On a slightly different note to discussion of all the new information and subsequent media furore - one thing that I noted yesterday was that search area maps have now been published in the latest release, showing the areas covered on land and water in the latest statement.
The latest news and information for Lancashire Constabulary
www.lancashire.police.uk
I have kept clear of posting ‘theories’, but I do think seeing the search areas opens up some potential (if slim) scenarios outside of entering the river that may not have been searched… and have gone down a bit of a rabbit hole this evening combining mapping with misper behaviour stats (mainly from Missing Person Behaviour, Robert J. Koester, 2008 and some commonly repeated things I have heard in SAR volunteering). I want to be clear that I am not implying anything about NB when citing possible misper characteristics or behaviours.
Equally, none of this is to say that these areas haven’t been checked, discounted or not considered, or that this is new info - I am sure the search experts in the investigation are all over it. But I enjoy maps, so…
If my understanding of the CCTV gap is correct (if not, please do shout idiot! At me), it does seem that she could have left the immediate bench area by crossing Blackpool Lane at the bridge and continuing downstream towards Great Eccleston on the river path, and (as yet?) has not been picked up doing so on dashcam footage.
You can clearly see the gate opposite the exit path via google street view. If someone were being deliberately evasive - this route offers less chance of being spotted by CCTV/cars than turning left or right on the main road. As well as alternatively offering a straight route to somebody in a confused/altered state of mind.
If she had wanted to go missing for whatever reason - this route (as well as allowing access to the river beyond the weir) could give access across fields northwards to Skitham Lane or westwards to Lancaster Road via the footpath network.
Again, LE may have these points covered by CCTV, or have evidence they’ve not shared that say that is not the case - drone and helicopter searches on the day of her disappearance for instance may have covered this area. But IMO that area of farmland seems the next most likely area after the water to either leave via, or be found within.
It’s mainly open, but does have some small wooded areas that don’t appear to fall into the land and water search maps shared. The boundaries between wooded and open land, particularly facing south, are known to be common choices for those considering ending their life to be found. (As are scenic or personally meaningful spots, ‘just out of sight’)
That would then cover up to roughly 8km from her last known location, in what I believe is the most likely direction of travel based on what we have heard (if she did manage to leave the bench area).
Whilst it can vary greatly depending on the misper and their vulnerabilities and we don’t know which characteristics apply here - the stats from Lost Person Behaviour (Robert J. Koester, 2008) suggest that 95% of mispers with mental illness are found within 8.1km of their last known location, despondent mispers 95% are found within 17.3km (so a bit broader, often due to travelling to meaningful locations, though 75% are found within 2.3km), and intoxicated mispers are 95% 9.7km.
I’m not sure if this is at all interesting to anyone, but if she is not recovered from the water. I’d wonder about searching this area/looking at any exit point footage next.
At a normal walking pace, you’d be looking at roughly 90 minutes to get to the NW corner of that next set of fields.
However, if we are to assume that she has voluntarily gone missing - those exit points on Skitham Lane and Lancaster Road are not on bus routes (other than school buses, as far as I can tell), so would perhaps only be useful for onward journeys if being picked up by someone in a car.
Arguably, you could also make it via those footpaths to the south (assuming leaving the bench at 9:20) to bus stops in Great Ecclestone by 11/11:30. (So before an alarm is raised beyond the immediate area, and ahead of search teams along those routes).
There are then seemingly buses on Fridays from there to St Anne’s (11:38), Blackpool (11:48), Preston (11:15, 12:15) travelling west
Great Eccleston, by Square – bustimes.org
Or eastbound to Fleetwood (11:58) or Garstang (12:14)
Great Eccleston, by White Bull – bustimes.org
Again, unsure if helpful or interesting in any way shape or form - but I think it does provide potential alternatives to having gone into the river, that fit with the evidence (or lack thereof) we know about at this point.
Of course, if she had travelled onwards, unless it was with help - you would probably have expected some sightings to emerge - particularly if going into Great Eccleston or continuing by bus.
Terribly illustrated map attached to explain visually…
Green = areas covered in police search maps (the bench area is to the right off the map)
Black arrow = Possible route through CCTV dead zone
Yellow = possible land search area/footpath network
Blue = possible western and northern exit points accessed from footpaths
Red = possible footpath route to bus stops in Great Ecclestone
View attachment 403269
news.sky.com
