2020 Hurricane Season Starting Early, "High Activity" Expected This Year

[MimosaMornings]

What was so important that they needed to go out an inlet, with an incoming storm that was known to have 3-4’ surge, in a 20’ boat?!?! I’m baffled.

Cristobal brings flooding along Gulf Coast, Coast Guard searching for 2 missing boaters

The Coast Guard said in a news release that Ted Roach and Jennifer Lingoni left Salt Bayou near Slidell, La., at 1 p.m. Sunday on a 20-foot yellow skiff and were scheduled to be back at approximately 1:30 p.m.

Oh geez, what was so important they had to go out for 30 minutes? Pull up crab traps?
Wouldn’t there have been small craft warnings?
Of course I’m amazed when people are surprised that it’s flooding - um, they’ve been talking about a tropical storm for several days now.

 

[Lato]

WDSU news team......two boaters are found...!
Looking for a news article to tell the story.....
wdsu.com

 

[Gardener1850]

What was so important that they needed to go out an inlet, with an incoming storm that was known to have 3-4’ surge, in a 20’ boat?!?! I’m baffled.

Cristobal brings flooding along Gulf Coast, Coast Guard searching for 2 missing boaters

The Coast Guard said in a news release that Ted Roach and Jennifer Lingoni left Salt Bayou near Slidell, La., at 1 p.m. Sunday on a 20-foot yellow skiff and were scheduled to be back at approximately 1:30 p.m.

The boaters were found safe this afternoon:

Roach and Lingoni told deputies their boat sunk in the Rigolets Sunday afternoon and they spent Sunday afternoon and Sunday night clinging to one life jacket before they made it to shore at Goose Point sometime Monday morning.

They then swam across a marsh area and sought refuge at the camp until they were located.

UPDATE: Missing Slidell boaters found safe in Bayou Lacombe

Sounds like a miracle that they survived.

MOO

 

[PayrollNerd]

Christobol has worn out his welcome. He needs to fizzle!!

Cristobal moves inland, but the flooding threat is far from over
Tropical Depression Cristobal moves inland, but the flooding threat is far from over - CNN

 

[anneg]

NOAA shows no likely areas of tropical storm development in the next 5 days. After that...?

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

 

[PayrollNerd]

Ok the tropics and Gulf are warming up. Maybe a good soaker to bring up the south’s water tables.

Tropical Tidbits

A broad low will track near or just off the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coastlines through Friday, and will likely organize into a storm capable of causing flash flooding, high surf, and gusty winds. NHC gives a 70% chance of this storm becoming subtropical or tropical. Regardless of whether NHC names the storm, flooding will be the primary hazard. Consult your local NWS office at weather.gov for local details as the system develops.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Flhurricane.com

The area (98L) about to exit the coast of South Carolina has a 70% chance to develop over the next 5 days, those along the NC/DelMarVa and the NE coasts could see rough conditions if this develops.
Recon may fly into this system late this afternoon.

800 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure is located along the coast of northeastern South Carolina. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then
turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the low
is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

[PayrollNerd]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/09/tropical-storm-fay-northeast/

A tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form offshore of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the workweek, bringing heavy rain and localized flooding from the Delmarva Peninsula into the Northeast. Up to four to six inches of rain may fall in some areas and the storm could spawn a few tornadoes and waterspouts.

It’s a race against time to see if this weather system — currently a disheveled axis of spin centered just offshore of eastern North Carolina — will have a chance to develop over the warm waters banked up against the Carolina coast. Sea surface temperatures west of the Gulf Stream have been unusually warm for this point in the season, an ingredient meteorologists fear could bolster cyclone strength this season.

If the system manages to develop before potentially moving inland over New Jersey or the Delmarva Peninsula on Friday, it could earn the name “Fay” as a tropical or subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center estimates an 80 percent likelihood of development.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Stay safe. Don’t go to the beach to surf or watch the waves. Rogue waves are a real thing!

Flhurricane.com

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound for newly formed Tropical Storm Fay, the 6th named storm of 2020, and not even midway through July.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.
Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Wet weekend ahead. Stay safe!

Tropical storm Fay bears down on mid-Atlantic, New England

 

[Wild Rose]

Predictions of 5" of rain for NJ. Hoping the soft ground absorbs it.....that is a deluge coming.

 

[JerseyGirl]

I dont' remember Tropical Storms this early in the season up here, usually they crop up in August.

https://shoredailynews.com/sdn-live...en-Shot-2020-07-09-at-9.56.25-PM-1280x640.png

Wet weekend ahead. Stay safe!

Tropical storm Fay bears down on mid-Atlantic, New England

Heavy rain today into tomorrow morning along the Jersey coast here. Going back to hot, humid and sunny by late afternoon tomorrow into Sunday.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Well of course, it is 2020 after all. Lord have mercy. I hope the surfers and swimmers are not caught off guard.

It will be the third storm to hit the U.S. in 2020 and the record sixth system named so far this year.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for New York as Fay Looms

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the U.S. coast from New Jersey to Rhode Island, including New York, as Fay heads north with winds of 45 miles (72 kilometers) per hour. They are the first such bulletins issued since Superstorm Sandy struck the New Jersey coast in 2012, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist with Yale Climate Connections.

The storm was about 105 miles south of Ocean City, Maryland, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 2 a.m. New York time Friday. It should clip New Jersey midday Friday before powering up the coast for New York and Long Island Saturday and weakening over Vermont.

It will be the third storm to hit the U.S. in 2020 and the record sixth system named so far this year.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Well of course, it is 2020 after all. Lord have mercy. I hope the surfers and swimmers are not caught off guard.

It will be the third storm to hit the U.S. in 2020 and the record sixth system named so far this year.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for New York as Fay Looms

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the U.S. coast from New Jersey to Rhode Island, including New York, as Fay heads north with winds of 45 miles (72 kilometers) per hour. They are the first such bulletins issued since Superstorm Sandy struck the New Jersey coast in 2012, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist with Yale Climate Connections.

The storm was about 105 miles south of Ocean City, Maryland, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 2 a.m. New York time Friday. It should clip New Jersey midday Friday before powering up the coast for New York and Long Island Saturday and weakening over Vermont.

It will be the third storm to hit the U.S. in 2020 and the record sixth system named so far this year.

We are up to "F" (6) on the list and hurricane season only started 5 weeks ago!

 

[PayrollNerd]

Well, it is summer in the south....

TD7 Forms in Central Atlantic; Invest 91L Enters Gulf of Mexico

Tuesday evening video discussion on newly-formed Tropical Depression Seven in the central Atlantic and Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico:

 

[PayrollNerd]

Flhurricane.com

Tropical Depression Seven forms from 99L east of the Caribbean, those in the Windward islands should keep watch into the weekend. The cyclone is small in size, and as a result it could change intensity - both up and down - faster than what is currently forecast, which right now keeps it at tropical storm strength. It could peak as it nears the islands, but conditions become much less favorable Sunday into next week.

91L in the Gulf has a 30% chance for development over the next 5 days. And to the east of TD#7 another wave may be worth watching later this week into next.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Hoping it stays weak so the islands are spared any damage.

Central Florida Hurricane Center 2020 - 25 Years Tracking Storms

5PM Update 21 July 2020
Invest 99L is now Tropical Depression Seven, it is forecast to remain below hurricane strength, however it's small size means it could rapidly strengthen or weaken over the next few days, so those in the Windwards should keep watch on it.

91L remains in the Gulf, and has a better shot on Thursday to develop, but still remains relatively low. Another wave east of TD#7 will be the next thing to watch, and also a very small area north of Puerto Rico.

 

[PayrollNerd]

See that green line? That is the path of the research vessel my oldest is on..... This weather is going to make it so much harder on them.

 

[JerseyGirl]

U.S. Disaster Response Scrambles To Protect People From Both Hurricanes And COVID-19

With peak hurricane season yet to come, southeast communities are grappling with uncertainty over whether it's possible to evacuate to shelters without risking coronavirus exposure.

A powerful storm could uproot tens of thousands of people at a time when coronavirus infections and deaths from COVID-19 are soaring through the region. Congregate shelters, from school gyms to vast convention centers, risk becoming infection hot spots if evacuees pack into them.

Shelters are managed by the American Red Cross under the supervision of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. But the Red Cross intends to adhere to new guidelines based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's social distancing standards, which could cut shelter capacity by as much as 60%.

The United States' patchwork disaster response programs — led by localities and financially backed by FEMA — might not be enough to protect people against both hurricanes and the coronavirus, according to interviews with more than two dozen emergency management officials and experts.

 

[PayrollNerd]

The letter G and it is still July.....

Flhurricane.com

Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed from TD#7, moving west toward the Windward islands, and is now forecast to become a hurricane. As noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward, so how much it happens.

Folks in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

The area 91L in the Gulf is now up to a 50/50 shot of Development, and those in the Northwestern Gulf should monitor the progress of that.

800 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Seven, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, central and southern Florida, and western Cuba. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days. This
disturbance is expected to move over the central Gulf today, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.