Tropical Storm Stan

Wasn't it reported that there would be a least 2 more named storms, probably of hurricane status, before the end of the season?
 
Pook said:
Wasn't it reported that there would be a least 2 more named storms, probably of hurricane status, before the end of the season?

I had heard the other day it was not before the end of season...but before the end of the week :eek: One was tracked toward the Gulf, the other going back out to sea. I've been watching....I was in Rita's path, but she turned East and we didn't get a drop of rain here. Might I add there wasn't a loaf of bread or bottle of water to be bought either after the scare!!!!

I am keeping a close eye!
 
Pook said:
Wasn't it reported that there would be a least 2 more named storms, probably of hurricane status, before the end of the season?
Pook, the end of the hurricane season isn't until the end of November, so the odds are pretty good that we will see a few more hurricanes. The names chosen for any additional hurricanes, in order, are: Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma. This has been quite the year, with Rita, and Katrina, ranked number 3 (897 MB), and 5 (902 MB),, respectively, in intensity, since they began keeping records. We don't need any more records set this year.

From Accuweather:

A tropical wave along 80 west south of 23 north is moving to the
west-northwest at 12 knots. During the past 12 hours, the system has developed a low-level circulation along the southern end of the wave near 16 north. Wind shear is light over this portion of the wave so it should continue to develop and could become a tropical depression over the next 12-24 hours. It should track just to the north of Honduras later Thursday and into the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. It may become a tropical storm prior to reaching the Yucatan and if it did, it would be named Stan. From there it should move across southern Mexico or even the Bay of Campeche later in the weekend or early next week. High pressure aloft should remain strong enough to the north to keep this feature to the south of Texas, but a weaker ridge would allow room for a northward shift. The northern part of the wave is being sheared and should be slow to develop over the next couple of days.
 
Buzzm1 said:
Pook, the end of the hurricane season isn't until the end of November, so the odds are pretty good that we will see a few more hurricanes. The names chosen for any additional hurricanes, in order, are: Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma. This has been quite the year, with Rita, and Katrina, ranked number 3 (897 MB), and 5 (902 MB),, respectively, in intensity, since they began keeping records. We don't need any more records set this year.

From Accuweather:

A tropical wave along 80 west south of 23 north is moving to the
west-northwest at 12 knots. During the past 12 hours, the system has developed a low-level circulation along the southern end of the wave near 16 north. Wind shear is light over this portion of the wave so it should continue to develop and could become a tropical depression over the next 12-24 hours. It should track just to the north of Honduras later Thursday and into the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. It may become a tropical storm prior to reaching the Yucatan and if it did, it would be named Stan. From there it should move across southern Mexico or even the Bay of Campeche later in the weekend or early next week. High pressure aloft should remain strong enough to the north to keep this feature to the south of Texas, but a weaker ridge would allow room for a northward shift. The northern part of the wave is being sheared and should be slow to develop over the next couple of days.
:sick: We can't take anything else in Texas. So many of us are grabbing our butts looking for help. :eek:
 
deandaniellws said:
:sick: We can't take anything else in Texas. So many of us are grabbing our butts looking for help. :eek:
Right now, according to Accuweather, if this storm develops it will probably be steered South of Texas, but Accuweather did allow themselves an out.

A tropical wave along 81 west south of 23 north is moving to the
west-northwest at 12 knots. A low level circulation developed along the wave near 16 north Wednesday afternoon but all the strong convection associated with it has diminished Wednesday evening. The strongest convection is farther north near 19 north and it may get going again later Wednesday night closer to the low level circulation. Wind shear is light over this portion of the wave so it should continue to develop and could become a tropical depression over the next 12-24 hours. It should track just to the north of Honduras later Thursday and into the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. It may become a tropical storm prior to reaching the Yucatan and if it did, it would be named Stan. From there it should move across southern Mexico or even the Bay of Campeche later in the weekend or early next week. A ridge of high pressure aloft will build over the lower Mississippi Valley later this weekend and early next week and should steer this feature to the south of Texas, but if the ridge is weaker or farther north northward shift in the track could occur.


http://tinyurl.com/6fmsy
 
Buzzm1 said:
Right now, according to Accuweather, if this storm develops it will probably be steered South of Texas, but Accuweather did allow themselves an out.

A tropical wave along 81 west south of 23 north is moving to the
west-northwest at 12 knots. A low level circulation developed along the wave near 16 north Wednesday afternoon but all the strong convection associated with it has diminished Wednesday evening. The strongest convection is farther north near 19 north and it may get going again later Wednesday night closer to the low level circulation. Wind shear is light over this portion of the wave so it should continue to develop and could become a tropical depression over the next 12-24 hours. It should track just to the north of Honduras later Thursday and into the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. It may become a tropical storm prior to reaching the Yucatan and if it did, it would be named Stan. From there it should move across southern Mexico or even the Bay of Campeche later in the weekend or early next week. A ridge of high pressure aloft will build over the lower Mississippi Valley later this weekend and early next week and should steer this feature to the south of Texas, but if the ridge is weaker or farther north northward shift in the track could occur.

http://tinyurl.com/6fmsyhttp://tinyurl.com/6fmsy
I meant that we already had so many others misplaced from the storms that we couldn't take anything else.
 
Far Out In The Atlantic:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211617.shtml?3day

19TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

As of 5 p.m. Friday, tropical depression 19 was located near 11.8 north and 32.9 west or about 665 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It wil moving to the west at 2 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars or 29.74 inches. TD 19 should slowly track north and could become a tropical storm within 12-24 hours. If it did, it would be named Stan. This feature should generally track to the north-northwest toward the open waters of the Atlantic over the weekend.

The following information refers to the other system around Cuba
A broad area of low pressure located along 84 west and south of 22 north is tracking west-northwest at 10-15 knots. The center of circulation has taken a jump north over the pas 12-24 hours and it appears to be close to 20 north. It should track near the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and then into the open waters of the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. We are concerned about the farther north development of this feature and its future impact on the Texas or Mexican coast. Latest models are farther north with the track of this feature over the weekend and the GFS now takes it into the Lower Rio Grande Valley on Monday. We think that this feature can still become a depression over the weekend and pass across the northern Yucatan. If it passes north of the Yucatan, provided it has become a depression, it could strengthen into a tropical storm or possibly a hurricane in the southwest Gulf by early next week. If it goes over the Yucatan then it would take longer to recharge. Meanwhile, upper level shear is and will be favorable for development from the northwest Caribbean into the southwest Gulf through early next week. Anybody with interests along the Texas coast into northeast Mexico should keep up to date on this feature.

http://tinyurl.com/aa8qo
 
Well, as far as I am concerned it can stay way out there, too
 
Tropical Depression 20 is becoming better organized and bearing down on
the Yucatan Peninsula.


At 2:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Depression 20 was located at 19.3 north, 85.8 west, about 110 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. The depression is nearly stationary. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Gruesa to Cabo Catoche. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward to Campeche. Maximum sustained winds are about 35 mph, and the estimated minimum pressure remains at 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches. The Hurricane Hunters recently arrived in the storm, and have found winds of about 30 mph so far.

The depression will track over the northern Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night, perhaps briefly reaching tropical storm intensity before landfall. It will then move into the open waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday. After that, the storm should gradually intensify as it tracks westward toward northeastern Mexico, and it could become a hurricane before making landfall. The potential is there for the track to be far enough north to impact southern Texas, and for it to be far enough south that southern Texas remains untouched. All those with interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should be rushing storm preparations to completion, and those along the southern Texas and northeastern Mexican coastlines should monitor the progress of this storm carefully.

As of 11:00 a.m. Saturday, Tropical Depression 19 was located near 14.1 north and 33.8 west, or about 665 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Depression 19 was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and an estimated central pressure of 1008 millibars, or 29.77 inches. TD 19 should slowly track north and could become a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. This feature should generally track to the north-northwest toward the open waters of the Atlantic over the weekend.

The first of the two depressions to reach storm intensity will be named Stan, the second Tammy; either depression could reach tropical storm strength by late Saturday afternoon.

A tropical wave along 74 west, south of 24 north, shows little sign of development. Another wave located near 20 west, south of 20 north, will have to be watched for possible development. An upper-level trough of low pressure interacting with a tropical wave to the northeast of Puerto Rico will have to be watched for slow development over the weekend. This feature could be destined for the Southeast coast of the United States next Tuesday or Wednesday. Another area of disturbed weather southwest of Bermuda will shift west and could bring rich moisture to the Southeast coast early next week.
 
Tropical Depression #20 has become Tropical Storm Stan, while T.D. #19 is still unnamed:

4 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

...TROPICAL STORM STAN MAKING LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST... ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM... SOUTH OF
TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
COZUMEL MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY... BUT IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BUT IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM SOON AFTER EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165
KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/020854.shtml


ETA: There are some tropical waves that might become more organized and effect the SW coast of the U.S. this week and bear watching.
 
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 7
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Sun Oct 02 2005

...depression Remains Poorly Organized Over Eastern Atlantic...

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Nineteen Was
Located Near Latitude 16.0 North... Longitude 34.8 West Or About
715 Miles...1155 Km... West Of The Cape Verde Islands.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The North-northwest Near 8 Mph
...13 Km/hr... And This Motion Is Expected To Continue During The
Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph... 55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24
Hours... But Only A Slight Increase In The Winds Could Make The
Depression A Tropical Storm.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1008 Mb...29.77 Inches.

Repeating The 5 Am Edt Position...16.0 N... 34.8 W. Movement
Toward...north-northwest Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds... 35 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1008 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
11 Am Edt.

Forecaster Knabb
 
Buzzm1 said:
Tropical Depression 20 is becoming better organized and bearing down on
the Yucatan Peninsula.

At 2:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Depression 20 was located at 19.3 north, 85.8 west, about 110 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. The depression is nearly stationary. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Gruesa to Cabo Catoche. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward to Campeche. Maximum sustained winds are about 35 mph, and the estimated minimum pressure remains at 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches. The Hurricane Hunters recently arrived in the storm, and have found winds of about 30 mph so far.

The depression will track over the northern Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night, perhaps briefly reaching tropical storm intensity before landfall. It will then move into the open waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday. After that, the storm should gradually intensify as it tracks westward toward northeastern Mexico, and it could become a hurricane before making landfall. The potential is there for the track to be far enough north to impact southern Texas, and for it to be far enough south that southern Texas remains untouched. All those with interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should be rushing storm preparations to completion, and those along the southern Texas and northeastern Mexican coastlines should monitor the progress of this storm carefully.

As of 11:00 a.m. Saturday, Tropical Depression 19 was located near 14.1 north and 33.8 west, or about 665 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Depression 19 was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and an estimated central pressure of 1008 millibars, or 29.77 inches. TD 19 should slowly track north and could become a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. This feature should generally track to the north-northwest toward the open waters of the Atlantic over the weekend.

The first of the two depressions to reach storm intensity will be named Stan, the second Tammy; either depression could reach tropical storm strength by late Saturday afternoon.

A tropical wave along 74 west, south of 24 north, shows little sign of development. Another wave located near 20 west, south of 20 north, will have to be watched for possible development. An upper-level trough of low pressure interacting with a tropical wave to the northeast of Puerto Rico will have to be watched for slow development over the weekend. This feature could be destined for the Southeast coast of the United States next Tuesday or Wednesday. Another area of disturbed weather southwest of Bermuda will shift west and could bring rich moisture to the Southeast coast early next week.
Just curious where this report came from. It reads like Accuweather's.
 
By SW, I am assuming you mean California?
 

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