AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #22

[Dee10]

Personally I find it pretty difficult to point blame at the family at the moment because they don't have a lawyer. Not saying that only guilty people get lawyers but if you arn't lying why would you need a lawyer.... Just my opinion but I just don't see it... I see a couple with a lost daughter avoiding being picked apart by the camera. They will find thier little princess, I'm sure of it and I highly doubt the parents had anything to do with it. It's my opinion and i'm entitled to it.

Sorry, who pointed blame at the family because the didn't have a lawyer? I think you might have read that wrong.

 

[Dr. Know?]

Lie detector test can be used in court in some states. Rarely done but it's not true they are not admissable & just wanted to set the record straight as I read that so often that they aren't.

Admissability of Polygraph Tests in Court

snipped

What are the State Laws Concerning Polygraph Admissibility?
Almost every state fits into one of two categories; those that find them completely inadmissible and those that allow their admission with "the stipulations of both parties" (meaning both you and the prosecutor agree to admit the test results as evidence).

States like California, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Florida allow the tests if everyone agrees to them, but may put different emphasis on the tests accuracy.

http://www.legalmatch.com/law-library/article/admissability-of-polygraph-tests-in-court.html

 

[SilkySifaka]

I don't trust the validity of polygraph testing. In fact, I would never take one and would discourage anyone from sitting in that chair. The "test" is only as good as the order of questioning, the motive and manipulation of the examiner and the interpretation which of course rarely goes well for the parent. Any parental suspect who passes one of these in a missing/murdered child case has nerves of steel or else the examiner has not worked his magic like he is directed. I am sure we all know of suspects who have passed them but before I get the hate posts illowfight: I must say this: Folks there is a reason and valid one that a PolyG is not admissable in court! Junk science.......

I think the reason they are so widely used is the fear factor. A suspects reaction to taking the test could say a lot...or not.
===
MOO

I agree with you. Psychopaths can pass it as easily as taking a walk while innocent people fail miserably. It is a tool and only a tool for LE but the tool isn't in the science of the LDT, it is in the reaction to it. Unfortunately most LE believe their colleagues who happen to run the test, because they know and trust each other. This can result on turning the focus into tunnel vision.

 

[johnQpublic]

Sorry, who pointed blame at the family because the didn't have a lawyer? I think you might have read that wrong.

I think you read it wrong... I wasnt disputing anyones statement.

 

[BaxterDE42]

Lie detector test can be used in court in some states. Rarely done but it's not true they are not admissable & just wanted to set the record straight as I read that so often that they aren't.

Admissability of Polygraph Tests in Court

snipped

What are the State Laws Concerning Polygraph Admissibility?
Almost every state fits into one of two categories; those that find them completely inadmissible and those that allow their admission with "the stipulations of both parties" (meaning both you and the prosecutor agree to admit the test results as evidence).

States like California, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Florida allow the tests if everyone agrees to them, but may put different emphasis on the tests accuracy.

http://www.legalmatch.com/law-library/article/admissability-of-polygraph-tests-in-court.html

Thanks for the caveat Dr. Know. The key word here is "stipulation". This would not be allowed for, let's say DNA. At least not to my knowledge as of this date. That word "stipulation" to me denotes: taking a big gamble.
:moo:

 

[johnQpublic]

In the law of the United States, a stipulation is an agreement made between opposing parties prior to a pending hearing or trial. For example, both parties might stipulate to certain facts, and therefore not have to argue those facts in court. After the stipulation is entered into, it is presented to the judge. In other legal systems a similar concept is called different names.- from Wiki

 

[GutFeeling!]

In the law of the United States, a stipulation is an agreement made between opposing parties prior to a pending hearing or trial. For example, both parties might stipulate to certain facts, and therefore not have to argue those facts in court. After the stipulation is entered into, it is presented to the judge. In other legal systems a similar concept is called different names.

God Bless Wiki ... always nice to give credit where credit is due, just to save confusion so people realize this is not your direct knowledge

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

So it is not just me missing how they are down at the center routinely helping, etc. If they are not doing media how would ya know? How would the public know volunteers to search are needed?

From the article I believe Nursebeeme posted earlier:

Volunteers helping with the search efforts for Isabel Celis say they've seen a decline in the number of people coming to the post and helping pass out flyers. The reason, they say, is because they're not as visible to the public anymore.
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/...celis-volunteers-since-moving-to-new-location

The comments underneath were interesting as well.

Re: Your bold. It's possible that the comment meant that, since the volunteer site was moved to another location (I think it's now inside a school building), that "they" - the volunteer location - in no longer visible to the public. :moo:

 

[BaxterDE42]

I agree with you. Psychopaths can pass it as easily as taking a walk while innocent people fail miserably. It is a tool and only a tool for LE but the tool isn't in the science of the LDT, it is in the reaction to it. Unfortunately most LE believe their colleagues who happen to run the test, because they know and trust each other. This can result on turning the focus into tunnel vision.

Hi SilkySifka,
Too! That's the word that escaped me in the previous post. Yes, it is an investigative too, not a way of determining guilt. Besides, there is still the burden of proof even if one fails and/or confesses.

I think there is another facet to the test and that is the suspense of the public or person taking the test, waiting on the pass or fail grade. If LE publishes a suspect failing the test, when in fact he/she passed, the focus is indeed on them but possibly a deliberate move on the part of LE. This information could put the real guilty party at ease and cause him trip over his own ego that he is not a suspect. Just a thought.
:moo:

 

[PlainJaneDoe]

In the law of the United States, a stipulation is an agreement made between opposing parties prior to a pending hearing or trial. For example, both parties might stipulate to certain facts, and therefore not have to argue those facts in court. After the stipulation is entered into, it is presented to the judge. In other legal systems a similar concept is called different names.- from Wiki

Just trying to understand this by thinking of examples....

Would an example be something like, both defense and prosecution acknowledge that the defendant was in a certain place at a certain time? Sorry, I'm having trouble getting the idea and understanding how it would be put into practice. Could anyone suggest a better example?

 

[johnQpublic]

Just trying to understand this by thinking of examples....

Would an example be something like, both defense and prosecution acknowledge that the defendant was in a certain place at a certain time? Sorry, I'm having trouble getting the idea and understanding how it would be put into practice. Could anyone suggest a better example?

http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/stipulation

 

[cluciano63]

Until and unless we know more...Isabel is the only victim here, IMO, and LE has to see it that way.

 

[SilkySifaka]

Hi SilkySifka,
Too! That's the word that escaped me in the previous post. Yes, it is an investigative too, not a way of determining guilt. Besides, there is still the burden of proof even if one fails and/or confesses.

I think there is another facet to the test and that is the suspense of the public or person taking the test, waiting on the pass or fail grade. If LE publishes a suspect failing the test, when in fact he/she passed, the focus is indeed on them but possibly a deliberate move on the part of LE. This information could put the real guilty party at ease and cause him trip over his own ego that he is not a suspect. Just a thought.
:moo:

Parents of missing children need the support of neighbors and friends. If it turns out that they are innocent, one of the reasons they have little to no support will be thanks to TPD's comments that imo have been geared to pressure them (and to be honest, don't see how it does except make things even worse in an already volatile situation in the best of circumstances) IF TPD made it look as if your employee was guilty would you keep him on? Or if you had been bringing over hot suppers would you go to the door again?

In this case the Celis's have done themselves no favors though as well. Unfortunately there is not a rule book but if one could be written as to how not to handle the media...they could write it.

Doesn't make them guilty though. Just really bad judgement in how it affects their childs case in terms of public awareness.

I happen to believe they both passed a LDT or imo it would have leaked somehow..some word would have gotten out into the media from someone..a clerk writing up a report, a close source to the media etc.

What i don't like about dumping added pressure on to parents without evidence is what it can do to the situation in the home. It can make a weak person snap and may never have happened before but if there was tension in the marriage or other tension, well lets just say I don;t take CPS being called in as anything so surprising given LE's obvious opinion and given the pressure cooker situation. There are really only two possibilities and one is DV, the other something found on the computer, neither of which makes SC more likely to be guilty..well the latter might.

I think this case is cold. The doc dump really points to both scenario's (which means I believe the parents innocent until evidence proves otherwise). There were signs of an intruder and then again there are signs that could go along with a parent IF you choose to look at the worst interpretations. LE is stumped imo.

 

[kat77]

Snipped:



Very little, from what we hear. I believe they have been there 3 times since she went missing.



Ain't that the truth! And now that the reward has reached $60,000, I am going to have to revive my Hoax theory. I always thought it was possible that this family might have gotten in over their heads financially and needed a big "payoff".

Could they have engineered this "abduction" with a family member, as a way to claim the reward money? Hey, they wouldn't be the first people to try! Perhaps Isabel is squirrled away somewhere with relatives, kept out of sight while the reward grows.

If this is the case, it would explain the calm demeanor of Sergio, and RC's comments about, "We'll get her back, it will just take a little longer than we expected."

Of course, if true, things have gone awry because they didn't stage the abduction scene well and so LE was suspicious from the start about their story.

But, what if??? And, how do you get out of this if it is the case?? Maybe that's why CPS stepped in? Maybe LE KNOWS this to be the case and feels SC might put the other kids at risk.

This is just my impression on the possibility of a financially motivated hoax. I think we know that there were severe financial difficulties over a several year period. I have posted it before, but the Recorder's office shows that their previous home was not sold by Sergio and Becky but actually taken back by the bank after foreclosure in May 2011 and was then resold by the bank afterward. I can post those details again if anyone wants to see it.

I did some research on the "money-making / fundraising" activities. I admit that the fundraising probably has not gone as well as it might have, because LE has never eliminated the family. But this would not have been anticipated, if there was a hoax or plan.

First,
You can file this under rumor if you want, since the statement has been modified now and I can only give links to blog sites that we can't use here (who copied and discussed this while it was still on the Isa website) You can google it yourself.

When I first read the bringIsahome.com website donation page soon after it went online, I remember it saying:

"A special fund has been established to assist the search for Isabel Mercedes Celis and to support the family. This money will be used to help the family with whatever they may need."

There were soon negative comments about the purpose of the fund being so open ended and the website now says:

"A special fund has been established to assist the search for Isabel Mercedes Celis and to support the family. This money will be used to help the family in their search for their daughter and helps the volunteers to print fliers, banners and other search materials."

The "whatever they may need" portion is no longer on their site but we don't know if they are required to use the donations only to search for their daughter or if it still includes support for whatever the family may need. IMO I suppose that paying the family's other bills would indirectly help them search, since it would allow them more time to concentrate on Isa.

Second,
At first I didn't see a way that anyone could privately profit from the 88-crime fund since it offered a reward for information leading to the arrest of whoever was responsible for a crime.

Then I found the 88-crime Victim Compensation page. It says:

"Crime Victim Compensation provides financial assistance for crime victims who have suffered a financial loss as the direct result of a crime. The perpetrator does NOT have to be charged or convicted for the victim to apply for assistance. However, the victim and claimant must FULLY COOPERATE WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS AND PROSECUTORS"

I'm not sure about the definition of crime victim. I assume it would include the family of an "abducted" child.

Maybe I'm being too suspicious, but it seems coincidental that "We are cooperating to the fullest extent with the investigation" were the first words that we heard from Sergio (even before mentioning Isa's name) when they made their initial press statement. I think many people wondered at that time why he would begin with a statement like that. When I saw that this was the stated Victim Compensation Fund requirement, it just stuck in my mind.

From their webpage, 88-crime victim compensation is available for:
Medical
Mental health counseling
Funeral
Crime scene clean-up
Loss of wages

http://www.pcao.pima.gov/victimcompensation.aspx

Third,
In the Today show interview Sergio said "There have been no calls for ransom. We have the reward ready." This comment confused many people because the only money we had heard about being available at that time was the $50,000 88-crime fund. This money was designated as a reward for information, not to pay a ransom.

It doesn't seem reasonable that only a few thousand dollars in local donations could be considered enough for a ransom. IMO if there was actually a more SUBSTANTIAL amount of money available at that time, it could have come from the Today Show.

I know you have discussed this. But I think that Sergio and Becky could truthfully answer that they were NOT paid for the interview, while accepting a LARGE DONATION for the Isa fund (which may be available for "whatever the family may need").

In the past, NBC has used various methods to indirectly pay people such as setting up an education fund or making a payment to a third party. In this case, the Isa fund was already there and accepting donations. The Celis would probably be required to deny payment as part of any deal. But didn't Sergio and Becky then start talking about how the money was coming in and going right back out for the search effort? Maybe they were thinking of a Today Show donation which had just been made to the Isa fund.

We have already discussed whether the Today show payment of their hotel bills was actually a form of compensation or payment. So, I do think SC and RC were at least parsing their words, when they said that they had NOT been paid. Maybe they received payment of the hotel bills plus a LARGE DONATION. IMO

Later in the local sit down interview, the reporter said that most average families wouldn't have the amount of money required for a ransom. Then he asked Sergio and Becky how much they could come up with personally and they said "Us? Nothing". So the reward/ransom money they mentioned on the Today show must have all been coming from donated sources.

IMO the approximately $20,000 that we have actually heard about being collected by the local fundraisers would be pretty insignificant compared to most kidnapper's ransom demands. So. I have a few questions.

1. Is there now a much larger amount of money from other sources in the Isa fund (maybe including a big Today show donation) and can it still be used for whatever the family may need?

2. Is there some form of accountability required on what the funds are used for or is it just at the discretion of the family?

3. And is the 88-crime victim compensation fund possibly paying for lost wages and crime scene cleanup?

 

[iSleuth]

I do not think CPS would ever say who or what the Celis' case is about. It is confidential. But,just looking at what transpired can be illuminating : SC has been barred from ANY contact with the two remaining children. No way to sugar coat or spin that...MOO

Thae family could mention it if they CHOSE to. IMO the no contact order makes SC look guilty. Just some thoughts...
JMO

I think you are right, that CPS can't disclose ( at this point) IC and RC could ( just like the LDT)

About the "barring from contact" maybe it's voluntary because he volunteered to because of some two or three strike policy with the agency. Maybe Rc has even more strikes, but because of certain delicate evidence at this moment in time - SC is doing what they do in baseball. " taking one for the team"

Maybe SC is ultimately more innocent than some/ all think in this and he 's been covering for the one person with "clear" and imperative supposed alibi -RC. ( what did she do before work- what time did she really leave- what time did she really get there?)

see? I am trying different theories trying to get away from SC.
Lately I'm all about the possibility of IC getting lost in the park the night before.

:-(
This feeling might pass.

:banghead:

PS is there an RV ( person or vehicle) connected to this case?

 

[Knox]

I dont trust LE anymore because of two cases.

LE can lie about anything they want and imo they lied to Steve because they had tunnel vision and thought he had something to do with the heinous crimes committed against his family.

And imo, LE lied again when they told an elderly grandmother (Ruth Lunsford) that she had failed too.

They were doing nothing more than putting pressure on people they were so sure were involved.

IMO

BBM- I'm surprised at how broad that statement is. Generally our views and opinions in this case, have been opposite. But I do enjoy reading your posts.

I don't know the cases you sited very well, so maybe my comment will be out of line in it's context. But, it seems to me that LE's job of solving crimes is getting more and more difficult. Perps are smarter and more educated about forensic evidence and it seems no body/circumstantial evidence cases are a rarity. If a perp can successfully get rid of a body, they stand a good chance of not being prosecuted.

I think it has been common practice through the years to twist the truth in an interrogation setting. I can see how that tactic works in some cases, and results in someone either confessing, or giving up details that helped solve the crime.

LE has a tough job, I wouldn't want to be in their shoes in these high profile cases. All :moo:

 

[spoiledmom]

I don't think these are the reasons why LE doesn't want assistance in their searches.

And IMO there is very little searching even going on by LE except sporadically. Why? I think LE has their suspect in their sights and are simply waiting for him to break/plea/confess (SC).

I agree 100%.

 

[Starry Night]

(in reply to Knox )
Yes, with information so readily available and all the crime shows-especially the true crime ones, perps can hide their tracks and crimes better.
This case is so frustrating.
Loose ends................hate it

 

[eileenhawkeye]

This is just my impression on the possibility of a financially motivated hoax. I think we know that there were severe financial difficulties over a several year period. I have posted it before, but the Recorder's office shows that their previous home was not sold by Sergio and Becky but actually taken back by the bank after foreclosure in May 2011 and was then resold by the bank afterward. I can post those details again if anyone wants to see it.

I did some research on the "money-making / fundraising" activities. I admit that the fundraising probably has not gone as well as it might have, because LE has never eliminated the family. But this would not have been anticipated, if there was a hoax or plan.

First,
You can file this under rumor if you want, since the statement has been modified now and I can only give links to blog sites that we can't use here (who copied and discussed this while it was still on the Isa website) You can google it yourself.

When I first read the bringIsahome.com website donation page soon after it went online, I remember it saying:

"A special fund has been established to assist the search for Isabel Mercedes Celis and to support the family. This money will be used to help the family with whatever they may need."

There were soon negative comments about the purpose of the fund being so open ended and the website now says:

"A special fund has been established to assist the search for Isabel Mercedes Celis and to support the family. This money will be used to help the family in their search for their daughter and helps the volunteers to print fliers, banners and other search materials."

The "whatever they may need" portion is no longer on their site but we don't know if they are required to use the donations only to search for their daughter or if it still includes support for whatever the family may need. IMO I suppose that paying the family's other bills would indirectly help them search, since it would allow them more time to concentrate on Isa.

Second,
At first I didn't see a way that anyone could privately profit from the 88-crime fund since it offered a reward for information leading to the arrest of whoever was responsible for a crime.

Then I found the 88-crime Victim Compensation page. It says:

"Crime Victim Compensation provides financial assistance for crime victims who have suffered a financial loss as the direct result of a crime. The perpetrator does NOT have to be charged or convicted for the victim to apply for assistance. However, the victim and claimant must FULLY COOPERATE WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS AND PROSECUTORS"

I'm not sure about the definition of crime victim. I assume it would include the family of an "abducted" child.

Maybe I'm being too suspicious, but it seems coincidental that "We are cooperating to the fullest extent with the investigation" were the first words that we heard from Sergio (even before mentioning Isa's name) when they made their initial press statement. I think many people wondered at that time why he would begin with a statement like that. When I saw that this was the stated Victim Compensation Fund requirement, it just stuck in my mind.

From their webpage, 88-crime victim compensation is available for:
Medical
Mental health counseling
Funeral
Crime scene clean-up
Loss of wages

http://www.pcao.pima.gov/victimcompensation.aspx

Third,
In the Today show interview Sergio said "There have been no calls for ransom. We have the reward ready." This comment confused many people because the only money we had heard about being available at that time was the $50,000 88-crime fund. This money was designated as a reward for information, not to pay a ransom.

It doesn't seem reasonable that only a few thousand dollars in local donations could be considered enough for a ransom. IMO if there was actually a more SUBSTANTIAL amount of money available at that time, it could have come from the Today Show.

I know you have discussed this. But I think that Sergio and Becky could truthfully answer that they were NOT paid for the interview, while accepting a LARGE DONATION for the Isa fund (which may be available for "whatever the family may need").

In the past, NBC has used various methods to indirectly pay people such as setting up an education fund or making a payment to a third party. In this case, the Isa fund was already there and accepting donations. The Celis would probably be required to deny payment as part of any deal. But didn't Sergio and Becky then start talking about how the money was coming in and going right back out for the search effort? Maybe they were thinking of a Today Show donation which had just been made to the Isa fund.

We have already discussed whether the Today show payment of their hotel bills was actually a form of compensation or payment. So, I do think SC and RC were at least parsing their words, when they said that they had NOT been paid. Maybe they received payment of the hotel bills plus a LARGE DONATION. IMO

Later in the local sit down interview, the reporter said that most average families wouldn't have the amount of money required for a ransom. Then he asked Sergio and Becky how much they could come up with personally and they said "Us? Nothing". So the reward/ransom money they mentioned on the Today show must have all been coming from donated sources.

IMO the approximately $20,000 that we have actually heard about being collected by the local fundraisers would be pretty insignificant compared to most kidnapper's ransom demands. So. I have a few questions.

1. Is there now a much larger amount of money from other sources in the Isa fund (maybe including a big Today show donation) and can it still be used for whatever the family may need?

2. Is there some form of accountability required on what the funds are used for or is it just at the discretion of the family?

3. And is the 88-crime victim compensation fund possibly paying for lost wages and crime scene cleanup?

How much do you think The Today Show paid them (if they did)? What do you consider to be a large donation?

 

[SmoothOperator]

Deleted to save my breath.