What you are saying is correct and supports the police theory. However, what I don't understand then is the person who found the dog and phone will surely have looked in the river and presumably saw nothing to point to this scenario. From day one the Police have gone all in on a tragic accident and if they are wrong then chief superintendent Riley will be collecting her pension, for her to be right your theory needs to be what happened, for your theory to be true then the person finding the phone and dog didn't look in the water as she'd still be there and I really struggle to see anyone not thinking to look there
The last confirmed sighting of NB was at 09:10
The police know by having had technical specialists inspect her phone that she was on that bench and put her phone on that bench shortly after that.
She would have been throwing sticks or suchlike to keep Willow entertained whilst listening in to her work call. At around 09:20 something occurred which caused her to stand up. The most obvious cause would be Willow. She either went inside some bushes or too near the water. Whatever, that’s the approximate time she IMO tumbled into the river and went under. Thirteen minutes later the caravan park lady passed by and noticed Willow distressed. She may well have glanced at the river, but she wouldn’t have seen NB if she’d drowned as she’d have been under the water on the riverbed, not moving, and being dressed in dark blue and black clothing there’d be no sight of her beneath the dark muddy river.
IMO this is the most obvious scenario.
The scenario some people talk of, saying maybe she was abducted by a man, maybe two men, would mean when they supposedly bundled her off, struggling, screaming and Willow frantically barking, the caravan lady who was
right in the vicinity never saw then, never heard screaming, never heard shouting, never heard frantic barking, never heard footsteps - and never saw a thing. And all in broad daylight. And there was no traces of a struggle, drag marks, blood stains, phone cutting off, no forensics of strange fingerprints, footprints, hairs, fibres, unknown phone signals, no cctv of an abduction, and not one single other person saw or heard anything violent, either….