Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #66

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KALI said:
Sold my beloved little sailboat today.
Why? Money.
Our restaurant business, and many other businesses here in San Diego were closed down again today for another minimum of 3 weeks.
Yes, we can do take out and outside dining. However, those rules lesson our income again, by 30 to 40%.
Restaurants operate on about a 10% margin. Sooooo, we're again looking at a loss of up to 30% per month.
Fortunately, we have a large outside open air, uncovered patio.
I am very concerned about when our weather turns cold, usually November. How are we supposed to protect our customers, will they even come in when it's too cold or wet to sit on our patio?
I refuse to take any of our meager savings and plow it back into our business as we go through this.
I want to add to our savings so that, if we have to leave, we've got a cushion.
I have to make hard decisions for hard times.
Click to expand...
I'm so sorry to hear this.
 
KALI said:
Sold my beloved little sailboat today.
Why? Money.
Our restaurant business, and many other businesses here in San Diego were closed down again today for another minimum of 3 weeks.
Yes, we can do take out and outside dining. However, those rules lesson our income again, by 30 to 40%.
Restaurants operate on about a 10% margin. Sooooo, we're again looking at a loss of up to 30% per month.
Fortunately, we have a large outside open air, uncovered patio.
I am very concerned about when our weather turns cold, usually November. How are we supposed to protect our customers, will they even come in when it's too cold or wet to sit on our patio?
I refuse to take any of our meager savings and plow it back into our business as we go through this.
I want to add to our savings so that, if we have to leave, we've got a cushion.
I have to make hard decisions for hard times.
Click to expand...

Oh Kali, that is so sad for you. Yes, hard decisions are what business owners are making now. You sound as though you are sensibly preparing for what may be to come.
I hope the sun shines again for you soon ... and perhaps another little sailboat will be waiting for you then.
 
Reasonable & Just said:
It would be great if it does work, and it certainly has some adherents in the medical community. The most recent work from Ford seems to show confounding effects of steroids, and as pointed out, has not been peer-reviewed. But it's another piece of the puzzle, and worth examining. It is bizarre that it has been politicized - a politician shouldn't be pitching any drugs, and any "vindication" (not that science really works that way) would be for the doctor who told them about it in the first place - not the politician who is definitely not an expert. Strange times indeed. But let's hope this additional research brings us closer to to understanding how to treat this disease. JMO.
Click to expand...

A lot more study is needed - but it would appear that HCQ is good for patients in a particular category (where CoVid is attacking that and not this. IOW, just as the study states, there was a protocol for who got what. Obviously, a larger study that's randomized is needed - but this study would certainly show that for a subset of patients, HCQ or HCQ + AZ works much better than nothing. If a patient didn't have pneumonia to begin with, I assume they went into the HCQ only pile.

If a patient has no pneumonia and no cardiovascular abnormalities, does HCQ work better than nothing? (They're already in pretty good shape, comparatively speaking).

If we're going to look at this type of study (what doctors decide works for CoVid, without control groups), here's a really interesting drug combo:

Dual-Histamine Blockade with Cetirizine - Famotidine Reduces Pulmonary Symptoms in COVID-19 Patients

The effects were almost as good as with the drugs in the HCQ study. Note that in this study, HCQ was correlated with the worst outcomes.

But two other common drugs seemed to help. So it's either a roll of the dice which doctor you get OR you have a plan for yourself. In the study just cited, the two drugs resulted in less intubation, less progression of the disease, less mortality (unless HCQ was used).

Perhaps it's one or the other? For those of us with heart issues (congenital arrhythmia here, so would have been excluded from HCQ group in the first study), this other cocktail may work better. At any rate, lots of us aren't candidates for HCQ (be sure they include Zinc if they do offer it - and be sure they checked your ECG).
 
KALI said:
Sold my beloved little sailboat today.
Why? Money.
Our restaurant business, and many other businesses here in San Diego were closed down again today for another minimum of 3 weeks.
Yes, we can do take out and outside dining. However, those rules lesson our income again, by 30 to 40%.
Restaurants operate on about a 10% margin. Sooooo, we're again looking at a loss of up to 30% per month.
Fortunately, we have a large outside open air, uncovered patio.
I am very concerned about when our weather turns cold, usually November. How are we supposed to protect our customers, will they even come in when it's too cold or wet to sit on our patio?
I refuse to take any of our meager savings and plow it back into our business as we go through this.
I want to add to our savings so that, if we have to leave, we've got a cushion.
I have to make hard decisions for hard times.
Click to expand...

I worry so much about you. I have a friend who has also had to d/c her boat. :(

I think by November, new regs will be in place - and if you can keep your indoor room relatively warm without using ventilated heating (draft control?) people will come. People will be happier to come closer to the holidays and after everyone has a chance to deal with whatever is going to happen when kids go back to school.

People want to travel and dine out, for sure. For us, when we do decide to order take-out, we don't even care if the price is higher - as we're doing it less frequently.

IMHE predicts things will be better by November anyway (since this isn't seasonal).
 
WHO reviewing evidence on airborne transmission of Covid-19

WHO reviewing evidence on airborne transmission of Covid-19

Anne Gulland

10 hrs ago
...
The World Health Organization (WHO) is reviewing a report that suggested its advice on the novel coronavirus needs updating, after scientists wrote an open letter saying there was evidence the virus could be spread by tiny particles in the air.

The WHO says Covid-19 spreads primarily through small droplets, which are expelled from the nose and mouth when an infected person breaths them out in coughs, sneezes, speech or laughter and quickly sink to the ground.

In an open letter published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, 239 scientists in 32 countries outlined the evidence they say shows that smaller exhaled particles can infect people who inhale them, the newspaper said on Saturday.
Because those smaller particles can linger in the air longer, the scientists are urging WHO to update its guidance.
 
JerseyGirl said:
President Trump "is enabling the virus," New York governor says

Responding to President Trump’s unfounded claim that 99% of coronavirus cases are "totally harmless,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo criticized him for “enabling the virus.”

“What he’s saying to the American people is that there's no problem. And then they don’t wear a mask, and they don’t socially distance, and hey don’t take any precautionary behavior and then the virus goes like this,” Cuomo said. “He is facilitating the virus. He is enabling the virus by [making] statements like that. And you're seeing the infection rate go up and you’re seeing the economy suffer."

"He is part of that current debacle that we are in,” he added. The governor cited President Trump’s various prior claims about the Covid-19 that have been proven wrong and his refusal to wear a mask to say that the President wants to “deny the Covid virus.”

“He won't wear a mask. Vice President Pence says, 'wear a mask.' All the health officials say, 'wear the mask.' He won't wear a mask because he doesn't want to admit that there is a Covid virus. Why? I have no idea," Cuomo added.

Cuomo added that the way to combat coronavirus is by first admitting that there is a problem.

“You will never solve a problem in life that you refuse to admit. Why he refuses to admit it I have no idea. You have a White House coronavirus task force. Why have a task force if there's no problem?”

Coronavirus pandemic: Updates from around the world
Click to expand...
Denny Crane. MOO.
 
KALI said:
Sold my beloved little sailboat today.
Why? Money.
Our restaurant business, and many other businesses here in San Diego were closed down again today for another minimum of 3 weeks.
Yes, we can do take out and outside dining. However, those rules lesson our income again, by 30 to 40%.
Restaurants operate on about a 10% margin. Sooooo, we're again looking at a loss of up to 30% per month.
Fortunately, we have a large outside open air, uncovered patio.
I am very concerned about when our weather turns cold, usually November. How are we supposed to protect our customers, will they even come in when it's too cold or wet to sit on our patio?
I refuse to take any of our meager savings and plow it back into our business as we go through this.
I want to add to our savings so that, if we have to leave, we've got a cushion.
I have to make hard decisions for hard times.
Click to expand...
That's the worst news I've heard all day!!

I know how much you enjoyed getting away and just being on your sailboat.

Just when you think things can't get any worse, your business is going to start booming. People will flock from all over the country to eat at your restaurant. By next year, you'll be telling us about the charming yacht you just bought.
 
Almost everyone in my town is now wearing a mask. I see more personal masks that look professionally made but overall it's mostly the blue ones. I've been wearing one since the end of May. Before we finally found some commercial masks we were wearing homemade ones from neck scarfs.

All grocery stores, home improvement stores, Walmarts and newly opened stores like Winners have signs restricting the number of people in store, request you take a cart to maintain social distancing. You get the odd jerk who vocalizes how we are all sheep for wearing masks or try to bully the kid ensuring people only go in the store when another customer leaves to let them in because THEY are in a hurry.

My husband and I actually went out for dinner on Thursday night at the golf course. Only three tables on each deck at least 8 feet apart. We sat facing the golf course and no one other than one wait staff came closer than 6 feet. It felt fantastic to be outside enjoying the beautiful evening and hearing the peepers and glimpsing the lake through the trees. My fish and chips tasted like the best I'd ever had even without HP sauce!

This weekend we saw a huge influx of cottagers and vacationers coming to cottage country. Lots of locals are leery of them, especially the younger ones who arrive en masse and never wear masks or social distance. We've been doing great here with flattening the curve to almost non-existent numbers but now we are expecting an upturn in cases.

Wasaga Beach was packed, as was Grand Bend and any lake with a shoreline for the public. Lots of towns are restricting beach access to town residents only, which is very difficult to police, since visitors park their cars away from the beaches and walk to the lake. And a new public health menace are individuals who bring their own tents and use them on the beach as a latrine. Ugh.
 
Reasonable & Just said:
True. So I don't accept anything anything at face value out of China. No one I know does, either. And ditto for any authoritarian government's assertions about pandemic numbers - such as Turkey, ally or not. Dictators love to use a blend of unrealistic optimism alongside vilification of the "other". It works really well on some of the citizenry and helps puff them up in front of other countries.



Exactly. Always question the pandemic numbers, especially when the free press is vilified.
Click to expand...

Uhm, reminds me

Chen Qiushi and Fang Bin

fang bin - بحث Google
chen qiushi - بحث Google

Both were
Dissappereared February 6 2020,
Going on 5 months now.
 
This interesting study from the UK was cited in a WaPo article. It challenges the fatalistic assumption that those older ones who die of Covid were going to die anyway. Although that’s true (we’re all going to die eventually), the question is: “How many years did they lose dying of Covid-19.” This study attempts to calculate the answer to that question.

The methodology and details are way over my head and mental energy to expend deciphering, so I hope @10ofRods will weigh in. But essentially it is trying to determine the Years of Life Lost for those who have died of Covid-19 after adjusting for Long-Term Conditions as described in the Abstract below. Even after adjusting for age and number of Long-Term Conditions (comorbidities), the mean Years of Life Lost was 13 years for men and 11 for women. Obviously the older you are and the more long-term conditions (diabetes, COPD, hypertension, obesity, dementia, etc) you have, the fewer years you would lose if you died of Covid-19. But for most of us with just a couple of conditions we would have lost a lot of years...years I suspect most of us would rather not lose.

Abstract:
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for increasing deaths globally. Most estimates have focused on numbers of deaths, with little direct quantification of years of life lost (YLL) through COVID-19. As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some have speculated that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs.

Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using standard WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs to model likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. From these, we used routine UK healthcare data to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/different combinations of LTCs. We then calculated YLL based on age, sex and type of LTCs and multimorbidity count.

Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6). Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.

https://d212y8ha88k086.cloudfront.n...nalCollections=0&numberOfBrowsableGateways=13
 
Last edited:
Tippy Lynn said:
I think the entire world is grasping at anything hoping it will work.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. No shame in wanting something. However, I think it is not responsible to promote something to the public without consulting with experts.

Probably better to say, “Hey, we are working hard. Here’s a treatment that apparently indicates that it might help some patients. Let’s keep working on it.”
 
Reasonable & Just said:
Amen to that. And there are doctors that swear by it. So let's cautiously keep the scientific toolbox open and look at all the info.


A bit more info, for what it's worth...: Study finds hydroxychloroquine helped coronavirus patients survive better - CNN

"Kalkanis said that their findings do not necessarily contradict those of earlier studies. "We also want to make the point that just because our results differ from some others that may have been published, it doesn't make those studies wrong or definitely a conflict. What it simply means is that by looking at the nuanced data of which patients actually benefited and when, we might be able to further unlock the code of how this disease works," he said.

Researchers not involved with the study were critical. They noted that the Henry Ford team did not randomly treat patients but selected them for various treatments based on certain criteria.
"As the Henry Ford Health System became more experienced in treating patients with COVID-19, survival may have improved, regardless of the use of specific therapies," Dr. Todd Lee of the Royal Victoria Hospital in Montreal, Canada, and colleagues wrote in a commentary in the same journal.

"Finally, concomitant steroid use in patients receiving hydroxychloroquine was more than double the non-treated group. This is relevant considering the recent RECOVERY trial that showed a mortality benefit with dexamethasone." The steroid dexamethasone can reduce inflammation in seriously ill patients.

Rosenberg also pointed out that the Detroit paper excluded 267 patients -- nearly 10% of the study population -- who had not yet been discharged from the hospital.
He said this might have skewed the results to make hydroxychloroquine look better than it really was. Those patients might have still been in the hospital because they were very sick, and if they died, excluding them from the study made hydroxychloroquine look like more of a lifesaver than it really was."


It will be interesting to see the authors' responses to these critiques as it all plays out in the journal letters.
Click to expand...

Ugh. But why would they do that? Why would they be hell bent on proving an ineffective drug, is effective? That’s seems crazy to me.
 
KALI said:
Sold my beloved little sailboat today.
Why? Money.
Our restaurant business, and many other businesses here in San Diego were closed down again today for another minimum of 3 weeks.
Yes, we can do take out and outside dining. However, those rules lesson our income again, by 30 to 40%.
Restaurants operate on about a 10% margin. Sooooo, we're again looking at a loss of up to 30% per month.
Fortunately, we have a large outside open air, uncovered patio.
I am very concerned about when our weather turns cold, usually November. How are we supposed to protect our customers, will they even come in when it's too cold or wet to sit on our patio?
I refuse to take any of our meager savings and plow it back into our business as we go through this.
I want to add to our savings so that, if we have to leave, we've got a cushion.
I have to make hard decisions for hard times.
Click to expand...

This is terrible, friend. I have noticed that many restaurants are creating outside dining. Like Denny’s near my home has taken over their parking lot. But I realize it’s not as much seating for many restaurants. And many don’t have the room to create outdoor seating at all.

I’m hopeful that things are much better by November. But I realize hope doesn’t pay the bills.
 
You try to do the right thing, sigh.
Was at a pharmacy today, paid for my things, turned around to leave and there was an old lady with her head over my shoulder, grrr.
Nobody seemed to be keeping any distance at all. Groups of people taking up the whole footpath , forcing a few people to walk on the road, CBD area.
 
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