one or both of the victims at some point screaming for help, and theres a chance they did, but thats a HUGE risk for the offender.
Its by no means out of the range of possibility and is about 50/50 in this case, that is what he did, fear is a powerful motivator.
However "you guys wanna see something cool?" or "Police officer I need you guys to come with me " Its also possible.
The motive for this type of case is usually overwhelmingly sexual, the manner of death could shed a little more light onit better, but speaking in terms of statistics, its usually a landslide .
The offenders in these type of cases, are usually around 27-35 years of age at the time of offense , time incarcerated can alter that however. The individual is usually unemployed, or underemployed at the time of offense , though in most abduction murders of kids, triggering factors play a minimal , almost non existent role, the abduction and murder of 2 girls in a public place, albeit wooded and secluded, lends me to beleive there was some precipitating stress, beforehand.
These individuals are usually well known oddballs in the community they are loners, with few friends, sometimes labelled as "Social Marginals" .
They will have a history of failed relationships, often some established criminal history, and have often already been investigated by police.
They may interject themselves into the investigation by some means, and will often follow (usually to an obvious level ) the crime in the media
(investigative consideration: Sudden intense and unusual intertest in a case, in which their time during cannot be acounted for, and odd ever changing behavior following , changes in appearence, weight , appetite, general anxiety, sudden illness, increased use of intoxicants, sleep issues, destroying hiding items of clothes, altering or getting rid of a vehicle interior or exterior)
In many cases, they are suspected to some extent by people around them, but its never brought out for some reason or another.
One thing Im failrly certain of is that the murder scene and the recovery site are likely the same . Indicating a great level of comfort in that area where they were recovered. They recovery sites are usually the most familiar to the offender.
Because double murderers don't usually just pop up (thankfully) this individual almost CERTAINLY has a criminal past of some sort, which as some point in his life most likely involves sexual crimes and young females.
Theres often several unexpected moves to new residences, throughout his life, in most cases, 1 within 12 months prior to the offense.
Most of them work in blue collar Labor type industries, most often construction type jobs. they usually Live with parents or to a lesser extent a a significant other.
Whether or not the victims were bound would be another extremely important factor for 2 reasons
1) It indicated planning and forethought
2) Binding of child sexual murder victims is often a trait seen in repeat offenders (IE Serial killers)
If they were id venture to think it was something like handcuffs that he could hide on his person, but this also means the offender is a different type of offender than the guy who just happens upon the victims making his daily rounds.
I will refrain from speaking on manner of death as LE is keeping it under wraps, and there are to many possibilites that would lead us to pure speculation
Once hes commited the offense he needs to get out of the area, unseen , the maps shown show few residences in the area so its possble he had a vehicle nearby, or he knew a way out where he wouldnt be seen which indicatesd further 2 things,
1) familiarity with the area
2) Lives, close.
As I said earlier thers a thirs possibility of how he came into contact with the 2 girls , He either knew they would be there, or knew they were there.
How?
Did the girls disclose to anyone they were going that day?, we cant know for sure, but one thing we do know is that Libby did post a photo showing her friend with literally not a soul in sight behind her in instagram. For a sexually deviant offender who lives nearby who perhaps follows her account that may've been like ringing the dinner bell . todays investigators have to scrutinize things such as media accounts because as we know all to well lives have been lost because of it.
In the picture where we see Abby standing on the bridge, we dont see anyone else approaching (that I can tell) , ther eare dark shapes but none appear to be human.
Then within perhaps 30 min the offender appears and walks up to them and theyre gone to their fate.
Another thing , I wouldnt make much of his gait the way he walks is hindered by the fact hes steping on the railroad ties. But SOMEONE knows someone who looks like him and cant account for his time that day, even if he can.
Its a long shot, but it cant be ruled out given what info we have from the media .
Hope this opens up a few new possibilities for those following
thanks
