Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #80

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I could be wrong, but I feel the opposite is happening. Much of what I have been reading is that the virus appears to becoming more contagious, but LESS LETHAL.

And I feel like there will be several effective Vaccines very soon, that will help tremendously.

On top of that, we are much better at treating it than we were at the start. And it is the younger population that has been passing it around to each other.

Although there have been thousands of new cases in colleges , there have been very few deaths among students.

So I do not believe we are heading towards massive death surges, but I could be wrong.

Falling COVID-19 viral loads may explain lower rates of ICU use, deaths
Falling COVID-19 viral loads may explain lower rates of ICU use, deaths
Sep 24, 2020
The findings of two studies presented at this week's virtual European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) Conference on Coronavirus Disease suggest that patients' loads of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, declined as the pandemic progressed, which may help explain falling rates of coronavirus-related intensive care unit (ICU) use and deaths.





Covid-19 becomes more contagious and less lethal

Covid-19 becomes more contagious and less lethal
A team of scientists from the Houston Methodist Hospital recently performed the analysis of the molecular structure of the covid-19 virus and obtained as a result in the samples that the coronavirus strain suffered a mutation that makes it more contagious.


The president of Pathology and Genomic Medicine at the Jim Musser Center explained that "this mutation helps the virus to spread faster."

To carry out the research, more than 5.000 covid-19 genomes were analyzed, which were recovered from the first wave of the pandemic in the city of Houston and the most recent outbreak of infections that is still ongoing.

The researchers specify in the study that when evaluating patients infected with the mutated strain, they presented a higher viral load; however, "no evidence was found" that this change in structure made the virus more lethal.

Musser commented that "the single mutation in the spike protein results in a greater amount of virus in the upper respiratory tract and that probably helps it spread faster, but does not cause a worse disease or invade better," he said. the specialist.





Covid-19 is becoming less deadly in Europe but we don't know why

Covid-19 is becoming less deadly in Europe but we don't know why
HEALTH 24 August 2020

It is becoming increasingly clear that people are less likely to die if they get covid-19 now compared with earlier in the pandemic, at least in Europe, but the reasons why are still shrouded in uncertainty.

One UK doctor has said that the coronavirus was “getting a little bit less angry”, while an infectious disease consultant at the National University of Singapore claimed that a mutated version of the coronavirus, D614G, is making the illness less deadly.

In England, the proportion of people infected by the coronavirus who later died was certainly lower in early August than it was in late June. Over the period, this infection fatality rate (IFR) dropped by between 55 and 80 per cent, depending on which data set was used, found Jason Oke at the University of Oxford and his colleagues.


“This doesn’t seem to be the same disease or as lethal as it was earlier on when we saw huge numbers of people dying,” he says. For example, the week beginning 17 August saw 95 people die and just over 7000 cases across the UK. In the first week of April, 7164 died and nearly 40,000 tested positive.

Dividing deaths by cases gives a crude case fatality rate of around 1 per cent in August, compared with nearly 18 per cent in April. These figures don’t represent the true IFRs at these times, both because deaths lag behind infections by a few weeks, and because testing regimes have changed over time, but are indicative of a shift in the IFR. Oke and his colleagues used a more sophisticated method to estimate the change in IFR.

The situation isn’t unique to England and the rest of the UK, says Oke, who has found the same trend repeated across Europe.


Also:
Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Trial Enters Phase 3

Johnson & Johnson’s potential coronavirus vaccine begins Phase 3 trials in the US today. The trial will include up to 60,000 adult participants at nearly 215 sites. The first participants will receive doses on Wednesday. Johnson & Johnson becomes the fouth company to begin phase 3 testing for a COVID-19 vaccine in the US – joining Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca.
ITA. And a great post Katy. I think the virus has lost its potency and we will not have the massive deaths we had early on simply because we won't let the care home tragedy happen again and all the elderly are taking great care not to catch it if at all possible. As long as it is the 18-30 crowd getting it it will not have that devastating effect of the "first wave". Vulnerable adults are rushing to get the flu jab, so we will have less flu deaths, plus those same adults will be first in line for the Covid jab. We are in a much better place now than we were in March. MOO. Keep calm and carry on.
 
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He's deliberately sacrificing his own people. I wonder how that will work out for him. Do the people of Florida care at all?

I am sure there are many who care, mostly older vulnerable people, while young people don't care and party on---- so DeSantis isn't sacrificing everybody ( in his mind) - only those he doesn't care about (older people) IMO
 
Regarding potency of the virus Tillicum posted this on the last thread

Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #79

From Tillicum's link.

In the first week, 49% of the initial viral load samples were considered intermediate, while 25.5% were considered to be low, and the other 25.5% were considered high viral loads. However, as the weeks went on the researchers started to note that the percentages started to shift in favor of the low viral load category.

BLOOD TEST MAY REVEAL CORONAVIRUS SEVERITY, DEATH RISK: STUDY


“By week five of the study, 70% of the positive samples had an initial low viral load” according to a press release. “This trend in initial viral load coincided with a decrease in the percent of deaths. Almost half of the patients in the high viral load group died (45%) compared to 32% and 14% of the intermediate and low viral load categories respectively.”
 
My surprise is that it didn’t happen sooner. I was expecting it after NFL Week 1.

In my opinion, there is a much higher rate of voluntary compliance, in the NFL, due to the relative lack of guaranteed contracts. As I recall, the league made it very clear there would be no sympathy for careless behavior. A player on the Seahawks was cut after trying to sneak someone into the team's hotel, before the season.
 
Record numbers offered flu vaccine as those with flu and COVID-19 more likely to die

Am posting all of this press release as it is from a government site so no copyright applies.

Three of the nation’s senior medics – Dr Yvonne Doyle, Professor Jonathan Van-Tam and Dr Nikita Kanani – are calling on all eligible people to get vaccinated against flu, as new research from Public Health England (PHE) suggests the risk of death more than doubled for people who tested positive for both flu and COVID-19, compared to those with COVID-19 alone.

The research, looking at cases between January and April this year, also found that those with co-infection of the 2 viruses were more at risk of severe illness. Most cases of co-infection were in older people and more than half of them died.

Flu is a serious condition that kills, on average, 11,000 people in England each year and hospitalises many more. Adults at high risk from flu are also most at risk from COVID-19. The free vaccine is more important than ever to help protect the nation from a double threat this winter.

This year, the programme is being expanded to help protect people from flu and ease pressure on the NHS and urgent care services.

The health system is working to provide the free flu vaccine to 30 million people, the highest number on record.

All primary school children and, for the first time, Year 7 children will be offered the flu ‘nasal spray’ in schools to reduce community transmission. Two- and three-year-olds will be offered the vaccine through their GP.

The most vulnerable, including adults aged 65 and over, those with long-term health conditions and pregnant women, will be offered the flu vaccine first through their GP or pharmacy.

It will also be offered to household contacts of people on the NHS Shielded Patient List and all health and all social care workers who have direct contact with the people they care for.

Once uptake has been maximised in the most at-risk groups, the newly eligible 50- to 64-year-olds will be invited for vaccination later in the season. Anyone who is 50 to 64 years old with long-term health conditions should be vaccinated earlier in the season, in line with all others in risk groups.

As part of England’s biggest ever flu campaign – alongside adverts across the media and posters in GP surgeries, pharmacies and hospitals – eligible people will receive additional direct reminders prompting them to book their appointment, supporting the hard work of local GP practices and pharmacies in driving uptake among their registered eligible patients.

To help increase uptake in the social care sector, for the first time, pharmacists will be able to vaccinate residents and care home staff at the same time.

Employers of frontline health and social care workers also have a responsibility to ensure their staff can get the free vaccine. A record number of NHS staff – three-quarters of a million (74.3%) of frontline healthcare workers – took up their workplace vaccination last year.

Overall, nearly two-thirds of eligible people received their free vaccine last year, making uptake rates in England among the highest in Europe.

Dr Yvonne Doyle, Medical Director at Public Health England, said:

It is dangerous to dismiss influenza as ‘just’ the flu – it can be extremely serious and can lead to hospitalisation, permanent disability or even death.

The flu vaccine is more important than ever, to help reduce transmission of flu and protect the nation from the double threat of flu and COVID-19. You may be offered it for the first time this year – it is important that you take up the offer to protect yourself and others.

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Professor, Jonathan Van-Tam, said:

Flu can be deadly and it is easily spread in children and adults. The vaccine is the best way to protect yourself from becoming ill with the flu, especially if you are in a vulnerable group.

This winter with COVID still circulating, and the increased risk to life if you are ill with both viruses simultaneously, it is even more vital to get the free jab as soon as you can.

Dr Nikita Kanani, London GP and NHS medical director for primary care, said:

My frontline NHS colleagues across England are working harder than ever to prepare for winter, including expanding and adapting services to ensure people can get the care and vaccinations they need safely and conveniently.

So if you are eligible, please help us help you and get your free flu vaccine as soon as possible. It could save your life, or someone you love.

Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Matt Hancock, said:

This year more than ever, it’s vital that those eligible for the flu jab get it this winter, so you can protect yourself, your family and the NHS. We’re pulling out all the stops to prepare for this uniquely challenging winter and we have enough vaccines for 30 million people this year, more than we’ve ever done before.

With the simultaneous risk of flu and COVID-19, make sure you get your flu jab if you’re eligible, don’t gather in groups larger than 6 and remember ‘Hands Face Space’, so we can look after each other.

The unprecedented vaccine drive will be supported by a scaled-up marketing campaign across TV, radio and digital advertising. The ‘Just’ The Flu campaign, launching in early October, will reinforce the seriousness of flu, urge people to re-evaluate their own risk to the virus and remind people that vaccination is the best protection for themselves and those around them.

For further information please contact:
Public Health England press office

Wellington House
133-155 Waterloo Road
London
SE1 8UG

Emailphe-pressoffice@phe.gov.uk

Telephone020 7654 8400

Out of hours020 8200 4400

Share this page


(Am posting in the UK thread also.)
 
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When Young People Get COVID-19, Infections Soon Rise Among Older Adults — NPR

“Young adults are driving coronavirus infections in the U.S. and are likely spreading the virus to older, more vulnerable populations, according to a recent report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, older adults were more likely to get infected, but when researchers analyzed cases from June to August, they found that people in their 20s accounted for the largest share of confirmed cases compared to other age groups. And public health experts say this is a worrying trend.”
 
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Quick Covid-19 test to roll out in 133 nations

A test that can diagnose Covid-19 in minutes will dramatically expand the capacity to detect cases in low- and middle-income countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said.

The $5 (£3.80) test could transform tracking of Covid-19 in less wealthy countries, which have shortages of healthcare workers and laboratories.

A deal with manufacturers will provide 120 million tests over six months.

The WHO's head called it a major milestone.

Lengthy gaps between taking a test and receiving a result have hampered many countries' attempts to control the spread of coronavirus.

In some countries with high infection rates, including India and Mexico, experts have said that low testing rates are disguising the true spread of their outbreaks.

The "new, highly portable and easy-to-use test" will provide results in 15-30 minutes instead of hours or days, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a news conference on Monday.

Drugs manufacturers Abbott and SD Biosensor have agreed with the charitable Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to produce 120 million of the tests, Dr Tedros explained.

The deal covers 133 countries, including many in Latin America which is currently the region hardest-hit by the pandemic in terms of fatality and infection rates.

More at link.
 
Ontario reported an additional 700 cases of coronavirus on Monday, the most on a single day since the outbreak began in late January.

Ford says the province is experiencing a second wave of the virus and has said nothing is off the table to address the increase.

Meanwhile, Toronto's top doctor is warning that it's time for people in the city to stop allowing social bubbles, and to now limit interactions with anyone outside their immediate household or essential supports.

Over the past week, the premier has been making daily announcements about the province's fall preparedness plan.

It's expected that Ford will continue to roll out that plan in the coming days which could include further measures to protect residents of long-term care homes.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-september-29-1.5742927
 
Quick Covid-19 test to roll out in 133 nations

A test that can diagnose Covid-19 in minutes will dramatically expand the capacity to detect cases in low- and middle-income countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said.

The $5 (£3.80) test could transform tracking of Covid-19 in less wealthy countries, which have shortages of healthcare workers and laboratories.

A deal with manufacturers will provide 120 million tests over six months.

The WHO's head called it a major milestone.

Lengthy gaps between taking a test and receiving a result have hampered many countries' attempts to control the spread of coronavirus.

In some countries with high infection rates, including India and Mexico, experts have said that low testing rates are disguising the true spread of their outbreaks.

The "new, highly portable and easy-to-use test" will provide results in 15-30 minutes instead of hours or days, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a news conference on Monday.

Drugs manufacturers Abbott and SD Biosensor have agreed with the charitable Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to produce 120 million of the tests, Dr Tedros explained.

The deal covers 133 countries, including many in Latin America which is currently the region hardest-hit by the pandemic in terms of fatality and infection rates.

More at link.

This is great news. I've been watching this as the project started to gain traction. International cooperation is essential in our goal to get this pandemic behind us.

It's good to see how many countries are supporting this humanitarian effort and how quickly it's coming together. I'm hoping that the US joins the effort too.
 
I could be wrong, but I feel the opposite is happening. Much of what I have been reading is that the virus appears to becoming more contagious, but LESS LETHAL.

And I feel like there will be several effective Vaccines very soon, that will help tremendously.

On top of that, we are much better at treating it than we were at the start. And it is the younger population that has been passing it around to each other.

Although there have been thousands of new cases in colleges , there have been very few deaths among students.

So I do not believe we are heading towards massive death surges, but I could be wrong.

Falling COVID-19 viral loads may explain lower rates of ICU use, deaths
Falling COVID-19 viral loads may explain lower rates of ICU use, deaths
Sep 24, 2020
The findings of two studies presented at this week's virtual European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) Conference on Coronavirus Disease suggest that patients' loads of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, declined as the pandemic progressed, which may help explain falling rates of coronavirus-related intensive care unit (ICU) use and deaths.





Covid-19 becomes more contagious and less lethal

Covid-19 becomes more contagious and less lethal
A team of scientists from the Houston Methodist Hospital recently performed the analysis of the molecular structure of the covid-19 virus and obtained as a result in the samples that the coronavirus strain suffered a mutation that makes it more contagious.


The president of Pathology and Genomic Medicine at the Jim Musser Center explained that "this mutation helps the virus to spread faster."

To carry out the research, more than 5.000 covid-19 genomes were analyzed, which were recovered from the first wave of the pandemic in the city of Houston and the most recent outbreak of infections that is still ongoing.

The researchers specify in the study that when evaluating patients infected with the mutated strain, they presented a higher viral load; however, "no evidence was found" that this change in structure made the virus more lethal.

Musser commented that "the single mutation in the spike protein results in a greater amount of virus in the upper respiratory tract and that probably helps it spread faster, but does not cause a worse disease or invade better," he said. the specialist.





Covid-19 is becoming less deadly in Europe but we don't know why

Covid-19 is becoming less deadly in Europe but we don't know why
HEALTH 24 August 2020

It is becoming increasingly clear that people are less likely to die if they get covid-19 now compared with earlier in the pandemic, at least in Europe, but the reasons why are still shrouded in uncertainty.

One UK doctor has said that the coronavirus was “getting a little bit less angry”, while an infectious disease consultant at the National University of Singapore claimed that a mutated version of the coronavirus, D614G, is making the illness less deadly.

In England, the proportion of people infected by the coronavirus who later died was certainly lower in early August than it was in late June. Over the period, this infection fatality rate (IFR) dropped by between 55 and 80 per cent, depending on which data set was used, found Jason Oke at the University of Oxford and his colleagues.


“This doesn’t seem to be the same disease or as lethal as it was earlier on when we saw huge numbers of people dying,” he says. For example, the week beginning 17 August saw 95 people die and just over 7000 cases across the UK. In the first week of April, 7164 died and nearly 40,000 tested positive.

Dividing deaths by cases gives a crude case fatality rate of around 1 per cent in August, compared with nearly 18 per cent in April. These figures don’t represent the true IFRs at these times, both because deaths lag behind infections by a few weeks, and because testing regimes have changed over time, but are indicative of a shift in the IFR. Oke and his colleagues used a more sophisticated method to estimate the change in IFR.

The situation isn’t unique to England and the rest of the UK, says Oke, who has found the same trend repeated across Europe.


Also:
Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Trial Enters Phase 3

Johnson & Johnson’s potential coronavirus vaccine begins Phase 3 trials in the US today. The trial will include up to 60,000 adult participants at nearly 215 sites. The first participants will receive doses on Wednesday. Johnson & Johnson becomes the fouth company to begin phase 3 testing for a COVID-19 vaccine in the US – joining Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech and AstraZeneca.

I have much hope. We've come a LONG way since the first days.

What really restored my hope was a neighbour family. I see the daughter (30ish, 100 lbs overweight) walk daily, we chat and I stop by on my am and pm walks. I noticed no one was home for several weeks, the end of July til the first of Sept. Two weeks ago on my walk the mother, daughter and small children we all outside and shared their journey.

They had COVID. A visiting daughter, nurse at NH unknowing exposed the family. The mother 63, 100 lbs overweight, 4 year kidney transplant recipient, CHF, COPD and obstructive sleep apnea was hospitalized on the 7th day. After 24 hrs at the local hospital, a major hissey fit and phone calls from the UVA transplant team she was transferred to UVA in Charlottesville Virginia. Her prognosis grim, almost comatose and minutes from a ventilator her Dr. sought permission for EU plasma for the UVA -NIH trial. Thirty patients total, she was number 27, and the only kidney transplant in the trial. After the first dose of plasma, within hours she was able to speak with her daughter's. After second dose, next day she was moved out of ICU. A total of 16 days in UVA, mostly due to follow up on the plasma trial. She said, they call everyday and she has lab work twice a week.

It is miracle she survived with multiple comorbidities She lost 78 lbs, blood sugars have improved, reduced insulin, is on home oxygen at 2 LPM, and her sats are improving daily.

Her daughter, that lives with her, was very ill and had to take care of two young children 8 and 6. She had difficulty breathing, layed on the floor, on her stomach, with arms over her head to breath. The two children never became ill and tested negative for antibodies at UVA, 6 weeks later. She lost 75 lbs and looks great.

They did not tell anyone in the neighbour until 2 weeks ago. They stayed in for 4 weeks after recovery to protect everyone. I felt so bad they were sick and no one knew and could not help.

Their story is an inspiration of how far we have come with treatment and therapeutics. It was a blessing to hear their story.
 
Yesterday at the White House press briefing, the President announced the roll out of 150 million point-0f-care rapid tests by Abbott (Abbott BinaxNOW rapid tests) that can give results in 15 minutes. They are already being sent to nursing homes, assisted living centers, to the Indian Health Service, hospices, and HBCUs (Historically Black Colleges and Universities), and other venues. Also, 100 million of the tests will be sent to governors for their distribution as deemed best.

At the press briefing, Admiral Giroir demonstrated how easy these rapid tests are to use, with nasal swabs in both nostrils (not the kind of nasal swabs that go high up into the nose), and six drops of liquid onto a piece of paper/cardboard that has a lot of antibodies and incredible technology built into it.

They have also already shipped 65,000 tests to disaster operations in California, Oregon, Texas, and Louisiana.

Remarks by President Trump in an Update on the Nation's Coronavirus Testing Strategy | The White House
 
I have much hope. We've come a LONG way since the first days.

What really restored my hope was a neighbour family. I see the daughter (30ish, 100 lbs overweight) walk daily, we chat and I stop by on my am and pm walks. I noticed no one was home for several weeks, the end of July til the first of Sept. Two weeks ago on my walk the mother, daughter and small children we all outside and shared their journey.

They had COVID. A visiting daughter, nurse at NH unknowing exposed the family. The mother 63, 100 lbs overweight, 4 year kidney transplant recipient, CHF, COPD and obstructive sleep apnea was hospitalized on the 7th day. After 24 hrs at the local hospital, a major hissey fit and phone calls from the UVA transplant team she was transferred to UVA in Charlottesville Virginia. Her prognosis grim, almost comatose and minutes from a ventilator her Dr. sought permission for EU plasma for the UVA -NIH trial. Thirty patients total, she was number 27, and the only kidney transplant in the trial. After the first dose of plasma, within hours she was able to speak with her daughter's. After second dose, next day she was moved out of ICU. A total of 16 days in UVA, mostly due to follow up on the plasma trial. She said, they call everyday and she has lab work twice a week.

It is miracle she survived with multiple comorbidities She lost 78 lbs, blood sugars have improved, reduced insulin, is on home oxygen at 2 LPM, and her sats are improving daily.

Her daughter, that lives with her, was very ill and had to take care of two young children 8 and 6. She had difficulty breathing, layed on the floor, on her stomach, with arms over her head to breath. The two children never became ill and tested negative for antibodies at UVA, 6 weeks later. She lost 75 lbs and looks great.

They did not tell anyone in the neighbour until 2 weeks ago. They stayed in for 4 weeks after recovery to protect everyone. I felt so bad they were sick and no one knew and could not help.

Their story is an inspiration of how far we have come with treatment and therapeutics. It was a blessing to hear their story.
That is a terrible but inspiring story. I hope they continue to recover.
 
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