Though this maybe an over analysis, I have always liked numbers. Adult "LARP', by its nature is going to attract some people seeking to escape everyday life, and in some cases reality.
Though I am sure that a significant majority of people in LARP view it purely as recreation, a certain number may not. These could be divided into two general categories:
- Category A: LARPers that are potentially in "too deep". This does not mean 'murderous" per se. Rather, they just derive a disproportionate amount of their self esteem, social status and social interaction from the LARP world. As their status in the LARP world may far exceed their status in the outside world, they may really value LARP status. Lets say that 1 in 20, or 5% of LARPers are category "A".
- Category 'B': Lets say another 5% of LARPers are of marginal concern in that they have some of the above characteristics, but to lesser degrees. If experiencing stress in the outside world, they may move to category 'A' as the LARP world is a place of refuge.
This yields ten percent LARPers being potentially of concern. If say, the victim had direct contact with 300 or so individuals in the LARPer circles, 30 people could warrant further checks.
But.... I have no idea if the above estimate 0f 5% of LARPers in category 'A" and 5% in 'B' is accurate. Perhaps it is too high?