Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #11

[StillDiggin]

#MISSING | Have you seen Nicola Bulley, who has gone missing from home in Inskip?

Nicola, 45, was last seen at around 9.15am today (Friday, January 27th) on the footpath by the river off Garstang Road in St Michael’s on Wyre.

She is described as white, 5ft 3ins tall, with light brown shoulder-length hair. She speaks with an Essex accent.

She was last seen wearing a long black gilet jacket with a hood, black jeans and olive green ankle wellies. Her hair was tied into a ponytail.

Immediately prior to going missing she was walking her dog, described as a brown-coloured Spaniel. Although the dog has since been found close to where we believe Nicola was last seen, we hope this might help jog the memory of anybody who saw her at around the same time and who may have information about where she was going.
Lancashire Police

Nicola Jane Bulley FB page
Nikki Bulley - Mortgage Adviser - FB page
Nikki Bulley - Strava Runner Profile page


Media, Maps & Timeline *NO DISCUSSION* THREAD

Thread #1 Thread #2 Thread #3 Thread #4 Thread #5 Thread #6 Thread #7 Thread #8 Thread #9
Thread #10

3 Feb 2023​

 

[Sillybilly]

Please continue discussion here.

All members are expected to familiarize themselves with Websleuths rules found here, and also linked in my signature.

We aren't going to reinvent the wheel by repeat posting of all the rules, reminders, the Dos and Don'ts.

Additionally, links to and discussion of fundraising is not allowed unless it is a fundraiser run by close friends or family AND even then, the only thing allowed is a possible snippet of a previously unknown fact regarding the specifics of the case itself (i.e. wearing black sneakers, or ??). The actual $ figures and how it is progressing or not are off limits.

 

[Darling136]

Please proceed here with discussion, thanks!

 

[ginnyw]

Thanks, moderators. Sterling work as ever.

 

[Pinkizzy]

Is it possible to backdate snapchat map images from 2 weeks ago?

 

[tallmansix]

There is evidence it was high probability she was by the river, previous Strava data.

"The best predictor of future behaviour, is past behaviour".

If she was right at the edge of the river, there would not be visible slip marks. While GPS/Strava is not 100% accurate (it can be a few mtrs out), her account does - on multiple occasions - show her moving backwards and forwards, and in circles, near the river opposite the bench. With this depth of regular recorded movement, it IMO makes a fall likely.

It's completely feasible and credible that she was close to the river and fell in.

I wouldn't read too much into the squiggles on the Strava map.

I'm sitting on a bench having a break for 15 mins during a long cycle ride, looks like I'm moving all over but 100% I was sitting on a bench and not moving throughout.

 

[ruby925]

I may have missed this as so much to read through, but is it known how/why the school was alerted and then called PA re Willow and NB's fone? Would the phone have been locked by this time? Did someone at the scene (eg a parent from the school) recognize Willow and know NB from the school gate? Is the time of this call from the school to PA public knowledge?
Quote from Ch5 interview transcription
"Paul - Yeah, lunchtime, go to the gym. We're (or were?? were is typical of Yorkshire accent, not Lancashire), going to leave, and then the phone rang and it was the school, and it was the receptionist at school and she said 'Mr. Ansell, it's a bit of a weird one, but we've found Willow and Nikki's phone on the bench and the harness halfway down the embankment on the floor."

 

[imstilla.grandma]

 

[Firstsnow4]

Is it possible to backdate snapchat map images from 2 weeks ago?

Do you mean the heat maps where someone snaps from a location? I’m not sure as I don’t really know the app.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

The idea that she threw the phone as she was falling and it landed near the bench is fanciful. It's really some distance and up a slope - look at photos - and has a concrete surround.

As far as I recall the police have confirmed the phone was on the bench. Makes perfect sense given the conference call and loudspeaker. But even if it wasn't, an agitated dog could have knocked it off. People keep going around in circles on this. Does not really affect the slipping scenario...

I completely agree with you that the phone was most likely on the bench. More than anything I was just thinking about the slim chance that the phone GPS could have actually shown Nicola was in the river. That would be pretty conclusive data.

 

[tallmansix]

I completely agree with you that the phone was most likely on the bench. More than anything I was just thinking about the slim chance that the phone GPS could have actually shown Nicola was in the river. That would be pretty conclusive data.

See my post above, no chance of that happening. I'm sitting on a bench and Strava maps show me taking a dip in the canal and walking in circles. GPS tracking is not that accurate, especially when stationary as it can't smooth out the waypoints into an average route.

 

[Mr X]

Presumably it has been established that the MP only had one phone with her.

My other half has a work phone as well as her own personal phone.

I would have thought someone working in financial services would need to have two different phones for privacy and security reasons.

 

[PremierKissov]

I may have missed this as so much to read through, but is it known how/why the school was alerted and then called PA re Willow and NB's fone? Would the phone have been locked by this time? Did someone at the scene (eg a parent from the school) recognize Willow and know NB from the school gate? Is the time of this call from the school to PA public knowledge?
Quote from Ch5 interview transcription
"Paul - Yeah, lunchtime, go to the gym. We're (or were?? were is typical of Yorkshire accent, not Lancashire), going to leave, and then the phone rang and it was the school, and it was the receptionist at school and she said 'Mr. Ansell, it's a bit of a weird one, but we've found Willow and Nikki's phone on the bench and the harness halfway down the embankment on the floor."

Haven't seen the programme so must trust the transcript, but the way Paul has worded that ("WE'VE found Willow... and the harness halfway down the embankment") sounds like the receptionist and perhaps somebody else from the school may have visited the scene herself before making the call. If so then this would account for another chunk of the time interval between Nicola last being seen and the police being called.

 

[Mr X]

See my post above, no chance of that happening. I'm sitting on a bench and Strava maps show me taking a dip in the canal and walking in circles. GPS tracking is not that accurate, especially when stationary as it can't smooth out the waypoints into an average route.

The same thing happens with boats which have AIS (automatic identification system). This is a collision avoidance system using GPS and radio signals.
If a vessel is left berthed in one spot the location via GPS can be scattered and will show up on tracking as moving around with sharp points.
This is how GPS works. Of course if the app on the phone knows that the phone is stationary perhaps it switches off the GPS until movement is detected.

I don't know how phone GPS is processed but it is software assisted so there could be settings in the app to allow for errors when stationary.

Why someone would upload their walks to a web server is beyond me.

ETA example of an AIS record. This is the impounded russian superyacht at Canary wharf. It will have a high quality class A AIS transponder on it. The location appears to vary (blue lines) but the boat doesn't move more than a few inches as it is tied to the wharfside.

GPS tracking error.

.

 

[Belleville]

Haven't seen the programme so must trust the transcript, but the way Paul has worded that ("WE'VE found Willow... and the harness halfway down the embankment") sounds like the receptionist and perhaps somebody else from the school may have visited the scene herself before making the call. If so then this would account for another chunk of the time interval between Nicola last being seen and the police being called.

I would say we've in the situation. Rather than spending ages explaining who found it. Just a generic we've

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

See my post above, no chance of that happening. I'm sitting on a bench and Strava maps show me taking a dip in the canal and walking in circles. GPS tracking is not that accurate, especially when stationary as it can't smooth out the waypoints into an average route.

Thank you, that's great information. So realistically, the best the GPS can do is prove Nicola's movements on that day didn't differ from what would be expected. If the phone moved along a typical route and came to a rest at the bench without any strange pauses or deviations, it can at least be presumed (though not proven) that Nicola was the one who was carrying the phone the entire time and that the bench was her last known location.

 

[tallmansix]

The same thing happens with boats which have AIS (automatic identification system). This is a collision avoidance system using GPS and radio signals.
If a vessel is left berthed in one spot the location via GPS can be scattered and will show up on tracking as moving around with sharp points.
This is how GPS works. Of course if the app on the phone knows that the phone is stationary perhaps it switches off the GPS until movement is detected.

I don't know how phone GPS is processed but it is software assisted so there could be settings in the app to allow for errors when stationary.

Why someone would upload their walks to a web server is beyond me.

Yes, so you can actually set apps like Strava to "auto pause" when they think you are stationary and it will avoid the squiggles on the map, but I find it doesn't always restart after a pause so I stopped using it.

The squiggles really show up the relative accuracy of GPS, in both my case and NB we are outdoors in the open with a good GPS signal (ie can see all skylines and horizons). GPS is nothing to do with mobile phone signal strength as some people think - purely the ability to listen to many satellites in the sky and doesn't send any data only receives from the satellites.

As for uploading outdoor activities to "a web server" is beyond you, that's your opinion, for many others, it is part of a healthy lifestyle that encourages recognition for activities, motivation and social interaction.

 

[GTB72]

Apologies if already posted but this is a good video re the case.

 

[tallmansix]

Thank you, that's great information. So realistically, the best the GPS can do is prove Nicola's movements on that day didn't differ from what would be expected. If the phone moved along a typical route and came to a rest at the bench without any strange pauses or deviations, it can at least be presumed (though not proven) that Nicola was the one who was carrying the phone the entire time and that the bench was her last known location.

So the best GPS can do is record the location of the phone, collaborating that with the person's location need another bit of evidence to prove they had the phone in their possession at the time.

From what I can see, there is no Strava recorded for that day, but it might be privately recorded on the profile.

It is known NB had a Fitbit, without knowing the model it may well just be counting steps but some models are GPS capable as well or can use the GPS from the phone they are tethered with to record a route, but again nothing stated so far to say these were recording GPS location.

In the absence of the above, a phone doesn't necessarily keep any records of GPS location. Hence, it is not really clear what technical forensics will be able to discover about the location of the phone during that morning.

 

[Mr X]

In the absence of the above, a phone doesn't necessarily keep any records of GPS location. Hence, it is not really clear what technical forensics will be able to discover about the location of the phone during that morning.

There was some talk (not from LE) that accelerometer data may be automatically stored by the phone. IMO it's also possible that GPS data is in fact stored regardless of what apps you have on the device.

This type of data being routinely stored for short periods of time is obviously handy in precisely this type of situation .

If you give the phone permission to access your location then it is accessing your location. Presumably this permission remains in place until you turn off the location function.

I quite often turn off location on my android phone as it prolongs battery life with it off. When I put it back on it asks for permission to collect data.