I feel like the whole county lines/"going cunch" idea has been missing from much of our discussion. So without further evidence, a lot of this post is just MOO and hypothetical, but worth thinking about.
Some latest stats on county lines targetting trends:
SOURCE Rescue and Response County Lines Project, London Government (
https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/rescue_recovery_year_2_sa_-_sept_2020.pdf)
- 82% male
- 45.9% black
- 61% no prior gang involvement
- 10% at least 1 disability (gangs known to target disabilities)
- 63 people in Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea (RBKC), wher RO lives, with suspected link to county lines operations
- Recruitment has shifted to West from South London in last year
Biggest (relevant) destinations *:
- Cambridge the 2nd biggest
- Ipswich the 7th biggest
- Northampton the 9th biggest
Overall:
- If arrested/leave early there is a concept of debt bondage
- CL missing people are away for longer periods during lockdown, due to demands and nature of drug market
- Violence/threats of violence against the individual and family are used to enforce "bondage" and keep them working
- Primary use of Wickr & Telegram to communicate operations, Snapchat & Instagram for online recruitment
- Local recruitment more prevalent than previous, gangs and estates in the area where gang leaders are based, friends from former schools, etc.
- All of the areas of contextual safeguarding from exploitation for RO seemed weak of late - family, peers, school, neighbourhood (as for many of us but possibly hardest for young adults and teenagers)
- Services like Uber are provided regularly to county lines runners, as is food from takeaway delivery services, etc. This is noted by many polices forces, charities, newspapers.
(
NOTE I have some training on geographic targeting, and the psychology of geography. The following is JMO but also just my professional opinion)
* These cities are relevant because RO was last seen close to the M11 in a geographically relevant way. If he was meeting someone to go to Hertfordshire or Buckinghamshire county lines, the pickup place would have likely been Barnet or Watford areas. If he was going for south county lines, Brighton etc., the pickup would have more likely been the wider Croydon area, or possibly Richmond.
It wouldn't make sense for someone picking him up to travel around the M25 to junction 27 then switch to the M11 then off into the Loughton area. If someone does that regularly they are noticed, and anyway the county lines operations tend to operate in relatively straight lines.
If this theory is correct, the towns that RO - or a hypothetical person in a similar situation - would currently be operating in or around are:
- Cambridge, Ipswich, Peterborough, Norwich
- Harlow, Chelmsford, Colchester.
If hypothetically RO has gone for county lines, these are the towns the police should be looking into.
Remember that stat above - Cambridge and Ipswich are both in the top ten destinations for county lines operations. Cambridge is no. 2 nationwide.
Epping Forest area is widely known in law enforcement as a county lines hot zone. Just two years ago there was a huge police operation that ended with 24 arrests. That's one example. It's a gateway in and out of London because of the motorway exit points, the public transport from central London, the easy roads from central London, the quiet and dark. It's a perfect place for sophisticated criminality.
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A few interesting MSM articles about what it's like in a county lines op, and what happens if you try to leave:
"At the start of last year, a 16-year-old north Londoner, Boy X, found himself in a terrifying situation. He owed a drug dealer £55 and did not have the funds to pay off the debt.
He was told the cannabis debt would double – and keep doubling – if he failed to pay. But the teenager was offered a way out: he could work for the dealer and his associates.
Boy X was informed by the dealer he was going to be driven somewhere and packed some clothes and a games console into his bag.
I thought I’d be with him around London,” he said. “I got in the car and he said, ‘You’re going to be going somewhere far,’ but he wasn’t telling me where. I said, ‘My mum and dad don’t know’ and he said, ‘I don’t care, you have to go.’ I wasn’t really asking questions."
‘I agreed because I was scared’: boy, 16, on county lines ordeal
"Young people are being provided with taxis via apps (such as Uber, Bolt and Kapten) in order to make longer journeys."
https://www.safeguardingchildren.co.../08/County-Lines-after-COVID-a-new-threat.pdf
"A string of suspected drug dealing gangs have been shut down by Essex Police with the arrest of 24 people during a day of action in Epping Forest District."
Five gangs targeted and 24 arrested in dawn drug raids
"Drugs and weapons including two crossbows have been seized and five arrests made in the latest police crackdown on county lines and criminal exploitation."
Drugs and weapons seized in the latest police crackdown on county lines and criminal exploitation
"County Lines: More than 4,000 Londoners identified in drugs gangs"
County Lines: More than 4,000 Londoners identified in drugs gangs
"County lines: Teenage drug dealers posed as key workers during lockdown" 30 Sep 2020
County lines: Teenage drug dealers posed as key workers during lockdown
"Mum's warning as son tortured by drugs gang has boiling water poured on hands
Ben McCloughlin's mum Louise shared injury pictures to warn other parents of the dangers of county lines drug gangs, after her 20-year-old was kidnapped for wanting to leave the group he joined just two weeks before"
Mum's warning as son tortured by drugs gang has boiling water poured on hands
"Now aged 19, Kate became involved in county lines dealing when she was 14, dealing heroin and crack. Excluded from school, she ended up in a pupil referral unit, where she says she learned more about “going cunch” or “OT” (out there), as county lines dealing is known
She says she ran drugs all over the UK, from London to Basingstoke, or Cambridge and Oxford. She would be driven out to the countryside and left to operate from someone’s house while she dealt drugs – a practice known as “cuckooing”."
‘Once you get in, it’s hard to get out’: county lines drug dealer on how she almost died
