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  1. #31
    BetteDavisEyes's Avatar
    BetteDavisEyes is online now "Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy night."
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Metro Detroit
    for the safety of everyone in the path of Hurricane Matthew.

  2. #32
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    CA always, FL now
    Haiti Wakes up to Devastation


    Interactive wind map/timeline.


  3. #33
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Oh good, the trip throurgh Cuba did upset him a little more than anticpated!!

    The satellite presentation of Matthew has degraded since its

    interaction with the mountains terrain of eastern Cuba with the

    eye no longer discernible ( could just be eyewall reformation )
    in infrared satellite pictures. Data from

    the Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft show that Matthew has

    weakened slightly. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level

    winds of 118 kt and SFMR winds of 109 kt to the northeast of the

    center. Based on these data the initial wind speed has been lowered

    to 110 kt. Matthew will be moving over sea surface temperatures of

    29 to 30 degrees celsius and the shear is expected to remain low (bad)

    during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow some

    slight restrengthening while it moves through the Bahamas.

    Increasing shear later in the forecast period is likely to cause

    gradual weakening.

    Matthew is moving northward or 350/8 kt. A northwestward turn is

    expected to occur today as the ridge to the north of Matthew builds

    westward. This should steer the hurricane through the Bahamas and

    near the East Coast of Florida during the next 48 hours. After that

    time, the global models turn the hurricane northward, then

    northeastward when a ridge to the northeast of Matthew shifts

    eastward and a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the eastern

    United States. The 0000 UTC GFS has shifted slightly west of the

    previous run, and is now close to the UKMET and ecwmf tracks. The

    new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through

    72 hours, and shows a track very close to much of the East Coast

    of the Florida Peninsula. Only a slight deviation to the west of

    forecast track could result in landfall in Florida. The last few

    iterations of the global models have been trending toward a solution

    in which the trough is not deep enough to completely lift Matthew

    northeastward. As a result, the NHC track has been shifted

    significantly southward at day 5, but it remains well north of

    the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models.

    Key messages:

    1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm

    surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in

    portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

    Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other

    government officials in those countries.

    2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel

    to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through

    South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this

    far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to

    the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major

    hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep

    all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take

    another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United

    States to clarify.

    3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia,

    South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend,

    even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to

    specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the

    remainder of the U.S. East Coast farther to the north. At a

    minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely

    along much of the U.S. East Coast later this week and weekend.

    4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing potential storm surge

    flooding maps, and prototype storm surge watch/warning graphics for

    Matthew. It is important to remember that the potential storm surge

    flooding map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,

    but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of

    inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In

    addition, because the flooding map is based on inputs that extend

    out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding

    potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.

    Last edited by CARIIS; 10-05-2016 at 08:10 AM.

  4. #34
    Join Date
    Jun 2012

    Please take no offense if you follow hurricanes !

    A tid bit for folks dont follow hurricanes - the pressure given in each adverisy is super important.The lower the worse, but how I "use" it is if has dropped from the last run- the hurricane is getting stronger

    BUT, at the time of the model run when they are getting wind speeds the "machine" has not really cranked up yet.
    So if it (pressure and by how much from last run) is lower than last run, the winds at the next run are going to be worse.

    Kinda like it takes time, even tho the throttles have been pushed forward on an airliner there is a delay in increased thrust!

    You can then, also, anticpate the increase ,sort of , of winds in the next run. Typically the pressures dont go up or down more than a couple of a millibars.

    He really blew up quick

    So if ya look at the wind speeds compared to the millibars in the last run the next run is where you will see the actual degree of wind speed increase


    A couple of days ago pressure 979/100 mph, then next run pressure 968 pretty quick drop by more than a couple of millibars.. At that time winds reported at 100. But the pressure ia dropping.

    Watch what happens at the next run (to the actual speeds) big jump.. -.

    There is a correlation between runs but it is like it takes time (the next advisory) before you see wind increase based on the decline or increse in presurre in wind speeds on the following run -- whew those last three words are what I have been tying ot point out!

    Feel like I am garbling this - it s like a darn word problem which i Dispisesd.

    Take note of pressures - notice trends and then further down the line you will see , in dealyed fashion the actual wind speeds - hum maybe that is better !!

    Not trying to be a smarty pants here. But this is turning into serious cra#.

    Have no idea who is or is not a hurricane enthusist. Hope not to insult anyone. Tid bits:
    Consisely stated "Sheer " is either good or bad. A lot of sheer sheers the hurricane apart, while little or no sheer allows allows the machine to do whatever the hell it wants!

    Steering currents as they sound - create the highway for it to follow.

    The water temp is huge, typically they need at least 80 to start. It is going to start to go over water that is 89, very not good!

    This guy has potential to be a very bad boy, Casue now it does not seem as if he is gonna plow into land. Which translates to he, in all liklihood he is not gonna diminsih in intensity the way a typical storm does at landfall, casue his mouth is staying in super hot water the whole trek up FL.

    He is gonna keep getting energy even tho one half is over land, the other half is sweeping up all the energy from thw warm waters.

    He will proably do this one or two times:

    Not gonna even try to put in my own words!

    Eyewall replacement cycles, also calledconcentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.

    And finally , visually do the clock , from noon to 3 - if you are where it is gonna be "hitting" you in noon to three quadrant, your experince is going to be drastically different than if the back end (6-to 9) is going over you

    Troughs , in my head, are like big supermans (or batmans!) and they like push the storm around.

    Hope this helps a little

    The way it looks now Oralndo and Titsvile are going to get the noon to three quadriant and this is not nice!!


    No code has to be inserted here.
    Last edited by CARIIS; 10-05-2016 at 09:06 AM.

  5. #35
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    CA always, FL now


    You may want to turn your speakers down first.

  6. #36
    Looks like I've been sparred this hurricane. Good thing, because I left my Sandy-devastated home in March in anticipation of it being elevated and I still haven't returned.

    praying for everyone's safety....

  7. #37
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    I was in Cuba during a Category 3 storm and I was so impressed with how the community responded to ensure that everyone was safe. The biggest danger during a hurricane is flying debris. Everyone went into action to secure absolutely everything. I read a couple of days ago that, in Cuba, lights were removed from traffic light standards to ensure that they didn't become flying debris. When I was there, deck chairs were put into swimming pools, small boats and catamarans were tied to buildings. Everyone was safe after the hurricane.

    In Savannah, no one seems too concerned, perhaps because for the past couple of decades storms have blown by and hit South Carolina. I hope Savannah is lucky again this time. The general mood is that it will be nothing more than a bit of rain from a tropical storm.

    Regardless, I'm going to pick up a few supplies - just in case.

  8. #38
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Stay safe my Eastern state friends. We've recently had major storms here that were bad, but this is a whole level up of scary! Listen to officials and go get supplies!

    I will be thinking of you all.
    .Find William, Kyron and all the other missing children. Thinking of the families

  9. #39
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Just got the notification that Orange county schools are following Broward county's lead and closing Thursday and Friday.
    Be safe all.

  10. #40
    My daughter moved to Orlando in 2009 to start college and she's still there after college, found a job in Florida. This is her first "real" hurricane experience, she wasn't here in NJ during over devastation from Sandy in 2012.

  11. #41
    skibaboo's Avatar
    skibaboo is offline <3 The amazing Mr Skibs, GBNF <3 Now an 'official' crazy cat (& Map) lady.
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    North Yorkshire, UK
    Quote Originally Posted by Pamela_Brewer View Post
    Oh my, that is creepy!

    Hillsborough 15/4/1989 JFT96 GBNF YNWA *Verdict - The REAL Truth: 96 Liverpool fans were unlawfully killed*

    Celebrating Mr Skibaboo RIP Baljeev Johal, my dear friend. RIP

    Case Map Database - Links to all Case Maps I have created, and their related Websleuths threads

  12. #42
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Quote Originally Posted by skibaboo View Post
    Oh my, that is creepy!
    Very! I saw a post where someone colored it green and it was the grinch!
    Hopefully Matthew won't look anything like that tomorrow !

  13. #43
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Hurricne Charley hit orlando a a cat three

    Here was landfall other side of the state

  14. #44
    Join Date
    Jun 2012

  15. #45
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Jacksonville, Florida
    Evacuations ordered for two zones in Duval Co., Florida. Schools and government offices closed Thur and Friday.

    Stay safe everyone.
    Reply with Quote is everyone's friend
    “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.” Patrick Moynihan
    Note to self - just because there is bait in the water, it doesn't mean the little fishies have to bite.

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