CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

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Wow thanks for those images. I still think there would have been evidence on their bodies of a lightning strike. Warning - some lightning injury photos here.
It says you could have moderate injury, but I didn't find where it says there would be none. The ocular info is interesting. "Lightning has been known to cause cataracts for almost three hundred years. "

Lightning and the Forensic Pathologist


MOO

The weather data from that day just keeps providing solid information that lightning was the culprit.


All the images attached below are from
https://weather.us/satellite/mariposa/satellite-superhd-15min/20210815-2050z.html . On the attached satellite images, the family's final location on the trail is the red star and the El Portal weather station is the blue dot, both plotted to the best of my ability.

The family was underneath cloud
cover between 1:30pm and 2:50pm PDT that day. Significantly, the El Portal weather station was not (yes, I mapped that station's location). So the temperatures recorded at El Portal between those hours (107F-109F) become inapplicable to this family, IMO.

Moreover, that cloud contained a thunderhead.
It was a storm cloud (I'm not a meteorologist so please don't take me at my word - this case has taught me so much from all the research, but I'd encourage others to look into this stuff themselves, obviously:)) Radar images taken from the same timeframe show the precipitation reflectivity contained in the cloud's tower, and how it intensifies within 22 minutes and then dissipates almost as quickly.

They were directly under a storm cell for over an hour. Lightning could have gotten them in these mid-day storms, or later during the evening ones. But two storms passing over this family in one day, significantly increases the odds they encountered lightning.

I'm sure LE has much better weather data than this, and has had it for much longer. They've been connecting the same dots way more quickly and efficiently than I am. If their investigation finds that it was the mid-day storm that hit this family, that's even more tragic because it wasn't forecast like the evening storms were. They could not have had forewarning, even if they'd done everything right and double-checked the weather. It would have been a true "freak" summer storm that caught them off guard.

MOO
 
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Their 8.5 mile hike took a huge drop in elevation along the switchback trail. The return hike was strenuous & rugged, climbing up in that heat with no shade, or any areas to get out of the blistering sun.

And, having water on you doesn’t always prevent heat stroke:
Carrie Romero, 29, became disoriented at 2:30PM. Search crews arrived quickly, but she was pronounced dead at 3PM after being found about half-mile from the trailhead.

Officials said the death is heat-related. She had been hiking for more than 3 hours and appeared to have ample water.
Several hikers die on Arizona trails; officials urge caution
 
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https://www.sacbee.com/article254080593.html

Sept 8, 2021

[..]

Few clues have been shared by investigators working to determine how a family and their dog died a little over three weeks ago while hiking in Sierra National Forest, in a remote section of Mariposa County southwest of Yosemite National Park.

Known harmful algae blooms in the south fork of the Merced River, near where the family was mysteriously found dead along the Savage-Lundy Trail in Devil’s Gulch, are among the hazards being considered.

[..]

The results of toxicology tests for the Mariposa family have not been shared.

In response to a question during Thursday’s sheriff update, about whether toxicology results were back yet, Briese said, “Some are, yes. But we still do not have an exact cause of death yet.”
Thank you for sharing this!
 
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Respectfully, I don't think switchbacks make hiking easier. They are designed to have lower impact on the environment & help trail users cope better with the terrain by having an established path that is not just one way. "Easier" is very subjective.

How many switchbacks have you hiked? I have only hiked a few in Colorado. They are strenuous going up or down because
of the elevation change IMO. Of course, fitness level is the key to exertion required.

I am convinced this is at least a 2 factor incident. If this switchback was at the end of their hike on this day in the weather they were coping with, no cover and a baby in a backpack (that would be fun - not! - balancing on a switchback even on a perfect day), then the outcome was tilted in a negative direction IMO.

What other factor(s)? I hope the answers will come.

JMOO
 
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MOO

This was a hike in their neighborhood, in temperatures consistent with what they’d been living with for at least a month. They were regular hikers. I think someone reading every post in these threads could still reasonably conclude that this was “just a little extra heat” for them.

And now we have images showing they were in the shade of a storm cloud from at least 1:30 until close to 3pm. They would have been experiencing the gust front and downdrafts bringing cold air down to the surface from aloft.
THUNDERSTORMS
MOO
 
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Their 8.5 mile hike took a huge drop in elevation along the switchback trail. The return hike was strenuous & rugged, climbing up in that heat with no shade, or any areas to get out of the blistering sun.

And, having water on you doesn’t always prevent heat stroke:
Carrie Romero, 29, became disoriented at 2:30PM. Search crews arrived quickly, but she was pronounced dead at 3PM after being found about half-mile from the trailhead.

Officials said the death is heat-related. She had been hiking for more than 3 hours and appeared to have ample water.
Several hikers die on Arizona trails; officials urge caution

Those mentioned in the article seem heat related indeed,
but I'm not too sure about this one though.

First there's not a single sign of any struggle due to overheat issues whatsoever.
From what we've learned only from written or spoken details, all we know is that it appears they were taking a little break.
They were only about 30 yards apart from each other and all were found right on the trail.
I know it doesn't show in autopsies but it's really difficult to tell the man died of heat stroke.
the woman may have been more likely due to heat related because the way she was found, lying faced down.
why was she going alone ahead of her family? a 30 yards seems a little too far to be leading for the group.
this is where I find it really bizarre why they were found like this.
 
Respectfully, I don't think switchbacks make hiking easier. They are designed to have lower impact on the environment & help trail users cope better with the terrain by having an established path that is not just one way. "Easier" is very subjective.

How many switchbacks have you hiked? I have only hiked a few in Colorado. They are strenuous going up or down because
of the elevation change IMO. Of course, fitness level is the key to exertion required.

I am convinced this is at least a 2 factor incident. If this switchback was at the end of their hike on this day in the weather they were coping with, no cover and a baby in a backpack (that would be fun - not! - balancing on a switchback even on a perfect day), then the outcome was tilted in a negative direction IMO.

What other factor(s)? I hope the answers will come.

JMOO
They were found at the lower portion of midway section in the switchback trail.
Maybe they decided to take a little break knowing they were about half way of the switchback trail,
I don't think heat would've killed them instantly at the scene. no way that's possible.
it'd take several hours of struggle with heat, "disorientation" if it was only heat related.
 
Safety tip: if you have no cell service and are in an emergent situation, you may be able to change your voicemail to share your location and other details, and anyone who tries to reach you will hear it. Apparently* you don’t need data or service to do it. Who knows if it would have saved them, but they would have been found a lot earlier.

*This is according to pre-Hurricane safety tips that are circulating online - I’ve seen claims that it is true and “mixed,” but it’s certainly worth a shot.
 
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They were found at the lower portion of midway section in the switchback trail.
Maybe they decided to take a little break knowing they were about half way of the switchback trail,
I don't think heat would've killed them instantly at the scene. no way that's possible.
it'd take several hours of struggle with heat, "disorientation" if it was only heat related.

I don’t recall any theories posited on the three threads that heat killed the entire family instantly. We have a number of possible theories posited, with many reasonable sleuths supporting them. Each of us has his/her own metric for evaluating the likelihood of those possibilities. And many of us have researched theories we don’t find likely, in the interest of furthering the discussion. It really is helpful to do that, and to go through the three (soon to be four) threads of discussion, though it may be tedious.
 
I was mistaken about EC being found off the trail, so it's a moot point anyway. But it
sounds like each area has its own regulations depending on local and regional conditions.

I'm fascinated by how different those conditions are in the CA mountains versus New England. If I were to visit and go for a hike, I could see how I might totally misjudge the trail, the amount of water needed, how hot it was going to be, whether I could pee somewhere, etc.
It’s not a moot point, or as I would say a mute point- if she needed to relieve herself- this isn’t a ridiculous distance to be away from the party on trail or off.
 
Wow thanks for those images. I still think there would have been evidence on their bodies of a lightning strike. Warning - some lightning injury photos here.
It says you could have moderate injury, but I didn't find where it says there would be none. The ocular info is interesting. "Lightning has been known to cause cataracts for almost three hundred years. "

Lightning and the Forensic Pathologist
Dehydrational crises: a major risk factor in blinding cataract - PubMed
heatstroke can also cause cataracts.
 
It’s not a moot point, or as I would say a mute point- if she needed to relieve herself- this isn’t a ridiculous distance to be away from the party on trail or off.

I have no idea what a mute point is. (Although I think it might be related to towing the line.) But if you felt too shy to relieve yourself in your husband’s presence, wouldn’t it be simpler to just ask him to look the other way for a minute?

Besides, this IS a moot point. It was only brought up in the first place as an explanation for a misunderstanding.
MOO
 
MOO
My mind keeps going back to a message from everybodhi about experiencing the loss of a partner: that nothing can take away the pain of losing a loved one, that all the wondering through all the possible scenarios before the truth is understood can be agony, but that finally learning the truth when all the investigations are concluded brings a great deal of relief.

This case has attracted a lot of attention, and has brought in a lot of folks new to Websleuths, because it’s just so sad and unexplained. People new to these threads, like me, are maybe landing a little hard, learning the Rules by making lots of mistakes, retreading a lot of territory because they’re just so excited to have a venue to post their ideas with similarly inquisitive people that they don’t start off by reading all the stuff that came earlier.

Despite our rough landings and our annoying repetitions and our disagreements, I do believe the reason we are all here on these threads is because this case upsets us, because we are empathetic individuals who put ourselves in another’s shoes and try to make sense of a tragedy.

So that’s why I really, truly, respect everyone’s postings here. More than that, I thank and respect every individual poster. Everyone here puts something into the mix, they’ve thought through ideas, they’ve considered this family’s plight, and they’ve shared their own ideas and their own research. Sometimes, when we disagree, it doesn’t get shared that the effort someone put forward in trying to find answers is respected and noticed and appreciated. But I believe those feeling are there.

As much as we’re feeling about this case, and feeling strongly tied to our beliefs about what happened, I keep going back to everybodhi‘s post: as long as the loved ones can gain a thorough understanding of what happened and make sense of this tragedy and get some relief from the wondering, it doesn’t matter to me one bit what the COD is eventually found to be.

Love to y’all

MOO
 
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Safety tip: if you have no cell service and are in an emergent situation, you may be able to change your voicemail to share your location and other details, and anyone who tries to reach you will hear it. Apparently* you don’t need data or service to do it. Who knows if it would have saved them, but they would have been found a lot earlier.

*This is according to pre-Hurricane safety tips that are circulating online - I’ve seen claims that it is true and “mixed,” but it’s certainly worth a shot.

A similar tidbit I learned from experience -- the mountain pass near me has no cell service over the top, but texts can often go through. Apparently texts require less oomph (IMO that is the technical term for the units of cell service power :cool: )

Anyway if you are ever stuck unable to call out due to no reception, try texting, it just might work.
 
Tangent:

The "moot" was an assembly that the early Anglo-Saxons held periodically where they could debate issues affecting the community. By around Elizabethan times, they had lost their power, and people started calling a long-winded debate over something unimportant or irrelevant a "moot point."

Law school "moot courts" where an abstract or theoretical case is tried, are the direct descendent of the original moots.

Definition of MOOT

/end tangent

This is something I would never have bothered to look up without having all the great Websleuths questions, insights, and brainstorming to push me. We may frequently talk about possibilities or hypotheses that we later decide are irrelevant, but I think it's so wonderful we can discuss them and evaluate them, even if we decide they are moot.
 
I have no idea what a mute point is. (Although I think it might be related to towing the line.) But if you felt too shy to relieve yourself in your husband’s presence, wouldn’t it be simpler to just ask him to look the other way for a minute?

Besides, this IS a moot point. It was only brought up in the first place as an explanation for a misunderstanding.
MOO
Moot point. Not mute.
I think Ruthbullock was just making a little joke at her own expense re: moot/mute. And her opinion is welcome - she’s disagreeing with someone’s self-assessment that their own point was moot, whereas she may see it as relevant.
MOO
 
MOO
My mind keeps going back to a message from everybodhi about experiencing the loss of a partner: that nothing can take away the pain of losing a loved one, that all the wondering through all the possible scenarios before the truth is understood can be agony, but that finally learning the truth, when all the investigations are concluded, brings a great deal of relief.

This case has attracted a lot of attention, and has brought in a lot of folks new to Websleuths, because it’s just so sad and unexplained. People new to these threads, like me, are maybe landing a little hard, learning the Rules by making lots of mistakes, retreading a lot of territory because they’re just so excited to have a venue to post their ideas with similarly inquisitive people that they don’t start off by reading all the stuff that came earlier.

Despite our rough landings and our annoying repetitions and our disagreements, I do believe the reason we are all here on these threads is because this case upsets us, because we are empathetic individuals who put ourselves in another’s shoes and try to make sense of a tragedy.

So that’s why I really, truly, respect everyone’s postings here. More than that, I thank and respect every individual poster. Everyone here puts something into the mix, they’ve thought through ideas, they’ve considered this family’s plight, and they’ve shared their own ideas and their own research. Sometimes, when we disagree, it doesn’t get shared that the effort someone put forward in trying to find answers is respected and noticed and appreciated. But I believe those feeling are there.

As much as we’re feeling about this case, and feeling strongly tied to our beliefs about what happened, I keep going back to everybodhi‘s post: as long as the loved ones can gain a thorough understanding of what happened and make sense of this tragedy and get some relief from the wondering, it doesn’t matter to me one bit what the COD is eventually found to be.

Love to y’all

MOO

At lunchtime today, I listened to a podcast about a missing mother, presumed dead, and disappeared by her husband. It was the narrator stating "if you can't care about a mother that was suddenly wiped from the earth, what can you care about?" -- what I remember most. And thank you, @SpideySense -- as a WS old-timer (2013), I will never forget you introducing me to 'types' of lighting. :)
 
Respectfully, I don't think switchbacks make hiking easier. They are designed to have lower impact on the environment & help trail users cope better with the terrain by having an established path that is not just one way.
I did not know that! Thanks for sharing. Up until today, I also thought that it was to make it easier, but yeah, that's not right at all. Learn something new every day...
 
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