AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #22

[BetteDavisEyes]

I dunno, the idea that a family could stage an abduction for financial gain isn't new, and it isn't unique. Dumb, maybe, but not unheard of.

Also, I've seen it written that LE would be on to such a hoax by now. Well, maybe they are, and they're in waiting mode. LE were certainly onto the Balloon Boy hoax early on but had to wait until someone cracked. Turns out it was the youngest member of the family who spilled the beans.

I realize that the results aren't scientific, but as of now, only 7 votes out of a total of 162 have been cast for the hoax for monetary gain theory. I considered the possibility briefly due to the parents having experienced financial difficulties in recent years, but a hoax is not among my current considerations. That said, if I lived in Tucson and learned that this family has falsely reported that their daughter was kidnapped when they know that isn't the case, I'd be :furious:

 

[Lark2]

I realize that the results aren't scientific, but as of now, only 7 votes out of a total of 162 have been cast for the hoax for monetary gain theory. I considered the possibility briefly due to the parents having experienced financial difficulties in recent years, but a hoax is not among my current considerations. That said, if I lived in Tucson and learned that this family has falsely reported that their daughter was kidnapped when they know that isn't the case, I'd be :furious:

Bette, where can we view the survey results????

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

Bette, where can we view the survey results????

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=1398

 

[GracieLu]

At this point, I would rejoice if it was a hoax, because that would mean sweet Isa is still alive. I've been dreading the day I come to the forum and see "Deceased" on her thread. Please God, just let her be safe!

oh gosh, you said exactly what i feel/think everytime i log on to WS's. I am beginning to think we will never know what happened to Isa. *****Please God, just let her be safe***** Truly heartbreaking!

Welcome to WS's Galadriel! :seeya:

 

[LisaB]

I don't think these are the reasons why LE doesn't want assistance in their searches.

And IMO there is very little searching even going on by LE except sporadically. Why? I think LE has their suspect in their sights and are simply waiting for him to break/plea/confess (SC).

I don't know what made me think of JM just now, but there have been comments posted here asking why JM, the "self-appointed family-spokesperson," disappeared after the first couple of days. MOO, what if he saw, was told, or overheard something that gave him doubts about the abduction scenario. In his public statements, he specifically states that "the mother" is devastated, but doesn't say "the (or her) parents."

Perhaps he noted SCs overly calm demeanor, and was uncomfortable from the start, or maybe he started feeling things did not add up once the initial frenzy passed. I do not think JM would have put himself in front of the media so willingly if he was involved, but admit I could be wrong. In interviewing him, LE may have gotten information that kept them from being able to clear the immediate family. In the process, they would probably have caused JM to doubt the family's story and to step back from the spotlight.

 

[Madeleine74]

Madeline, you seem to be a Joe Friday, just the facts, science kind-of girl. What do you think of the FBI's Behaviour Analysis Unit, and other areas of LE that don't rely on traditional "hard evidence" or "facts" but more on nuance, psychology, etc.

Actually, I'm not like that at all. I believe in all the resources that LE and the FBI bring to bear on a case including their investigation, research, psychological analysis, behavioral analysis, etc. They are the experts and have the information and resources and know how to apply it. Most importantly they know the full scope of the case.

What I don't believe in and try not to do (and yes it's a personal choice) is speculate and make up theories based on imagination and/or using the small snippets of information released and creating a story out of it. I don't for a minute think I have any insight into a family I don't know, have never met, have never spoken to, and I'm not privy to the LE investigation other than what they've released. I also don't find it useful to project feelings onto the parents based on personal life situations (generic example: "when little Johnny went running out the door I felt...and then I felt.....and that means that Isa ...")

Hope that clarified things. To me "facts" are what LE/FBI has developed--forensic, physical, behavioral, digital, from whatever agencies and special units they utilize.

 

[BaxterDE42]

All this clean up....possible blood on the floor...no prints..SC sleeping...appearance of staged abduction and the urgency to clean again after the fact... WHEW!

I am leaning to my first gut instinct. SC had a visitor, whether friendly or otherwise and perhaps they they were doing a transaction of sorts and maybe even had a few hits and SC went out like a light after it was all done. The wipe up was to get rid of any specs of the merchandise.

Maybe SC was not at all alarmed immediately because he thought Isa was with this overnight visitor and would be coming in with tacos and coffee. What the H do I know?! I just can't get that scenerio (something related to it) out of my head. Family member or trusted friend who lives on the other side of legal (as in behavior)l.

Okay - that's where I am at the moment and will stay there until I review more of the docs. *I don't have a clue where this post will land. *
MOO

 

[white rabbit]

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=1398

this is exactly what makes our discussion so real; the fractured results of this poll. none of us really know and yet have so many differing opinions.

i realize we cannot post from a blog but for any of you ready to give up, read this compliment from a well-known crime blogger:

"Websleuth's has great coverage and insight on the case and they are running a poll: What happend to Isabel Celis? What happened to Isabel Celis? - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community
"

 

[Knox]

I understand and respect those who choose not to speculate or theorize in cases where we have limited factual information. This is a crime discussion forum though. If we all adhered to that philosophy, instead of being on thread 26, we might be on thread 2 instead. I like to see other members idea's, theories and hear about how their personal life experiences may relate to a particular circumstance in a case. We're not in a courtroom setting here, and we're not judge or jury.

Attention for Isa's disappearance is slowly falling off, but that happens in all missing cases. Unlike some here have mentioned, I don't think it is because the parents are not in front of the camera. I hope it is as some of you are saying. TPD is watching someone, but waiting like in Sierra Lamar's case to make an arrest. Unlike the aforementioned case, I hope they are able to find Isa and she is alive.

 

[Knox]

this is exactly what makes our discussion so real; the fractured results of this poll. none of us really know and yet have so many differing opinions.

i realize we cannot post from a blog but for any of you ready to give up, read this compliment from a well-known crime blogger:

"Websleuth's has great coverage and insight on the case and they are running a poll: What happend to Isabel Celis? http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?p=7962636"

Isn't Susan a guest on WS Radio from time to time? Didn't realize we could not link to her blog. Maybe it's because she is linked to PH, I know he is not linkable here?

 

[PlainJaneDoe]

Just because lark2 mentioned it, and I thought it was interesting. http://www.apa.org/pubs/books/4316073.aspx

 

[buggsmom]

Still hung up on the idea of a stranger abduction and how that person could take a child out of that yard...options/possibilities:

Enter
-over the wall or opening a wooden gate (double along the road side or single front entrance) - going into a window or through the front/back door.

Exit
- climb back over the wall (would need something directly on the other side of the electrical box to climb back over the wall carrying a willing or an unconscious child) or hand her over to 2nd perp on other side.

- leave from one of the wooden gates...assuming the larger one locks from the inside or the one by the front of the house (not knowing if those gates were disturbed and noted by documents released)

- exit through the house going across the family and living room, then out the front/back door (then one of the above to get off the property)

All of this assuming the Celis dogs didn't hear anything and alert/bark.

The neighbor said she heard the Celis dogs outside barking at 6:30am and they usually keep them outside (sometimes inside).

Assuming the dogs were outside, they ignored and didn't alert/bark at
-a stranger jumping the wall and landing on the dirt/graveled ground, removing a screen, opening a window and carrying out IC…then exit the property

- opening one of the wooden gates (never had a wooden gate that had a quiet latch!)then the window scenario as above...then exiting the property with IC.

-opening gate or jumping wall and entering the house…then exiting the property with IC.

Assuming the dogs were inside, they ignored and didn't alert/bark at
-an unfamiliar noise like a screen being removed, window opened, noises from IC's room

-stranger/abductor walking through the house to exit out the door

-any sounds being made outside in THEIR yard.

I'm sure there are other scenarios that can play out but the stranger abduction pieces are not fitting together for me. There could be information in the documents not released that would prove/disprove these assumptions.
This suspicion is based on the comments from SC and RC that they did not hear their dogs bark.

JMOO as always….

(had a much more detailed post written then computer locked up and lost it…argh!

 

[PlainJaneDoe]

Buggsmom, I'm sorry to hear about the lost post! Hate when that happens! Something I like to do is type my postup in Word or Notepad, save it, then copy/paste to the Reply to Thread screen. You probably already knew that but...it has saved me a number of times!

 

[BetteDavisEyes]

this is exactly what makes our discussion so real; the fractured results of this poll. none of us really know and yet have so many differing opinions.

i realize we cannot post from a blog but for any of you ready to give up, read this compliment from a well-known crime blogger:

"Websleuth's has great coverage and insight on the case and they are running a poll: What happend to Isabel Celis? http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?p=7962636"

Sweet! :tyou:

 

[EgyptNug]

I find the fact that the cashier was so forward and inquisitive about the little girl in your experience a bit troubling. To me a line is being crossed by the cashier and any info about a child, what school they attend, etc. SHOULD NOT be conveyed to a stranger. In these days you cannot give people the benefit of the doubt as we live in a world where people do crazy things!!!

I agree, although I witnessed a 70+ year old lady tell a little girl that she had a pretty dress on, while waiting for a table at a restaurant. The little girl was with her parents. The little girl starts SHOUTING "stranger! Stranger! Stranger!" at the top of her lungs! The senior lady almost had a heartache and the parents commended the little girl for good stranger-danger reaction. I thought is was good idea gone overboard.. I know the value of teaching kids how to stay safe, I had a guy try to get me into his car when I was about 8 or 9. But most abductors are family members, iirc, and certainly not little old ladies in olive garden..

And, I'll go a step further than that. After watching the debacle of the "public's help" in the Caylee case, I'd say the public is often a nuisance at best or downright dangerous at the worst.
.

I totally agree. I think the media attention to that trial made it impossible to find an intelligent jury that hadn't read of the trial and would be okay with sequestering. Also I blame the "csi effect". IMO, public involvement contributed in the factors allowing the guilty person to go free. Never again will I follow a case/trial like that and add to the media hysteria.

Apparent blood on the floor and Isa's dresser doesn't even have a print on it...wiped clean!

So she never got clothes out of her drawers and nothing was put in dresser since ...? last time of it being wiped clean. To me that is very unusual not to find any prints on the dresser. We need to know who cleaned it and wiped every drawer (man, I never do that) and when did they clean it.?

I think it is odd, too, and says to me that is is not a family member..
I guess I am in the minority, but Sergio strikes me as a good guy. Rebecca's demeanor bothers me more than SC's, as a mother I don't understand her lack of emotion. Both parents seem exhausted which makes it trickier for me to get a feel, otoh, I would expect more slip ups if tired and I don't see that.. I may eat my words but I just don't feel hinky about SC..

Eta:SC's 911 call, however, DID set off alarms for me, but the interviews I have watched do not set those alarms off

 

[Madeleine74]

I understand and respect those who choose not to speculate or theorize in cases where we have limited factual information. This is a crime discussion forum though. If we all adhered to that philosophy, instead of being on thread 26, we might be on thread 2 instead.

Understand the sentiment. However, I was specifically asked about my use of "facts only" and what that means to me and I answered it. And if you noticed, I kept my comments to what *I* do and don't do and what *I* find useful and not useful, and why. I'm not telling other people what they should do or what they should find useful or not useful.

 

[Knox]

Still hung up on the idea of a stranger abduction and how that person could take a child out of that yard...options/possibilities:

Enter
-over the wall or opening a wooden gate (double along the road side or single front entrance) - going into a window or through the front/back door.

Exit
- climb back over the wall (would need something directly on the other side of the electrical box to climb back over the wall carrying a willing or an unconscious child) or hand her over to 2nd perp on other side.

- leave from one of the wooden gates...assuming the larger one locks from the inside or the one by the front of the house (not knowing if those gates were disturbed and noted by documents released)

- exit through the house going across the family and living room, then out the front/back door (then one of the above to get off the property)

All of this assuming the Celis dogs didn't hear anything and alert/bark.

The neighbor said she heard the Celis dogs outside barking at 6:30am and they usually keep them outside (sometimes inside).

Assuming the dogs were outside, they ignored and didn't alert/bark at
-a stranger jumping the wall and landing on the dirt/graveled ground, removing a screen, opening a window and carrying out IC…then exit the property

- opening one of the wooden gates (never had a wooden gate that had a quiet latch!)then the window scenario as above...then exiting the property with IC.

-opening gate or jumping wall and entering the house…then exiting the property with IC.

Assuming the dogs were inside, they ignored and didn't alert/bark at
-an unfamiliar noise like a screen being removed, window opened, noises from IC's room

-stranger/abductor walking through the house to exit out the door

-any sounds being made outside in THEIR yard.

I'm sure there are other scenarios that can play out but the stranger abduction pieces are not fitting together for me. There could be information in the documents not released that would prove/disprove these assumptions.
This suspicion is based on the comments from SC and RC that they did not hear their dogs bark.

JMOO as always….

(had a much more detailed post written then computer locked up and lost it…argh!

Great post!!

Our dogs bark if someone is walking up the road. Mind you, they are in the garage with all the doors closed, no visual line of sight. The road is around 75' from the garage door (we are rural). I'm amazed and thankful for their sensory perceptions. I would pity the fool who tried to break into our home.

 

[Knox]

Understand the sentiment. However, I was specifically asked about my use of "facts only" and what that means to me and I answered it. And if you noticed, I kept my comments to what *I* do and don't do and what *I* find useful and not useful, and why. I'm not telling other people what they should do or what they should find useful or not useful.

I fully understood that you were responding to a direct question. That's why I did not quote your post in stating my opinion

 

[LisaB]

(snip)
As an aside-it is probably not a mistake that Tucson has a news station called KGUN-after listening to the scanner so much.

I can't get to their website from work because our IT department has blocked "gun".

 

[CJMAJORGIRL24]

I understand and respect those who choose not to speculate or theorize in cases where we have limited factual information. This is a crime discussion forum though. If we all adhered to that philosophy, instead of being on thread 26, we might be on thread 2 instead. I like to see other members idea's, theories and hear about how their personal life experiences may relate to a particular circumstance in a case. We're not in a courtroom setting here, and we're not judge or jury.

Attention for Isa's disappearance is slowly falling off, but that happens in all missing cases. Unlike some here have mentioned, I don't think it is because the parents are not in front of the camera. I hope it is as some of you are saying. TPD is watching someone, but waiting like in Sierra Lamar's case to make an arrest. Unlike the aforementioned case, I hope they are able to find Isa and she is alive.

I agree that Isabel's case is falling off , and it is heartbreaking to me. Just like Aliayah's case. I pray that Isabel is found and that we aren't here for eight months wondering what happened to her.

Isabel's case does remind me of Aliayah Lunsford's in a way. While the FBI hasn't arrested Lena or Ralph Lunsford for harming Aliayah, CPS removed the surviving children and even removed a set of newborn twins. Just like Sergiio has "voluntarily" been removed from the home where his children live.

Makes me wonder---:banghead: