AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #23

[gliving]

sexual predator assaulting girls in phoenix - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

"Just months after Phoenix police arrested suspects in the "Serial Shooter" and "Baseline Killer" attacks, another serial predator is on the loose in the city. This time, the target is little girls asleep in their beds. Police say the attacker is shockingly brazen, creeping in through bedroom windows, snatching the girls and sexually assaulting them."

01-31-2007

I hope they found this guy.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Prof, I understand how you feel and what you are saying. My opinion is that I will not defend the Celis' because I have no evidence telling me they are innocent of it all unfortunately and a lot of possibles. However, I clearly don't see any evidence that tells me they have to be guilty. I'm not here to defend them, but I think a lot of 'going beyond the facts' goes on here that is leading to 'they have to be guilty' or even 'they ARE guilty'.... maybe too much so. And, I do wish posters would quite misstating those facts ... like saying there was blood found on the carpet.

I do respect everyone's opinion and how they decide to look at this case.

While you say you will not defend the Celis' because you have no evidence they are innocent and I can understand that but for me.... I will not accuse them nor deem them guilty before I see some concrete substantiated evidence showing me that either one is involved in Isa's abduction. We all have different individual ways we look at cases.

I dont look at that as defending anyone but simply waiting for the evidence to come forward that shows who really abducted Isa. "I" would much rather do that than to falsely accuse someone/anyone. Thats just the way "I" look at it though and what others decide to do is their business.

There is no right or wrong way to look at this case because each poster has their own entitled rights to look at it as they wish and form their own opinions at anytime and keep those opinions if they choose to do so throughout.

I am hoping though that soon LE will let us know something new. The main thing is Isa needs to be found and the one who did this punished severely. We all want justice for Isa...on that we are all in agreement.

IMO

 

[gliving]

Mod warning

Too many rude, snarky personal remarks on this thread.

You don't have to agree but you guys do have to respect members' whose opinions may differ from your own.

Agree to disagree and move on. Stop the petty stuff.

Reminder - this thread is about ISABEL.

Thanks beach. I'll bump your post up for the new page.

 

[SapphireSteel]

It is very true that there is so much we don't know.

However, thanks to the release of the 550 documents, there is a lot we DO know...but what we know brings up more questions than it answers.

Personally, I follow the science of statement analysis, and have always been something of a human lie detector. Years of dealing with deception through my work has perfected my skills to the point that my accuracy rate extremely high.

Every skill, instinct and piece of education I have tells me that SC is involved, based not on the documents, but on transcripts of statements and interviews I have watched with my own eyes.

Unfortunately, the fact that immediate family are the most statistically likely to be the ones to hurt/kill children, plus the fact that SC has been blocked from seeing his children, plus the reports of CPS involvement last December, plus my own common sense regarding things like barking dogs, indicate so far that that is exactly what has happened.

So far I see so many worrisome details, yet supporters don't?

That baffles me...but I sure hope you guys are on my jury, if I ever get charged with murder!

 

[pieper4]

There is also the well known psychological phenomenon that if you're looking for something, you tend to see it. So, for instance, if you're looking for blue cars, all of a sudden, you see blue cars everywhere even though you'd never really noticed them before.

If a person hears a rumour that SC is being seen with his two sons, I believe that could predispose someone to seeing any relatively young, dark haired man with two boys, one tween and one teen, as SC and his sons.

But I know from visiting Tucson myself that there are tens of thousands of young, dark haired men who appear to have young, dark haired kids.

I can't vouch for both points. I looked for a desk (just the right size, features, style) for my daughter for 2 years. Finally settled on something not quite what we wanted. Two days later, there are desks for sale exceeding our standards in every damn consignment and thrift store in Tucson. For me, when I "look" I tend not to "see". But I'm an odd duck.

Point two... agreed. There are bazillion brunettes in Tucson. Hispanic, NA, Asian and otherwise. At least 49% of those brunettes' offspring are males.

:double wink:

 

[eileenhawkeye]

I feel like we don't have much evidence pointing to either direction. Most of our discussion seems to be centered on statistics (and how much you believe in them) and how the parents have acted post-disapearence. That's the problem with these missing child cases; we don't have much forensic evidence.

 

[Prof]

sexual predator assaulting girls in phoenix - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

"Just months after Phoenix police arrested suspects in the "Serial Shooter" and "Baseline Killer" attacks, another serial predator is on the loose in the city. This time, the target is little girls asleep in their beds. Police say the attacker is shockingly brazen, creeping in through bedroom windows, snatching the girls and sexually assaulting them."

01-31-2007

I hope they found this guy.

Yikes.... I hope so too, Gliving...

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0131abductions0131.html?&wired

Snips:

"All the victims have been Hispanic. The girls were taken even while adults were in the homes. "

"Police say the attacker is "extremely determined," picking out his victims ahead of time, going directly to them in the home and taking them regardless of the high risk of getting caught. "

"These are not opportunistic," Markey said. "These are planned. He's done some sort of surveillance. He's thought this out."

"We know he's probably not going to stop."


"The attacker usually strikes in the nighttime darkness. In every case, adults have been home at the time. Some victims were sharing the room with another child when attacked."

 

[beach]

Thanks beach. I'll bump your post up for the new page.

Thanks.

Last warning -

the next time I jump on this thread and see the bickering, I am going to TO whoever is participating. Not gonna look to see where it started, just gonna issue them to everyone who is arguing between themselves.

 

[time]

I do respect everyone's opinion and how they decide to look at this case.

While you say you will not defend the Celis' because you have no evidence they are innocent and I can understand that but for me.... I will not accuse them nor deem them guilty before I see some concrete substantiated evidence showing me that either one is involved in Isa's abduction. We all have different individual ways we look at cases.

I dont look at that as defending anyone but simply waiting for the evidence to come forward that shows who really abducted Isa. "I" would much rather do that than to falsely accuse someone/anyone. Thats just the way "I" look at it though and what others decide to do is their business.

There is no right or wrong way to look at this case because each poster has their own entitled rights to look at it as they wish and form their own opinions at anytime and keep those opinions if they choose to do so throughout.

I am hoping though that soon LE will let us know something new. The main thing is Isa needs to be found and the one who did this punished severely. We all want justice for Isa...on that we are all in agreement.

IMO

Ocean ... I agree. I wouldn't accuse them either. I think we don't have enough to do that. I don't think I've done that and I'm only in the camp that throws up their hands and say I really don't know. Maybe my posts came off strange. I don't think I'm very expressive in writing because I don't edit a lot and hone it.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

It is very true that there is so much we don't know.

However, thanks to the release of the 550 documents, there is a lot we DO know...but what we know brings up more questions than it answers.

Personally, I follow the science of statement analysis, and have always been something of a human lie detector. Years of dealing with deception through my work has perfected my skills to the point that my accuracy rate extremely high.

Every skill, instinct and piece of education I have tells me that SC is involved, based not on the documents, but on transcripts of statements and interviews I have watched with my own eyes.

Unfortunately, the fact that immediate family are the most statistically likely to be the ones to hurt/kill children, plus the fact that SC has been blocked from seeing his children, plus the reports of CPS involvement last December, plus my own common sense regarding things like barking dogs, indicate so far that that is exactly what has happened.

So far I see so many worrisome details, yet supporters don't?

That baffles me...but I sure hope you guys are on my jury, if I ever get charged with murder!

I dont profess to have any expertise but I have discussed more criminal cases throughout the years than I can count and I will continue to rely on the way I look at cases. It has served me very well for many years. I am not one to play leap frog based on mere speculation when no evidence has even been revealed.

And what did we learn from the 550 page document dump? What pointed to guilt concerning Sergio? Nothing, imo.

I use to follow those who analyze statements made by family members concerning cases like this and others involving adults and I quickly learned if these so called experts didnt find deception they simply would have nothing to write about. They may as well rubber stamp everyone they size up. It doesnt matter if they are dead wrong because they never come back and discuss that in their blogs. They just move on to another poor soul to tear them to shreds and say the same things ad nauseaum. Frankly, I think anyone who has lived long enough has the ability to detect deception since they have done it in their own lives. I dont need to rely on an expert to tell me what I am to believe.

Statisitics are irrelevant to each missing child imo because at this time none of us has a clue which statistical category Isa belongs in and wont know until this case is solved.

I will not try to guess the reason Sergio thinks it is in the best interest of his children to be away from them at this time. And there is no evidence known that the December incident had anything to do with Sergio.

I dont think you would want me on your jury. I have been a juror five times including murder cases. If the DA showed me the evidence BARD against you then I would vote Guilty..no doubt about it.

IMO

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Ocean ... I agree. I wouldn't accuse them either. I think we don't have enough to do that. I don't think I've done that and I'm only in the camp that throws up their hands and say I really don't know. Maybe my posts came off strange. I don't think I'm very expressive in writing because I don't edit a lot and hone it.

I adore you, Time. You are always so nice and respectful. Thank you for being you.

I may have misunderstood your post. I have had a very busy day and its late and my 'thinker' may not be thinking all that well.

imo

 

[pieper4]

http://www.manta.com/c/mm528k9/chiquita-enterprises

this is one of isa's neighbors who was quoted in the doc dump that their house was a rental. look at the address.

imo it has no bearing on the case. but i'm sleuthing. go ahead and argue. this child is still missing.

Gotta love these online directories. I'm pretty sure an ammo retailer can't be located in the midst of a residential neighborhood. Looking at my own neighborhood I seem to have some oddities like that, too. Some middle-eastern based educational facility appears down the road where there are a houseful of pre-teens and a slew of quads. Both parents work for TEP. We laugh about their supposed affiliation with this odd institution they've never heard of.

This Chiquita doesn't appear to have a listing with the Secy of State of Arizona... assuring me they don't sell ammo there -- or perhaps at all, since there are regulations requiring ownership and registration. Very odd.

 

[Jules71]

Gotta love these online directories. I'm pretty sure an ammo retailer can't be located in the midst of a residential neighborhood. Looking at my own neighborhood I seem to have some oddities like that, too. Some middle-eastern based educational facility appears down the road where there are a houseful of pre-teens and a slew of quads. Both parents work for TEP. We laugh about their supposed affiliation with this odd institution they've never heard of.

This Chiquita doesn't appear to have a listing with the Secy of State of Arizona... assuring me they don't sell ammo there -- or perhaps at all, since there are regulations requiring ownership and registration. Very odd.

The owner's name listed on the manta site matches the name on the whitepages listing for that address - just two houses over from Isa. I could not find a bbb listing or business license either but I didn't search for too long.

The business came up on more than one listing on the web.
Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

 

[Dee10]

You would be surprised these days the people that are able to run a business from their home, even wholesale or drop ship. I have a person near me, that sells mining equipment all over-the-world (and is successful), but you would NEVER know. Wonder where these on-line directories come from anyway? Interesting.

 

[Dee10]

The owner's name listed on the manta site matches the name on the whitepages listing for that address - just two houses over from Isa. I could not find a bbb listing or business license either but I didn't search for too long.

The business came up on more than one listing on the web.
Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

Just a thought, is it possible these people have a business somewhere else & use their home address for mail? It still wouldn't explain they thought the Celis house was rented. It is odd.

 

[GrainneDhu]

sexual predator assaulting girls in phoenix - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

"Just months after Phoenix police arrested suspects in the "Serial Shooter" and "Baseline Killer" attacks, another serial predator is on the loose in the city. This time, the target is little girls asleep in their beds. Police say the attacker is shockingly brazen, creeping in through bedroom windows, snatching the girls and sexually assaulting them."

01-31-2007

I hope they found this guy.

Not only is that creepy and horrible, it's also creating a secondary danger: fire traps.

One of the articles cited in that thread said that parents are blocking windows with heavy furniture to prevent this perp from getting in. I really fear that there will be a home fire and someone will be trapped inside because they cannot get out fast enough.

Are there any programs to subsidise buying window alarms for those who cannot afford them? Parents feel this overwhelming urge to protect their children but they may inadvertently cause a greater danger to their children if they take measures like blocking windows.

This perp clearly relies on stealth to commit his crimes, so a simple window alarm that makes a loud alert will probably be enough to drive him off.

 

[OtherEyes]

http://www.manta.com/c/mm528k9/chiquita-enterprises

this is one of isa's neighbors who was quoted in the doc dump that their house was a rental. look at the address.

imo it has no bearing on the case. but i'm sleuthing. go ahead and argue. this child is still missing.

It appears that this site lists all sorts of wholesale merchants under the same Business category "Ammunition, Except Sporting in ...Whol Durable GoodsOther Miscellaneous Durable Goods Merchant Wholesalers"
It also lists "409,214 U.S. companies matching "Chiquita Enterprises".

While looking into Chiquita Enterprises I found that "Chiquita Brands International is a leading international marketer, producer and distributor of quality fresh fruit, processed fruit and vegetable products. As Chiquita conducts business worldwide, it maintains a large, distributed workforce in over 70 countries making it a truly global company."

I believe this neighbor just runs an at home business not in ANY way associated with ammunition. IMO( I have linked another business; a beauty supply that is also is in this category.)

But thanks for keeping the conversation and sleuthing going!:thumb:

http://www.manta.com/c/mr5qjpf/west-coast-beauty-supply

http://www.manta.com/mb?search=Chiquita+Enterprises

http://www.workday.com/resources_static/customer_case_studies/chiquita.php

 

[ditdot]

Hello everyone have not posted in a while...but whats up with the silence???? no news...no pleas no anything...has the case gone cold??? I was reading docs again and I noticed Sergio name is on one then say ALIAS and its blacked out alot!!! also when says who was present when police were on sight says male name and woman who claims to be males GF...blacked out...possibly Justin??? then I notice address up top being blacked out and came across page saying officer responded to (blacked out) and officer was told to stay make sure noone climbed over gate or inside....reason I mentioning is because is anyone back at the home??? also Justin is out of sight??? hmmm . Chelsea stated Justin owed money..she is family thats why I am starting to think he is staying in the home now and this is some kind of ransom situation , and TPD knows but to avoid placing Isa in more danger they are leading us to Sergio...Justin..ETC. It is just too quiet no news at all... just some thoughts I have been thinking just my opinion... anyone ????

 

[ditdot]

this is in response to question about window alarms rather then blocking window..you can get alarms for windows online I believe $28 dollars my neighbor uses on her door but they are pretty loud..i think comes with 4 alarms you can look up on line

 

[Azcrabcakes]

I suspect the bickering is rooted in frustration at no new info. I love that everyone tosses out their thoughts and opinions of what COULD have happened. Since none of us knows anything more, why not toss out what we think? No one is right and no one is wrong.

About statement analysis... I like the IDEA of it, but I don't think it can be considered as gospel. One example I recently read would classify me as a guilty person! It stated an innocent person, upon walking out to their driveway from their home, and seeing their car gone, wold call 911 and say "My car has been stolen." A guilty person, as in a hoax, or insurance fraud, would state "My car is gone!" I am quite sure I would say "My car is gone!" That was what I thought as I read the article, anyway.

I hear so much misuse of language, by native and non-native English speakers alike, it would be hard to evaluate their words for guilt. Errors are common with words like insure/ensure, borrow/loan, barely/hardly, by accident/ on accident... and so on. Even pretty well-educated people misuse words and phrases.