Beyond Belief
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200708.html
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2007
the cloud pattern of the depression has changed very little sincethis morning with the circulation center estimated near the easternportion of the deep convection. Dvorak intensity estimatesfrom TAFB and SAB support 35 kt. Since there is some uncertaintyin the exact center location...the initial intensity will remain 30kt. The depression is currently passing about 60 nm south of NOAAbuoy 41041...which has reported a peak 1-minute wind of 28 kt and aminimum pressure of 1008.6 mb.
The initial motion estimate is 290/10. The track guidance is in goodagreement on a west-northwestward motion during the next couple ofdays. The ridge is expected to weaken as a mid-to upper-level lowdevelops several hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. This is expected to cause the depression to decelerate during thenext couple of days. The new track forecast remains close to theprevious advisory through 48 hours but is adjusted a littlenorthward thereafter...in close agreement with the consensus ofhwrf...GFDL...umket...and GFS models.
Most of the intensity guidance indicates that the easterly shearcurrently affecting the cyclone should weaken during the next 24hours and the guidance suggests that depression should graduallystrengthen. The GFDL...hwrf and SHIPS models bring the depressionto hurricane strength in about 72 hours. The official forecast willremain slightly below this guidance and keep the depressionjust below hurricane strength. At days 4 and 5...strongsouthwesterly upper-level winds south of the mid-to upper-level loware expected to produce increasing shear. The GFDL responds to thisby weakening the cyclone and the official forecast will reflect someweakening late in the period.http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200708.disc.html#a_topad
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2007
the cloud pattern of the depression has changed very little sincethis morning with the circulation center estimated near the easternportion of the deep convection. Dvorak intensity estimatesfrom TAFB and SAB support 35 kt. Since there is some uncertaintyin the exact center location...the initial intensity will remain 30kt. The depression is currently passing about 60 nm south of NOAAbuoy 41041...which has reported a peak 1-minute wind of 28 kt and aminimum pressure of 1008.6 mb.
The initial motion estimate is 290/10. The track guidance is in goodagreement on a west-northwestward motion during the next couple ofdays. The ridge is expected to weaken as a mid-to upper-level lowdevelops several hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. This is expected to cause the depression to decelerate during thenext couple of days. The new track forecast remains close to theprevious advisory through 48 hours but is adjusted a littlenorthward thereafter...in close agreement with the consensus ofhwrf...GFDL...umket...and GFS models.
Most of the intensity guidance indicates that the easterly shearcurrently affecting the cyclone should weaken during the next 24hours and the guidance suggests that depression should graduallystrengthen. The GFDL...hwrf and SHIPS models bring the depressionto hurricane strength in about 72 hours. The official forecast willremain slightly below this guidance and keep the depressionjust below hurricane strength. At days 4 and 5...strongsouthwesterly upper-level winds south of the mid-to upper-level loware expected to produce increasing shear. The GFDL responds to thisby weakening the cyclone and the official forecast will reflect someweakening late in the period.http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200708.disc.html#a_topad