Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #2

[Seni]

 

[Ninja Bunny]

So, the idea is she reached Salvaguardia, came back down, was headed to the Refuge at Venasque, but decided to keep going to the Hospice de France. You think she’s had an accident somewhere between the refuge and the hospice?

 

[Skiptolou]

So, I’ll put myself in ED’s shoes and spell out the scenario I described above.

At some point during the afternoon, I write a post but I’m offline. The moment I hit a patch where there’s cell service, the post goes live. I do not have to be at the cell tower, nor do I have to have written the post right before it gets sent. Heck, if I want, I can even schedule it to get sent.

“En route to the Refuge, I see a sign pointing to the Hospice. I bet I can do it if I really book it. Besides, I’m making good time, and I really don’t want to be hanging out at the Refuge. I can see it from here, and it just looks so lonely and isolated. There’s no water, no hot shower, no good toilet, no internet, no people, and boy did those feel great the day before yesterday when I bailed from the hike I was planning to do. Such a nice man gave me a lift. But here I am. I hadn’t even thought of that ‘til now. I can go to the Hospice. Let me just give them a ring and see if they’re open. Dang, no service. Might as well turn the cell off: there’s no service here. But I have a feeling the Hospice is open, so no worries, and I’m getting lonely out here. Maybe it’s a bit out of my comfort zone, but I know I can bivouac if I don’t make it all the way, since I just did that a couple of days ago, and it was really all right.”
And off she goes on the trail to the Hospice.

I can follow this thought process. I think it is very easy to imagine that ED's desire for human contact, internet connection, water and food (perhaps she needed water to make food?) made her want to push on to try and reach the Hospice de France. She liked pushing herself and I also think she thought she could bivouac if she didn't make it in time.

The only bit I am unsure about with this theory, is that she deliberately turned her phone off. She may have done so if she only had a small amount of battery life left and wanted to preserve that. But IMO that would have been extremely bad planning on her part. Surely it would have been a priority for her to make sure she had enough battery life in her phone for this trip. Or carried some sort of juice bank. I think another explanation of why her phone stopped sending signals to mobile network masts is because it broke. Maybe she dropped it (while taking a selfie?). Maybe she stepped off the path to retrieve it and this caused her to have an accident. She may have been partially mobile and dragged herself to a rock overhang for shelter/warmth and where she would have been hard to find by SAR.

So many possibilities.

 

[sundaaaay]

So, the idea is she reached Salvaguardia, came back down, was headed to the Refuge at Venasque, but decided to keep going to the Hospice de France. You think she’s had an accident somewhere between the refuge and the hospice?

This could be the case, but the areas she could have had a serious accident are closer the refuge as the topography is much more extreme there

 

[RickshawFan]

So, the idea is she reached Salvaguardia, came back down, was headed to the Refuge at Venasque, but decided to keep going to the Hospice de France. You think she’s had an accident somewhere between the refuge and the hospice?

Between the Port and the Hospice. Otto had photos of the signs for the Hospice. I'll now go in search of them upthread.

I'm still entertaining the notion that she didn't go to the top of the Pic that day, but was in the vicinity of the Port.

 

[RickshawFan]

This could be the case, but the areas she could have had a serious accident are closer the refuge as the topography is much more extreme there

There are some dangerous areas on the trail to the Hospice.

 

[RickshawFan]

"Location of ED's Encounter with Spanish Skier" - I think it was deep in Thread #1 where a poster (sorry, I can't recall who!) wondered where exactly on the (only) trail up to Pic de Sauvegarde ED encountered the Spanish skier. Why does this matter? IMO it matters because if it was below Port de Vanesque, it leaves open the possibility that that encounter does not necessarily mean ED summited the Pic that day (we know she did on 11/21 and took many pictures).

If I recall correctly that encounter occurred about an hour hike from the summit (please correct me if I'm wrong!). So it is possible that could put their encounter below the Port - would anyone know? The Spanish skier said ED continued up after their encounter. But do we really know how far up? And certainly if they met below the Port, IMO, ED may have hiked through the Port towards (or past) the Refuge de Vanesque rather than summiting the Pic again. And that would have put her on that challenging terrain towards the Refuge at mid-afternoon with much less risk.

I realize we have the phone transaction with DC about an hour later, and we believe that occurred from the summit of Pic de Sauvegarde. But what if ED was not actually on the summit, but within range of the cell tower on the summit? If that summit tower picked up the ping from another location, could ED have just sent DC a summit picture from later in the day on 11/21? Some here wonder if ED spent a few hours on the summit 11/21 to explain differences in the pics.

And even if ED didn't go directly through the Port after meeting the skier, could she have aborted her second summit attempt somewhere higher up? If so, IMO, she could have turned around and descended (to Port or Banasque, etc.)

I am not supposing why any of what I postulate here may have happened. I am just trying to look at the data a little differently to see if there are other scenarios that could emerge if we had more specific information on this location.

I'm bumping this post of @RedHaus . It was this post where we started to speculate ED had hiked to around about the Port and perhaps didn't go up the Pic.

@otto I can't find your photos of signposts. There's one (#1) to the Hospice from near the Port IIRC. Is that correct? And it was at a fork where you could avoid going to the Refuge? Then, there's a different signpost (#2) to the Hospice AFTER you've taken the route that goes to the Refuge. This is IIRC. It needs verification.
My speculation is that she could have come across either of those signs and made a snap decision to go to the Hospice.

 

[RickshawFan]

3 hour hike from the Hospice de France to the Port de Venasque, 2.5 hour hike from the Refuge de Venasque to the Hospice de France. She couldn't have made it there in daylight.

Randonnée Pic Sauvegarde 2738m – Les Topos Pyrénées par Mariano

I'm bumping @otto signs. These aren't the only ones @otto posted.

 

[RickshawFan]

I'm bumping this, too, just so we have relevant visuals handy. These photos start at the Hospice in the opposite direction than ED would be hiking if she decided to go to the Hospice.

Randonnée Pic Sauvegarde 2738m – Les Topos Pyrénées par Mariano

 

[RickshawFan]

This is the Port on the right, correct? The area where the switchbacks emanate from?

And then there's another set of switchback in the center distance. These are on the trail to the Hospice?

Source: Randonnée Pic Sauvegarde 2738m – Les Topos Pyrénées par Mariano photo 55

 

[RickshawFan]

I can follow this thought process. I think it is very easy to imagine that ED's desire for human contact, internet connection, water and food (perhaps she needed water to make food?) made her want to push on to try and reach the Hospice de France. She liked pushing herself and I also think she thought she could bivouac if she didn't make it in time.

The only bit I am unsure about with this theory, is that she deliberately turned her phone off. She may have done so if she only had a small amount of battery life left and wanted to preserve that. But IMO that would have been extremely bad planning on her part. Surely it would have been a priority for her to make sure she had enough battery life in her phone for this trip. Or carried some sort of juice bank. I think another explanation of why her phone stopped sending signals to mobile network masts is because it broke. Maybe she dropped it (while taking a selfie?). Maybe she stepped off the path to retrieve it and this caused her to have an accident. She may have been partially mobile and dragged herself to a rock overhang for shelter/warmth and where she would have been hard to find by SAR.

So many possibilities.

If it were me, I'd have turned the phone off if I tried to make a call and it didn't go through. I'd assume there was no service. Then what would be the point of the phone being on? And she might have wanted to have the juice so she could play on the internet later, since perhaps she didn't have a charger.
But that's just me. I would be, like, why keep it on?

But I also could agree with the idea that it could have been dropped.

 

[RickshawFan]

That factor I have forgotten to bump is that it went substantially below freezing that night, and there's water on the trail to the Hospice. There's also, of course, a lot of water in the Refuge area, but unless she fell into the deep part of a lake, I think SAR would have found her.

 

[RickshawFan]

I still can't figure out why dogs didn't find her. She'd have had to have peed somewhere! That would leave scent (although a lot more scent for a guy!).

 

[Zoomy]

@RickshawFan, I think it's been mentioned on here in thread 1, but apparently she was keeping her phone on airplane mode to save the battery.

If it were me, I'd have turned the phone off if I tried to make a call and it didn't go through. I'd assume there was no service. Then what would be the point of the phone being on? And she might have wanted to have the juice so she could play on the internet later, since perhaps she didn't have a charger.
But that's just me. I would be, like, why keep it on?

But I also could agree with the idea that it could have been dropped.

Gaillard said the gendarmes had not been able to ascertain where Dingley had gone missing. Her last contact with Colegate was via a WhatsApp call on Sunday 22 November, when she indicated she was on the Pic de Sauvegarde.

“After that she put her phone on airplane mode to save the battery and there is no data use or GPS trace since then. Theoretically her itinerary meant she should have done the loop and crossed into France before returning, but we cannot say for sure. We have no indication of whether she crossed the border or not,” Gaillard said.
Gendarmes to scale down search for British hiker Esther Dingley in Pyrenees

 

[Puzzles]

Off Topic:
I’m a new member, as I joined recently to learn about ED. A google search for information about her plight brought me to WS. I’m grateful to have found so many thoughtful, curious minds, which not only seek solutions to mysteries but show true caring for fellow humans.

The suggestion to read, from the beginning, your search for Susan McLean, led me to a story that is, yes, as one of you described ‘uplifting and heartbreaking.’ It has affected me profoundly. HH and Lorna will remain in my memory as examples of supreme tenacity, dedication and Love. I laud WS and all who participated in bringing HH and Lumberjilly together.

Suicide leaves so many victims mourning. I was saddened to read how loved ones of SM wish they’d behaved somehow differently – said or done something to prevent her final act. The terrifying horrors of clinical depression can be so ineffably intense there is nothing that could change the sufferer’s belief that suicide is the only solution. I imagine many of you know this. I realize this mention of suicide is off topic, in an already off-topic post. Something compelled me to write it, so there must be a reason I include it...

More off topic:
What is BBM?
What are Trophies?

On topic:
From ’The Guardian’ Dec 1.
“That if she had fallen from one of the paths, they really would have expected to find her given the intensity, the closeness of the search and the fact most of the trails are really quite straightforward across open ground. As things stand tonight, Esther is now listed as a national missing persons case in Spain and the case has been passed to a specialised judicial unit in France.”

Question: Does someone here understand any possible reason a case is "passed to a specialised judicial unit in France.” ie: what role does such a unit play?

From ‘Daily Mail’ Dec. 16.
"French and Spanish police searching for missing British hiker Esther Dingley are set to hold a summit to discuss next steps in resolving her mystery disappearance."

Question: I’m not able to find a credible source reporting this planned summit of French and Spanish LE.
Does anyone know if it took place?

Question: Is there evidence that LE in any country consults WS for possible guidance during their investigations? I do hope they realize the value of so many astute minds working together on an international forum.
With gratitude for all of you.

 

[RickshawFan]

What is BBM?

Snipped for focus

BBM=Bolded by me

This indicates the bolding is not in the original.

You will also see DBM=Deleted by me.

Trophies.
I have no idea what trophies are, except they showed up one day right after a new forum software was introduced. Many posters got the same number of trophies at the same time!

Trophy options (dunno if these are real):
1. Brownie points from a moderator for those times when you could have been oh so tempted to get snarky but didn't.
2. How many days since you last got an alert from the moderator. NB for some posters, this number might represent hours. Then there's minutes. Then there's seconds...
3. Randomized issue, to persuade you there's some kind of competition going on and lull you into thinking, if only you tried harder, you could write as many posts as Otto.
4. You start with a pile and get a deduction every time you go off topic (like I have in this post). Just watch my trophy number shrink.

 

[Puzzles]

Oh @RickshawFan, I haven't laughed like that for quite a while. Thank you!

 

[FrostOwl]

OT @Puzzles
Thropies: Trophies
You can go to your profile page and see what trophies wou have got, and why.

 

[Puzzles]

Thanks @FrostOwl.
The only trophy I've appreciated is the live pig I won at a Farmers' Market some decades ago.

 

[RickshawFan]

OT @Puzzles
Thropies: Trophies
You can go to your profile page and see what trophies wou have got, and why.

I wouldn't put tooooo much stock in this. You will observe that the algorithm is particularly partial to trophy numbers ending in -3 and many old-time posters have numbers that haven't budged in 5 years. Ahhh, the wonders of sleuthing..