Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000

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I agree!
My thoughts at the moment are:
1. The killer probably left the country, possibly for the USA.
2. The sand is an important clue.
3. Such family murders (when not committed by a relative) are often committed by paranoid schizophrenics, yet this killer seems far more fashion conscious than any schizophrenic killer I've read about.
4. The killer enjoyed these murders and the aftermath. Yet hasn't struck since which makes me suspect he died or was institutionalised soon after leaving the country.
I agree with 1, 2, and 4, but sort of disagree with 3.

schizophrenics are more likely to harm their own relatives than anyone else. it is exceedingly rare for them to harm a stranger.

Pooling data from seven studies in four countries, researchers found that the odds of a person with schizophrenia killing a stranger were 1 in 14 million people per year.

The risk appears even lower if the disorder is being treated with antipsychotic medication, the investigators report in the Schizophrenia Bulletin.

Most of the victims [of schizophrenics], though, are family members, Nielssen told Reuters Health in an email, and in nearly half of these cases, the person's schizophrenia had never been treated.

The current findings are based on seven studies from Europe and Australia looking at homicides by people with schizophrenia. The estimated annual rate of "stranger homicides" ranged anywhere from 1 in 7 million to 1 in 18 million people per year.
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I do not think this perpetrator is schizophrenic, I think they likely have antisocial PD and are cocky beyond measure IMO!!
 
When entering Yokota in a vehicle back then, would it have required a driver to show an ID at a gate or guard post? If his hands were as injured as TMPD seems to think, wouldn’t this be problematic?
This is a great question, and I have another one a little off to the side that piggybacks on it.

@FacelessPodcast I know your POI's parent(s?) were stationed at Yokota, but do you know for sure they actually lived on base at the time? If the POI was a teenager, his parent(s) would probably be somewhere around 40 years old and, most likely, relatively high-ranking officers who could easily afford to live off base.

As far as I know, American military can live wherever they want as long as they can make it to work on time - I feel like it would be pretty unusual for service members that old and presumably high-ranking to actually live on base.

If they didn't, this could answer fridaybaker's above question, and possibly mean they lived much closer to the murder scene and increase the possibility of prior (at least in passing) contact between the perp and the family.
 
The killer seems to be a person of contradictions.

Quite well-dressed with new clothes and reasonably expensive aftershave. Bought a far fancier and more expensive knife than was necessary to commit such a murder. Neatly folded their bloodied clothes and handkerchief. Would need to be fit and agile to enter through the presumed entry point in the bathroom.

But also frenzied. Unconcerned with leaving blood, excrement, and all manner of other mess strewn around. Seemingly comfortable staying in a house of horrors for hours with four dead bodies, drinking their tea and eating their ice-cream.

The way the killer searched through the family's belongings does suggest he was looking for something. If he took a particular document would anyone even know it was missing? But then he dumped everything else in the bath and toilet, which might just mean he was showing disdain for the family, not that he was looking for anything in particular.

To me the behavior suggests either mental illness or drugs. Or alternatively, such a visceral, personal hatred for the family that he was willing to completely desecrate their property and then bask in what he'd done.
 
US bases can be 'open' or 'closed'. As the name implies, 'open' bases allow public entry, but can have restricted areas that are closed off.

Most US bases are 'closed'. As you implied, anybody seeking entry to a 'closed' base must show ID at the gate. The ID functions as an entry permit. ID / entry permit are restrictive and obtaining them is difficult.

In my experience, the gate guards (usually military, but some times hi end private security) are very observant. Things out of the ordinary such as injuries would be noticed and questioned- and the questions would probably be mini investigative and not: "Wow! Crazy stuff happens- welcome back."

This likely level of scrutiny is due to the fact that base commanders are under alot of pressure to keep good relations with local communities- this is especially true of over seas bases and doubly so if a good number of locals are tired of the bases.

Thus, indications of a dependent, serviceman, or civilian contractor returning to base after being in a brawl with locals (or even other servicemen), being involved in an off base accident, or getting hurt in wild "animal house" antics are likely to be questioned. Base commanders really want to know of these incidents before they are made public.

This does not mean that every "got in a fight" or "hurt my hand helping to change a tire" type claim is then subjected to a full investigation. But... base commanders know that seemingly small incidents can turn into big incidents. I can see a parent of a dependent or a NCO from a serviceman's unit being called if the guards noticed injuries and did not like the answers.

OK, here is my impression of US bases. People think they are observant. IRL, "it wasn't dripping over the Americans", as I would say in Russian, meaning people haven't experienced anything here for a long time, so what you think is "alertness" here would be welcoming friendliness in Europe. Things might have changed after 9-11 though. But still, more attitude, less mentality. Especially in the military - definitely I see more logic and less paranoia here.

I can't imagine a kid coming to the base all in blood and with female hygiene products wrapped around the wounds, though, and none the wiser.

So...it is not a reasonable scenario. Could he have asked the father to pick him up and drive in? Yes. Could the scenario be very different and the person live off-base? For sure. Could he be not from the base? Absolutely.

Having thought of it, I came to the conclusion that he didn't look Eurasian, more Asian that we assume. Just my feeling. He would have triggered a lot of alarms looking non-Asian and walking around with severe wounds on his hands.

Can it be simply another situation we haven't considered? Ships? Tourist ships? All Japan is a major port. There are tons of ways to disappear without being fingerprinted.
 
If the perp was the teen child of a US military member, would someone with higher rank have vehicle stickers to indicate rank (during overseas postings)? If so, possibly the (lower ranking) person working the gate may have waved the vehicle through without checking id? Just an idea....
 
NO: I see that on that "R" site, you recently were asking about the identification of a logo on a 2000-ish calendar. Has anything come of that? Also, I wasn't quite sure what you were asking about. Not the Kanji characters, but the small, two-part sort of colored imaged below it, right?

I'm wondering if there's a service that offers that kind of identification, or a way to increase the clarity of the image. Have you looked into such? Just looking on the internet right now, I see quite a few ads for software that increase clarity, but I would imagine something that takes the image you have and makes it clear would take quite a bit of sophistication.
 
@FacelessPodcast

I've just finished listening to your podcast and want to congratulate you on a job well done!

As you were discussing the skaters in the episode "Four Wheels," I couldn't shake the feeling that the killer might have been *disguised* as a skater. And sure enough, you suggested the idea yourself on the podcast.

Looking at the pictures of the killer's outfit I've always thought it looked slightly "off," and now I realise it looks too perfect. Like someone's idea of what a skater might wear, not necessarily what they actually would. What better way to go unnoticed than to blend in with what people are expecting to see. But that would definitely suggest this was more of a planned hit.

I was also interested to learn there's no definitive proof of where the killer entered or left the house. I would have expected the shoes to be bloody, and whether leaving by the front door or the bathroom, he would have had to walk through blood to get there. The fact that there is seemingly no blood around any of the potential exit points is puzzling.

On one hand, this killer seems to be inexperienced and to have made many mistakes. On the other, they've somehow done *everything* right to get away with it.
 
There are many things about these murders that we don't understand yet I wonder what could be red herrings here.

1) I think maternal origin is a red herring. From my own observation, you can't say anything from mito DNA. Happy to give examples, but Google "Eva Braun's Mito DNA" (spoiler alert: she was vetted thoroughly, so maybe great-great-great-great-grandma. Autosomal DNA would not show it by that time).

2) Second, just because dad's Y haplogroup is more frequent in Koreans, doesn't mean he is Korean. The group is very prevalent in Asia. Period. For all I know, he can be Mongolian or Burmese. Or rather, before big Y is done, we can't assume Japanese/Korean until more in-depth DNA studies are done. The person could be Burmese, Vietnamese, Hong, Cambodian, Chinese, Korean, Mongol, Japanese and lots of others. We simply can't say anything before more studies are done.

3) that sand. I really don't know what to say - yet. Let me think.
 
Or alternatively, such a visceral, personal hatred for the family that he was willing to completely desecrate their property and then bask in what he'd done.
I really think this is a good assessment.

If its accurate, it could indicate a deeper level of personal contact than a complaint about a late night noise at the skate board park.

Earlier, a member raised the possibility of a student failing the crucial final exams- then blaming the tutor. A foreign student would not only have the standard shame from failing, but would be able to disappear from Japan and have less record of being in Japan. But.... are foreign students also finger printed by Japanese immigration authorities?
OK, here is my impression of US bases. People think they are observant. IRL, "it wasn't dripping over the Americans", as I would say in Russian, meaning people haven't experienced anything here for a long time, so what you think is "alertness" here would be welcoming friendliness in Europe.
Though I can understand that there are different definitions of 'alertness', US base guards are usually alert by any definition to anything unusual.

It would be nice to think that this level of alertness is motivated solely by the 9-11 terror attacks. But... the alertness is probably more closely linked to the Base Commander's career advancement.

Base Commanders hate surprises and hate bad news regarding the activities of US servicemen and dependents. People returning bloody can indicate bad news. Too much bad news from the base can lead to the Base Commander being fired.

So, they very carefully instruct base guards to be alert for anything that could indicate bad news. This is especially so with over seas bases where the US presence is not popular with locals.

Bloody people returning to US bases would likely be noticed and questioned. A dependent with his father maybe be questioned less, but he would still be noticed. If his answers were obviously deceptive, a follow on investigation could be done.
 
Having thought of it, I came to the conclusion that he didn't look Eurasian, more Asian that we assume. Just my feeling. He would have triggered a lot of alarms looking non-Asian and walking around with severe wounds on his hands.
I agree. Though there is the possibility that the DNA tests suggesting a European ancestor were misinterpreted by Japanese researchers, I agree with you that any mixture of ethnicity would be Asian "heavy".

The knife salesman evidently did not notice any strong indicators that the perpetrator was mixed ethnicity, nor an obvious foreign accent, speaking in broken Japanese etc.

As a side note, previous generation(s) mixed marriages and out of wedlock births from the US military presence and the former British, French, Dutch colonial presence can easily lead to people who today are citizens of Asian countries and are 75% or 88% Asian and only 25% to 12% European (or less)- thus European features would not be very noticeable.
 
This has always been a mystery to me. I always assumed that the soundproofing between the two houses created a total void. And it was this that explained no reports of screaming etc. I can't really get into a huge amount of detail until the podcast is totally released BUT I will say this.

If the relatives next door report a banging sound (the TMPD later worked it was the fold-up ladder to the attic being thrown back into place) how did they not hear any screaming? Are we to believe that he stabbed to death three people and not one of them made a peep? It's possible, I guess -- maybe they were in shock? Still, the killer cut himself quite badly for starters. AND there was a delay between his initial attack on Yasuko and Niina upstairs and then the second attack with a new knife. Not to mention that Mikio ended up at the bottom of the stairs, presumably being pushed or falling down them after being stabbed. During all of this -- nobody made a single sound?

From what I've said, you can probably work out that the soundproofing between the two houses wasn't as impermeable as you might assume... Draw your own conclusions!

I'm sorry for dredging up an old post, but I have some knowledge of soundproofing from when I had my own home soundproofed, and the info may be useful.

There are two kinds of noise: airborne and structural.

Screams would be airborne, as would the sound of a TV, a musical instrument, etc. Any sound that travels through the air.

A loft ladder slamming back into place does cause airborne noise, but also structural noise because it's physically connected to the building. Doors slamming, footsteps, they all cause structural noise because it's a direct impact with the building.

Different soundproofing materials are required to block the two types of sound. Depending on the type of soundproofing that was being used in the property, it's possible the airborne noise was blocked but the structural noise wasn't. As a result screams weren't heard but banging was.
 
In regards to the ease of an injured individual slipping back on to a US base with out being noticed or questioned by the gate guards....

I just spoke to a neighbor of mine who served in the US military and asked him about the possibility. He said that:

- Senior NCO(s) are on duty at every gate 24/7/365.
- Many of the high end private security at the gates have military or civilian law enforcement experience.
- Whether military or civilian contractors, guards are constantly on the look out for indicators of "bad news".

- Upon noticing injuries, referral to the senior NCO on duty would be near automatic regardless of whether the guard at the gate believed the tale being told.
- The incident would be logged.
- A general follow on investigation to confirm (at least in general terms) the story told by the injured serviceman or dependent would be very likely.

None of the above is surprises me at all. At the end of the day, base commanders hate learning about bad news incidents from the local papers- or worse yet, hostile foreign politicians.

The US military has a lot of resources and by extension, alot of Military Police NCOs looking for opportunities to "run things down". So, visiting the base hospital to see if the injuries matched the claimed story would likely be standard.
 
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Reading further on the thread I see that the soundproofing on the house was very poor, and @FacelessPodcast's investigators found it was largely useless. In that case the information in my previous post is relevant to the overall topic of soundproofing, but probably doesn't really apply to the Miyazawa home.

Saving face is very important in Japan; if neighbours did in fact hear something, they could either deny it, or they would have to admit they heard something and did nothing--which would be very shameful, if not outright suspicious.
 
Reading further on the thread I see that the soundproofing on the house was very poor, and @FacelessPodcast's investigators found it was largely useless. In that case the information in my previous post is relevant to the overall topic of soundproofing, but probably doesn't really apply to the Miyazawa home.

Saving face is very important in Japan; if neighbours did in fact hear something, they could either deny it, or they would have to admit they heard something and did nothing--which would be very shameful, if not outright suspicious.
This brings up another quirk...

The Miyazawas lived in a shared building that was split in two. So no internal connection but a shared domicile, if that makes sense (there are walk-throughs online if you're curious on the layouts). See attached. IIRC it was the mother Yasuko's family who were the neighbors, her mother, sister, and BIL. You'd think if they heard anything, they'd be interested to see what was going on...
 

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This brings up another quirk...

The Miyazawas lived in a shared building that was split in two. So no internal connection but a shared domicile, if that makes sense (there are walk-throughs online if you're curious on the layouts). See attached. IIRC it was the mother Yasuko's family who were the neighbors, her mother, sister, and BIL. You'd think if they heard anything, they'd be interested to see what was going on...

I was aware the neighbours were Yasuko's family, but thank you for telling me nonetheless. :)

I referred to them as "neighbours" rather than as family because I wasn't sure about identifying them. If they heard something and did nothing I can really only think of two reasons why: they either didn't care what was happening, or they were used to hearing commotion from next door and didn't find it unusual.
 
Eagle-eyed Sleuths: all those who are seeing a scar here, please raise your hand.

Could just be me but I've got a scar from a slicing wound in my youth and it looks smooth and pale in a similar fashion...

View attachment 439523
View attachment 439524
View attachment 439525

I think it absolutely could be a scar, especially with it showing up in other pictures of the same man.

But I notice it's the left hand, which doesn't seem to match what was thought about the killer cutting his right?
 
I agree. Though there is the possibility that the DNA tests suggesting a European ancestor were misinterpreted by Japanese researchers, I agree with you that any mixture of ethnicity would be Asian "heavy".

The knife salesman evidently did not notice any strong indicators that the perpetrator was mixed ethnicity, nor an obvious foreign accent, speaking in broken Japanese etc.

As a side note, previous generation(s) mixed marriages and out of wedlock births from the US military presence and the former British, French, Dutch colonial presence can easily lead to people who today are citizens of Asian countries and are 75% or 88% Asian and only 25% to 12% European (or less)- thus European features would not be very noticeable.

All MOO: Probably, "the colonial way" would explain some Western European Y-cariotypes among the Asian men. The colonial way is always about the land, so foreign men move in, kill the local males, settle in and impregnate the local women. (Men don't bring mitochondrial DNA, mitochondria comes from maternal egg. Men bring Ys.) Some prevalence of European mitochondrial DNA among Asians, as I suspect, might be related in time to the slave markets, especially in Constantinople, where female abductees from Europe would be sold, probably, all over the world. So could European mitochondrial DNA end up among Asians? Surely, in most places, with a very few exceptions, tribal belonging was defined by the father. And, there potentially could always exist an influx of foreign women to all countries, whether more or less, depended on the history and the coastal line, I think.

Mitochondrial DNA is foreign for human eukaryotic cells. Our mitochondria, the cell powerhouses, are the descendants of the first aerobic bacteria residing within first prokaryotic cells. (They came and stayed, and with them, the cells got aerobic glycolysis, a humongous evolutionary step. Endosymbiosis.) However - mitochondria, the foreign bacteria, have own DNA, totally different from the cell's nuclear DNA, and while it mutates, the mutations accrue over thousands of years. Mitichondrial DNA comes from direct maternal line, but when that "initial" European mother appeared in the Asian population, is impossible to tell. Or maybe some Asian merchant impregnated a foreign woman during his travels, could happen, too.

I can think for ages how and where my Russian ancestor's maternal line acquired their uber-rare mito DNA. It is more frequent in Iran, but maybe Iranians got it from another group, too. So imagine that in 2001, something happened in Helsinki, and Finnish police got my relative's DNA. With genetic knowledge of 2001, they would see: Y is of N1C1 haplotype. "Karelian, that's us". And then, this super rare "Iranian" mito DNA. What would they assume? Oh, the guy's dad was probably a Finn, and his mother, from Iran (and with more recent immigration, they'd say, could be Afghani or even some Pakistani tribe). That the guy was born in Central Russia and likely, inherited his Y from some small Northern Siberian ethnicity and his mito - who knows, nomades living in Azov steppes would be my guess, would totally escape them.

Now, hopefully, the Japanese police knows a little bit more and probably performed rudimentary autosomal analysis of the perp's DNA. But if not, they may be looking at the results of very old genetic expertise and their hands might be tied. (But it doesn't mean the perp is necessarily Korean. We don't have his big Y results).

So: modern DNA analysis should be done. Also, we might be totally missing some middle situation. Not only there were, and are, many Koreans living in Japan, in difficult circumstances, what about someone from the base impregnating a local woman in, say, 1984? She could be Japanese, or not at all, Tokio is a megapolis. Or what about some American couple adopting a Chinese/Korean/any Asian boy? The parents may be great people and explain their kid's behavior by adoption issues.
 
I think it absolutely could be a scar, especially with it showing up in other pictures of the same man.

But I notice it's the left hand, which doesn't seem to match what was thought about the killer cutting his right?
Meant to copy the pictures here but no luck. Anyway, the pics are very blurry so I suppose it’s really just guessing, but I see several areas that could be scars.
 
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