2020 Hurricane Season Starting Early, "High Activity" Expected This Year

Steady rain and wind today. About 8am I wandered thru the backyard picking up fallen branches. Nothing big, just not something you want to mow over. Tina the foster pup is wound up tight, it’s raining so her zooming is inside this morning. LOL!

Tropical Tidbits
Tropical Storm #Sally remains tilted this morning, with the surface center west of the thunderstorms. Shear is decreasing today, which should allow better organization tonight. How quickly this occurs is crucial to determining how strong Sally will be at landfall in LA or MS. At the moment, NHC is forecasting Sally to have winds of 100 mph at landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the SE Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines.

The other forecasting difficulty here is #Sally's landfall timing. Sally is expected to slow down, a lot, near the coast. This makes it difficult to know how long Sally will have over water to strengthen. More time = stronger. Regardless, slow also means lots of rain and flooding. We'll hope Sally stays weaker and doesn't dump as much rain as feared, but make preparations for the worst-case scenario just in case.
 
TROPICAL STORM SALLY

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https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1305532777517977600

Sally appears to be moving a little slower than computer models thought so far today. This could potentially foreshadow an eastward nudge to the track, increasing risk to the Mobile, Alabama region. Everyone from eastern LA to western FL should prepare for a direct hit from Sally.
 
OMG

The rainfall forecast keeps increasing. Now, with a stronger storm creeping ashore, up to 2 feet of rain is forecast, with widespread amounts of about a foot from the New Orleans Metropolitan Area to Pensacola and the western Panhandle. Heavy rains will move well inland through the rest of the week, and that water will have to drain to the coast, aggravating the flood threat.

Bryan Norcross
 
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It's always the water, always. I hope they help get everyone out. There are so many who don't have the funds, the transportation or family to help them.

Updated 1:45 PM ET, Mon September 14, 2020
Tropical Storm Teddy and four other storms are in the Atlantic at the same time - CNN

The only other time there were five active tropical cyclones -- hurricane, tropical storm and/or tropical depression -- in the Atlantic was in 1971.

The five systems are Hurricane Paulette, Hurricane Sally, Tropical Storm Teddy, Tropical Storm Vicky, and Tropical Depression Rene.

The big takeaway from this storm is the dangerous amount of water. The NHC is calling for "life-threatening storms surge and flash flooding." The highest storm surge is expected to be just to the east of where Sally makes landfall. Right now the NHC is forecasting 7 to 11 feet of storm surge from the mouth of the Mississippi River east to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. Rising waters from the surge is expected to be felt as far west as Burns Point, Louisiana, and as far east as Saint Andrews Bay, Florida.
 
I hope this doesn't catch too many by surprise.

Hurricane Sally strengthens to Category 2 as it moves toward the US Gulf Coast
Hurricane Sally strengthens to Category 2 as it moves toward the US Gulf Coast - CNN

Sally is is expected to make landfall Tuesday, possibly as a Category 3 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm appeared to shift east, placing Mississippi's and Alabama's entire coasts under a hurricane warning.
 
I hope the people still have a way out at this point. Continuous rain makes evacuation so much more difficult.

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

...HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

*** A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida and Mobile Bay
*** A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Navarre Florida
*** A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Mouth of the Pearl River westward to Grand Isle Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and metropolitan New Orleans

Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area this late afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area across the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama, and these conditions will gradually spread westward this morning and continue into Wednesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A tornado or two will be possible this morning in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The tornado threat should increase and slowly spread inland the rest of today into Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office www.weather.gov

At 4 a.m. CDT, the center of Hurricane Sally was located about 60 miles (100 km) east-southeast of the mouth of the Miss. River and about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Biloxi, Miss. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A northward turn is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana later today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesdaymorning.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. - a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). Although little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft
- Mobile Bay...6-9 ft
- Dauphin Island to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft
- AL/FL State Line to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including - Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
- Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft
- Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundationvalues may be higher than those shown above.

Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land producing 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 10 a.m. CDT with an intermediate advisory at 7 a.m. CDT - www.hurricanes.gov
 

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