Found Deceased CA - Lucas Horan, 39, Emeryville Marina, 24 Dec 2020

Yes that is the marina, @mlhenn

Re this being an accident @azure, that is how it is being presented as being the case. I just find the handling of communication unusual, the story to have concerning parts, etc. I think there are many with this point of view based on background one might look up about the case elsewhere but I am hesitant to outline specific points I find unusual as it is not my intention to upset family or appear to accuse anyone of anything given I have zero information beyond what I could glean from reading about various people known to LH.
 
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that really makes me question the neighbor's account as that is very inefficient and feels like a waste of time and energy.
the "long covid" thing makes me pause, the fact it can have psychological effects really freaks me out and makes me wonder if we will be hearing more bizarre or tragic stories for the next few years. ugh :(
come home safe, Lucas!!!
The "Covid-long" was apparently a description of his hair. Generally covid-long means it's overgrown in comparison to his regular hair, but it seems to me this is his normal length if anything?

Now his Namus states "shoulder-length hair", and the photo they used for his Namus has long hair for a man (they have many much better photos of him available IMO, it's the only one I could find with hair THAT long, who knows when it was taken). But that isn't what the video on his youtube shows. In the video from Dec 22nd its curly and poofy, I wouldn't call it shoulder length.

Semantics maybe, but frustrating nonetheless :( MOO
 
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Maybe I'm being dense here but this seems to me like 100% an intoxicated/impulsive decision to jump into cold water in jeans that 100% resulted in drowning? To me there is no other possibility.
I agree that it’s most logical, but then who did the neighbor see emerge from the water and up to the rocks? Do you think he didn’t really see him?
 
I feel like the boat neighbor had to have been questioned more throughly by law enforcement and KKF even.

He was supposedly the last person to see Lucas alive, I mean did Lucas often swim in the marina fully clothed to where this didn't seem to cause much concern or to check he made it back safely on his boat and not just on some rocks.
 
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I agree that it’s most logical, but then who did the neighbor see emerge from the water and up to the rocks? Do you think he didn’t really see him?
I think the fact that the neighbor "thought he saw" Lucas is weak, I think he either didn't see him and thought he did, or he's acting like he saw him because he was too intoxicated etc to even check and he knows it looks bad. JMO IMO.
 
I hope the neighbor was certain about who got out of the water that day. Also, is the neighbor's estimate of 200 yards accurate? Impulsively swimming 200 yards toward shore is concerning.

If he lived on a boat and there was a homeless encampment nearby, he was probably friends with people there.

It sounds as if this could be a voluntary disappearance with mental health issues in the background (the spat with girlfriend).

HOWEVER, she put him out of the car about 30 miles from his boat (probably more like 38 miles) if I'm understanding her drive toward Sacramento, her pause at a Costco near Solano Drive.

So...earlier that day, he had...walked? Run? Hitchhiked? back to Emeryville and taken a midnight boat trip into the Bay (must have been beautiful) only to jump from the boat just before it docked (it wouldn't have gone to shore - it would have gone to its boat slip, IMO).

Since the boat owner is a "neighbor," I am assuming the slip was near to Lucas's.

This is such a strange story.

ETA: He looks very different in each of his photos. I don't get why he was changing his name to Savage when his fiancée's last name is Fischer. He's known for silliness. The onesie search is, frankly, very odd - but I guess they think he might be along a trail somewhere or that one purpose is just putting up posters.

He's been gone a week...
Hi,
Don’t post much here but KKF is referencing Solano Avenue which is an area with a lot of shops in Berkeley...much closer to Emeryville. I believe the Costco she is referencing is Costco in Richmond CA (about 5 miles from the Marina). It makes sense if you’re leaving Solano Ave to get to Sacramento, you’d pass the Costco there.

not that it makes this whole case any less crazy, but thought I’d clear that part up.
 
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IMO, I really doubt anything happened out in the water. I'm guessing his neighbor let him jump off before they got to the mouth of the marina as this is where the rocks are and, especially being a resident, you aren't going to risk it around here getting caught swimming in the marina. It's not allowed and that is where the risk is re: swimming at night and boats. If he jumped off where I'm guessing, there wouldn't be any boats, even more so because the tide was going out and about 3' around then. I launch from another part of the bay. but the shorelines can get so swampy therefore making it easy to get stuck. The water was glass that night with fair moonlight and the lights from the marina. I believe his neighbor could at least see his shadow from that distance.

I figure he either slipped, hit his head, and went out with the tide, or IMO more probable, something happened between when his neighbor last saw him and 2:00 pm the next day. I agree with a previous poster who said it is highly improbable he got to shore with wet clothes and willingly went somewhere else without changing when his home on his boat is right there. I also raised my eyebrow when KK reported that his neighbor was shocked he had supposedly not returned the previous night therefore calling the police right away. The slips are very close to each other and it's easy enough to hear and be aware of noise and activity on the boat next to yours even mores at night when it is really quiet.

Again, IMO, KKF is severely doing herself a disservice by posting that page, particularly her account of events. From a psychological/profiling perspective, I am very curious to see how this turns out. I really hope he is taking a time-out somewhere but the lack of wet clothes from that evening on his boat is very worrisome.
 
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IMO, I really doubt anything happened out in the water. I'm guessing his neighbor let him jump off before they got to the mouth of the marina as this is where the rocks are and, especially being a resident, you aren't going to risk it around here getting caught swimming in the marina. It's not allowed and that is where the risk is re: swimming at night and boats. If he jumped off where I'm guessing, there wouldn't be any boats, even more so because the tide was going out and about 3' around then. I launch from another part of the bay. but the shorelines can get so swampy therefore making it easy to get stuck. The water was glass that night with fair moonlight and the lights from the marina. I believe his neighbor could at least see his shadow from that distance.

I figure he either slipped, hit his head, and went out with the tide, or IMO more probable, something happened between when his neighbor last saw him and 2:00 pm the next day. I agree with a previous poster who said it is highly improbable he got to shore with wet clothes and willingly went somewhere else without changing when his home on his boat is right there. I also raised my eyebrow when KK reported that his neighbor was shocked he had supposedly not returned the previous night therefore calling the police right away. The slips are very close to each other and it's easy enough to hear and be aware of noise and activity on the boat next to yours even mores at night when it is really quiet.

Again, IMO, KK is severely doing herself a disservice by posting that page, particularly her account of events. From a psychological/profiling perspective, I am very curious to see how this turns out. I really hope he is taking a time-out somewhere but the lack of wet clothes from that evening on his boat is very worrisome.

I’ve now read enough stuff about this to see multiple different reasons this was not an accident. This is based on the number of people that might have a ‘motive’ and the accurate statement above that the handling of the narrative is a disservice. It is also based on the general rule that when someone is killed, it is most often at the hands of someone known to the victim.

HOWEVER, in the grand scheme of things, and notwithstanding the unusual personalities in this ultramarathon community, it is actually most likely that this was just a mere accident and played out as stated above. There are basically three broad possibilities - a drowning and passage out to sea / yet to be found (pro: aligns with all stories assuming all stories are being accurately conveyed), a murder prior to going back to marina (con: neighbor would obviously know victim not with them), a murder upon reaching shore (con: low likelihood of this being orchestrated), a death from leaving marina in clothes (pro: aligns with all stories; con: body would have likely been found), he left of his own volition to get away or something (pro: aligns with all stories, con: clothes would have been seen, would be evidence he was on boat, or he would have phone).

Of those, the drowning and out to sea seems to me to be the most likely. I can’t provide all my rationale here without moderator input on what is inbounds for sharing, but that is where I’d now put my money if I had to... despite some of the very unusual background aspects of the case.
 
I think the fact that the neighbor "thought he saw" Lucas is weak, I think he either didn't see him and thought he did, or he's acting like he saw him because he was too intoxicated etc to even check and he knows it looks bad. JMO IMO.
I agree. I think he jumped off the boat intending to swim back to his own boat at the marina. IMO he didn’t make it. His friend hoped, assumed or thought he saw him and let it go. Until he was missing.
MOO
 
Just a note, when referring to a person who has been mentioned in MSM regarding a case, but the person has not been named a POI or suspect, please use FULL initials, especially if that person’s nickname is only initials. Previous mention of the fiancé on earlier posts have been edited to KKF. Please use those initials in subsequent posts. Thanks.
 
From what I’ve read about ultra marathoners, heart damage / scarring of the heart and enlarged arteries often occurs as a result of extreme endurance events, increasing the risk for sudden cardiac death.

It is possible his heart failed during the swim and he drowned. It might even be possible that he made it to shore but while walking back to his boat on the dock, fell back in the water there...
 
I'm worried about Lucas because even though California is mostly pretty warm, the Bay is going to be cold right now. Squashing around in wet jeans and sneakers is very likely to lead to hypothermia. It just sounds like a bad idea. We are either missing a lot of information, or we have too much of the wrong thing. Or both.
I can see wanting to take a break, it sounds like there were a lot of stressors. But I can't see leaping, fully clothed, into the bay. At midnight.

Hopping into the Bay fully clothed at night makes no sense. In fact, I'm going to guess that never happened. Don't most swimmers in that area wear wetsuits at that time of year?
 
While I agree with most everything being said here, I think there’s little known about their lifestyles and how they lived. It’s practically a whole other world where they don’t seem to have the -normal- sleeping patterns, eating patterns, and just seem to live in a whole other plane of existence. The more I look into ultrarunning the more I think anything is possible.

I really hope something turns up, because I feel as though this accident may have more to it that would require more LE input, whether he jumped in the water or not. The marina and surrounding businesses and homes leading to mainland are likely full of cameras, I hope they’re being checked for when he entered the Marina after the Sacramento trip (to see how he was acting at that point), all the way to when the neighbour reported him missing the next morning. MOO
 
While I agree with most everything being said here, I think there’s little known about their lifestyles and how they lived. It’s practically a whole other world where they don’t seem to have the -normal- sleeping patterns, eating patterns, and just seem to live in a whole other plane of existence. The more I look into ultrarunning the more I think anything is possible.

I really hope something turns up, because I feel as though this accident may have more to it that would require more LE input, whether he jumped in the water or not. The marina and surrounding businesses and homes leading to mainland are likely full of cameras, I hope they’re being checked for when he entered the Marina after the Sacramento trip (to see how he was acting at that point), all the way to when the neighbour reported him missing the next morning. MOO
I’m a runner (although not even close to an ultrarunner, haha.) I took a running class in college taught by a grad student who was an ultrarunner—the dude was a masochist!!
 
Curious, if this was an accident -maybe slipped and fell on his way to his boat or didn’t make it shore, why hasn’t the body been found? Not sure how long it would take for a body to make it back to the shore?
IMO the accidental drowning isn’t the way I’m leaning, but who knows
 
Curious, if this was an accident -maybe slipped and fell on his way to his boat or didn’t make it shore, why hasn’t the body been found? Not sure how long it would take for a body to make it back to the shore?
IMO the accidental drowning isn’t the way I’m leaning, but who knows

@FrostykinHopkins You mentioned you were from the area? I have no idea about tides and such, would you have any thoughts on this one?

I will say that San Francisco bay is notorious for not being able to find the bodies of the SF bridge jumpers, but I wonder if closer to the Marina like that might be different. Also, as it was Christmas, would other boats have been on the water at night, or is that not common?
 
@FrostykinHopkins You mentioned you were from the area? I have no idea about tides and such, would you have any thoughts on this one?

I will say that San Francisco bay is notorious for not being able to find the bodies of the SF bridge jumpers, but I wonder if closer to the Marina like that might be different. Also, as it was Christmas, would other boats have been on the water at night, or is that not common?

The reason that jumpers from the GG bridge get swept to sea is because the mouth of the ocean is literally right there. Where Emeryville is I would say it is almost unfeasible for this to happen due to the distance but it could mean it may take a few days for him to wash up elsewhere if there was an accident.

I know technically people can drown in low levels of water but if he were feeling exhausted and/or weighted down from his clothes, he could've easily stood up in the approximately 3' of water. He lived on a boat and it becomes second nature about what you need to do when overboard. He would have those jeans off so fast if in danger and stood while doing so. With that being said I am a sailor and have taken a couple long trips. I find the mind set with safety can be very different from those who sail vs. use of a motorized boat. Regardless, I can almost guarantee both him and his neighbor knew the depth of the water and felt comfortable. He would not have been battling with any gnarly tidal pull because at the time he was in the water was the sweet spot. The general rule for stuff like SUP and kayak in the bay where you can fight like a *advertiser censored* with the tide is to be out no more than an hour before and after the mid-point between tide changes. He was near dead center.

I imagine it may have been pretty quiet out on the water that late on Christmas eve but I've sailed many times late at night so I didn't think much of the the fact they did.
 

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