PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, former district attorney, Bellefonte, 15 Apr 2005 - #17

[Black Diamond]

If I did this right, here is a photo of the bridge taken from the spot along the bank where the drive was likely tossed. The laptop was by the support pillar on the left, partially obscured by trees.

I would love to know for sure exactly where they were found. Would really make it easier to rule a few things out and focus on some higher probability scenarios.

 

[bookworm2012]

I parked in the SOS lot a few times to go shopping around the years of the disappearance.... before and after. There were no designated parking spots, just a big gravel lot at the time (haven't been there since, is it still the same?) The lot was never anywhere near full, just a few cars would be there , as SOS is sort of off by itself. I remember after it happened, visited and parked there as before, but now looked up at the windows of the house at 113 N. Water St . overlooking the parking lot (Google maps makes it look like the view is blocked by trees, but it wasn't.) I had to wonder if the residents were ever interviewed. That was about the extent of my "sleuthing" but still intrigued by this mystery. Anyway thanks for keeping this case alive.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I would love to know for sure exactly where they were found. Would really make it easier to rule a few things out and focus on some higher probability scenarios.

That is the only location of which I am familiar.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I parked in the SOS lot a few times to go shopping around the years of the disappearance.... before and after. There were no designated parking spots, just a big gravel lot at the time (haven't been there since, is it still the same?) The lot was never anywhere near full, just a few cars would be there , as SOS is sort of off by itself. I remember after it happened, visited and parked there as before, but now looked up at the windows of the house at 113 N. Water St . overlooking the parking lot (Google maps makes it look like the view is blocked by trees, but it wasn't.) I had to wonder if the residents were ever interviewed. That was about the extent of my "sleuthing" but still intrigued by this mystery. Anyway thanks for keeping this case alive.

The police reports show that residents of the block were interviewed, though not specifically at that address. Attached are two photos of the lot from 2008 or 2009.

Welcome!!!

 

[bookworm2012]

The police reports show that residents of the block were interviewed, though not specifically at that address. Attached are two photos of the lot from 2008 or 2009.

Welcome!!!

Thanks!!

 

[Ozoner]

If the situation was that Ray drowned himself—possibly swimming miles downstream first—and his body simply wasn't found, then it will likely never be solved except by blind luck (if a fisherman reels in a human skull, for instance). Even that wouldn't truly solve the case because we wouldn't know for certain if Ray's death was a suicide; we would know that he was dead, however.

If Ray was murdered, then it won't be solved unless somebody talks—and that hasn't happened in 17 years—or, again, by blind luck. Any potential perps could easily be dead themselves at this point.

This case is not going to be solved based on the information that's already in the files, in my opinion.

Drowning victims can be difficult to find, even in shallow water. Some float to the surface within a few days, some float to the surface within a few weeks, and some never float to the surface. The ones that do float to the surface remain mostly below the surface and are difficult to spot during broad daylight let alone at night. Some become entangled in large masses of debris that collect in certain locations along the bank. Some become covered in silt.

In my opinion, a suicide by drowning is an order of magnitude more likely than foul play, and foul play is an order of magnitude more likely than any remaining scenario.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

In the 17 years and roughly four months there have been numerous drowning cases in the West Branch of the Susquehanna River, the river that runs through Lewisburg. All have been recovered. None were subject to the same level of search activity as was RFG's, both by official searches and unofficial ones.

In the Susquehanna as a whole, I only know of one body not recovered; this was from the branch that did not flow through Lewisburg. It was in the winter when the river was partly frozen over and, due to temperatures, the search was limited. Even the body of a weighted down murder victim was found.

I have to conclude that it is incredibly unlikely that RFG committed suicide by jumping or walking into the Susquehanna or that his remains were dumped there postmortem.

 

[Ozoner]

In the 17 years and roughly four months there have been numerous drowning cases in the West Branch of the Susquehanna River, the river that runs through Lewisburg. All have been recovered. None were subject to the same level of search activity as was RFG's, both by official searches and unofficial ones.

Snipped

You keep repeating that same information even though it's irrelevant with respect to this case. The sample size is very small, and the circumstances are different in every drowning. In many cases, searchers might have known where someone went under, and that makes searching much easier. Ray might have swum for miles downstream before going under—or not. If he drowned, we have no idea where he went under. That one variable significantly increased the probability that his body would not be found.

In any drowning, other variables can come into play as well, including the water temperature, the body composition of the drowning victim—someone with low body fat might never surface—what time of day the body surfaces, whether it gets lodged under a pile of debris, etc.

Some drowning victims are never found. Regardless of how common that is on the Susquehanna, it is the most likely explanation in this particular case.

 

[Betty P]

Snipped

You keep repeating that same information even though it's irrelevant with respect to this case. The sample size is very small, and the circumstances are different in every drowning. In many cases, searchers might have known where someone went under, and that makes searching much easier. Ray might have swum for miles downstream before going under—or not. If he drowned, we have no idea where he went under. That one variable significantly increased the probability that his body would not be found.

In any drowning, other variables can come into play as well, including the water temperature, the body composition of the drowning victim—someone with low body fat might never surface—what time of day the body surfaces, whether it gets lodged under a pile of debris, etc.

Some drowning victims are never found. Regardless of how common that is on the Susquehanna, it is the most likely explanation in this particular case.

I agree with both of you, but moreso with JJ. We're talking probabilities here, not possibilities. Add to that, most suicide victims exhibit some sort of behavior beforehand that indicates a problem. Ray knew and interacted with a lot of people in his daily life, including prior to him going missing. No one saw anything resembling suicidal behavior. Just because Ray's brother committed suicide many years ago doesn't mean he would do the same.

He was a busy, responsible professional who was making some very active plans for his retirement.

One of the questions I have is why he brought his laptop computer along on a "playing hooky" day off? According to family, that wasn't his habit. JMO, he was there for work. Someone had arranged to meet him there. That's why he was seen at those locations near the SOS and the museum down the street. He was moving his car around, probably to make sure the person he was meeting could see it. He may have told them to look for my Mini-Cooper, it will be parked near the SOS or museum. Whomever it was they were running late. I'll have to go back to find names, but one of the women at the museum who saw him said he walked around, sat in the park and it looked like he was looking towards traffic coming off the bridge. If so, was he expecting someone to approach from that direction?

Is it possible Ray had a "burner" phone that he used to contact people whose identities they didn't want revealed? He possibly took his laptop along to record and possibly share information. He was focused on erasing files from his laptop many months before he was due to retire. Is it possible there was something on his laptop that he wanted erased sooner?

This is all JMO

 

[Betty P]

The police reports show that residents of the block were interviewed, though not specifically at that address. Attached are two photos of the lot from 2008 or 2009.

Welcome!!!

What could have happened in that parking lot? Was a meeting held there? Is that the area where a witness reported seeing someone leaning into the passenger window of Ray's car?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped

You keep repeating that same information even though it's irrelevant with respect to this case. The sample size is very small, and the circumstances are different in every drowning. In many cases, searchers might have known where someone went under, and that makes searching much easier. Ray might have swum for miles downstream before going under—or not. If he drowned, we have no idea where he went under. That one variable significantly increased the probability that his body would not be found.

In any drowning, other variables can come into play as well, including the water temperature, the body composition of the drowning victim—someone with low body fat might never surface—what time of day the body surfaces, whether it gets lodged under a pile of debris, etc.

Some drowning victims are never found. Regardless of how common that is on the Susquehanna, it is the most likely explanation in this particular case.

It is quite relevant, because the such was much more extensive. For example, on 4/17/05, LE searched the Susquehanna by air, and they searched it to at least Sunbury, if not further south. They went downstream on a boat with a cadaver dog. This was in addition to the boats and divers in the immediate area.

There were also informal searches, i.e. people getting kayaks and checking the river that way. One of our former members did go out and search along the shore for evidence. Though not in his case, people were hoping to find something that would get them a reward.

Some drowning victims are never found - - - but not in the West Branch of the Susquehanna.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

One of the questions I have is why he brought his laptop computer along on a "playing hooky" day off? According to family, that wasn't his habit. JMO, he was there for work. Someone had arranged to meet him there. That's why he was seen at those locations near the SOS and the museum down the street. He was moving his car around, probably to make sure the person he was meeting could see it. He may have told them to look for my Mini-Cooper, it will be parked near the SOS or museum. Whomever it was they were running late. I'll have to go back to find names, but one of the women at the museum who saw him said he walked around, sat in the park and it looked like he was looking towards traffic coming off the bridge. If so, was he expecting someone to approach from that direction?

Is it possible Ray had a "burner" phone that he used to contact people whose identities they didn't want revealed? He possibly took his laptop along to record and possibly share information. He was focused on erasing files from his laptop many months before he was due to retire. Is it possible there was something on his laptop that he wanted erased sooner?

This is all JMO

Snipped for brevity only.

People did notice that RFG was acting unusually from about March 8-9, if not earlier. He was variously described as "tired" and napping, "distraught," and "wasn't with it." At the 4/14/05 Prison Board meeting, he was described as mumbling answers and staring out the window. It was a change, though not necessarily a sign of suicide or even depression.

RFG could have had a burner phone, but it would be unlikely to be used for anything job related; if there anything involving discovery, he would have to disclose it. If RFG had a woman on the side, I could understand him using it, so PEF wouldn't find out.

The witness (Snyder) said that RFG was looking at the river, not the bridge.


As for the laptop, it looks like RFG wanted something not just erased, but totally unrecoverable.

 

[Ozoner]

Some drowning victims are never found - - - but not in the West Branch of the Susquehanna.

Snipped.

Again, you don't have a large enough sample size to be able to make that statement.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

What could have happened in that parking lot? Was a meeting held there? Is that the area where a witness reported seeing someone leaning into the passenger window of Ray's car?

I have not found an account of that witness yet. It would be in the same lot, if not the same location.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped.

Again, you don't have a large enough sample size to be able to make that statement.

We do not have any that were never found.

 

[Betty P]

I have not found an account of that witness yet. It would be in the same lot, if not the same location.

I have to go find that, too. I listened to a couple of good podcasts on Ray's case, but was out walking and couldn't take notes. I haven't had much spare time lately, but would like to do some in depth study on this when I get a chance.

 

[Black Diamond]

If the situation was that Ray drowned himself—possibly swimming miles downstream first—and his body simply wasn't found, then it will likely never be solved except by blind luck (if a fisherman reels in a human skull, for instance). Even that wouldn't truly solve the case because we wouldn't know for certain if Ray's death was a suicide; we would know that he was dead, however.

If Ray was murdered, then it won't be solved unless somebody talks—and that hasn't happened in 17 years—or, again, by blind luck. Any potential perps could easily be dead themselves at this point.

This case is not going to be solved based on the information that's already in the files, in my opinion.

Drowning victims can be difficult to find, even in shallow water. Some float to the surface within a few days, some float to the surface within a few weeks, and some never float to the surface. The ones that do float to the surface remain mostly below the surface and are difficult to spot during broad daylight let alone at night. Some become entangled in large masses of debris that collect in certain locations along the bank. Some become covered in silt.

In my opinion, a suicide by drowning is an order of magnitude more likely than foul play, and foul play is an order of magnitude more likely than any remaining scenario.

I think you’re spot on with some of this:
-this case won’t be solved with the current information. If someone talks, or Ray’s body is found (dead or alive!), would be the only 2 plausible case solvers at this point.
-he could have died by suicide, and if so the case is extremely unlikely to ever be solved because (almost surely) nobody is alive that knows he committed, so nobody is providing information to support it.

I disagree with your probabilities though. The Susquehanna is a super shallow river with a lot of fishermen and boaters using it. A suicided body in April had all the busy boating months to be found that year in that shallow water. Even if he somehow floated miles downstream before drowning like you say, his body would have eventually caught up somewhere or floated through urban Harrisburg where there are hundreds of peoples eyes on that river every hour. Yes, it’s possible he committed in the river, but the probability that it actually happened is super low.

Do you have a reason walk off is not plausible in your opinion? I know it’s hard for a person to disappear and stay hidden in a new life in this day in age, but there’s no major evidence against the theory that I can see otherwise. Interested in your point of view on that.

 

[Betty P]

We do not have any that were never found.

The argument has also been made that, had Ray actually committed suicide by jumping off the bridge, etc., someone would have seen him. Apparently, that bridge sees a lot of traffic. The water was also very shallow at that time. If you look at photos of divers searching the river, you'll see the water was only chest high on them.

I also can't see him swimming downriver prior to drowning. Not sure why he would do that. If he really wanted to commit suicide, there would have been other, easier ways to do it.

ETA: Oops! I just saw Black Diamond's post, which says much of what I was thinking. For now, though, I'm still thinking foul play is possible, with his body disposed of elsewhere.

 

[Ozoner]

We do not have any that were never found.

But you don't have very many drownings, period. The number of drownings isn't great enough to be useful. That's what you're failing to grasp.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The argument has also been made that, had Ray actually committed suicide by jumping off the bridge, etc., someone would have seen him. Apparently, that bridge sees a lot of traffic. The water was also very shallow at that time. If you look at photos of divers searching the river, you'll see the water was only chest high on them.

I also can't see him swimming downriver prior to drowning. Not sure why he would do that. If he really wanted to commit suicide, there would have been other, easier ways to do it.

ETA: Oops! I just saw Black Diamond's post, which says much of what I was thinking. For now, though, I'm still thinking foul play is possible, with his body disposed of elsewhere.

It could be possible, late at night, to jump off the bridge and not be seen, though it still might not be probable; the bridge has lights on it. He could jumped from a disused railroad bridge upstream a bit; he would have had to climb over a barrier to get on it.

As for swimming, RFG was not a strong swimmer and did not appear to take of his shoes before going into the water. His fleece was not found on the bank. The idea that he could swim any great distance is really strained.

There is a lot recreational usage of the Susquehanna, including fishing. 4/16/05 was the first day of trout season. As I indicated, kayak rentals went up, because people were renting them to go out and look for clues.

Further, RFG could have committed suicide and not jumped into the river. He could have been murdered and the body was not dumped in the Susquehanna.