AMBER ALERT TN - Autistic teen Sebastian Wayne Drake Rogers, 15, missing in Hendersonville - Feb 27, 2024 #3

[carbuff]

I have a different take on this. And it's not based as much on this case as on all the similar cases I've followed.

IMO there are two crimes. One, the initial event that LE is investigating and two, what families go through when they realize that they don't own their person, their story, their privacy, control, none if it. It's harsh. And time and time again, I see families eventually lash out, feeling LE is doing nothing or doing something in secret.

LE has one job, ok two. Primary jobs. Determine if there's foul play, and solve it to the degree that a State can prosecute it to conviction.

Satisfying parents, satisfying the public -- not their primary job.

They ARE withholding information from Seth, and it's probably completely discombobulating him. Naturally he wants Sebastion found NOW and if anyone is responsible, to be charged NOW.

But it only happens like that in movies. LE can't rush to judgment, they can't reveal intimate details of the investigation, not of any crime scene or POIs.... brutal if you're the family, desperate for information.

LE's actions are consistent with a criminal investigation. No random searches. Targeted searches of which were produced not privy. They aren't appealing to the masses because IMO they don't need it.

JMO

Very well put. Thank you.

Poor Sebastian. Whatever happened, he deserves/deserved better.

 

[abyquinn]

I have a different take on this. And it's not based as much on this case as on all the similar cases I've followed.

IMO there are two crimes. One, the initial event that LE is investigating and two, what families go through when they realize that they don't own their person, their story, their privacy, control, none if it. It's harsh. And time and time again, I see families eventually lash out, feeling LE is doing nothing or doing something in secret.

LE has one job, ok two. Primary jobs. Determine if there's foul play, and solve it to the degree that a State can prosecute it to conviction.

Satisfying parents, satisfying the public -- not their primary job.

They ARE withholding information from Seth, and it's probably completely discombobulating him. Naturally he wants Sebastion found NOW and if anyone is responsible, to be charged NOW.

But it only happens like that in movies. LE can't rush to judgment, they can't reveal intimate details of the investigation, not of any crime scene or POIs.... brutal if you're the family, desperate for information.

LE's actions are consistent with a criminal investigation. No random searches. Targeted searches of which were produced not privy. They aren't appealing to the masses because IMO they don't need it.

JMO

I thought LE primary job was to find the missing person, preferably as a search & rescue. If it is too late for that then a search & recovery. A child Sebastian’s age running off doesn’t always mean a crime has been committed. Sometimes kids being kids they get overwhelmed by whatever and decide to run. Or sometimes they are just out doing things they shouldn’t and they wind up endangering themselves.

The secondary job is to collect evidence along the way for the judiciary dept to prove there was a crime and who committed it.

In this instance they have been telling us all along there is no evidence of a crime and there’s no evidence there isn’t a crime. So far they haven’t found Sebastian and they haven’t found any evidence! What exactly have they been doing for almost 3 months? I can see why Seth is frustrated. Everyone following is frustrated.

 

[Megnut]

I thought LE primary job was to find the missing person, preferably as a search & rescue. If it is too late for that then a search & recovery. A child Sebastian’s age running off doesn’t always mean a crime has been committed. Sometimes kids being kids they get overwhelmed by whatever and decide to run. Or sometimes they are just out doing things they shouldn’t and they wind up endangering themselves.

The secondary job is to collect evidence along the way for the judiciary dept to prove there was a crime and who committed it.

In this instance they have been telling us all along there is no evidence of a crime and there’s no evidence there isn’t a crime. So far they haven’t found Sebastian and they haven’t found any evidence! What exactly have they been doing for almost 3 months? I can see why Seth is frustrated. Everyone following is frustrated.

This is my point.

If LE believed Sebastian walked away (like they did in the early days), we'd be seeing massive search grids.

LE is quiet.

That teĺls me is a hot investigation, regardless of what they put out to the public. IMO they have surveillance in place. They are analyzing cellular and vehicle data, they are reviewing CCTV, they are building a case.

Likely we aren't going to hear a thing until -- BAM -- there's an arrest. And then we'll see the AW and find out what all LE was doing during this time. I've seen it over and over and over.

Hard to be patient...

Wait. Watch.

JMO

 

[Simply Southern]

From the podcast -
Seth ‘heard there was dashcam footage from somebody’s car’ whose car? ‘Not mine… don’t have a dashcam’ but ‘but Police don’t put it out, I don’t see it’. Pascal said there is a slew of other footage including ring doorbell camera capturing Sebastian putting out the trash that evening.

Seth, ‘heard" there was dashcam footage from somebody’s car’ whose car?

Why doesn't he say WHERE he "heard" this? On social media, from Tictoc, one of his "new" crew?

I have no faith or believe in anything Seth or Tony spew. I can't imagine the calls the FBI and SCSD are having to respond to created by these two.

LE continues to issue statements ...social media rumors are false, through Nick at News 5.

I notice the national and local stations are steering clear of the situation, sad. News Nation is covering, but they have low viewership.

Moo...

 

[Megnut]

Sometimes, when LE is candid with family, family shares that information with the media and it jeopardizes the information. It is always best IMO when POIs don't know what LE knows and sometimes that means that nonPOI family doesn't get to know either.

It is best for LE if POIs make mistakes, double back, relax....

It is hard for me to be patient, I can't begin to imagine what it would be like to be family, boxed out. Painfully slow process. Arrests, if warranted, can be months, years out. Trials, many years out. Justice rolls slowly.

This is still very early.

I suspect LE's statements, few though they are, are IMO crafted toward person(s) of interest. We know nothing, no suspects, no crime, no flashlights in the night....

I suspect they know what they're doing.

JMO

 

[abyquinn]

This is my point.

If LE believed Sebastian walked away (like they did in the early days), we'd be seeing massive search grids.

LE is quiet.

That teĺls me is a hot investigation, regardless of what they put out to the public. IMO they have surveillance in place. They are analyzing cellular and vehicle data, they are reviewing CCTV, they are building a case.

Likely we aren't going to hear a thing until -- BAM -- there's an arrest. And then we'll see the AW and find out what all LE was doing during this time. I've seen it over and over and over.

Hard to be patient...

Wait. Watch.

JMO

I sure hope you’re right bc right now, IMO this is looking more and more like a cold case. LE searched for 4 days before packing up, 1.5 days at the land fill then nothing until their re-search a month or so ago. They have continued to say it is a missing person investigation. The parents have pretty much cooperated. I will very happily admit to being wrong if they arrest anyone.

You should read post 141 in the thread for Danka Ilić -Bor, Serbia a 1yr old who disappeared.
It details what was done by LE & how quickly they worked. There was even a siting of a little girl ppl thought might have been Danka, earlier in the thread. LE covered so much ground, very quickly even though they thought the mother had harmed her & hid her body somewhere.
Caution posts before & after have details about what happened to her after she wondered off.

 

[concernedmother]

We know everything they took from Seth's was not returned. He wants everything back in his room for when he comes home. Some was but not Sabastian's computer and switch. I found that interesting. Maybe a clue there. jmo

 

[Helechawagirl]

So guys, I sent the name of the YouTuber to those of you who wanted it. If I have time later, I’ll rewatch to see where the actual theory is at. You may want to fast forward through the buildup. Near or at the end she has a few slides on Motive, Means, and a guide as to how it could have been done. I’ve watch way too many videos/podcasts on this case. This one at least has a theory and how it might have happened and where his body might be. I haven’t seen anything new today—just a bunch of previously debunked stories and commenters commenting on commenters.

 

[Helechawagirl]

So guys, I sent the name of the YouTuber to those of you who wanted it. If I have time later, I’ll rewatch to see where the actual theory is at. You may want to fast forward through the buildup. Near or at the end she has a few slides on Motive, Means, and a guide as to how it could have been done. I’ve watch way too many videos/podcasts on this case. This one at least has a theory and how it might have happened and where his body might be. I haven’t seen anything new today—just a bunch of previously debunked stories and commenters commenting on commenters.

Starts at about 11:11–not near the end; I accidentally was watching another video. There must be over 100 different creators producing content. Little of it is useful. Our own Websleuths podcast was interesting and seems to have started the players calling in to as many shows as possible. Annoying, but the more they talk, the more they reveal.

 

[azure]

If LE believed Sebastian walked away (like they did in the early days), we'd be seeing massive search grids.

I'm not so sure about this. Maybe if he were 3 years old or if there were evidence of foul play. But high functioning autistic teenage runaways don't really get giant search grids IMO.

 

[Simply Southern]

I sure hope you’re right bc right now, IMO this is looking more and more like a cold case. LE searched for 4 days before packing up, 1.5 days at the land fill then nothing until their re-search a month or so ago. They have continued to say it is a missing person investigation. The parents have pretty much cooperated. I will very happily admit to being wrong if they arrest anyone.

You should read post 141 in the thread for Danka Ilić -Bor, Serbia a 1yr old who disappeared.
It details what was done by LE & how quickly they worked. There was even a siting of a little girl ppl thought might have been Danka, earlier in the thread. LE covered so much ground, very quickly even though they thought the mother had harmed her & hid her body somewhere.
Caution posts before & after have details about what happened to her after she wondered off.

SCSD didn't call off the search until April 4th per their FB page. Many surrounding agencies assisted in the ground search. I do believe they covered all public ground, private property is left up to the discretion of the property owner to allow LE search.

I do believe the land field was searched early, the video of the "two lights" was determined to be a trash truck.

The search dogs hit at the retention pond, it was drained. If Sebastian did walk through this pond, it may have deterred his scent.

As I have seen in recent cases, phone records, Google, GPS records tracking all come back quickly. I feel they have looked at any links to the case.

Moo ... Sebastian became lost on private property and was unable to find this way out. I also am heavily leaning, to an internet predator. Was the loud thud KP heard a window opening or shutting? Did someone come for SR?

I've mention before, we had a man from TX camp in the woods near a 13 year old female, gave her a burner phone, then he kidnapped her. Her parents were totally unaware, shocked. I also think of Jayme Closs, kidnapped by a stalker watching her from afar. He left NO DNA, killed her parents. LE had NOT ONE lead. She escaped months later. It happens kids get kidnapped, vanish without a trace.

Moo...

 

[abyquinn]

100+ motorcycles participate in ‘Ride for Sebastian’ held for Sebastian Rogers

“Sebastian Wayne Drake Rogers is out there somewhere, and my goal is to find him,” the teen’s father, Seth Rogers, said.

www.newsnationnow.com

This article has a link to a time line. There is another from the same time frame from Nick on channel 5. On March 4 there was an update from LE saying they are scaling back the boots on the ground search to transition to an investigation. They said at the time even though you won’t see us out searching we’re still working to find Sebastian.

SCSD didn't call off the search until April 4th per their FB page. Many surrounding agencies assisted in the ground search. I do believe they covered all public ground, private property is left up to the discretion of the property owner to allow LE search.

I do believe the land field was searched early, the video of the "two lights" was determined to be a trash truck.

The search dogs hit at the retention pond, it was drained. If Sebastian did walk through this pond, it may have deterred his scent.

As I have seen in recent cases, phone records, Google, GPS records tracking all come back quickly. I feel they have looked at any links to the case.

Moo ... Sebastian became lost on private property and was unable to find this way out. I also am heavily leaning, to an internet predator. Was the loud thud KP heard a window opening or shutting? Did someone come for SR?

I've mention before, we had a man from TX camp in the woods near a 13 year old female, gave her a burner phone, then he kidnapped her. Her parents were totally unaware, shocked. I also think of Jayme Closs, kidnapped by a stalker watching her from afar. He left NO DNA, killed her parents. LE had NOT ONE lead. She escaped months later. It happens kids get kidnapped, vanish without a trace.

Moo...

The landfill search was 1.5 days, around 3/6 or 3/7. They did have a lot of searches go on by volunteers thanks to the Riley search ending right at this time. They had Equasearch, Tn National Guard, TBI, FBI, they also left the EMA command post up in case calls came in they were prepared to search.

The retention pond did have foot prints near it but IIRC none leading out of it.

The front of their house has plants & mulch under the windows. That would have definitely left foot prints & some damage to the plants had someone gone in or out through a front window. There is also a fence around their backyard.

 

[Anastasia101]

I thought LE primary job was to find the missing person, preferably as a search & rescue. If it is too late for that then a search & recovery. A child Sebastian’s age running off doesn’t always mean a crime has been committed. Sometimes kids being kids they get overwhelmed by whatever and decide to run. Or sometimes they are just out doing things they shouldn’t and they wind up endangering themselves.

The secondary job is to collect evidence along the way for the judiciary dept to prove there was a crime and who committed it.

In this instance they have been telling us all along there is no evidence of a crime and there’s no evidence there isn’t a crime. So far they haven’t found Sebastian and they haven’t found any evidence! What exactly have they been doing for almost 3 months? I can see why Seth is frustrated. Everyone following is frustrated.

Agreed. If foul play is involved, I’m also leaning towards this becoming a cold case, because there has been zero indication of any development from anyone - not TBI, Sumner County, FBI, Secret Service, PIs, Cajun Navy, other volunteer searchers or any of the parents. I want to be wrong on this, that TBI have a mountain of evidence, are getting all there ducks in a row and AW are in the pipeline. Time will tell.

On the other hand, if Sebastian ran away he could be very close by and will be found quite by chance. Many missing people are overlooked after multiple searches and are recovered relatively near to home.

A case local to me, a father left home (caught on a neighbors cctv) and exhaustive searches took place. Yes he was suicidal but there was no trace of him anywhere. 12 months later he was discovered by a dog walker in a tree about a mile from his home, it was determined his body had been there all along.

 

[Helechawagirl]

What I find odd about folks left out in the open is that vultures/birds will circle a deceased person. I would think more people would be found this way but I’ve yet to read about it. I know if I see vultures circling, I will investigate. I believe he was moved in his mother’s car. Beyond that, it’s a mystery. I don’t think he was unalived at home; I think it was off-site. I’d like to be wrong and he’s safe somewhere but not very likely in my opinion. Weighted down in water or covered by concrete, it could remain unsolved or take a very long time. JMO

 

[concernedmother]

Idk who the culprit is but I do believe LE know a lot more and are building a criminal case. The DA didn't step in without a reason and not for a runaway. Then keeping SR PlayStation and switch which is probably in evidence. The lights could mean something and they aren't gonna tell anyone. They are very tight lipped for a reason. I believe we aren't going to hear anything until boom.
An arrest.

 

[Simply Southern]

Moo..SR was not moved in the mother's car. FBI, TBI, and SCSD would have immediately executed search warrants for all electronic, tracking and dash cam forensics. LE would have immediately focused the search efforts on any area the vehicle may have stopped. I'm sure LE has detailed timeline and tracking for the mother's vehicle. Are they sharing it with the public or the parents? NOPE it's part of an open investigation.

I base this, on how quickly electronic forensics were obtained and the extensive detail in the Butler/Kelly and M Soto cases. They had detailed information within the first few days, according to search warrants and court documents that have been released. Arrest were made quickly.

Moo...SR left the house, I think thru a window, even though the parents believe he would not step on to the shrubs. He may have had help, someone he met on the Internet, who encouraged him. He may have exited through a door by himself. Even 15 yo autistic adolescents, do things parents can't imagine, when they're determined.

All my opinion

 

[Alkali13]

Moo...SR left the house, I think thru a window, even though the parents believe he would not step on to the shrubs. He may have had help, someone he met on the Internet, who encouraged him. He may have exited through a door by himself. Even 15 yo autistic adolescents, do things parents can't imagine, when they're determined.

SBMFF.

For some reason this made me think of Gypsy Blanchard. Obviously not the same in most ways, BUT children are way more capable of things than their parents imagine, especially once the internet is involved. I was doing all sorts of stuff at that age, both online and IRL, that my parents were clueless about, and I am genuinely lucky in some ways to still be here today.

 

[Simply Southern]

This article has a link to a time line. There is another from the same time frame from Nick on channel 5. On March 4 there was an update from LE saying they are scaling back the boots on the ground search to transition to an investigation. They said at the time even though you won’t see us out searching we’re still working to find Sebastian.

The landfill search was 1.5 days, around 3/6 or 3/7. They did have a lot of searches go on by volunteers thanks to the Riley search ending right at this time. They had Equasearch, Tn National Guard, TBI, FBI, they also left the EMA command post up in case calls came in they were prepared to search.

The retention pond did have foot prints near it but IIRC none leading out of it.

The front of their house has plants & mulch under the windows. That would have definitely left foot prints & some damage to the plants had someone gone in or out through a front window. There is also a fence around their backyard.

Are there photos available of the front and side of the home? If so would you be able to post? Thanks
Eta... I only found one tick tock short video of the front of the home. It shows what appears to be mulch or decorative rock and very small shrubs planted at least three or four feet apart. The sides appear to have no shrubs or mulch or rock whatsoever, just grass or pavement.

 

[Alkali13]

Are there photos available of the front and side of the home? If so would you be able to post? Thanks
Eta... I only found one tick tock short video of the front of the home. It shows what appears to be mulch or decorative rock and very small shrubs planted at least three or four feet apart. The sides appear to have no shrubs or mulch or rock whatsoever, just grass or pavement.

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Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

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[Simply Southern]

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

Thanks, I didn't have the street address to look it up in maps.