AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 7

~n/t~ said:

I'd like to add Victoria Stafford to your list. Caught on camera walking away from school with one of her abductors. The accomplice waiting in the vehicle.

Her mom was considered a suspect but she was/is totally innocent.

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SilkySifaka said:

As far as I am concerned this just cements my view it is a kidnapping by an unknown person. (or maybe family friend, neighbor etc.).

They would not have released this unless they believed it is someone out there, in fact the BAU wouldn't have even flown in imo. They do telephone and fax consults all the time and if they believed it was an inside job the local LE could handle that with the local FBI agents in concert. No need for a whole team to fly in for that. This was due to LE and FBI's belief it was an outside job.

I have read enough of these profiles from reading the books by Robert Ressler and John Douglas/Mark Olshaker to know that this is very much how they profile an unsub not a parent.

THey cant clear the parents until someone else is arrested though because there is always a 1% chance they are wrong.

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SilkySifaka said:

As far as I am concerned this just cements my view it is a kidnapping by an unknown person. (or maybe family friend, neighbor etc.).

They would not have released this unless they believed it is someone out there, in fact the BAU wouldn't have even flown in imo. They do telephone and fax consults all the time and if they believed it was an inside job the local LE could handle that with the local FBI agents in concert. No need for a whole team to fly in for that. This was due to LE and FBI's belief it was an outside job.

I have read enough of these profiles from reading the books by Robert Ressler and John Douglas/Mark Olshaker to know that this is very much how they profile an unsub not a parent.

THey cant clear the parents until someone else is arrested though because there is always a 1% chance they are wrong.

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SmoothOperator said:

Isa'sInstill playing catch up but haven't yet seen mentioned that IMO atleast one positive we possibly have from Nancy tonight was that we certainly saw some corroborating evidence that the "uncle" was in the home.. atleast uncle was there when dad discovered Isa missing...did anyone else catch this?

It came up during segment with security store owner, Rick Moore and he states that the camera picked up the dadand the uncle emerging from the Celis home just minutes after 8am and appearing to quickly look around and then rush back into the home.. Jean Caserez. Stated that this sighting of dad and uncle emerging from the home just a few minutes after 8am is also corroborated by the neighborAlsiha in that she, too saw dad and uncle emerge from thehouse at that time..

It was speculated that this is immediately after dad entered Isa's room and discovered she was gone.. that he and the uncle rushed outside to quickly see if she was anywhere nearby and within moments of this they made the call to 911.. atleast that's how I understood it to be.

Don't know that this is of any relevancy to the case but I do know several have been questioning was the uncle or any other family inthe Celis home that Friday night/Saturday morning.and it certainly does appear the uncle was there butas for how long he'd been there or when he'd arrived is unknown..

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Melanie said:

Which brought to mind if LE had accounted for all the neighbors presence on that morning. I'm reminded of the Danielle Van Dam case where the neighbor (westerfield) entered the house and kidnapped/killed her.

LE went door to door and when he was nowhere to be found, they turned their sights on him.

Do we know if LE has the neighborhood accounted for and what everyone was doing (or if anything was out of charachter)?

Thanks,

Mel

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Patty G said:

Rick actually stated:

MOORE: You know, what we saw that morning -- again, it had been light for a little bit. What we basically saw, the first people we saw on the street -- we did see some activity in the alleyway right behind us. But the police have all that evidence.

What we saw right here was a couple of people walking up and down the street, Nancy. And we think that that was maybe the father and the brother. And then the police had us right at that moment cut off the digital recording, and they took that evidence and that`s when they took it away. So we think that that was just the father...

GRACE: ... is Isabel`s father and his brother, which would be Isabel`s uncle, walking around in front of the Celis home.

MOORE: Nancy, that`s conjecture on my part. I think that`s who it was. The police didn`t want us to speculate about who that was.

GRACE: OK, great. You earlier -- I get it.

MOORE: We didn`t know Isabel`s father at the time (INAUDIBLE)

GRACE: I get it, Rick. I get it that you don`t know who the people are. You earlier mentioned...

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1204/27/ng.01.html

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PAXIMUS said:

Well it is very common for an extended family member to step up to the plate in a situation like this and speak for the grieving parents who cant deal with the media at that time so I am not sure that makes him "hinky" ( I dont even know what hinky means) it may in fact make him quite helpful and concerned for the mom and dad who he knows cant talk at that time so he steps up and does it for them.

I know he looks a little different but I am trying hard not to let his clothing, jewelry and hat choices cloud my judgement because it is just ridiculous and irrational to do so, that said is there any real legitimate reason to suspect Mr Mastromarino other than the fact that he spoke in past tense (common mistake under pressure of lights and cameras with a microphone shoved in your face.)? Whats the story with the criminal record and drugs someone mentioned him being involved with?

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Shelby2 said:

Actually I believe that the Child Abduction Response Team (from the BAU)
DOES get involved in cases where an child is missing under mysterious circumstances OR an abduction is suspected-there are about 50 throughout the country who will very quickly establish an on-site command post. I'm pretty sure they are the ones who get involved, not the local FBI. However, I am not completely sure...

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Shelby2 said:

It would be interesting to see if the video showed the Uncle ARRIVE at the house that morning.

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Shelby2 said:

I think the Uncle lives in FL, or at least used to.

I am wondering why the dogs weren't barking that night-I don't think anything happened at 6:30 though when it was light out.

So this video states that 'sources tell us Isabel often slept with her siblings'-what sources?

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/missing-tucson-girl-fbi-steps-involvement-isabel-celis-16208983

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alwayslooking said:

These are the things to me (drugs) and being AZ, that make me suspect someone from Mexico! Sadly you don't want to mess with someones drugs or money...they can get up close very quick! As I posted earlier could be wrong house, wrong child! I pray noone in that house was involved with any drug deals south of the border, it can be a costly mistake! I am sure LE is looking at this possibility!:banghead:

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Patty G said:

Someone called into Nancy last night and asked the question about Isa sleeping with her brothers.

Nancy is the ONLY one that has every stated this, and here is what was stated:

GRACE: We are taking your calls. Vicki, Arizona. What`s your question, dear?

VICKI, CALLER, ARIZONA: First of all, Nancy, I`d like to say thank you and God bless you for all that you do for the victims out there.

GRACE: Thank you.

VICKI: I have to say this that Isabel usually slept with her brothers.

GRACE: Right.

VICKI: Do we know why she didn`t that evening? And also, have the brothers been questioned?

GRACE: The brothers have been questioned. To my understanding. Natisha Lance, what do we know about the sleeping arrangement?

NATISHA LANCE, NANCY GRACE`s PRODUCER: There is that report out there, Nancy. That Isabel would usually sleep with her siblings. And we don`t know the reason why she was in her own room this particular night. Yes, as you just stated, the brothers have been questioned by police.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1204/27/ng.01.html

My thoughts: What report? That statement made no sense at all!

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SurfieTX said:

What's interesting to me is that the FBI came in from 2 locations - Los Angeles and Virginia.

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SurfieTX said:

What's interesting to me is that the FBI came in from 2 locations - Los Angeles and Virginia.

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SilkySifaka said:

Yes exactly! This is the big time team, when they go to AZ from Virginia and also LA.

Most cases get FBI support and most states and major cities have field offices and specialist teams too. Or at least those who have taken the courses at Quantico and can put up a good profile without flying a team in. These guys are professionals in the state and local offices, more than capable of handling what looks like a parental murder with the off chance that it was something else.

In this case they are obviously treating it as someone else withe the off chance it was parental. Releasing the profile is a big step because it tells people there might be a child kidnapper which places their own children in danger as well. Panic can erupt and LE doesn't like panic, Mayors even less.

IMO Tucson has a problem because this guy won't settle for just Isa. In a couple of months or a year it will be another he goes after..perhaps more under the radar, someone from a less stable environment where parents are assumed to be the culprits and the search is less intense for an outsider.

I will eat crow if I am wrong

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