Hurricane Irma

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What a difference 12 hours can make. GFS moved the landing further north from the midnight model to the noon model. I'm guessing this back and forth will continue until Tuesday/Wednesday.

13de36924c8ca8b31d7c755f87ef304a.jpg


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[video=twitter;904103880400789504]https://twitter.com/orlandosentinel/status/904103880400789504[/video]
 
There's a storm forming behind & south of Irma......keep eyes open folks
 
:seeya: Thinking of Florida! Watching with you!
 
American and Canadian models..... Aligned very well on location. Not so much on intensity. These models have not performed well on intensity in the past.

Noting charts so in a couple of days we can see how well they predict.

http://trackthetropics.com
4133c79b71d631907be34e780bcf6b2c.jpg
c515618b4df69c942ca5cd60cbcce619.jpg


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Henry, what does "Initialzed at 12z" mean? Is that the time of day the chart was run? I've seen multiple charts with differing z's, and was thinking if it was time, that I might be able to figure out more on these charts.

:tyou: all for posting the visuals! And yep, will be interesting if Euro/US/Canada pan out to be more correct as iirc the Euro model was right on target for Harvey.
 
Bently said:
Henry, what does "Initialzed at 12z" mean? Is that the time of day the chart was run? I've seen multiple charts with differing z's, and was thinking if it was time, that I might be able to figure out more on these charts.

:tyou: all for posting the visuals! And yep, will be interesting if Euro/US/Canada pan out to be more correct as iirc the Euro model was right on target for Harvey.
Click to expand...

12z, 0z, etc.- These are timing signals for models, essentially done in military time with 24 hours. The main model times are 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z, though most models come out at 0z and 12z. New data is taken officially every 12 hours, as 0z and 12z, which is why those are the two model runs with fresh data. The timing is actually that in London, where the first weather balloons were launched and timing needed to be standard across the globe for weather. Thus, 0z is midnight in England and 7 PM during winter in SW CT. 12z is noon in England, 7 AM here in SW CT. Models come out anywhere between 2 and 6 hours later than the timing in z shows they will, but the time stamp just shows what data was input.

https://swctweather.com/weather-glossary/
 
gregjrichards said:
12z, 0z, etc.- These are timing signals for models, essentially done in military time with 24 hours. The main model times are 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z, though most models come out at 0z and 12z. New data is taken officially every 12 hours, as 0z and 12z, which is why those are the two model runs with fresh data. /[/url]
Click to expand...

Yep....midnight and noon. 6:00 is not widely published until the big storms come along. [emoji3]

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I have been hiding from Irma!!

when they go N of Cuba not good at all
 
gregjrichards said:
12z, 0z, etc.- These are timing signals for models, essentially done in military time with 24 hours. The main model times are 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z, though most models come out at 0z and 12z. New data is taken officially every 12 hours, as 0z and 12z, which is why those are the two model runs with fresh data. The timing is actually that in London, where the first weather balloons were launched and timing needed to be standard across the globe for weather. Thus, 0z is midnight in England and 7 PM during winter in SW CT. 12z is noon in England, 7 AM here in SW CT. Models come out anywhere between 2 and 6 hours later than the timing in z shows they will, but the time stamp just shows what data was input.

https://swctweather.com/weather-glossary/
Click to expand...

Euro runs , have, for some time been considered the most reliable and accurate model!
 
Steering currents

if weak storm the lower altitude steering currents tend to be the driver when at her strength the higher level currents do the driving

way to far out but just we should get one saved it animates which is quite a mess!!


[FONT=&quot]The National Hurricane Center issues forecast advisories four times daily for each active Atlantic or eastern Pacific tropical depression, storm or hurricane. These are five-day forecasts for the center of circulation.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]It's usually a cone shape, instead of just a single line, because there is uncertainty in the track forecast that grows with time. For


s, the average error in a five-day forecast path of the center in 2016 was about 194 miles.

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]five-day track error is already almost 200 miles, imagine what a 10-plus-day track error would be.[/FONT]
[h=3]Brief Appetizer of Model Spaghetti

 "spaghetti models" and the pitfalls associated with them.

the the same forecast model is run with slightly different initial conditions in the atmosphere has become valuable for forecasters to determine, in our case, the uncertainty in Irma's future track.[/h]meteorologists don't analyze one particular run of one model, but look at an entire suite of current data – – learn each model's biases and, importantly, look for trends in those models over time.
All we can say right now is that the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast all need to monitor the progress of Irma.


There are some overall pattern clues for which meteorologists look to ascertain the overall threat to the East Coast from a hurricane approaching the area

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-us-forecast-challenge-1sep17
 
CARIIS said:
I agree and the water is really hot now

N Carolina??
Click to expand...
Yep....2 out 3 are NC. Just a slight movement in the high out in the Atlantic and we have a different result. Canadian it's the odd man out on this run with Florida although the other 2 are running it up the coast. Feels a bit like Matthew all over again.
a4e2230f4c5d9dd45145ec5287faa78e.jpg


http://spaghettimodels.com

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Henry, :tyou: for putting it all into one jpeg daily and/or 2x a day so I can send to those that are going to have to make travel plans around this storm next week! :blowkiss:
 
Bently said:
Henry, :tyou: for putting it all into one jpeg daily and/or 2x a day so I can send to those that are going to have to make travel plans around this storm next week! :blowkiss:
Click to expand...
Your welcome. [emoji3] Hurricanes are one of the few weather events that we can see coming in time to prepare.

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I'm supposed to go for the first vacation in almost 5 years...to the DR. Leaving this Friday...anyone have thoughts on if I should be canceling the trip? Irma whyyyyyyyyy


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Bently said:
Henry, :tyou: for putting it all into one jpeg daily and/or 2x a day so I can send to those that are going to have to make travel plans around this storm next week! :blowkiss:
Click to expand...

Send em to France then there safe!
 
Henry2326 said:
Yep....2 out 3 are NC. Just a slight movement in the high out in the Atlantic and we have a different result. Canadian it's the odd man out on this run with Florida although the other 2 are running it up the coast. Feels a bit like Matthew all over again.
a4e2230f4c5d9dd45145ec5287faa78e.jpg


http://spaghettimodels.com

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Click to expand...

and that is so bad cause she can scoot up all the while over all this warm water drinking its fuel

I have had stupid dreams of giant icebergs being dragged to right in front of a storm hopefully weakening them !!

Wherever she ends up it would be far better if she just slams into somewhere than cruising up the east coast.

She is gonna be a storm surge, wind, power loss monster.
 
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