Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #102

[jjenny]

Interesting that he says that those who have natural immunity to covid-19 may have better immunity to the omicron variant than those who have vaccine immunity, because the mRNA vaccines target the spike program which has now mutated, while natural immunity isn't limited to recognition of the spike protein.

It's all speculation at this point.

 

[jjenny]

Thankfully our Dear @Lilibet and her hubby made it through!!!

I heard Dr. Fauci saying there may be a potential issue with omicron and the effectiveness of monoclonal antibodies as well as convalescent plasma. Anxiously awaiting all the data, as we all are.

I am hearing some outraaaaaaageous numbers on the R-Naught. Delta was around 8ish, one doctor said omnicron could be as high as 50 on TV last night. Let’s see what the formal data says.

Less severe disease, if true, is obviously great news. However, if omicron outcompetes Delta wrt transmissibility and infects more people, then there is even more opportunity for mutations under this sublineage with potentially dangerous characteristics including immune escape. And if treatments and vaccines are not (as) effective, then there could be some serious issues.

Let’s see what the data says. It’s going to a stressful couple of weeks, I think.

And as if things aren’t already bad enough...

Yep, even if it's milder, but much more infectious, if a large number of people gets infected, there bound to be some reacting badly to it. So the hospitals can get full and so on. Especially if our current treatments such as antibodies won't work well against it.

 

[Grouse]

Thankfully our Dear @Lilibet and her hubby made it through!!!

I heard Dr. Fauci saying there may be a potential issue with omicron and the effectiveness of monoclonal antibodies as well as convalescent plasma. Anxiously awaiting all the data, as we all are.

I am hearing some outraaaaaaageous numbers on the R-Naught. Delta was around 8ish, one doctor said omnicron could be as high as 50 on TV last night. Let’s see what the formal data says.

Less severe disease, if true, is obviously great news. However, if omicron outcompetes Delta wrt transmissibility and infects more people, then there is even more opportunity for mutations under this sublineage with potentially dangerous characteristics including immune escape. And if treatments and vaccines are not (as) effective, then there could be some serious issues.

Let’s see what the data says. It’s going to a stressful couple of weeks, I think.

And as if things aren’t already bad enough...

I guess mutations are always going to be a worry. With the Spanish Flu 100 years ago that was what proved so disastrous in the second wave as it mutated to attack younger people with stronger immune systems. I take some comfort from the fact that despite the fact they didn't have the amazing (and rapid) level of technology that we do today, humanity still got through it. We need to be strong.

 

[SouthAussie]

<RSBM>
While no cases of the new variant have been detected in the United States, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told NBC News that mutations displayed by omicron indicate that it may be highly transmissible and able to escape the body’s immune response, including the protection rendered by antibodies induced by the vaccines.

I think we can bet our bottom dollar that the US has cases of the new variant.

We have two cases, and we are not even letting tourists in yet. Only fully vaxxed and negative tested Aussies are arriving.

Both people were asymptomatic, fully vaccinated and in quarantine, said NSW Health.
Australia confirms two cases of Omicron COVID-19 variant

 

[jjenny]

I think we can bet our bottom dollar that the US has cases of the new variant.

We have two cases, and we are not even letting tourists in yet. Only fully vaxxed and negative tested Aussies are arriving.

Both people were asymptomatic, fully vaccinated and in quarantine, said NSW Health.
Australia confirms two cases of Omicron COVID-19 variant

ITA. I am sure omicron is here already. We just don't test extensively for specific variants.

 

[acutename]

A less frightening update. The news seems more positive today.

headache and fatigue.... most people will not get tested just for that IMO

 

[ChatteringBirds]

Yes I have as well. The worst in my opinion was when all the hoarding and stocking up began in 2020. People with supermarket trollies piled high with things they didn't need

In 2020, I did buy 2-weeks-worth of food and some extra bottled water. I wasn't piling the cart high to "hoard" food. It was to have enough for our family in case we needed to quarantine for 14 days. People who contracted Covid-19 (obviously) or who were contact-traced (our bigger fear) were being asked to quarantine for 14 days in 2020.
People just wanted to feel prepared and have a sense of control.

The example of a nurse coming off a 48-hour shift and not being able to find groceries is heartbreaking, though.

 

[HongKongPhooey]

In 2020, I did buy 2-weeks-worth of food and some extra bottled water. I wasn't piling the cart high to "hoard" food. It was to have enough for our family in case we needed to quarantine for 14 days. People who contracted Covid-19 (obviously) or who were contact-traced (our bigger fear) were being asked to quarantine for 14 days in 2020.
People just wanted to feel prepared and have a sense of control.

The example of a nurse coming off a 48-hour shift and not being able to find groceries is heartbreaking, though.

Thanks to the heads up at WS way back, I did stock a "covid cupboard" much to Mr HKP's amusement. Then I got ill on Friday March 20th 2020 and my family had to isolate straight away with no chance to food shop. On March 23rd we went into lockdown and they were very grateful for my little covid cupboard. The only thing we ran out of was fresh milk. I think its good to find that balance between as you say feeling prepared and not going crazy with it.

 

[Cool Cats]

Omicron Variant Isn’t Deadly, South African Medical Chair Claims

Dr. Angelique Coetzee, a private practitioner and chair of the South African Medical Association, was one of the first to notice the new variant.

Coetzee said the symptoms were “mild” in the patients she observed. They mostly consisted of fatigue, body aches and headaches.

“Symptoms at that stage was very much related to normal viral infection. And because we haven’t seen COVID-19 for the past eight to 10 weeks, we decided to test,” she told Reuters.

More patients came in with similar symptoms, which made Coetzee suspect there was “something else going on. We have seen a lot of Delta patients during the third wave. And this doesn’t fit in the clinical picture,” she said. “Most of them are seeing very, very mild symptoms, and none of them, so far, have admitted patients to surgeries. We have been able to treat these patients conservatively at home,” she said.

No loss of smell or taste has been observed, she added. Oxygen levels also remained normal in those infected with the new variant.

Coetzee said Omicron is being primarily observed in people age 40 or younger, and almost half that she treated were not vaccinated.

“The most predominant clinical complaint is severe fatigue for one or two days. With them, the headache and the body aches and pain.”

 

[Turkeytrot]

Omicron variant now in North America, Canadian officials say

 

[LadyL]

Ontario confirms first two cases of Omicron variant in Canada

 

[Turkeytrot]

Omicron Variant Isn’t Deadly, South African Medical Chair Claims

Dr. Angelique Coetzee, a private practitioner and chair of the South African Medical Association, was one of the first to notice the new variant.

Coetzee said the symptoms were “mild” in the patients she observed. They mostly consisted of fatigue, body aches and headaches.

“Symptoms at that stage was very much related to normal viral infection. And because we haven’t seen COVID-19 for the past eight to 10 weeks, we decided to test,” she told Reuters.

More patients came in with similar symptoms, which made Coetzee suspect there was “something else going on. We have seen a lot of Delta patients during the third wave. And this doesn’t fit in the clinical picture,” she said. “Most of them are seeing very, very mild symptoms, and none of them, so far, have admitted patients to surgeries. We have been able to treat these patients conservatively at home,” she said.

No loss of smell or taste has been observed, she added. Oxygen levels also remained normal in those infected with the new variant.

Coetzee said Omicron is being primarily observed in people age 40 or younger, and almost half that she treated were not vaccinated.

“The most predominant clinical complaint is severe fatigue for one or two days. With them, the headache and the body aches and pain.”

There's a NYT article I was just reading about this. I tried linking earlier but sometimes it shows behind a paywall for some reason. But it basically said that scientists are still trying to determine whether it causes more severe illness or not, and that the sample so far is so small that they can't say with certainty if it's mild or not. That most cases so far have been younger people, so they have to see it across a larger demographic.

Seems like 2 weeks or so will be when we find out about transmission and whether it's vaccine resistant.

 

[Grouse]

In 2020, I did buy 2-weeks-worth of food and some extra bottled water. I wasn't piling the cart high to "hoard" food. It was to have enough for our family in case we needed to quarantine for 14 days. People who contracted Covid-19 (obviously) or who were contact-traced (our bigger fear) were being asked to quarantine for 14 days in 2020.
People just wanted to feel prepared and have a sense of control.

The example of a nurse coming off a 48-hour shift and not being able to find groceries is heartbreaking, though.

Yes, same here we bought extra things in case of the need to isolate etc. And, after all the panic buying had ended and stock levels went back to normal we have now always maintained a slightly higher stock level of essentials. I think that is reasonable and sensible. It was that stupid utterly selfish level of OTT panic buying behaviour that we saw that was so disturbing, at levels way beyond what might be needed to get through a 14 day isolation. I ended up in a big argument with a guy who had piled a ridiculous amount of stuff in his trolley, I made quite a fuss and in the end staff actually intervened and made him put some back.

 

[Cool Cats]

There's a NYT article I was just reading about this. I tried linking earlier but sometimes it shows behind a paywall for some reason. But it basically said that scientists are still trying to determine whether it causes more severe illness or not, and that the sample so far is so small that they can't say with certainty if it's mild or not. That most cases so far have been younger people, so they have to see it across a larger demographic.

Seems like 2 weeks or so will be when we find out about transmission and whether it's vaccine resistant.

Trying to see glass 1\2 full at this point. Many Hospitals are too full as is.

85% of Michigan's hospital beds are full, some patients are being turned away

I was lucky I was sick a few months back and could get a bed.

 

[Turkeytrot]

Biden to provide update Monday on US response to omicron variant

 

[Cool Cats]

this is nice but we are not really that great at distributing vaccine quickly- have we gotten any better? - and even if they develop a new vaccine in 100 days (3 mos), it takes us a long time to approve and distribute it and about 2 weeks to have it take full effect in a vaccinated person... a month and a half if we need 2 doses...we are talking about a year of lock down IMO.

Seems pretty quick.

Moderna said it might release an updated COVID-19 vaccine to combat the new Omicron variant by early 2022.

"We should know about the ability of the current vaccine to provide protection in the next couple of weeks," Chief Medical Officer Paul Burton said Sunday on the BBC's "Andrew Marr Show."

"If we have to make a brand new vaccine, I think that's going to be early 2022 before that's really going to be available in large quantities," Burton continued.

Moderna says it might release a modified COVID-19 vaccine for the Omicron variant by early 2022

 

[jjenny]

Seems pretty quick.

Moderna said it might release an updated COVID-19 vaccine to combat the new Omicron variant by early 2022.

"We should know about the ability of the current vaccine to provide protection in the next couple of weeks," Chief Medical Officer Paul Burton said Sunday on the BBC's "Andrew Marr Show."

"If we have to make a brand new vaccine, I think that's going to be early 2022 before that's really going to be available in large quantities," Burton continued.

Moderna says it might release a modified COVID-19 vaccine for the Omicron variant by early 2022

Once mRNA vaccine exists, it's very easy to change it to make one against a variant. They just have to change an original sequence to the variant sequence. Whether it's going to work against something that infectious is another story.

 

[Lilibet]

Editorial opinion piece by Zeynep Tufekci, who has written regularly about the pandemic. While true, IMO her recommendations are but a pipe dream for the U.S.

Opinion | Omicron Is Coming. The U.S. Must Act Now.

The travel ban from several southern African countries announced by President Biden on Friday exempts American citizens and permanent residents, other than requiring them to be tested. But containment needs to target the pathogen, not the passports. As a precaution, travel should be restricted for both foreign nationals and U.S. citizens from countries where the variant is known to be spreading more widely until we have more clarity.

We need stricter testing regimes involving multiple tests over time and even quarantine requirements for all travelers according to the incubation period determined by epidemiological data. We also need more intensive and widespread testing and tracing to cut off the spread of the variant. This means finally getting the sort of mass testing program that the United States has avoided and which has been part of successful responses to Covid in other countries.

If we aren’t willing to do all that, there is little point in a blanket ban on a few nationalities.

 

[anneg]

Editorial opinion piece by Zeynep Tufekci, who has written regularly about the pandemic. While true, IMO her recommendations are but a pipe dream for the U.S.

Opinion | Omicron Is Coming. The U.S. Must Act Now.

The travel ban from several southern African countries announced by President Biden on Friday exempts American citizens and permanent residents, other than requiring them to be tested. But containment needs to target the pathogen, not the passports. As a precaution, travel should be restricted for both foreign nationals and U.S. citizens from countries where the variant is known to be spreading more widely until we have more clarity.

We need stricter testing regimes involving multiple tests over time and even quarantine requirements for all travelers according to the incubation period determined by epidemiological data. We also need more intensive and widespread testing and tracing to cut off the spread of the variant. This means finally getting the sort of mass testing program that the United States has avoided and which has been part of successful responses to Covid in other countries.

If we aren’t willing to do all that, there is little point in a blanket ban on a few nationalities.

Thanks for posting this link, @Lilibet. I meant to do that and got involved with other things.

Here is a link to another Zeynep article, another interesting read, published about 9 days before the omicron one.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/18/opinion/covid-winter-risk.html

After a Pandemic Failure, the U.S. Needs a New Public Spirit

Excerpt:
The pandemic has proved to be a nearly two-year stress test that the United States flunked, with an already distrustful populace exposed to a level of institutional failure that added fuel to the angry battles over how to respond. Dr. Martin Cetron, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention veteran of battles against Ebola in Africa, described people’s losing confidence during an epidemic as a “bankruptcy of trust.” Right now, America is bankrupt.

It once seemed that if the United States ever faced a viral pandemic, it would be more than up to the challenge. Just weeks before the first Covid-19 cases were reported in China, the United States was ranked No. 1 out of 195 countries in pandemic preparedness by experts convened by Johns Hopkins University, The Economist and others. After all, the C.D.C. is one of the most respected public health institutions in the world, and the United States is home to many of the world’s leading pharmaceutical companies and academic research institutions.

The fact that the United States fared so poorly, despite all the seeming advantages that dazzled those experts, is a profound sign of how decayed our institutions and capacity have become. To understand how we fell so far short and to navigate a second full Covid winter and future pandemics and challenges requiring collective action, it’s important to review the outbreak’s early days to see why the United States — once considered the global leader in public health — is floundering in mistrust, paranoia and exhaustion.

(more at link if you can access the article)

 

[katydid23]

Fully Vaccinated People Just as Likely to Spread Delta Variant Within Households as Unvaccinated

Fully vaccinated people are just as likely to spread the Delta variant of Covid within households as unvaccinated, according to a new Lancet study.

DEFINE_ME

Researchers in the United Kingdom examined 621 symptomatic people over one year.

“Although vaccines remain highly effective at preventing severe disease and deaths from COVID-19, our findings suggest that vaccination is not sufficient to prevent transmission of the delta variant in household settings with prolonged exposures,” the study said.

In contrast, researchers noted that the vaccination was more effective at curbing transmission of the alpha variant within the household, at between 40 and 50 percent.

“Households are the site of most SARS-CoV-2 transmission globally. In our cohort of densely sampled household contacts exposed to the delta variant, SAR was 38% in unvaccinated contacts and 25% in fully vaccinated contacts. This finding is consistent with the known protective effect of COVID-19 vaccination against infection.8, 9 Notwithstanding, these findings indicate continued risk of infection in household contacts despite vaccination.” the study said.