Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #17

[DazN]

This measuring gauge is further UP away from the Weir and it shows a significant rise the morning before the body was found. Kirkland Bridge. Well above the Weir.

GaugeMap – Latest River, Flow and Groundwater Levels Map for Britain & Ireland

River, Flow and Groundwater level updates from over 3,000 Environment Agency stations.

www.gaugemap.co.uk

An increase of 600mm in the early morning. It must be the tide or some water being added from somewhere else very quickly. IMO the tide.


Spring tides do go over that Weir IMO.

Wow I looked at the stations along the Wyre and they were all raised... Does that mean the incoming tide came up the Wyre, or are the raised levels from lakes at the source?

 

[Agatha3]

Because his very first comments on the case were very negative, he said that the police's investigation was ' a mess' and that they'd been 'foolish' and then he claimed that they had ruled out any 3rd party involvement ' without checking' when that was false. No idea why he would want to ' take them down a peg or two' or whether it's cause he's British

I am loathe to link all his interviews where he says that, (from early Feb before he was in St Michaels , but if you want them, I can) because it always feels as if it's all about him. Even now

He also said the phone on bench could be a decoy and that Nicola could for example run off with a lover.

 

[Tree hugger]

Have you ever bent down to do something e.g. sort out your dog, and stepped on the inside of your own clothing? I wonder if Nicola may have tripped herself up by standing on the hem of her long gilet, which would have caused a fall into the river

 

[once upon a time]

Wow I looked at the stations along the Wyre and they were all raised... Does that mean the incoming tide came up the Wyre, or are the raised levels from lakes at the source?

I believe that during spring high tides a bore is generated up the river once it breaches the Weir.
A Google search of the term "river Wyre tidal bore" may be interesting IMO.

A quick check of the tide tables online does show that there are currently spring tides.

 

[vchk]

He also said the phone on bench could be a decoy and that Nicola could for example run off with a lover.

yes exactly - does he think police are not clever enough to consider that theory?
and the family would know NB would never run away like that .
these kind of comments will hurt the family too

 

[award38]

I think some people are making the assumption that where Nicola was found is where she's been for the last 3 weeks and that police have somehow missed her. I don't think that's the case. People may not appreciate how powerful a tidal river can be. It's entirely understandable...we all think of rivers only moving in one direction, from source to sea, but that's not the case in a tidal river such as this stretch of the Wyre..

This video shows a tidal bore on the Wyre from 2015 and the last section of the video is filmed at Cartford Bridge which is a mile or so downstream from where Nicola was discovered.

The river is tidal from the sea to the weir, just downstream from where Nicola went missing. When you watch it, remember that what you're seeing is the tide coming in and pushing water up the river.

The water is running from the sea towards the weir, in effect turning the direction of flow of the river (bit more complicated than that, but essentially the case).

Look at the power that's visible at the surface and imagine the turbulence below.

Also bear in mind that what you're seeing is just the start of the tide coming into the river. There's a lot more water that follows in the hours after as the high tide peaks. We also know that Nicola was discovered just after a particularly high tide. Remember that there are 2 high tides per day.

It's very sad to say, but Nicola may have been being pushed up and down the river. Or she may have been snagged somewhere further downstream and the high tide has released her and pushed her back up the river to where she was found after the tide receded.

 

[Davieson]

Of course. Like I said: this is not what I think happened. But it is possible. You have to look at every possible scenario as a detective, no?

Only if the evidence leads in that direction.

 

[abovethestorm]

<modsnip> ask whether anyone here has any idea of how accurate the forensics are in terms of being able to pinpoint precisely how long a body has been in water? 3 weeks is a long time - will they be able to say definitively whether the body has been underwater for the whole 3 weeks? Even a day or two less could have significance...

 

[supersleuth123]

This is going to be one those cases where it is never known what happened. And even if it is known, it will be disputed and debated.

 

[abovethestorm]

Perhaps NB’s phone had search history that showed self harm or ending her life was something she had been researching, or perhaps a draft text message explaining her intentions that didn’t get sent or was meant to be found after she disappeared. It does seem like the Police are pretty adamant there was no third party involved, especially with no cordons put up to take forensics where she was found.
Just my thoughts and opinions.

I also wondered whether sniffer dogs had failed to find any trace of Nicola's scent leading away from the bench area. If so, perhaps this informed their thinking/hypothesis?

 

[DazN]

This is going to be one those cases where it is never known what happened. And even if it is known, it will be disputed and debated.

Hopefully the post-mortem will provide some clarity. Also more details will be probably be released once the body has been formally identified. JMO

 

[tree1]

I understand that people planning suicide often appear totally normal, even very happy as they have found a solution. I don’t then know why I cannot relate this to NB. I just cannot imagine that a functioning loving Mum who adored her family and dog was planning this. Despite, as I said, evidence this happens. I can’t imagine she dropped her children off knowing she would never see them again, I just can’t.

 

[JennieM]

I doubt it’d even have made the national news to be honest. People die in rivers all the time without it being heralded by the tabloids.

It’s interesting that this one grew legs and galloped across the front pages, and I think you’re right that next time the police will think very carefully about the sort of attention a case needs.

MOO it has galloped because many women can see themselves in Nicola. Overwhelmed busy mums trying to do their best, sometimes with not enough support. Add to that the mystery element, how could she just vanish when there were no underlying reasons (as per her family's and partner's and friends' comments)? How did she exit the area?

The truth is there were underlying reasons and in context it all makes more sense.

Best-case scenario right now is that this was an unfortunate accidental slip as any other scenario will cause even more heartbreak to her loved ones.

I just WISH she was found before disclosures had been made about her.

I wish her family strength and peace and the best possible happy future to her two girls. Nicola seemed like the best mum and a really lovely person

 

[abovethestorm]

People who think her body was placed there are desperately, almost embarassingly, clutching at straws.

For that to happen, someone had to take her without being spotted or leaving any evidence at the scene. They then had to murder her at another location (again without being noticed) and then take the body back to the river over 3 weeks after she went missing (again without being spotted or leaving any trace, all in area with an extremely high police & media presence).

Let it go folks.

Presumably, forensics will now be working to ascertain whether this seemingly unlikely sequence of events has any likelihood of being the case. If they are able to definitively eliminate that possibility, then we will all be able to let it go.

 

[martinwatts5]

It’s the fact he was adamant she wasn’t there, convinced the family she wasn’t there, raised eyebrows about foul play, and fed the red tops headline fodder.

I don’t think anyone is criticising him for what he’s done, more what he’s said.

“100% she’s not there”. She was there.

In my opinion when he said 100% not there he meant not in the water he searched. He did not rule out the reeds/banks and he didn’t believe the body could have travelled further if it was just a fall. I did feel he was wrong to mention foul play and the phone as a decoy, it wasn’t his place and not sure why he mentioned this train of thought when he knew there were other places the body could be found. I think he just made too many comments and confused the family into thinking Nicola wasn’t in the water.

 

[Cherwell]

Someone in the thread earlier mentioned the people that found the body could have been searchers.

Does it matter? They are probably just people out for a walk with their dog. Everyone would be naturally keeping an eye out for any sign of NB. If my dog found a dead body I would move him well away from the scene, preferably out of sight.

 

[Rusty Braincells]

Jumping off this post ask whether anyone here has any idea of how accurate the forensics are in terms of being able to pinpoint precisely how long a body has been in water? 3 weeks is a long time - will they be able to say definitively whether the body has been underwater for the whole 3 weeks? Even a day or two less could have significance...

Not an expert, only a sleuther, and I see what you mean, I doubt they can tell *exactly* the date and time of death after more than three weeks in the water (as seems to be the case). However, given Nicola went missing on a certain morning, was not heard from or seen since, and there was no evidence she came to harm at the hands of anyone else, nor any evidence of anyone dumping a body in the river days later, it will not be a wild conclusion to assume she fell or jumped (I think they will go with “fell” unless other evidence) in the water the day she went missing.

Of course someone could stage all of this and put Nicola in the water days later, knowing she went missing by the river. But then I would expect evidence that she didn’t drown but was killed another way. Or evidence she didn’t drown in river water but in different water. I wonder if they can tell that weeks later but think they can probably discern a lot these days from medical examination. If the post-mortem shows anything other than died about three weeks ago and likely cause of death drowning in river (not tap, etc) water, it will be astonishing.

 

[tedtink]

People who think her body was placed there are desperately, almost embarassingly, clutching at straws.

For that to happen, someone had to take her without being spotted or leaving any evidence at the scene. They then had to murder her at another location (again without being noticed) and then take the body back to the river over 3 weeks after she went missing (again without being spotted or leaving any trace, all in area with an extremely high police & media presence).

Let it go folks.

They can't let it go. It would mean abandoning the drama that is fueling them and while they still have 'followers' endorsing it, it won't end soon.

JMO

 

[Liverpool86]

Only if the evidence leads in that direction.

There are many cases ruled as suicide that have later been discovered to be murder, accident etc. all with little evidence pointing to the latter. It is just not common to completely dismiss the possibility.

The only reason I point this out is that I believe this is the reason the public are lynching the police. We know full well that they are exploring every possible scenario - but to the regular Joe Bloggs, SM ghouls etc, it probably appears that they aren’t even considering any other possibility.

 

[flysleuthD]

I think some people are making the assumption that where Nicola was found is where she's been for the last 3 weeks and that police have somehow missed her. I don't think that's the case. People may not appreciate how powerful a tidal river can be. It's entirely understandable...we all think of rivers only moving in one direction, from source to sea, but that's not the case in a tidal river such as this stretch of the Wyre..

This video shows a tidal bore on the Wyre from 2015 and the last section of the video is filmed at Cartford Bridge which is a mile or so downstream from where Nicola was discovered.

The river is tidal from the sea to the weir, just downstream from where Nicola went missing. When you watch it, remember that what you're seeing is the tide coming in and pushing water up the river.

The water is running from the sea towards the weir, in effect turning the direction of flow of the river (bit more complicated than that, but essentially the case).

Look at the power that's visible at the surface and imagine the turbulence below.

Also bear in mind that what you're seeing is just the start of the tide coming into the river. There's a lot more water that follows in the hours after as the high tide peaks. We also know that Nicola was discovered just after a particularly high tide. Remember that there are 2 high tides per day.

It's very sad to say, but Nicola may have been being pushed up and down the river. Or she may have been snagged somewhere further downstream and the high tide has released her and pushed her back up the river to where she was found after the tide receded.

Well said...someone further up the thread likened it to a brook, its far from a babbling brook, great clip thankyou