One thing we debate a lot in this forum is distance between MPs and UIDs and the impact on the likelihood of a possible match. I have long been curious on what the actual stats are on matches made after several years, regardless of circumstance (homicide, suicide, accidental, etc).
I have started to compile a spreadsheet based on available information about resolved cases, and what it reveals is pretty interesting. I think as I continue to build it out (CarlK can vouch for these type of spreadsheets being time consuming love's labors) I will be able to share more in depth analysis, but here are some interesting insights based on the first 50 cases with available data. I think its something to keep in mind when making matches...and may help us develop new methods for narrowing the scope of MPs to match.
*The average distance between MPs and located remains is 46.
*Most fall between the 20-35 mile range...There are a couple of cases where the distance is significant (one cross country case I left out of average), but for the most part, regardless of circumstance, MPs are located within a 35 mile radius.
*Not surprisingly, DNA has been critical in matching up MPs and UIDs. This underlines the need for families of MP to register their DNA. I am wondering if all reporting agencies are giving proper information to families about resources available to do so?
*So far, I have noted that demographic determinations made on UIDs (race, gender) impeded matches.
*This may seem obvious, but its nonetheless interesting that a lot of UIDs are located in rural or wooded locations, regardless of circumstances. Naturally, this good be because chances of finding remains are statistically lower when obscured from view...but it also opens the possibility for additional search techniques and locations when a MP case is hot.
If anyone has any additional suggestions for data that interests them with matched/resolved cases as I continue to build this out, I would love to hear it. My end goal is ultimately to develop some kind of mapping so its possible to visually and mathematically analyze typical distances between MPs and UIDs
I have started to compile a spreadsheet based on available information about resolved cases, and what it reveals is pretty interesting. I think as I continue to build it out (CarlK can vouch for these type of spreadsheets being time consuming love's labors) I will be able to share more in depth analysis, but here are some interesting insights based on the first 50 cases with available data. I think its something to keep in mind when making matches...and may help us develop new methods for narrowing the scope of MPs to match.
*The average distance between MPs and located remains is 46.
*Most fall between the 20-35 mile range...There are a couple of cases where the distance is significant (one cross country case I left out of average), but for the most part, regardless of circumstance, MPs are located within a 35 mile radius.
*Not surprisingly, DNA has been critical in matching up MPs and UIDs. This underlines the need for families of MP to register their DNA. I am wondering if all reporting agencies are giving proper information to families about resources available to do so?
*So far, I have noted that demographic determinations made on UIDs (race, gender) impeded matches.
*This may seem obvious, but its nonetheless interesting that a lot of UIDs are located in rural or wooded locations, regardless of circumstances. Naturally, this good be because chances of finding remains are statistically lower when obscured from view...but it also opens the possibility for additional search techniques and locations when a MP case is hot.
If anyone has any additional suggestions for data that interests them with matched/resolved cases as I continue to build this out, I would love to hear it. My end goal is ultimately to develop some kind of mapping so its possible to visually and mathematically analyze typical distances between MPs and UIDs