Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #68

[Trino]

NYTimes: 69 page internal CDC document deems schools fully reopening as the "highest risk" for spread of the coronavirus.

As Trump Demanded Schools Reopen, His Experts Warned of ‘Highest Risk’

Under the photo (your source) was the following statement: The task force’s suggestions for mitigating the risk of school openings would be expensive and difficult.Credit...Audra Melton for The New York Times. How much are our children worth???

So poor, sick areas get poorer and sicker. We all pay taxes. Those $$$ should be coming back to support us.


Very, very well said.

And how said is it that I saw the annual number of murders and was surprised at how low it is - honestly, I would have guessed in the hundreds of thousands, so I appreciate the perspective. And now it's just that much more depressing to see how many of us have died in a matter of months.

But...our government needs to step up with ideas and a proper use of our tax dollars. There is no reason for our nation's economy to die, too.

So, a second stimulus is coming? Well, that's the rumor. Why isn't there money for schools to implement coronavirus standards?

 

[Trino]

Here's another, for California that now has had most businesses shut down again today.
California has a population of over 39.5 million people.
As of today, according to The Los Angeles times, we have 333,356 people positive for COVID-19.
39.5 million people, divided by 333,356. equals a positive infection rate of 0.0084393924.
Assuming, the undiagnosed is at 2%, that would equate to 790,000.
Meaning that 98% of California's citizens still wouldn't have COVID-19.
Now, ask, how many people are going to lose their small businesses which make up 85% of revenue for this country?
I'm going to guess, minimally, 45% due to this latest shutdown announced today (with no end date given).
I am happy to engage in any personal discussions.

I understand your point of view, but what is CA to do? Should officials go neighborhood by neighborhood to attempt to determine what places should close? Bars and churches are rated the worst for spread. How should it be determined which should close vs. all of them? How can CA stop the spread and deaths without closing businesses? Has it not been determined that shuttering businesses, etc. has slowed the virus vs. opening too soon? What else can CA do?

Coronavirus updates: Los Angeles on verge of 'red' threat level, mayor says

 

[CharlestonGal]

This is so important - as it's the CoVid-experienced nurses who are really turning the tide in places where hospitals are overrun. Lots of various drug interactions and symptoms (even though the drugs are mostly standard ones - the severity of the illness and possible side effects take clinical experience to understand).

At the hospital closest to me, only 7 staffed ICU beds are left tonight. It's weird to think about. The two next closest are similarly impacted, but fortunately, there's still quite a bit of surge capacity in the general region.

But it's sobering to think how thin the healthcare protection actually is.

That's all the more reason people should stay home for a while. If you have some kind of accident it's hard to say how long it will take to triage you into the hospital and begin treatment. Some hospitals are turning patients away in Houston. I'd rather not add to those problems.

 

[CharlestonGal]

The ironic thing about this point of view is that if CA had not taken these measures and your business had stayed wide open, you and/or your husband may have lost your lives before losing your business - in which case, losing your business would not matter much.

I think it's a myth that large numbers of people will go to restaurants for dine in even if they are open. Most of the locals are not going. Unless these numbers improve we're not going. Tourists are going, but hopefully they are back home before getting sick.

 

[CharlestonGal]

Under the photo (your source) was the following statement: The task force’s suggestions for mitigating the risk of school openings would be expensive and difficult.Credit...Audra Melton for The New York Times. How much are our children worth???

So, a second stimulus is coming? Well, that's the rumor. Why isn't there money for schools to implement coronavirus standards?

There is money for the schools - but they only get it if the open when the feds direct them to. No open, no money.

 

[Sundog]

Under the photo (your source) was the following statement: The task force’s suggestions for mitigating the risk of school openings would be expensive and difficult.Credit...Audra Melton for The New York Times. How much are our children worth???he

So, a second stimulus is coming? Well, that's the rumor. Why isn't there money for schools to implement coronavirus standards?

States received funds from the federal government through the CARES Act. In Ohio, the governor is allocating a portion of CARES Act money to K-12, and a portion to higher education.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

Allergy eyes maybe?

No I dont have allergies. Again this morning I have woken up with eyes full of "sleep" as we call it which I need to remove carefully from my eyelashes. They are often dry and itchy in the day. This started with the virus, about 4 or 5 days in.

ETA with working from home and not socialising I've only worn my contacts 3 times since March! They are daily disposables and cost me £35 a month. Seriously considering the switch to specs on a perm basis, not least as they are variofocals which were game changers for me. Lens equivalents cost double

 

[Snoods]

That's all the more reason people should stay home for a while. If you have some kind of accident it's hard to say how long it will take to triage you into the hospital and begin treatment. Some hospitals are turning patients away in Houston. I'd rather not add to those problems.

Just to be clear, a few hospitals are transferring Covid patients to other hospitals, they aren’t turning patients away with no treatment options. Headlines tend to err on the dramatic side. The article I read focused on two charity hospitals with limited beds.

Houston has more than 85 hospitals with almost 20,000 beds, including the The Texas Medical Center.

If you are in an accident you will have no problem seeing a doctor in the ER.

As of July 12, The Texas Medical Center has plenty of beds and says they are actively managing, and can adjust procedures to ensure sufficient capacity for Covid-19 needs.



Overview Of TMC Bed Status - Texas Medical Center
Houston hospitals transferring patients amid COVID rise: 'We're running out of ICU beds'

 

[ZoriahNZ]

Since I was lacking MSM sources for a previous post regarding COVID-19 spikes and protests:

Forbes
Research Determines Protests Did Not Cause Spike In Coronavirus Cases

Protests against systemic racism held in 300-plus U.S. cities following the death of George Floyd did not cause a significant increase in coronavirus infections, according to a team of economists who have published their findings in a 60-page paper released by the National Bureau of Economic Research; these somewhat surprising results are supported by Covid-19 testing data in many populous cities where demonstrations were held.

NPR
Parties — Not Protests — Are Causing Spikes In Coronavirus

As the U.S. begins to open back up, coronavirus clusters — where multiple people contract COVID-19 at the same event or location — are popping up all over the country. And despite drawing massive crowds, protests against police violence and racial injustice in Washington state weren't among those clusters.

Time Magazine
Nationwide Protests Haven't Caused a COVID-19 Spike (So Far)

While cases of COVID-19 have risen in some cities where major protests occurred (like Atlanta, Phoenix and Houston), experts say that’s likely not because of the demonstrations, but because of relaxed rules regarding indoor gatherings in those areas. “I think indoor transmission, events that might be happening at bars, are more important for the trajectory of the virus than the protests were,” says Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease and pandemic preparedness expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “What the protests added wasn’t as impactful as some of the other changes that were going on in society at the same time.”

And few video links for those who prefer to get their info from a different medium:

CBS news

Protests did not lead to spike in COVID-19 cases, study finds

Eyewitness news ABC7NY

The consensus seems to be that the circumstances surrounding the urban protests were less favorable for super-spreader events, than parties, bars, other mass celebrations where people gathered indoors or in close proximity outdoors without masks, or at choke-points such as public bathrooms, food stalls etc.
The medical experts also keep reiterating that masks and social distancing make a big difference.

 

[CeeCeeCat]

I am not reading. I am not writing. This is not normal | Amy Sackville — the guardian (UK)

Posting this because it’s something of a relief to find I’m not the only one unable to complete even one of the tasks I wrote on my Quarantine To-Do List...

 

[tresir2012]

But they can't do that if it's impossible. If it can never happen, even in theory, no one should be predicting it. It may be a mathematical impossibility given these factors: It's not yet known how long immunity lasts (titers are disappearing; some with mild cases have no titers after a month or two); new people (children) coming into the herd all the time (no evidence that children get immunity from their mostly mild cases).

The research that needs to be done on longterm immunity involves T cells which are produced in bone marrow and aren't easily tested through serology. There was a promising new technology mentioned in a pre-print yesterday, but no one knows how long it will take for meaningful research on this topic to be published.

If we all were forced to socialize and got the virus as fast as possible, certainly the odds of getting it would go down. But if people can get it over and over, like the common cold, then that's a big factor. The severity of the illness may be reduced by having a mild case - or it may not.

We just don't know. After 4 months, only 1% of us have been diagnosed with a case...so unless we speed it up, it will be several years. If epidemiologists are right and the true number is 3-5%, then it could be as few as 4 years.

But we really need to know that people who have had Covid but no longer have blood-based antibodies...are still immune (I think they will be). If true, then we wait 3-5 years. Or longer, if people do anything to avoid getting it (and we will, won't we??)

So the 1%/99% is accurate that has been stated by Trump? I noticed that too as it is in the headline on Worldometers.

The point is, I think, is that we only know based on those tested so the vast majority are not being tested and is difficult to judge. I think it will end up like the flu, requiring an annual vaccine and will not be like a small pox or polio one off vaccine.

ETA you are saying 1% infected 99% not infected I believe , whereas I am quoting different stats altogether, of the currently infected, there are 99% mild cases, which is different.

ACTIVE CASES
4,956,581
Currently Infected Patients
4,897,346 (99%)
in Mild Condition

59,235 (1%)
Serious or Critical

Coronavirus Update (Live): 13,259,473 Cases and 576,028 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

 

[weepingangel]

Oh testing
Delays in Coronavirus Test Results Have Medical Professionals Concerned

It's concerning to hear that in places like Arizona or Texas, it may be taking over a week for results to come back," said Dr. Thomas Tsai, an assistant professor at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health and a surgeon at Brigham and Women's Hospital.

But it's not only states that are surging that are seeing test result backlogs – we're seeing it in Massachusetts, too.

Both Quest and Lab Corp say prior to the end of June, test turnaround time was generally down to 24-48 hours.

Now, on average, it takes four to six days for results.

"Mathematically, it becomes very challenging for us to be able to get our arms around the pandemic and get it under control," Tsai said.

At Tufts Medical Center, they have not only needed to contract with a 3D printing supplier for swabs, but they've had to make the viral transport medium on their own, and very selectively limit the number of patients who can take a rapid-results coronavirus test.

"It's a ripple effect that is coming from the huge increase in demand over the rest of the country," said Doron, "and the companies that make these supplies and products not being able to keep up."

But with results times outside of hospitals stretching out days, the demand for their 24-hour tests have increased exponentially.

"What we are seeing here at the hospital is lines around the corner now because of that," Doron said.

 

[weepingangel]

https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/gov-charlie-baker-launches-new-online-portal-for-residents-to-report-businesses-not-complying-with-coronavirus-safety-guidelines.html
Gov. Charlie Baker launches new online portal for residents to report businesses not complying with coronavirus safety guidelines

more at link/Massachusetts
Gov. Charlie Baker on Monday unveiled a new website for residents to report businesses not complying with the state’s health and safety guidelines during the coronavirus pandemic.

The website, mass.gov/covidcompliance, instructs anyone wishing to file a report of non-compliance to contact their local Board of Health. They can also contact the Massachusetts Department of Labor Standards with any issues.

 

[tresir2012]

Oh testing
Delays in Coronavirus Test Results Have Medical Professionals Concerned

It's concerning to hear that in places like Arizona or Texas, it may be taking over a week for results to come back," said Dr. Thomas Tsai, an assistant professor at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health and a surgeon at Brigham and Women's Hospital.

But it's not only states that are surging that are seeing test result backlogs – we're seeing it in Massachusetts, too.

Both Quest and Lab Corp say prior to the end of June, test turnaround time was generally down to 24-48 hours.

Now, on average, it takes four to six days for results.

"Mathematically, it becomes very challenging for us to be able to get our arms around the pandemic and get it under control," Tsai said.

At Tufts Medical Center, they have not only needed to contract with a 3D printing supplier for swabs, but they've had to make the viral transport medium on their own, and very selectively limit the number of patients who can take a rapid-results coronavirus test.

"It's a ripple effect that is coming from the huge increase in demand over the rest of the country," said Doron, "and the companies that make these supplies and products not being able to keep up."

But with results times outside of hospitals stretching out days, the demand for their 24-hour tests have increased exponentially.

"What we are seeing here at the hospital is lines around the corner now because of that," Doron said.

Something is definitely wrong with the testing in some states.

 

[weepingangel]

Travel advisory toughened: Some travelers to CT must answer questions on arrival
connecticut/more at link
GOv. Ned Lamont is stepping up enforcement, including potential fines, of a travel advisory that has required some travelers to Connecticut to voluntarily quarantine for two weeks upon arrival.

Lamont, during his daily briefing Monday, said travelers will be asked to fill out a self-certification form when they land at Connecticut airports that will include questions about where they are coming from and what their plans are for quarantining, as well as a request for contact information. It’s possible, he said, that a state police officer will be on site to remind people how important adherence to the quarantine is for Connecticut.

 

[musicaljoke]

Very informative COVID-19 response assessment from world renowned doctor Larry Brilliant. He's the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox in the 1970s.

Larry Brilliant on How Well We Are Fighting Covid-19

The article is very informative. Thanks for posting it. Larry Brilliant, whose work helped to eradicate Smallpox, was also featured in a video report in Scientific American back in March, in the early days of the pandemic when far less was known about CoVid. It's interesting to look back.

Larry Brilliant Helped to Eradicate Smallpox—and He Has Advice for COVID-19

 

[tresir2012]

Very informative COVID-19 response assessment from world renowned doctor Larry Brilliant. He's the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox in the 1970s.

Larry Brilliant on How Well We Are Fighting Covid-19

Good news. No need to wash groceries or FedEx packages.

"The virus does not exist very long in fomites. I mean you’re talking about a very small percentage of cases that are caused by the pencil, the toilet seat—asterisks on toilet seats, because if you don’t have a cover on the toilet seat, and somebody who’s got Covid takes a poop, you create an aerosol so that can spread. But if you look at the things that we worried about, like the Amazon box that comes to the door, the fact that the virus can do that doesn’t mean it doesdo that. I don’t scrub my groceries at all. If an Amazon box comes, I open it right away. I’m mostly worried about face-to-face transmission by somebody you have had a conversation with, or you’re stuck in an elevator with, or you’re seated next to somebody at a rock show or at a bar. I don’t go do any of those things. I don’t go to lectures, I don’t go out."

 

[tresir2012]

So poor, sick areas get poorer and sicker. We all pay taxes. Those $$$ should be coming back to support us.


Very, very well said.

And how said is it that I saw the annual number of murders and was surprised at how low it is - honestly, I would have guessed in the hundreds of thousands, so I appreciate the perspective. And now it's just that much more depressing to see how many of us have died in a matter of months.

But...our government needs to step up with ideas and a proper use of our tax dollars. There is no reason for our nation's economy to die, too.

We need to look at the excess deaths not just the total coronavirus deaths. Eg. UK is now down to the normal rate of deaths for this time of year and that is what states need to be looking at too. Many coronavirus deaths would/could have been instead of regular flu or pneumonia deaths IMO.

 

[musicaljoke]

Oh testing
Delays in Coronavirus Test Results Have Medical Professionals Concerned

It's concerning to hear that in places like Arizona or Texas, it may be taking over a week for results to come back," said Dr. Thomas Tsai, an assistant professor at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health and a surgeon at Brigham and Women's Hospital.

But it's not only states that are surging that are seeing test result backlogs – we're seeing it in Massachusetts, too.

Both Quest and Lab Corp say prior to the end of June, test turnaround time was generally down to 24-48 hours.

Now, on average, it takes four to six days for results.

"Mathematically, it becomes very challenging for us to be able to get our arms around the pandemic and get it under control," Tsai said.

At Tufts Medical Center, they have not only needed to contract with a 3D printing supplier for swabs, but they've had to make the viral transport medium on their own, and very selectively limit the number of patients who can take a rapid-results coronavirus test.

"It's a ripple effect that is coming from the huge increase in demand over the rest of the country," said Doron, "and the companies that make these supplies and products not being able to keep up."

But with results times outside of hospitals stretching out days, the demand for their 24-hour tests have increased exponentially.

"What we are seeing here at the hospital is lines around the corner now because of that," Doron said.

I hate that this is happening. It makes contact tracing so much more challenging, adding to the problem of out of control spread.

 

[Bravo]

I hate that this is happening. It makes contact tracing so much more challenging, adding to the problem of out of control spread.

I think it makes tracing impossible. IMO