IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #12

[nikb]

If and this is a big if, the perp nwas busy with the girls at that time.

Yeah... that sickening thought occurred to me very shortly after posting, too.

 

[GrainneDhu]

BBM

That is the key right there;

If you KNOW you are lying AND IF YOU CARE...


If someone is a true sociopath and does not have any shame or emotional connection to what they do, then they will not register on the polygraph.

And someone who is having a strong response to the subject can register a false deceptive.

In 2009, Amber Dubois's stepfather failed 8 polygraphs in her disappearance. He wasn't guilty but he had such a strong emotional response in talking about his stepdaughter that he registered as deceptive every time.

I also suspect that after the first few failures, it may have become a matter of him expecting to fail again and that expectation fuelling the stress and emotional response he experienced.

He wasn't guilty at all. John Albert Gardner was the guilty party, someone completely unknown to the victim and her family. He happened to be cruising the area when he saw Amber and pulled her into his truck.

Part of what confused the investigation were eyewitness reports placing her at or very near the school grounds before she disappeared. In reality, she was on a side street several blocks from the school when Gardner grabbed her.

As in so many eyewitness accounts, the eyewitnesses made a mistaken ID (even though most of them knew Amber personally) or were confused as to the exact day they saw her at or near the school grounds.

 

[nervous_nellie]

You all didn't get the storm that came through Iowa yesterday? We had a couple hours of pounding rain and my yard has decided that it may be worth it to come back to life. The daylilies, which I thought were done for the year, are putting up new sprouts, so we'll have more flowers in a few days.

It's too late for the corn but the beans may be salvageable.

The feds are allowing farmers to cut hay on conservation land or turn stock out onto it, under emergency rules.

oh yes, we got that storm and were without power most of the evening... im out in farm country and there was some damage to trees & plants...but it ushered in the cooler air which felt fantastic today!

 

[Jax49]

OT

This is from today's NASCAR race where two cars carried info on L & E on there deck lids.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/jeff-g...ic-race-pocono-raceway-014000504--nascar.html
On Sunday, August 5, 2012, NASCAR finished out a weekend at Pocono Raceway with the NASCAR Sprint Cup Pennsylvania 400, which was to consist of 160 laps. With storm clouds moving in, drivers took to the track to make the most of the race for while it lasted. Though the race ended after just 98 laps, it was an eventful race for one driver. After the race ended on lap 98, Jeff Gordon was in the lead. Gordon's victory is his first of the season and it helps him remain competitive in the Chase for the Cup.


Unfortunately, the race was marred by a tragedy. As the race was ending, the grandstand was struck by lightening. Initially it seemed that 10 people had been injured and all were transported to the hospital. Sadly one fan was dead on arrival. Another fan is in critical condition............................

 

[MotherOcean]

Your post gave my brain a jumping off point going into a direction I hadn't thought of before.

The videos show SOMEONE on two bicycles going by really fast.

Almost everyone here finds it nearly impossible to believe that someone could identify the girls as being the people on the bikes, however LE came out and said early on that the people on the bikes were DEFINITELY the girls.

You said perhaps the police don't want to tip their hand... which got me to thinking... maybe that's why they said they were certain it was the girls on the bikes. Maybe they didn't want to tip their hand.. their "hand" being that they can see on the video that it's definitely NOT the girls on those bikes, racing away.

Just another thought to throw into the mix..

I can't see LE being dishonest with such an important detail. Not when Abben had been saying that they had no idea what had happened to the girls and then later on they were appealing to anyone who was in the lake area at anytime that day to contact them.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I can't see LE being dishonest with such an important detail. Not when Abben had been saying that they had no idea what had happened to the girls and then later on they were appealing to anyone who was in the lake area at anytime that day to contact them.

I agree LE is certain the girls seen on the video was Lyric and Elizabeth.

I also think the local LE and the FBI are not in agreement about the girls being alive.

I think the FBI is more matter of fact and bases it solely on the fact they have no evidence they are dead which certainly doesnt mean they alive either.

Local LE seems to really have their doubts as to whether the girls are alive.

Sadly I have to agree more with local LE. I have seen the FBI say that in other cases and the victim(s) turned out to be deceased.

Whoever took them is not going to bring them back and they may never be found.

 

[MotherOcean]

I think the girls did make it to the lake that day too. The way auntie described each dog's reaction to each girl's scent, they had to have been to the lake.

I think they did, too. I think the dogs picked up their scent, though I'm not sure where exactly they were tracked to, and I believe Mr. Carpenter's testimony because he knew the girls and saw them often enough to call their riding on his street "common".

 

[SapphireSteel]

And someone who is having a strong response to the subject can register a false deceptive.

In 2009, Amber Dubois's stepfather failed 8 polygraphs in her disappearance. He wasn't guilty but he had such a strong emotional response in talking about his stepdaughter that he registered as deceptive every time.

I also suspect that after the first few failures, it may have become a matter of him expecting to fail again and that expectation fuelling the stress and emotional response he experienced.

He wasn't guilty at all. John Albert Gardner was the guilty party, someone completely unknown to the victim and her family. He happened to be cruising the area when he saw Amber and pulled her into his truck.

Part of what confused the investigation were eyewitness reports placing her at or very near the school grounds before she disappeared. In reality, she was on a side street several blocks from the school when Gardner grabbed her.

As in so many eyewitness accounts, the eyewitnesses made a mistaken ID (even though most of them knew Amber personally) or were confused as to the exact day they saw her at or near the school grounds.

Despite all these false leads and red herrings, LE managed to find the perp.

Maybe they aren't as dumb as they seem...:doh:

I'm joking. Seriously, everything here is true. LDT's are a TOOL, not 100%, just like most investigative techniques.

It's like when you are in court...there has to be proof beyond REASONABLE doubt, not beyond ALL doubt.

There are no absolutes in crime and LE...but there are statistics, likliehoods, forensics, profilers, LDT's and a million other non-proof tools that LE use to track down an offender.

Some of them are amazing...I remember reading a case where the profiler had said "you're looking for a guy with a stutter"...God alone knows what led him to this...but it was BTK, and he was right.

Experience, knowlege, brainstorming, evidence (circumstantial or not) all come to play by people who are far, far more knowlegable about crime than Joe on the street, or any perp.

This is why I get so annoyed when people say "I hope LE did this, I hope they checked that"...they are not stupid, usually, especially in a case like this where Sherrif Abben almost immediately realised he was out of his depth.

I have a lot of faith in the Thin Blue Line.

 

[TobyWong*]

How do we know there were no car tyre tracks?

tia.

this google earth "photo" dated 6.2011 clearly shows, to me, tire tracks.. I do see some of those to be lawn equipment doing it's job going round and round but Imo this shows random tire tracks at a random place in time, which to me says that yes, it's possible to get a vehicle in there. Bikes out of the back of vehicle and ran or rode up to where they were found, purse chucked and perp walks back to vehicle. jat.imo

 

[SapphireSteel]

this google earth "photo" dated 6.2011 clearly shows, to me, tire tracks.. I do see some of those to be lawn equipment doing it's job going round and round but Imo this shows random tire tracks at a random place in time, which to me says that yes, it's possible to get a vehicle in there. Bikes out of the back of vehicle and ran or rode up to where they were found, purse chucked and perp walks back to vehicle. jat.imo

Thank you.

The perfect place for a trap, indeed.

:moo:

 

[cluciano63]

Despite all these false leads and red herrings, LE managed to find the perp.

Maybe they aren't as dumb as they seem...:doh:

I'm joking. Seriously, everything here is true. LDT's are a TOOL, not 100%, just like most investigative techniques.

It's like when you are in court...there has to be proof beyond REASONABLE doubt, not beyond ALL doubt.

There are no absolutes in crime and LE...but there are statistics, likliehoods, forensics, profilers, LDT's and a million other non-proof tools that LE use to track down an offender.

Some of them are amazing...I remember reading a case where the profiler had said "you're looking for a guy with a stutter"...God alone knows what led him to this...but it was BTK, and he was right.

Experience, knowlege, brainstorming, evidence (circumstantial or not) all come to play by people who are far, far more knowlegable about crime than Joe on the street, or any perp.

This is why I get so annoyed when people say "I hope LE did this, I hope they checked that"...they are not stupid, usually, especially in a case like this where Sherrif Abben almost immediately realised he was out of his depth.

I have a lot of faith in the Thin Blue Line.

Well Gardner was found by his DNA being on Chelsea and then confessing to Amber to get out of the DP.

 

[azuredewdrop]

I am not a lawyer...

But as I understand it, yes, he still has to pay. However, child support payment judgments take into account the parent's ability to pay. If the parent is making $5 a day, the child support payments will be reduced accordingly.

That is, assuming that the imprisoned parent has no other assets.

It also depends on the custodial parent. If the custodial parent is not relying on government assistance, they may choose to just let the issue of child support drop.

If the custodial parent does depend on government assistance, then the matter of child support is in the hands of the Department of Human Services (or that state's equivalent).

In Iowa all cases of child support payments are handled by the Child Support recovery Unit wheather they were on assistance or not. The CSRU will actively keep track of payments, issue payments and keep track of what is owed. If the custodial parent is on assistance or was on assistance they will pursue it harder but even if they weren't on assistance, they will pursue payment including taking the debtor to court for contempt for non-payment and having them jailed.

Also, reviews to have payment adjustment can only be done every 2 years and not less. So if it has been adjusted in the last 24 months, the person in jail would not be able to get a reduction until after the 24 months has passed. Of course since they'd already be in jail they won't do much but accrue an outstanding debt that will be waiting for them when they get out.

 

[Hippy Chick]

The thanks button wasn't enough.

What you just said.

It seems clear to me that Eileen Hawkeye spoke the truth: the reason we don't hear as much about child victims of the rich is that there are so few rich people, period.

I can certainly think of several people who were raised with wealth and are survivors of child sexual abuse. And in every case, the perp(s) weren't the hired help, they were family members or close friends.

In the US, to be poor is to be scorned. The assumption is that poor people just don't try hard enough and to be poor is indicative of a character flaw. The truth is, the system is set up to penalise the poor and further enrich the rich.

I'll step off my soapbox now.

i also think rich peoples kids go to private schools are usually driven and picked up, not waiting at bus stops or getting off alone. Also security sytems are probably better and super rich have nannies, butlers, drivers helping take care of their children. IMO

 

[SK_Hunter]

I found the article and posted above but it doesn't help much with this question. I think he must've been on shore if Aunt T. talked to him since she was on the trail and not out in the lake. MOO. He said he didn't see the girls. Wish we knew what counts as a little boy for Aunt T. especially since it sounds like he was unattended when she talked to him. I have to think he was young but not super little. Also wish we knew what counts as a long time to this boy.

Wondering if he was accompanied there by like a father, uncle, brother figure who had to suddenly leave and told him to stay there, he'll be right back. But it is obvious from the boys comments that whomever were not "right back". Took quite awhile it seems, the type of time probably, 4 - 8hrs, that would be necessary to get the situation under control for this type of crime.

Age and times would be nice as the parents could chime in about him being left there all day, unattended.

Verification of if he traveled alone of with someone is needed? Did he walk? Bike? Picked up? Dropped off?

If he neither saw nor heard those girls, and he was there all day, than I believe the girls never made it to the lake. Bikes were placed at the lake which would corroborate their scent being there. This however would cast serious suspicion IMO on the bike rider's story who had to swerve to avoid the bikes in the path. This would imply the bikes where placed in the pathway, than moved by the lake. No UNSUB(S) in their right minds would return to a crime scene TWICE to move bikes. Only other way was that the crime was in progress. Which the biker would of ridden right by. In saying that I see only two possible scenarios:

A. UNSUBS moved the bikes twice. Crime in progress or return to scene.
B. Bike riders story is false and he should be further scrutinized.

The bikes were either in the path or not in the path. If what the bike riders said is true, than the UNSUBS moved the bikes twice or the crime was in progress. Boy fishing nearby hears nothing. Figure in statistics and odds of this happening, it just seems odd. IMO

***Assuming abduction either at the lake and bikes placed or before the lake, bikes placed at lake.

 

[katydid23]

i also think rich peoples kids go to private schools are usually driven and picked up, not waiting at bus stops or getting off alone. Also security sytems are probably better and super rich have nannies, butlers, drivers helping take care of their children. IMO

I don't think 'rich' kids are going missing as often. But they are highly vulnerable in other ways. A whole lot of them are sexually or mentally abused by their 'nannies, tutors, drivers and helpers.' I know this first hand because most of my kids friends were home alone in big mansions.

 

[TobyWong*]

I tried to get close as possible w/o losing to much detail. I swear i see tire tracks from house on Arbutus across the street to the grass area. Not that that means anything! It just looks like mabye, someone in that house could have, back last year used 4 wheelers so much that they left a track from the garage right across to the Meyers Lake trail. IMO.Idk I may be way off.

eta. it looks like tracks just from turning the corner into the driveway there but i really don't know, except that there are tire tracks in the grassy area.

 

[katydid23]

Wondering if he was accompanied there by like a father, uncle, brother figure who had to suddenly leave and told him to stay there, he'll be right back. But it is obvious from the boys comments that whomever were not "right back". Took quite awhile it seems, the type of time probably, 4 - 8hrs, that would be necessary to get the situation under control for this type of crime.

Age and times would be nice as the parents could chime in about him being left there all day, unattended.

Verification of if he traveled alone of with someone is needed? Did he walk? Bike? Picked up? Dropped off?

If he neither saw nor heard those girls, and he was there all day, than I believe the girls never made it to the lake. Bikes were placed at the lake which would corroborate their scent being there. This however would cast serious suspicion IMO on the bike rider's story who had to swerve to avoid the bikes in the path. This would imply the bikes where placed in the pathway, than moved by the lake. No UNSUB(S) in their right minds would return to a crime scene TWICE to move bikes. Only other way was that the crime was in progress. Which the biker would of ridden right by. In saying that I see only two possible scenarios:

A. UNSUBS moved the bikes twice. Crime in progress or return to scene.
B. Bike riders story is false and he should be further scrutinized.

The bikes were either in the path or not in the path. If what the bike riders said is true, than the UNSUBS moved the bikes twice or the crime was in progress. Boy fishing nearby hears nothing. Figure in statistics and odds of this happening, it just seems odd. IMO

But I think this boy fishing was on the other side of the lake,correct?

Because they drove to the lake and then walked up to the first 'random' people they saw. But they were not near the bikes or they would have found the bikes at that time, imo.

How far away from the bikes did the family first go when they went on their search with Aunt T, grama and the 12 yr old brother?

 

[SK_Hunter]

Thanks for asking this. It was the reason I asked.

2 pages behind....has this been linked yet??

 

[SouthernMom]

Is there another gate other than the one in the picture that is right beside the lake? It has been said that this is the gate near where the bikes were found. In the picture, there is no room for a car to be parked there, and it has been said that the lake was even higher on the day the girls were abducted.

 

[Hippy Chick]

I don't think 'rich' kids are going missing as often. But they are highly vulnerable in other ways. A whole lot of them are sexually or mentally abused by their 'nannies, tutors, drivers and helpers.' I know this first hand because most of my kids friends were home alone in big mansions.

yes i agree, they are more abused in the home but as far as random abductions on the streets i think they are a little safer in that aspect.