Hurricane ERNESTO-Cat 1 expect Cat 3 after leaving Cuba /Heads up FLORIDA, MERGED

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Buzz Mills

Buzz Mills

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
660 MILES...1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N...67.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

[/B]
 
Its still 2000 miles away. A lot can happen in that amount of time. Fingers crossed that it dies out!
 
Please don't let it hit Louisiana, shooooo, go away!
 
Buzzm1 said:
repeating The 1100 Pm Ast Position...14.8 N...69.1 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 16 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...45
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb.
Click to expand...


RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...70.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

Five Day Cone
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025529.shtml?5day?large

Tracker
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java2/westatl.html
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES IN HIGHER
TERRAIN...ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ALSO...THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

InfraRed Satellite Loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

InfraRed Satellite Loop--Zoom In
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Five Day Cone
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025529.shtml?5day?large

Tracker
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java2/westatl.html
 
Ernesto aims at Jamaica, may hit Gulf

KINGSTON, Jamaica - Tropical Storm Ernesto gathered strength as it steamed through the central Caribbean toward Jamaica on Saturday and threatened to enter the Gulf of Mexico as the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season.

Ernesto could grow into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday, menacing a broad swath of the Gulf Coast including hurricane-ravaged New Orleans, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami forecast. Category 3 hurricane Katrina struck the city a year ago Tuesday.

"It looks likely that it will hit (the U.S.), but it's way too soon to say where" or how much impact it would have, said John Cangialosi, a meteorologist with the hurricane center. "At this point, keep a close eye, anyone in the Gulf Coast, and just keep monitoring this."

Standing in the hurricane's path, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba issued hurricane watches as the storm's winds grew to near 60 mph late Saturday. It was forecast to become a hurricane as early as Sunday evening while it passes near Jamaica, Cangialosi said.

Ernesto's course would bring it over Jamaica by Sunday afternoon, dumping 4 to 8 inches of rain on the island with up to a foot possible in some areas, the hurricane center said. Fisherman were warned to return to shore — with tides of up to 3 feet above normal expected.

Similar rainfall and tides were possible for Haiti.

Jamaica's Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller put the country's security forces on alert and said at a press conference Saturday that all the island's shelters were open.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/tropical...mmCbpwv;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
 
Tropical Storm Ernesto Gains Strength

KINGSTON, Jamaica (Aug. 26) - Gathering strength over the central Caribbean, Tropical Storm Ernesto steamed toward Jamaica Saturday and threatened to enter the Gulf of Mexico within days as the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season.

In Washington, the Department of Homeland Security said Ernesto could grow into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday and could menace New Orleans, ravaged by Category 3 Hurricane Katrina last year. Katrina struck the city a year ago Tuesday.

Ernesto "has the makings of becoming the first major storm of the season," said Homeland Security spokesman Russ Knocke.

Ernesto, packing 60 mph winds, could be near hurricane strength by Sunday. Still, it was too soon to predict whether it would hit the United States, said Michael Brennan, a meteorologist with the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"People should pay attention, especially people on the Gulf coast," Brennan said. "We're in the middle of hurricane season and it's a good time for people to update their hurricane plans."

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, which both stood in the storm's path, issued hurricane watches, meaning severe conditions including winds of at least 74 mph were possible over the next 48 hours. Cuba also issued a hurricane watch for provinces in the country's southeast.

http://articles.news.aol.com/news/_a/tropical-storm-ernesto-gains-strength/20060825080509990029
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

InfraRed Satellite Loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

InfraRed Satellite Loop--Zoom In
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Five Day Cone
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025529.shtml?5day?large

Tracker
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java2/westatl.html
 
Ernesto's Track Shifts Slightly Toward Florida Panhandle

rricane Center meteorologists have moved the path of Ernesto slightly to the northeast which brings it closer to the Florida Panhandle. However, they caution that long term forecasts often change so it's far too early to tell if the storm will make landfall anywhere near the Sunshine State.


In fact, forecasters say it is too soon to predict whether it would hit the United States.


At 5 p.m. EST Saturday, Ernesto had maximum sustained winds near 60 mph with higher gusts.


Jamaica, which stood straight in the storm's path, issued a tropical storm watch, and Haiti and the Dominican Republic issued tropical storms warnings for their southern coasts. Fears that the storm could damage offshore energy facilities in the Gulf of Mexico sent oil and natural-gas prices higher. Oil producers operating in the Gulf said they were prepared to evacuate nonessential personnel if needed.


"At this early stage, :eek: :eek: the message we want to send to people is not to panic :eek: :eek: but to watch it," said Jamie Rhome, a specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

http://www.wftv.com/weather/9732778/detail.html
 
I hate this!!! There is too much emotional stuff going on with me right now to have to deal with this, too. Pass the Xanax please.....
 
Tropical Storm Watch May Be Required For Portions Of The Florida
Keys Later Today.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
 
Looks like this is going to be one of those that they won't know where it is really doing until the last minute - thus, no time for evacuation....... I am really sick of this crap!
 
Remember that one a few years ago that raced back and forth the state?

I hope its not one of those.:(
 
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