Flu pandemic could kill 150 million, UN warns

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Casshew

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A global flu pandemic could kill as many as 150 million people if the world fails to prepare for an expected mutation of the bird flu virus enabling it to spread from human to human, the United Nations said on Thursday. Dr. David Nabarro of the Geneva-based World Health Organization said U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has asked him to head up a worldwide drive to contain the current bird flu pandemic and prepare for its possible jump to humans.


If the virus spreads among humans, the quality of the world response will determine whether it ends up killing 5 million or as many as 150 million, Nabarro told a news conference.

The last flu pandemic, which broke out in 1918 at the end of World War One, killed more than 40 million people and drove home the vulnerability of a world where borders had less and less meaning, he said.

It seems very likely the H5N1 bird flu virus will soon change into a variant able to be transmitted among humans and it would be a big mistake to ignore that danger, he warned.

"I am almost certain there will be another pandemic soon," Nabarro said.


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Casshew said:
A global flu pandemic could kill as many as 150 million people if the world fails to prepare for an expected mutation of the bird flu virus enabling it to spread from human to human, the United Nations said on Thursday. Dr. David Nabarro of the Geneva-based World Health Organization said U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has asked him to head up a worldwide drive to contain the current bird flu pandemic and prepare for its possible jump to humans.


If the virus spreads among humans, the quality of the world response will determine whether it ends up killing 5 million or as many as 150 million, Nabarro told a news conference.

The last flu pandemic, which broke out in 1918 at the end of World War One, killed more than 40 million people and drove home the vulnerability of a world where borders had less and less meaning, he said.

It seems very likely the H5N1 bird flu virus will soon change into a variant able to be transmitted among humans and it would be a big mistake to ignore that danger, he warned.

"I am almost certain there will be another pandemic soon," Nabarro said.


Full Story
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There was a lengthy segment on recently that traced some of the deaths in China from the bird flu. Out of 3 in one family that contracted it, one girl died, one girl survived with no residual problems, and one son survived but it permanently destroyed any chance that he will be able to live anything resembling a normal life, he's basically disabled for life, which probably won't be that long. They say it just a matter of time before it mutates with a transmittable flu, and then the pandemic will begin.
 
According to ABC Radio News, they corrected themselves and said 7.5 million was more realisitic of a number.
 
I wouldn't worry about it. It will just be a really bad flu. People who are immune comprimised will suffer the most. And people who live in impoverished conditions who can't get help. I think we, who live in a modern society shouldn't worry. If you get sick just stay home to prevent spread and wash your hands and don't stress, that's the healthiest thing you can do. Stressing brings down your immunity.
 
MistyM said:
I wouldn't worry about it. It will just be a really bad flu. People who are immune comprimised will suffer the most. And people who live in impoverished conditions who can't get help. I think we, who live in a modern society shouldn't worry. If you get sick just stay home to prevent spread and wash your hands and don't stress, that's the healthiest thing you can do. Stressing brings down your immunity.
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MistyM, make that a really, really, really, really, bad flu. The young man that I mentioned that survived was left permanentlly with about 20% of his lung capacity, and he was very healthy going in; he gets exhausted just getting out of bed.. They don't actually know why it is selective as to how it affects certain healthy individuals more than others. It is a very deadly flu; the survival rate isn't that good.
 
On the World Health Organization website http://www.who.int/en/you can follow the updates from the people in charge of containing it, and even read the minutes of their meetings. Nothing is blanked out.

I followed the SARS outbreak on there, and it was the most up to date and complete information out there. I was actually impressed, and it takes a lot to impress me lol.
 
The Spanish flu in 1910 killed many healthy young men........

This bird "flu" can be transmitted in just hours from overseas to North America. Just one person passing through a crowded airport.......

This flu has already "mutated" from birds to humans and could further mutate which will frustrate any attempts at a vaccine.

Quarantine will be required, hospital wards will be overflowed, health care will be overburdened, there will not be any vaccines(if possible) for months, people will not go into areas where others go, companies will shut down, schools will shut down, and the stock of tamiflu will be worth its weight in gold........if production can be even achieved to produce enough

There will be no flights anywhere, health care workers and other officials will be the first to get the vaccine and treatment, mask and gloves will be required for even a routine visit to a public place.

This is not going to be a bad flu, but a flu that will have reprecussions worldwide in mortality and the ecomony.......

7.5 million deaths worldwide seems a very conserative estimate.....

SARS was and is a walk in the park compared to this flu.......it will take more then washing your hands to get past this........

Who knows if this flu will only be one strain, it could mutate into several strains, all requiring a vaccine and when that particular vaccine is produced, the flu could have mutate already...........

Scary stuff, but it is overdue to happen...........
 
Statins are somewhat protective, if you have taken them for a month or so before getting the flu. Maybe it's time we all have our cholesterol levels taken now, and get "on them"?
My mom had the "Spanish flu", it was 1918, every door had a crepe, it wasn't a cough and bounce back . She was in a coma for days, her legs turned black, her lung capacity was forever diminished leaving her open to a bout of pneumonia each year for her entire 77. Catching a rather mild flu eventually was the end of her. Flu shots in the elderly are likely less than 25 % effective, no matter what your doc tells you. It's frightening, and horrible, but out of our control.
 
There were a couple of episodes of the old Fox tv series MILENNIUM that dealt with a bird-based disease causing an epidemic in America. In that case, the virus bore a resemblance to Mad Cow Disease and Ebolla, in that eating infected chickens and chicken byproducts was the trigger, and the first symptom was nosebleeds, followed by hemorraghic fever/fits/seizures. It was pretty grim and extremely believable.
 
CyberLaw said:
The Spanish flu in 1910 killed many healthy young men........

This bird "flu" can be transmitted in just hours from overseas to North America. Just one person passing through a crowded airport.......

This flu has already "mutated" from birds to humans and could further mutate which will frustrate any attempts at a vaccine.

Quarantine will be required, hospital wards will be overflowed, health care will be overburdened, there will not be any vaccines(if possible) for months, people will not go into areas where others go, companies will shut down, schools will shut down, and the stock of tamiflu will be worth its weight in gold........if production can be even achieved to produce enough

There will be no flights anywhere, health care workers and other officials will be the first to get the vaccine and treatment, mask and gloves will be required for even a routine visit to a public place.

This is not going to be a bad flu, but a flu that will have reprecussions worldwide in mortality and the ecomony.......

7.5 million deaths worldwide seems a very conserative estimate.....

SARS was and is a walk in the park compared to this flu.......it will take more then washing your hands to get past this........

Who knows if this flu will only be one strain, it could mutate into several strains, all requiring a vaccine and when that particular vaccine is produced, the flu could have mutate already...........

Scary stuff, but it is overdue to happen...........
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The only reason I exist is because my grandmother's first husband died during the Spanish Flu epidemic and she needed help to support her and her three young children, so she married my grandfather.
 
sissi said:
Statins are somewhat protective, if you have taken them for a month or so before getting the flu. Maybe it's time we all have our cholesterol levels taken now, and get "on them"?
My mom had the "Spanish flu", it was 1918, every door had a crepe, it wasn't a cough and bounce back . She was in a coma for days, her legs turned black, her lung capacity was forever diminished leaving her open to a bout of pneumonia each year for her entire 77. Catching a rather mild flu eventually was the end of her. Flu shots in the elderly are likely less than 25 % effective, no matter what your doc tells you. It's frightening, and horrible, but out of our control.
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My mother lost a 16 year old older sister to the Spanish flu during that same time.

If the bird flu mutates and begans to be transmitted by humans, there will be a very serious problem as they won't be able to successfully contain it. Also, if it can mutate/combine with another virus, it will most likely mutate with multiple viruses, making it virtually impossible to contain, and difficult to combat. Scary to think that we could have another Aids like virus. Despite the sophistication of modern-day medicines, there seems to be even more sophisticated viruses appearing that present major challenges to disease control agencies.
 
Just to add a little real life story to this:

A home for the elderly, I think it is a nursing home is under a no visitors, doors are locked policy.

Several residents have died in the last few days, another two yesterday....because of a mystery flu like illness that has yet to be identified.

No one can leave and no one can go in, except Government Officials.

It is not SARS, or the avian flu, nor it is any type of flu ever seen before because there are no test to identify it.

I read an article today, that it just won't be one type of antiviral that will be required in the event of a pandemic, but several may be needed taken at the same time, and who knows if the disease will mutate making any any anti virals not effective.........

You think New Orleans was bad when it came to class, just wait and see what will happen when only the rich can afford the anti-virals that can save their lives and that of their kids. The rich can and will pay anthing especially when it comes to being "treated" like everyone else.

The Black market and Doctors who will offer the limited supply of anti-virals for a price that only the rich can afford.........
 
Linda7NJ
Registered User Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 858

Bush seeks military option on bird flu

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WASHINGTON -- President Bush, stirring debate on the worrisome possibility of a bird flu pandemic, suggested dispatching American troops to enforce quarantines in any areas with outbreaks of the killer virus

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/a...-+National+News
 
After the "wonderful" job Bush et al has done running the country, especially the Katrina debacle, one has to wonder if this is such a good thing.

It seems every time Bush "sends" in the Military, everyone suffers..........

Let me ask this: Is there going to be enough troops to send into different area that may have been effected by the flu, what would their role be, how would they respond to citizens.

Is is going to be an "agressive policy" to shoot people, help people, administer anit-virals, food, water......or will it be a policy that "might is right" and it does not matter who is harmed in the process.

With the current situation - in my City - 10 people dead, 20 more affected, still no word on what type of infection this is.........but it was "voluntarly" contained without the military.........

Also with the SARS problem we had a few years ago, again it was treated and contained without the military.

But with a huge, huge snowstorm a few years ago.....the Mayor was the "laughing stock" of Canada because he asked the Military to "dig out" our City.

Makes one wonder..........especially after Katrina.......
 
<<WASHINGTON -- President Bush, stirring debate on the worrisome possibility of a bird flu pandemic, suggested dispatching American troops to enforce quarantines in any areas with outbreaks of the killer virus>>

OH GOD,, yeah right, thanks a lot bush, for your help... so,, what is he gonna do-- order the military to shoot people on sight, who try to leave the city.. or peole who try to get in with food, water or vaccines?? he might as well nuke the whole city and put the people out of their (our?) misery.

furthermore, he's gonna have a withdraw some of those folks from iraq (which he says he will not do) if we are going to have a military presence on EVERY street going to and from EVERY city that is affected. has he bothered counting how many roads there are around an american city of a large size (which is obviously where it would strike first)?
 
Yeah, a far better idea is for Bush to throw his hands up in the air and say well since there's nothing we can do, kiss your butts goodbye!

If you've got any better suggestions on how to handle this, why not share them? I'm sure sitting around bad mouthing others is a far superior idea.
 
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