CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #4

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I've had dogs all my life, they don't all behave the same so it's quite possible this dog laid down and refused to go on. Then what? The humans would have a choice to make- leave the dog, carry the dog, or stop and try to coax it into continuing. An overheated dog lying in 100F/38C+ heat, with no shade would quickly go from refusing to continue to being unable to continue. The humans just climbed ~1000'/305m in extreme heat with no shade, and they have only a small amount of water left. Their dog is dead or dying, and the gravity of their situation is sinking in. They take off the backpack so they can both take a close look at their baby. They're feeling the effects of incipient heat stroke, and need to sit down. According to the National Weather Service "It surprises many people to learn that the heat index values in the chart above are for shady locations. If you are exposed to direct sunlight, the heat index value can be increased by up to 15°F (8°C)." It computes for me. That's my own opinion of roughly what happened.

Yes, the dog may have been the ‘trigger’. Besides heat, the toxic algal exposure is also certainly most relevant to the dog. This was reinforced to me by a recent weekly Sheriff’s update. Asked if ‘testing’ was complete, the Sheriff answered, ‘for the individuals yes but we still have more to do’. My mind read ‘dog’ but he may have been referring to environmental testing). The entirety of the loop is inappropriate for any dog in extreme heat but all of my dogs and any self-respecting trail rat happily places themselves at the South Fork on that Sunday morning, the obvious difficulty being climbing out of there in the afternoon.

But each member of that party had ‘triggers’ attached to them, all exacerbated by the growing heat. (By ‘trigger’ I mean anything that hinders their progress and increases their exposure, all contributing in small ways to eventually being overwhelmed and ‘trapped’, to be consumed by the heat).

Already hamstrung by baby and dog—now unable to frolic in the river and requiring nervous supervision—the obvious triggers of drinking water, heat, load and terrain loom. But there are a number of potential innocuous triggers working in concert with one another and fueled by the heat; a minor fall/scrape, a bad tuna fish sandwich, the heel of a parent feeling a little wonky after stepping on that baby rattle late the night before, the swarm of ‘skeeters finally outrun, a …

One example I am curious about and haven’t seen discussed: were mother and child breastfeeding?
It would seem to conform to their beliefs. And after a year, you think you have that routine down but on the trail, in the heat, it’s another story.

I recall what that was like. Not easy for anyone. Find a shady spot with seating, remove 40 lb baby carrier, unload baby, do your thing, reverse order, repeat. The heat also effects production and the child’s appetite, it will eventually get what it wants—at detriment of mother’s hydration—but may require many more feedings, all hindering progress as the clock continues to tick and increasing exposure as the day grows warmer.

MOO, for illustrative purposes only to highlight any of a myriad of unanticipated issues throwing a wrench into a plan allowing for little margin of error.

Also MOO; I get the sense this party was all tethered to and dependent on one another, only as strong as their most fragile member. At first sign of distress, as heat stress announces itself and with a narrow window transitioning to heatstroke and its debilitating mental and physical toll, there was never a contingency considered, from the sanctity of the river bed, to send the most able up the ridge with the other tending to the vulnerable. No matter what, they were going to stay together as a family, until that was broken and they were only one.
 
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The switchback trail IS the Savage-Lundy trail and it's the one not even listed on AllTrails. Neither of the other trails (Hite's Cove and Hite Cove Rd.) show substantial elevation changes on their AllTrails map profiles. This doesn't make sense to me as it should be nearly a 2000 ft descent down to the river.

Of about a dozen sports and hiking apps I have used, AllTrails is my least favorite. The information doesn't seem that reliable and the reviews often sound more like the ones you find on Googlemaps or Yelp. If you look at some of JG's recorded activities, portions of some "hikes" seem to have been recorded from a vehicle. It's an easy mistake to make if you forget to stop your app or watch from recording. I've done it several times.

I've also been dissatisfied (to say the least) with AllTrails. In fact on a recent hike a friend and I remarked that in some circumstances it would be a very bad idea to trust the app's data. (No idea whether this is what the Gerrishes did--just IMHO about the app itself.)
 
The switchback trail IS the Savage-Lundy trail and it's the one not even listed on AllTrails. Neither of the other trails (Hite's Cove and Hite Cove Rd.) show substantial elevation changes on their AllTrails map profiles. This doesn't make sense to me as it should be nearly a 2000 ft descent down to the river.
OK, I'm starting to see the issue with Alltrails.

HC trail is the one that starts at Hwy 140 and heads SE toward a spot on the South Fork apparently known as Hite's Cove. This is not where they were.

HC road is in the right vicinity but also not where they were. (it may or may not be what was searched on JG's phone). This trail as labeled on the app starts on pavement in Jerseydale and ends just past the Y where they parked, stopping just at the gate leading to the Savage-Lundy switchbacks.

It seems to me that the ohv road they hiked DOWN was colloquially called Hite's Cove/Hite Cove as well (and at the river, where the family apparently turned right/upstream to hike, if one were to turn left and continue downstream, one would eventually come to the same Hites Cove that the Hwy 140 trailhead leads toward), but Alltrails doesn't label it such nor at all. Nor does Alltrails label the Savage-Lundy trail at all, although both paths are shown on its maps.

Since JG/EC were not new to the area, IMO it's impossible to tell what they were or weren't familiar with.

The route JG searched online, the one that starts at Jerseydale, they ended up driving rather than hiking that day.

MOO
 
I've also been dissatisfied (to say the least) with AllTrails. In fact on a recent hike a friend and I remarked that in some circumstances it would be a very bad idea to trust the app's data. (No idea whether this is what the Gerrishes did--just IMHO about the app itself.)
To be fair, I can't find the Savage-Lundy trail using any other apps either. It shows up on some of their maps as a trail (dashed lines) but there's no reviews or specific info. I think this is a part of the country where you need paper maps or regional hiking guidebooks for accurate planning. Unfortunately these won't always have up to date info on recent fires or trail closings.
 
What I find improbable is all of them succumbing, including the dog. If they were trapped, sure. But they weren’t. I know I am in the minority, but I am not yet convinced this was environmental, despite the wretched heat. Time will tell. At least we hope so.

amateur opinion and speculation

Well, I’m not convinced one way or the other. It’s confusing. But, if they had done the loop and had been hiking for hours in high temps, if one succumbed or was overcome on the barren, and steep trail, they were, in a sense, trapped. Because if one was overcome, which was likely the dog or the baby, they probably spent a lot of time trying to revive them. All the while they are being pummeled by heat. Then, to try to go for help would mean going steeply up, which by then may not be possible.

Going down would get them to the river after awhile but it wouldn’t get them emergency help.
 
Well, the temperature of the air would be more or less the same in both the sun and in the shade, but how it feels to a creature is much hotter (~15* hotter) because the sun is heating the body mass of the creature perceiving the heat, in addition to experiencing the hot air itself. If I've said that in an understandable way.

Good experiment! What you saw was not 123.5* air temp in the sun, but 97ish degree air combined with the direct sun heating up the thermometer itself!

And since heat stroke is oriented around the core body temp of the sufferer, rather than the air temp alone, you can see how staying out of direct sun makes a difference.

And also how once body temp is elevated and rising, merely going into cooler-but-still-hot shade is generally not going to reverse it. For all I know even going into 70* air conditioning might not be enough. As others have reported, cold water or ice packs are generally needed to cool the body mass before brain damage and organ failure happen. MOO

Welp, just bought me a hiking thermometer.

I do notice that when I park my car under a tree, the temp it displays is much lower than when I drive it out into the sun, on a hot day. I have no idea where the actual gauge is. I just see the reading on the panel inside the car.
 
Welp, just bought me a hiking thermometer.

I do notice that when I park my car under a tree, the temp it displays is much lower than when I drive it out into the sun, on a hot day. I have no idea where the actual gauge is. I just see the reading on the panel inside the car.

I notice that when I get into my unshaded car on a hot day, the temp shows higher initially than it does after driving for a moment. But I can't work out what this tells me about where the sensor is located! o_O
 
Sure. Here's a map. X is roughly where they were found. This imagery is from before the 2018 fire, the switchback area was totally burned to bare earth at that time.

Yeah. This makes sense for a heat-related event. Terrible. They were far too far up the trail and away from the river to make it back in time to cool anyone down.

I think there’s a reason the trail is called “Savage Lundy” and the gulch, “Devil Gulch”. This would be a good, tough climb without it being devoid of any vegetation. It looks like going up that trail from Devil Gulch is probably about a two hour trek. A steep one.

If temps were in the 90’s at the time they were going up, it would be easy to succumb, IMO, and virtually impossible to do without massive amounts of water.

My feeling is you have to be a hiker to get a sense of what they were facing. Especially a western US hiker.

One of my regular hikes is from Irvine Park to Santiago Oaks Canyon, up steep switch backs to the ridge, then down into the canyon, back up, and out Santiago Oaks, looping back to Irvine Park.

It’s about 2.5 hour hike so I do it a lot.

Santiago Oaks has been subject to a couple fires and is pretty barren along the trail going up and then down into the canyon and back up. The trail that connects on the other side from Santiago Oaks, through Irvine Park (which is in a dry wash that is a seasonal stream), is also fairly barren although there are random trees and bushes along the flat trails out.

It gets hot. It can be brutal. And that’s even with a ton of water. If it’s 75 degrees temperature for the area, despite having her core cooler on and constantly wet, and tons of water, my dog pulls for the shade. This is why I bring an umbrella. Whenever we stop she’s under it. And I keep it over her as we hike, as much as I can.

Let me see if I can upload a picture.

Anyhow, knowing how that is, I cannot imagine having to hike UP in a barren, steep trail for two hours, in 90 degree heat. I’m being conservative as to the heat at the time they may have been hiking. Depending on the time it could’ve been much higher.
 

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Yeah. This makes sense for a heat-related event. Terrible. They were far too far up the trail and away from the river to make it back in time to cool anyone down.

I think there’s a reason the trail is called “Savage Lundy” and the gulch, “Devil Gulch”. This would be a good, tough climb without it being devoid of any vegetation. It looks like going up that trail from Devil Gulch is probably about a two hour trek. A steep one.

If temps were in the 90’s at the time they were going up, it would be easy to succumb, IMO, and virtually impossible to do without massive amounts of water.

My feeling is you have to be a hiker to get a sense of what they were facing. Especially a western US hiker.

One of my regular hikes is from Irvine Park to Santiago Oaks Canyon, up steep switch backs to the ridge, then down into the canyon, back up, and out Santiago Oaks, looping back to Irvine Park.

It’s about 2.5 hour hike so I do it a lot.

Santiago Oaks has been subject to a couple fires and is pretty barren along the trail going up and then down into the canyon and back up. The trail that connects on the other side from Santiago Oaks, through Irvine Park (which is in a dry wash that is a seasonal stream), is also fairly barren although there are random trees and bushes along the flat trails out.

It gets hot. It can be brutal. And that’s even with a ton of water. If it’s 75 degrees temperature for the area, despite having her core cooler on and constantly wet, and tons of water, my dog pulls for the shade. This is why I bring an umbrella. Whenever we stop she’s under it. And I keep it over her as we hike, as much as I can.

Let me see if I can upload a picture.

Anyhow, knowing how that is, I cannot imagine having to hike UP in a barren, steep trail for two hours, in 90 degree heat. I’m being conservative as to the heat at the time they may have been hiking. Depending on the time it could’ve been much higher.

It looks like you are hiking on the moon in the picture with the flag!
 
It looks like you are hiking on the moon in the picture with the flag!

Right? That’s at the top. We hike up from one canyon to get there. Then down into another canyon (behind me in the flag photo) and then back up out of that canyon, then down again and out. That whole area was affected by fires and is just now growing back after 5 years or so. But it still lacks shade. Just a few small bushes and stuff along much of the trail.

ETA: Also, note that the north and west sides of the area are ringed with homes! So not at all as remote as where these folks were.
 
I notice that when I get into my unshaded car on a hot day, the temp shows higher initially than it does after driving for a moment. But I can't work out what this tells me about where the sensor is located! o_O

I just had this. When I got in my car an hour ago it had been parked in full sun for about 70 mins and the temp read 25°C. After driving for approx. 1 minute it had dropped to 22°C. I always just assumed this was because of air flow past a moving vehicle ‍♀️

I can't imagine that walking would've generated any cooler air flow for the family when they were on the switchbacks heading back up hill. I think the heat intensity would've felt the same if they were stood still, sat down or walking, as their pace was likely so slow to not be able to generate any air flow. It's only when you break into a jog that you can sometimes feel the breeze/air flow past you, and I think it's fair to say that no one would ever be jogging up that section of that trail, so with no immediate options for shade, they were at the mercy of the full sun with no escape.
 
OK, I'm starting to see the issue with Alltrails.

HC trail is the one that starts at Hwy 140 and heads SE toward a spot on the South Fork apparently known as Hite's Cove. This is not where they were.

HC road is in the right vicinity but also not where they were. (it may or may not be what was searched on JG's phone). This trail as labeled on the app starts on pavement in Jerseydale and ends just past the Y where they parked, stopping just at the gate leading to the Savage-Lundy switchbacks.

It seems to me that the ohv road they hiked DOWN was colloquially called Hite's Cove/Hite Cove as well (and at the river, where the family apparently turned right/upstream to hike, if one were to turn left and continue downstream, one would eventually come to the same Hites Cove that the Hwy 140 trailhead leads toward), but Alltrails doesn't label it such nor at all. Nor does Alltrails label the Savage-Lundy trail at all, although both paths are shown on its maps.

Since JG/EC were not new to the area, IMO it's impossible to tell what they were or weren't familiar with.

The route JG searched online, the one that starts at Jerseydale, they ended up driving rather than hiking that day.

MOO
That's exactly the conclusion I am coming to. I think it's possible they descended on the ohv trail, not realizing how far they dropped in elevation because of the gradual slope. Then, not wanting to backtrack up the same way because of the distance, they elected to return up the seemingly shorter (in distance) Savage-Lundy trail, not realizing how exposed and steep it was. MOO

The only problem I see with this scenario would be if they were able to see the landscape down to the S Fork Merced River and get a sense of the Savage-Lundy trail conditions from near the gate where they started their hike. I have not ever been there. Would this have been likely? Googlemaps suggests you might have to go a short distance down the S-L trail to get a good view.
 
Yeah. This makes sense for a heat-related event. Terrible. They were far too far up the trail and away from the river to make it back in time to cool anyone down.

I think there’s a reason the trail is called “Savage Lundy” and the gulch, “Devil Gulch”. This would be a good, tough climb without it being devoid of any vegetation. It looks like going up that trail from Devil Gulch is probably about a two hour trek. A steep one.

If temps were in the 90’s at the time they were going up, it would be easy to succumb, IMO, and virtually impossible to do without massive amounts of water.

My feeling is you have to be a hiker to get a sense of what they were facing. Especially a western US hiker.

One of my regular hikes is from Irvine Park to Santiago Oaks Canyon, up steep switch backs to the ridge, then down into the canyon, back up, and out Santiago Oaks, looping back to Irvine Park.

It’s about 2.5 hour hike so I do it a lot.

Santiago Oaks has been subject to a couple fires and is pretty barren along the trail going up and then down into the canyon and back up. The trail that connects on the other side from Santiago Oaks, through Irvine Park (which is in a dry wash that is a seasonal stream), is also fairly barren although there are random trees and bushes along the flat trails out.

It gets hot. It can be brutal. And that’s even with a ton of water. If it’s 75 degrees temperature for the area, despite having her core cooler on and constantly wet, and tons of water, my dog pulls for the shade. This is why I bring an umbrella. Whenever we stop she’s under it. And I keep it over her as we hike, as much as I can.

Let me see if I can upload a picture.

Anyhow, knowing how that is, I cannot imagine having to hike UP in a barren, steep trail for two hours, in 90 degree heat. I’m being conservative as to the heat at the time they may have been hiking. Depending on the time it could’ve been much higher.


I was reading about Savage Lundy and the trail is actually named after Major James Savage, “discoverer” of Yosemite Valley; and Otto Lundy, a miner and owner of May Lundy Mine.

Although, I completely get what you're saying, and I read reports from fire fighters who have battled wildfires in that region and have said it really is 'savage'. They also stated Devil's Gulch is the type of terrain where the devil would live. It doesn't get much hotter than that to me!
 
Welp, just bought me a hiking thermometer.

I do notice that when I park my car under a tree, the temp it displays is much lower than when I drive it out into the sun, on a hot day. I have no idea where the actual gauge is. I just see the reading on the panel inside the car.

Hiking thermometer is not a bad idea! I do wonder the same though - I wonder how accurate they are or if solar radiation affects it the same way sun vs. shade would.

PS love the avatar LOL
 
Idk if anyone posted this bc I haven't been able to keep up. My apologies.
Here it is in case it hasn't been posted:


Kelsie - thanks so much for sharing this, it was really interesting!

It also brought up a theory I hadn't heard of yet, which is 'could there be a chemical used in the fire retardants that were dumped onto that area in the wildfires a few years back, that is somehow potentially harmful to humans?' I'm not leaning towards that particular theory, though.

In my mind I had it down to either:

1) Heat exhaustion due to the exposure
2) Ground lightning strike

However, after watching the video you shared, I think I'm ready to rule out the lightning option on the basis that according to the information presented there, statistically, only 10% of people hit by lightning, die. So what are the chances that all four of them were struck and died!? That's some crazy odds right there.

They meet the "MO" for a lightning strike in that the overwhelming majority of those struck by lightning are young people, partaking in outdoor activities such as hiking, and specifically in the summer. So everything fits there, but as soon as I heard the stat about only 10% dying, I just thought no way can all four members of that family died by lightning.

By process of elimination, it's coming down to heat exhaustion for me.

MOO
 
That trail is also very narrow. I took one look and my first thought was " broken ankle." It is extremely narrow and very steep. Looking on Google Earth I can see green vegetation, but I think my mapping is deceptive and what looks like shade trees are really shrubs. Either way it is disturbing to picture how very trapped they actually were on that narrow little path in what had to have felt like a furnace or microwave oven.
Thinking back on when I had my heat stroke I do not remember feeling hot. Maybe at first, but I felt numb. We were stupidly at the beach and I was so weak that even though I was surrounded by people I could not say " Help!" All I could think was I am going to die right here on this beach because people just think I am sun bathing.
Heat stroke renderers you just that weak. Unable to utter the word "help." I did exactly what JG did, I sat down and was completely unable to get back up. I had stopped sweating. What I am trying say is that as far as suffering physically, other than no use of my muscles, I do not remember any. I was so close to just falling asleep. I so hope that it was the same for that poor family.
A few people on YouTube insist they were found closer to the river, around the first switchback heading up from Devil's Gulch. Looking at the topography on the video of the helicopter air lifting them out, it matches the landscape and markings, but idk.
This has been so very sad and strangely compelling. I have learned a great deal about heat, algae, ( Who knew?!) and even poison, .
It is amazing what intelligent and empathetic posters are on this website.
 
It also brought up a theory I hadn't heard of yet, which is 'could there be a chemical used in the fire retardants that were dumped onto that area in the wildfires a few years back, that is somehow potentially harmful to humans?' I'm not leaning towards that particular theory, though.
A friend and her husband went camping in an area in California affected by fire two or three months earlier. She said it looked like someone had thrown up pepto bismol (fire retardant) everywhere. Three years later she's still alive and hasn't had any health complaints.
 
In this and other similar cases (Kreycik, Death Valley etc), LE has suggested heat stroke as the most likely cause of death based on environmental conditions. I am baffled why in the Gerrish case, LE is reluctant to suggest that as the COD when the conditions were similar. Is it only because 4 lives perished in this instance (vs 1 in other cases) that they think heat is unlikely to be the culprit? Or do they know something else that rules out heat as the culprit (that they haven't disclosed to the public)?
 
I just had this. When I got in my car an hour ago it had been parked in full sun for about 70 mins and the temp read 25°C. After driving for approx. 1 minute it had dropped to 22°C. I always just assumed this was because of air flow past a moving vehicle ‍♀️

I can't imagine that walking would've generated any cooler air flow for the family when they were on the switchbacks heading back up hill. I think the heat intensity would've felt the same if they were stood still, sat down or walking, as their pace was likely so slow to not be able to generate any air flow. It's only when you break into a jog that you can sometimes feel the breeze/air flow past you, and I think it's fair to say that no one would ever be jogging up that section of that trail, so with no immediate options for shade, they were at the mercy of the full sun with no escape.
I think that's a natural thought, but air flow is only perceived to be cooling due to evaporation of sweat, which only happens to living creatures who sweat!

(this is why a fan going in a closed room doesn't actually lower the temp in the room even though it FEELS cooling to you when you are there)

Upon thought I think the higher standing temp for the car is because of the heat radiating off the hot mass of the car, and once moving that heat is dissipated and actual outside air temp is measured. Except that after a few moments the engine heats up, so if the sensor is near the engine, that dip in temp should be temporary. I can't recall whether I've noticed that or not, will try to pay better attention in the future.
 
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