Not even ONE mask in this picture.
If it's true that only 100,000 have shown up, using the US average positivity rate but also assuming that the symptomatic stayed home (or are stuck sick in a motel room), that's at least 500 people who have CoVid, with 400 being active spreaders.
We'll say Friday, August 7 was Day 1. Bars were packed last night, as shown on some youtube videos (and the streets are packed today). No masks to be seen. Lots of long conversations (I can only see the outdoor ones).
If half of those spreaders went to bars last night, that's 200, each of home probably infected at least 2 people.
It takes 2 days to become contagious, more or less. So tomorrow, Sunday, there will be 600 active spreaders. Some of these people will indeed become sick.
Tonight, those spreaders will infect at least another 200-300 (probably more, as there are way more people packed into Sturgis today than yesterday).
Tons of older people at Sturgis, many overweight or obese/high BMI. By Monday, there will likely be as many as 1000 spreaders. Maybe only 700-800 (some will cease to be infectious, some will become symptomatic and head to the ER, etc).
Given that the bowling alley is open (and huge), and there are enormous bars, and that nearly everyone goes into one of those places on Saturday night (there's live music, etc), it's truly a perfect event for CoVid spread.
One more factor: an awful lot of these people are staying at the Broken Spoke or some other g-normous RV campground just outside of town. Living and sleeping inside an RV with others will up the transmission to those others (looks like 2 occupants per RV is not uncommon, sometimes 4 - way more men than women).
Indeed, the number of older men at Sturgis is remarkable.
A lot of the RVers interviewed in one campground were there for the duration (10 days). I wonder where the nearest hospital is.
Found the hospital: there's one right in Sturgis (gets pretty poor reviews on Google). Not huge. I hope they are ready.
I'd love to know the transmission rate difference between the bar/restaurant visitors (with visits of more than an hour) and those who head back to a camp without a bar/restaurant experience.
Anyway, SD has 1024 active cases as of yesterday and 106 new cases yesterday (which is a jump already, for them). 1024 is more than 1% of the total population of SD (700,000+) Let's hope the active cases stay home, but if my county is any indication (similar size), that's not happening.
