Abby & Libby - The Delphi Murders - Richard Allen Arrested - #185

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It's written by a government agency. If you dispute its accuracy, take it up with the National Institute of Health.

I posted the research so that @grannygates and others could read it for themselves, rather than take another's opinion piece on it as truth.
I do not dispute its accuracy. Thanks for the link.
 
If you’re unlucky enough to get the worst guy in that massive study, it goes from 99 to 1 down to more like 70 to 30, yes.

It’s 172 to 1 you get him.

But the poorest performers are included in the 99 to 1. Throw them out and you get something that looks more like 100 to 0.

Are blood types useful? A murderer leaves a type A bloodstain. I’m accused, but I’m type B. Hordes of type Bs are around everywhere. Is the test no good? Or am I exonerated? It’s the latter.

If RA got the worst forensic tester, he’s still unlucky, just less spectacularly so.
There’s a graph in the study that shows all the false results per bullet and cartridge comparisons. The number for each is in the 20s.
 
From your link:

“Figure 2 also illustrates poor performance by a few examiners. The worst performers in each comparison set category declared: 4 of 18 (22%) and 4 of 22 (18%) nonmatching bullet sets to be Identifications; 3 of 11 (27%) and 3 of 20 (15%) of nonmatching cartridge case sets to be Identifications; 4 of 9 (44%) and 4 of 11 (36%) of matching bullet sets to be Eliminations; and 2 of 3 (67%) of matching cartridge case sets to be Eliminations.”

The issue for me is that the results are only as good as the human IMO
This is an important point in my opinion, and why I look forward to hearing whatever expert witness the prosecution calls regarding the forensics. The science is a subjective one, so the results are only as good as the expert, as you point out.
 
So the $41k raised by DH the administrator has been paid to DH already, good to know.

JMO

And I as the public, citizen of the USA, advocate for Libby and Abby wish to know exactly what these funds are being used for. The hashtag used to solicit these funds stated justice for Libby and Abby. Abby and Libby's life mattered. No one had the right to end their life.

Billable hours, expert witnesses, Youtube stars! Would I be correct in thinking there is 41K available to an expert that will testify? Will the 41K be used for shopping for an expert witness? Could this 41K be available to Youtube creators that present a podcast seeking an expert witness? Why would the defense not be able to invoice the cost to present an expert witness at trial? As an accountant I would assume the expense of seeking this expert witness would be billed as normal billable hours.

Is it my opinion or would it be fact that Libby and Abby were terrified, humiliated and murdered? Advocating justice for Libby and Abby is monitoring this trial, and getting an accused to trial for a jury to hear evidence. Allowing the prosecutor to provide evidence against the accused at trial.

My desire would be to attend this trial and get the honest truth out to the public, the truth.
 
If you’re unlucky enough to get the worst guy in that massive study, it goes from 99 to 1 down to more like 70 to 30, yes.

It’s 172 to 1 you get someone other than him.

But the poorest performers are included in the 99 to 1. Throw them out and you get something that looks more like 100 to 0.

Are blood types useful? A murderer leaves a type A bloodstain. I’m accused, but I’m type B. Hordes of type Bs are around everywhere. Is the test no good? Or am I exonerated? It’s the latter.

If RA got the worst forensic tester, he’s still unlucky, just less spectacularly so.
Yes and I have no doubt they had the best ballistic examiners on this case. JMO
 
My desire would be to attend this trial and get the honest truth out to the public, the truth.

Wouldn't we all. Unfortunately, the CC courtroom is so tiny barely anyone will be able to do so. Too bad there's not some other method that would allow the citizens of the USA to watch the trial.

IMO MOO
 
My snag is how can the FBI think 6 foot RL is BG and LE think 5’4” RA is BG and neither of them match the sketch nor the actual descriptive features of the man on the bridge other than they wear jeans and jackets.

I know that we all looked hard at that photo on the bridge early on and one aspect we all noticed and discussed at length was how baggy BG’s clothes were. We theorized that his baggy upper body clothes were to carry and hide weapons etc., but we never could come up with an explanation as to why his pants were so baggy.
Until RA was arrested, then it became obvious.
RA is very short man. The pictures of him show him in ill fitting pants. Pants that fit his adult-sized torso are too long for his short legs and they bag noticeably. Just like the pants on BG in Libby’s picture. It was an “aha” moment for me.
We can argue about whether the blurry face of BG in the photo looks like RA, but there is no denying that the fit of the clothes are a perfect match.
That the FBI thought at some point,in an almost six year investigation, that the killer might be six feet tall is of zero consequence in my opinion.
To paraphrase:
“If the clothes fit, you must convict”
 
This is an important point in my opinion, and why I look forward to hearing whatever expert witness the prosecution calls regarding the forensics. The science is a subjective one, so the results are only as good as the expert, as you point out.

The more I read about all these marks, the less they compute.
Since the round wasn't fired, many of the markings discussed are moot, aren't they?

I wish we could find more information about extractor/ejector marks on unspent cartridges.
Since there are fewer of them, what makes them so identifiable?

The analysis reads (to me) that they test fired and cycled 3 cartridges through RA's gun.
Isn't that one action or can they test fire a cartridge without cycling it?
Wouldn't test firing interfere with the extractor marks on the cartridge?

Pg 278 Lab Analysis
 
Does the FBI actually believe this?
DELPHI, Ind. — Former FBI Special Agent in Charge Paul Keenan oversaw the bureau’s role in the Delphi case for nearly two years.

[…]

“I don’t think the state police would’ve brought this case without solid evidence and the judge wouldn’t have signed off on the probable cause affidavit without solid evidence,” Keenan said.

 
Wouldn't we all. Unfortunately, the CC courtroom is so tiny barely anyone will be able to do so. Too bad there's not some other method that would allow the citizens of the USA to watch the trial.

IMO MOO
Live stream it. Elkhart Co circuit court does it for most of their cases.

Lake Co. is live right now
 
If you’re unlucky enough to get the worst guy in that massive study, it goes from 99 to 1 down to more like 70 to 30, yes.

It’s 172 to 1 you get someone other than him.

If RA got the worst forensic tester, he’s still unlucky, just less spectacularly so.
(Replying to myself because it’s too late to edit.)

If RA got the worst tester, the 70-30 guy, he’s only somewhat unlucky losing that 70-30 in his favor flip. But he lost a 172 to 1 die roll to get Mr. Bottom of the Class. He’s STILL spectacularly unlucky. 30/70 x 1/172 = .0025 for an idea. That’s a quarter of a percent.

Yes, there are other ways he could lose not included in that model. He could have got the second or third worst guy and lost an 80-20 or a 90-10 in his favor proposition.

Still, you get a picture of the order of magnitude. The study reported that a very few individuals contributed most of the error rate. That the rest were well above the resulting average should tell you that the test has objective validity. Most trained individuals get it right practically every time. The 99 to 1 is the real total picture.

And then you have the study being deliberately constructed to include only tough calls.

RA is amazingly unlucky.
 
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Keeping Holeman's words in mind, exactly what is it that makes the reenactments wrong?
What is it about the videos that aren't the true details?
Comments like those below can take a person's mind in a thousand different directions.

Maybe the girls never finished crossing the bridge, maybe they turned around and went back after taking A's pic, maybe BG took them down the hill on the cemetery, maybe BG was never on the bridge.
Moo

(snips)
And armchair detectives are even taking their interest in the case a step further by creating YouTube reenactments of the crime.

Holeman: “[The videos] help us know that people don’t know [the true details], because the facts haven’t been released,” Holeman says. “People watch the news and think they are picking up on things, but it’s false. Nothing out there is accurate, which only leads to more false tips.”
But BG is Bridge Guy because he's videoed on the bridge.
 
Live stream it. Elkhart Co circuit court does it for most of their cases.

Lake Co. is live right now
It appears JG is camera shy, unless of course, she’s disqualifying and disparaging the D. For the unlawful act of disqualifying them, she received the dressing down she deserved by the SCOIN. In the end, she had to eat a bit of crow in that she found that there was NO contempt. However, she just could not resist disparaging them once again. This woman is incapable of receiving constructive criticism without lashing out. No humility whatsoever. JMHO
 
It appears JG is camera shy, unless of course, she’s disqualifying and disparaging the D. For the unlawful act of disqualifying them, she received the dressing down she deserved by the SCOIN. In the end, she had to eat a bit of crow in that she found that there was NO contempt. However, she just could not resist disparaging them once again. This woman is incapable of receiving constructive criticism without lashing out. No humility whatsoever. JMHO

Thanks for making me laugh when I feel like rubbish tonight with this head cold.

She is highly respected by her peers and doing a very good job in challenging circumstances so she gets my vote :)

She deserves a lot of love in my view for trying to stop a case that’s already done such a huge disservice towards the victims family’s by not letting it become more of a circus by letting cameras in.

Moo
 
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DELPHI, Ind. — Former FBI Special Agent in Charge Paul Keenan oversaw the bureau’s role in the Delphi case for nearly two years.

[…]

“I don’t think the state police would’ve brought this case without solid evidence and the judge wouldn’t have signed off on the probable cause affidavit without solid evidence,” Keenan said.


I'd be interested to hear from an FBI agent who was still actively on the case preceding (and up to) the arrest of RA.
 
Keeping Holeman's words in mind, exactly what is it that makes the reenactments wrong?
What is it about the videos that aren't the true details?
Comments like those below can take a person's mind in a thousand different directions.

Maybe the girls never finished crossing the bridge, maybe they turned around and went back after taking A's pic, maybe BG took them down the hill on the cemetery, maybe BG was never on the bridge.

Maybe BG [Bridge Guy] was never on the bridge? Isn't there a picture and video on Libby's phone, taken of BG ON the bridge?
Moo

(snips)
And armchair detectives are even taking their interest in the case a step further by creating YouTube reenactments of the crime.

Holeman: “[The videos] help us know that people don’t know [the true details], because the facts haven’t been released,” Holeman says. “People watch the news and think they are picking up on things, but it’s false. Nothing out there is accurate, which only leads to more false tips.”
 
It appears JG is camera shy, unless of course, she’s disqualifying and disparaging the D. For the unlawful act of disqualifying them, she received the dressing down she deserved by the SCOIN. In the end, she had to eat a bit of crow in that she found that there was NO contempt. However, she just could not resist disparaging them once again. This woman is incapable of receiving constructive criticism without lashing out. No humility whatsoever. JMHO

I think if there was any inkling in her mind to stream it, if she's watched any of the Karen Read trial, through which so much corruption and fabrication of evidence has been (allegedly) highlighted, she certainly won't continue to consider it now! Transparency is something to be avoided it would seem. I now understand why.

IMO MOO
 
I do too, I think the girls thought they were going to meet AS or someone linked to that account. That's why I believe Libby was so freaked out when she saw this short, old stumpy man coming their way instead of the beefcake that A_Shots presented himself to be.

MOO
So in this scenario, basically RA somehow knew of the upcoming meeting, poached KKs meeting. KK is a hard boiled liar and going away anyway, so he did't talk.
His leverage may have kept him out jail for a few years though.
 
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