As cases rise again, second thoughts on another lockdown - The Boston Globe
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Avoiding that scenario is fairly straightforward: Test as many people as possible; locate the source of outbreaks and trace and quarantine those who have been exposed to the virus; target high-risk settings with public health restrictions and prioritize keeping open settings that serve public interest, such as schools.
In Massachusetts, even as many in the scientific community express concern about rising numbers of infections and hospitalizations, few call for a return to spring or summer restrictions. But, experts warned, a lighter-touch approach will only be effective if Baker and other officials work hard to keep the public informed, united, and compliant.
“Communication is an important part of showing people that the governor is looking at the numbers and responding to them,” said Dr. Sarah Fortune, chair of the department of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “There’s a huge tension between giving people so much information that it compromises others’ privacy and giving them enough information that they are able to feel safe.”
For the public, the scientific thinking away from total shutdowns may seem confusing, as sheltering in place remains the most visible and familiar way to limit COVID-19′s spread.
A World Health Organization official, Dr. David Nabarro, encountered this disconnect earlier this month when he advocated for a “middle path” approach to controlling the pandemic. “We really do have to learn how to coexist with this virus in a way that doesn’t require constant closing down of economies, but at the same time in a way that is not associated with high levels of suffering and death,” Nabarro said in an
interviewwith British news source The Spectator.
Some, including President Trump, took Nabarro’s comment to mean that shutdowns were never justified. But scientists argue that the viability of a “middle path” is proof that staying home in March, April, and May worked.
“In the spring, we just didn’t even know what was going on. . . . You really have no other option at that point other than to just shut everything down,” said Helen Jenkins, a Boston University epidemiologist. “You then use that time while you’re shut down,” Jenkins said, to learn more about how a new virus spreads and then get to work tracking and containing it.
"We’ve learned a lot since March when we implemented these shutdowns,” said Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and visiting professor at the George Washington University’s Milken School of Public Health, “including about what are the targeted measures that we can apply that would have less of an impact on the economy and still have a significant impact on reducing infections.”
Experts said we have also learned that shutdowns carry significant consequences of their own — not only for the economy, but also for public health. Many people suffer from isolation, and those who have health care needs unrelated to COVID-19 may be afraid of going to the doctor or unable to access their usual services.
Shutdowns remain an important tool if COVID-19 spread becomes rampant and hospitals risk being overrun, but scientists say we need not reach that point again.
Public adherence to behaviors that minimize risk can help contain outbreaks, said Wen, who prior to her post at George Washington served as Baltimore’s city health commissioner. She noted that some reports suggest that private gatherings of friends and family, not unsafe workplaces or public settings, are primarily driving the current surge in COVID-19 cases across the United States.
“Policy interventions can only go so far. At some point, we need individuals to do their part,” she said.
