April 29 weekend of Sleuthiness

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FWIW, I can never get a complete answer to an entire alternate theory. As soon as a question pops up, we go back to someone else lying on the stand. Or what a heinous individual BZ must be. Or something that was eaten. Or not eaten. Or ducks. Or Facebook. At this point, the best I can work out from the SODDI folks is that JP did it to avoid child support although there seem to be no DNA test results in existence to support this - he either met her at Java Jive where she brought a child to prove its existence, or he abducted her into a van when no one was looking and made a beeline for Fielding. JA covered for him because she was mad at NC for having a friend who had the same name as her own husband and didn't get invited to the same party.

This posts a little to snarkery, but I'll bite.

The defense (and most of us) are not presenting an alternate theory.

The alternate theory is that there WERE alternate theories. No one is claiming to know the truth but the BDI folks.

We have a problem with the state's version of BDI because:

1) Brad had means (Well, yes, he had hands) Brad had motive (okay, he was getting divorced, and gonna be out a lot of money) Brad had opportunity (if you can tell me the REAL timeline, which has about six versions going here from all sides, I will try and narrow down what the state is saying. I'm going to pluck 1:30-2:00 am out of the air for a moment.

2) The CPD has been proven to have a lot of contradictory stuff going on. Depending on where you stand: A) It's a series of unfortunate and honest mistakes that would be caused in the course of any investigation or B) it's a series of events that resulted from hearsay, gossip, tunnel vision and the inability to aptly investigate a crime that went from missing person to homicide, coupled with a complete lack of understanding of the importance of the technological aspects of that investigation until some key pieces of evidence were potentially invalidated and made "unpristine" (to quote BZ) and thereafter inadmissible.

3) BZ is not a terrible person or whatever. He's a dishonest prosecutor. His boss will see it in the live feed. He has said (on what I count as four different occasions) things that he then contradicts with his efforts at cross examination to a sitting Wake County Superior Court Judge that is less than interested in furthering his own understanding of various aspects of technology that are pertinent to this case. Leaving these things unexplained is bad. Directly misleading a judge on a live feed for a home audience is inept and possible career crippling.

4) Kurtz and Trenkle don't KNOW what they are trying to say with the alternate theory because the prosecution and the CPD made a very big muddy mess of the actual evidence and the following theories have been floated:

1) Someone did it to NC because of a paternity/child support privacy issue.
2) A woman (or women) familiar with NC did it for jealousy or other reasons unknown.
3) It was a random act. (Shot down frequently here, but it COULD have happened)

These are separate and clear cut theories that are supported by the general framework, but TWO of them would have required the cell phone of NC to be proven.

5) The gossip and hearsay angle muddying this case has become a very large portion of the alternative theories game we play. Why? Because the friends (per Mr. HC) look like lying liars who lied.

6) Some of the "important" lies we fought about early in the case and some of the issues we batted around included: The ducks and sticks, the color of the dress and possible obfuscation by BC, the necklace, the lack of money. Then we see NC on her next to last day in a store (with money) in a black dress (the color of what BC remembered) without the necklace (she never took off).

7) The google search. I think this is a piece of evidence that some consider to be THE smoking gun. I think it's hogwash. I think it's too convenient, too precise and bunk. Why? Well, you tell me why it took so long to find it and whatever other information is around it and I'll tell you why. Until they do, I beg off. It's irrelevant in my idea of keeping the trial fair because the defense should be allowed to kick it.

8) The router info from Cisco. Another item they have had YEARS to come up with and MONTHS under court order. It just conveniently appears...it's not helping me. Couple it with #7 and I go...no way.

9) The video depositions. Seriously? Let's assume for an instance that AS did not consult with the Cary PD to get an impromptu homicide interrogation going. What is the point of the custody mess being brought into this?

10) The cleaning charades. This is all bunk. The prosecution played a polite but firmly infuriated voicemail of the VICTIM in this case pointedly discussing her anger at the state of her house's cleanliness. And yet...we question why a man was cleaning. I'm sure she just blew that off and said nothing to Brad. Riiight. She tore him a new one. She said: I'm calling the realtor and I'm leaving today because I can't live in this FILFTH any more.

If it weren't for JA and DD, this might have been a slam dunk, but going and saying: Oh, no. I WILL TALK TO THE POLICE. NOT YOU! Doesn't that raise your flag a bit?

This, coupled with a phone call to local police, after a friend is missing for only a few hours places her firmly in the top of my lists of things the CPD missed. Why call the non-emergency line at 2:00 on a Saturday when your "plans" are suspect?

So, to clearly and concisely answer your question about the alternative theory: Take your pick. This mess (courtesy of this mess) is a free-for-all that only makes sense if you subscribe to the often true, but daring to be disproved theory: The Husband did it. Because eventually, that theory is going to start to be discounted because it will become the framework for getting away with murder (just make sure to make it look like the husband did it, right?)

Also, the behavior from most of the pros witnesses regarding the NC and BC interaction is the biggest part of this mess. Were they in need of Interact's intervention? If so, why just the two folks going after that? Where did all these "bad feelings'" come from other than from the weird state of things? I don't think "bad feelings" count when you are trying to get a good measure on the items listed above.

But I know this....I hope to whoever is upstairs that the GJ stops indicting based on anyone's "bad feelings" because we are ALL in trouble at that point.
 
He said she could have died as early as 11AM Friday, yes. State got him to say it could have been btwn 1-6AM., but on cross the ME admitted TOD could have been as late as 11AM Saturday, not much reliability either way. That is the reason this evidence was not a smoking gun.

The CPD did a poor job preserving the specimens for the bug forensics, or there could have been more precise data. At the time of the evaluation, a full 2 weeks later, there were not many bugs left to work with.

IIRC, he said one test method showed it could have been as late at 11am on Saturday, the 12th. He also stated that since that time didn't match what LE had told him he used a couple of different methods.
I got the link for LyLoo earlier, I think I'll go back and re-listen to his testimony.
 
I'm here, and I think Brad is guilty, guilty, guilty. I know the feeling though.

I am here also! In fact, I have been here every day and also watched all of the trial footage.

It is my opinion that BC is indeed guilty and will be found guilty. I learned a long time ago that I should not post when feeling angry so I have actually posted very little.

I follow this case with tremendous interest and will continue to do so until the verdict comes in. I just refuse to argue and also try to keep my posts within TOS. I just scroll by the posts I don't agree with. I will celebrate when this trial is over once and for all!

*Mostly just using your post, gracielee, to put my final opinion out there!

MOO's!
 
My intention wasn't to twist words as much as it was to show what a mash-up all the theorizing produces. For example, 5 people have 5 diff theories, and they each use bits and pieces of all of them to argue against one pretty cohesive theory that BC is guilty.

I agree that theories are being thrown out, and we all see what we want to see, depending on which side of the fence we're on. I don't believe BC to be guilty (I did at the beginning of the trial). What it boils down to, at least in my simple mind, is that there is no evidence that she was ever in the trunk of BC's car and the width of the tire tracks near the body do not match BC's vehicle (or NC's). That, and no evidence of a "struggle" in the house (now that we know the ducks were in a box). :banghead:

Perhaps I'm a true-crime/CSI junkie, but why didn't LE use the width of the tire tracks at the dump scene to determine what possible vehicles could have left said tracks?
The other issue that I have trouble with... if there was blood under her fingernails, as we heard in testimony, then why didn't BC have scratches or gouges on his arm? Did any of the "other suspects" in this case? Did anyone ever check?

MOO
 
This posts a little to snarkery, but I'll bite.

The defense (and most of us) are not presenting an alternate theory.

The alternate theory is that there WERE alternate theories. No one is claiming to know the truth but the BDI folks.

We have a problem with the state's version of BDI because:

1) Brad had means (Well, yes, he had hands) Brad had motive (okay, he was getting divorced, and gonna be out a lot of money) Brad had opportunity (if you can tell me the REAL timeline, which has about six versions going here from all sides, I will try and narrow down what the state is saying. I'm going to pluck 1:30-2:00 am out of the air for a moment.

2) The CPD has been proven to have a lot of contradictory stuff going on. Depending on where you stand: A) It's a series of unfortunate and honest mistakes that would be caused in the course of any investigation or B) it's a series of events that resulted from hearsay, gossip, tunnel vision and the inability to aptly investigate a crime that went from missing person to homicide, coupled with a complete lack of understanding of the importance of the technological aspects of that investigation until some key pieces of evidence were potentially invalidated and made "unpristine" (to quote BZ) and thereafter inadmissible.

3) BZ is not a terrible person or whatever. He's a dishonest prosecutor. His boss will see it in the live feed. He has said (on what I count as four different occasions) things that he then contradicts with his efforts at cross examination to a sitting Wake County Superior Court Judge that is less than interested in furthering his own understanding of various aspects of technology that are pertinent to this case. Leaving these things unexplained is bad. Directly misleading a judge on a live feed for a home audience is inept and possible career crippling.

4) Kurtz and Trenkle don't KNOW what they are trying to say with the alternate theory because the prosecution and the CPD made a very big muddy mess of the actual evidence and the following theories have been floated:

1) Someone did it to NC because of a paternity/child support privacy issue.
2) A woman (or women) familiar with NC did it for jealousy or other reasons unknown.
3) It was a random act. (Shot down frequently here, but it COULD have happened)

These are separate and clear cut theories that are supported by the general framework, but TWO of them would have required the cell phone of NC to be proven.

5) The gossip and hearsay angle muddying this case has become a very large portion of the alternative theories game we play. Why? Because the friends (per Mr. HC) look like lying liars who lied.

6) Some of the "important" lies we fought about early in the case and some of the issues we batted around included: The ducks and sticks, the color of the dress and possible obfuscation by BC, the necklace, the lack of money. Then we see NC on her next to last day in a store (with money) in a black dress (the color of what BC remembered) without the necklace (she never took off).

7) The google search. I think this is a piece of evidence that some consider to be THE smoking gun. I think it's hogwash. I think it's too convenient, too precise and bunk. Why? Well, you tell me why it took so long to find it and whatever other information is around it and I'll tell you why. Until they do, I beg off. It's irrelevant in my idea of keeping the trial fair because the defense should be allowed to kick it.

8) The router info from Cisco. Another item they have had YEARS to come up with and MONTHS under court order. It just conveniently appears...it's not helping me. Couple it with #7 and I go...no way.

9) The video depositions. Seriously? Let's assume for an instance that AS did not consult with the Cary PD to get an impromptu homicide interrogation going. What is the point of the custody mess being brought into this?

10) The cleaning charades. This is all bunk. The prosecution played a polite but firmly infuriated voicemail of the VICTIM in this case pointedly discussing her anger at the state of her house's cleanliness. And yet...we question why a man was cleaning. I'm sure she just blew that off and said nothing to Brad. Riiight. She tore him a new one. She said: I'm calling the realtor and I'm leaving today because I can't live in this FILFTH any more.

If it weren't for JA and DD, this might have been a slam dunk, but going and saying: Oh, no. I WILL TALK TO THE POLICE. NOT YOU! Doesn't that raise your flag a bit?

This, coupled with a phone call to local police, after a friend is missing for only a few hours places her firmly in the top of my lists of things the CPD missed. Why call the non-emergency line at 2:00 on a Saturday when your "plans" are suspect?

So, to clearly and concisely answer your question about the alternative theory: Take your pick. This mess (courtesy of this mess) is a free-for-all that only makes sense if you subscribe to the often true, but daring to be disproved theory: The Husband did it. Because eventually, that theory is going to start to be discounted because it will become the framework for getting away with murder (just make sure to make it look like the husband did it, right?)

Also, the behavior from most of the pros witnesses regarding the NC and BC interaction is the biggest part of this mess. Were they in need of Interact's intervention? If so, why just the two folks going after that? Where did all these "bad feelings'" come from other than from the weird state of things? I don't think "bad feelings" count when you are trying to get a good measure on the items listed above.

But I know this....I hope to whoever is upstairs that the GJ stops indicting based on anyone's "bad feelings" because we are ALL in trouble at that point.

Okay, this possibly helps a bit. I'm trying to look at what folks on the other side of the fence think, and it's all very problematic once you get beyond a basic theory. I do realize there is no evidence, as no one else is on trial and having evidence presented. But if you honestly believe JA did it, or believe JP did it, wouldn't you have to work through a complete and valid theory based on what IS known? Things that include real motive and real gain and real opportunity, if you're going to argue that that's what you believe? I mean, I could say I thought HM did it and come up with random things to support it - but at the end of the day, that's all it is. Random things to support an abstract. There is no giant red flashing arrow pointing at anyone but BC.
 
Okay, this possibly helps a bit. I'm trying to look at what folks on the other side of the fence think, and it's all very problematic once you get beyond a basic theory. I do realize there is no evidence, as no one else is on trial and having evidence presented. But if you honestly believe JA did it, or believe JP did it, wouldn't you have to work through a complete and valid theory based on what IS known? Things that include real motive and real gain and real opportunity, if you're going to argue that that's what you believe? I mean, I could say I thought HM did it and come up with random things to support it - but at the end of the day, that's all it is. Random things to support an abstract. There is no giant red flashing arrow pointing at anyone but BC.

Going by the logic, I don't understand why MH isn't thrown into the possible suspect list. He did try and cast suspicion on others and he did come up with some "detailed" theory trying to implicate someone on the running trail. He also seemed rather "obsessed" with the autopsy.
 
In regard to simulating a call over 22 seconds there is testimony that implies it can be done using some of the more complex methods but there are no other distinct lengths of time mentioned.

All the methods described that could be longer than 22 seconds require either using a modem, being connected via telnet or something similar, using an additional server which would need to have network connectivity to the router, or using the cell phone to dial out

PG's testimony regarding call initiation
http://www.wral.com/specialreports/nancycooper/video/9400124/#/vid9400124
 
Okay, this possibly helps a bit. I'm trying to look at what folks on the other side of the fence think, and it's all very problematic once you get beyond a basic theory. I do realize there is no evidence, as no one else is on trial and having evidence presented. But if you honestly believe JA did it, or believe JP did it, wouldn't you have to work through a complete and valid theory based on what IS known? Things that include real motive and real gain and real opportunity, if you're going to argue that that's what you believe? I mean, I could say I thought HM did it and come up with random things to support it - but at the end of the day, that's all it is. Random things to support an abstract. There is no giant red flashing arrow pointing at anyone but BC.

BBM: I think that's the problem with us fencers/BADIs. We derive part of what's going on from the lack of certain pieces of information on both sides: Nancy's Cell phones media data and the physical verbage from the texts are unknown, as is nearly all of her text activity.

Had a more open investigation (without DD and JA and whoever else popping up on radars saying: DIDYOUPROVEITYET? DIDYOUPROVEITYET? DIDYOUPROVEBRADDONEGONEANDDONEITYET?) evolved and the path been a little clearer, we might all know that BC did it, no question. JA did it, no question. JP or SH or DD or whomever done it, no question.

ETA: There is no giant red flashing arrow pointing at BC except the one that certain witnesses and investigators have on their hats when they are looking at him. In fact, that isn't a one. It's ten tiny red arrows that flash.
 
Going by the logic, I don't understand why MH isn't thrown into the possible suspect list. He did try and cast suspicion on others and he did come up with some "detailed" theory trying to implicate someone on the running trail. He also seemed rather "obsessed" with the autopsy.

I have a few others on my list. Was just trying to leave out the ones who are obviously reading.
 
BBM: I think that's the problem with us fencers/BADIs. We derive part of what's going on from the lack of certain pieces of information on both sides: Nancy's Cell phones media data and the physical verbage from the texts are unknown, as is nearly all of her text activity.

Had a more open investigation (without DD and JA and whoever else popping up on radars saying: DIDYOUPROVEITYET? DIDYOUPROVEITYET? DIDYOUPROVEBRADDONEGONEANDDONEITYET?) evolved and the path been a little clearer, we might all know that BC did it, no question. JA did it, no question. JP or SH or DD or whomever done it, no question.

And is that common, in murder investigations, for the investigating unit (whoever they might be) to release such particulars as they occur? Who they've ruled out and why? And what they did to rule them out? I don't recall ever reading info like this about a case unless someone was a suspect.

Obviously if someone has been ruled out very early on, they're not a suspect. JA was in her house in the bed with her husband at 8 am, so it's hard for me to see CPD making a big announcement that they'd done an in-depth investigation to rule her out.
 
I have a few others on my list. Was just trying to leave out the ones who are obviously reading.

Oh just to be clear, I do not think MH had anything to do with it. I also don't think JA or JP or any other initials besides BC had anything to do with it. To believe BC is innocent involves ignoring too many things and I just can't do that. MOO
 
And is that common, in murder investigations, for the investigating unit (whoever they might be) to release such particulars as they occur? Who they've ruled out and why? And what they did to rule them out? I don't recall ever reading info like this about a case unless someone was a suspect.

Obviously if someone has been ruled out very early on, they're not a suspect. JA was in her house in the bed with her husband at 8 am, so it's hard for me to see CPD making a big announcement that they'd done an in-depth investigation to rule her out.

My thing about JA's involvement--if she participated in any way why did she make the early phone call to LE to report her missing? That's doesn't make sense.
 
I'm (painfully) listening to Cummings on his direct with Dr. Butts. I can easily see how Dr. Butts was straining to understand the winding and incoherent questioning by Cummings.
 
Lets just say he is probably smarter than anyone on this forum...JMO

Probably not smarter than anyone on this forum, or even on his street in Cary. Really smart people are the norm around here. Think back to their friends and neighbors that you saw testify. They seemed a very smart group.

So are many of those posting at MS.

BTW When you get 2-3 SDs out, the reliability of the instruments makes itunreliable for comparatives among the top 1%/
 
My thing about JA's involvement--if she participated in any way why did she make the early phone call to LE to report her missing? That's doesn't make sense.

It makes perfect sense. She give the painting story to the police, points the finger at BC and looks like the saintly BFF.
 
Probably not smarter than anyone on this forum, or even on his street in Cary. Really smart people are the norm around here. Think back to their friends and neighbors that you saw testify. They seemed a very smart group.

So are many of those posting at MS.

BTW When you get 2-3 SDs out, the reliability of the instruments makes itunreliable for comparatives among the top 1%/

What is MS?
 
Has there been any testimony or records indicating how many people Brad called that day "looking" for Nancy?
 
Oh just to be clear, I do not think MH had anything to do with it. I also don't think JA or JP or any other initials besides BC had anything to do with it. To believe BC is innocent involves ignoring too many things and I just can't do that. MOO

I did not name anyone in that initial post because I don't subscribe to the exact same alternate theories as the majority. I think about three to four other posters and I feel as if we've had a good grasp on a plausible one (although, we admittedly might swing our feet in the guilty pool with the right temperature, as we are mainly set in fairness and evidence, not CSI/LO like tv conclusions)

I also wasn't looking to do anything but present Bottle Cap with some of what I thought might answer her post, were she serious in seeking said information.

I was reading a very long and engaging, but sometimes too wordy article this weekend on circumstantial evidence versus direct evidence and while some of us have posted the definitions on this board, the article (by a retired prosecutor) made some excellent points on how the circumstantial evidence has to be weighed a very particular way. As in, does it point directly to the murder, involvement in the murder or does it point to a behavior that is more or less suspect of the murder.

Basically, it dissected a much older and much debated case in a way that would make a good deal of what we are seeing in this case CE of the potential dissolution of the marriage, but not CE of the murder. It got me back to going round and round on this one again.

Specifically, they were discussing the body of the victim as the key element and how it is simply evidence OF HOMICIDE, not of ______ 's COMMISSION of said homicide, but it is frequently on the CE list for folks.
 
Oh just to be clear, I do not think MH had anything to do with it. I also don't think JA or JP or any other initials besides BC had anything to do with it. To believe BC is innocent involves ignoring too many things and I just can't do that. MOO

IMHO, to believe that BC is guilty involves ignoring too many things and I just can't do that either.
The only physical evidence in this case is the tire tracks near her body, and they don't match a vehicle that BC had access to. MOO
 
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