Amanda Knox tried for the murder of Meredith Kercher in Italy *NEW TRIAL*#3

Discussion in 'Amanda Knox' started by wasnt_me, Jan 9, 2012.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. wasnt_me

    wasnt_me New Member

    Messages:
    4,109
    Likes Received:
    16
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Hi, everyone. Welcome back to the Meredith Kercher Murder discussion. As you know Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito's convictions were overturned by the court of appeals in Italy. Judge Hellman has released his motivation report, which other sleuthers have tirelessly worked on translating into English.

    http://hellmannreport.wordpress.com/

    Kimster granted permission to reopen this discussion and as we discuss this report and its implications, it is VERY and EXTREMELY important that we adhere to the TOS of this forum. I cannot emphasize this enough because this is a very heated topic, and disrespect for other posters is not tolerated on websleuths.

    Let's all be on our best behavior!:crazy:
     
  2. Loading...


  3. wasnt_me

    wasnt_me New Member

    Messages:
    4,109
    Likes Received:
    16
    Trophy Points:
    0
  4. Snoods

    Snoods Active Member

    Messages:
    3,782
    Likes Received:
    8
    Trophy Points:
    36
    The math theory 'The Prisoners Paradox" is just that. A math problem. You yourself may know this theory, Otto, but I confess I didn't know what it was before reading your post and looking it up. It is doubtful that AK and RS and RG all had the chance to familiarize themselves with said theory in said book. And if you read the math problem below, it is a totally different fictional circumstance. It is unfair to let people assume that it is a well known study or known among criminals.


    http://www.ece.umd.edu/~tretter/enee324/threeprisoners.pdf
     
  5. otto

    otto Verified Expert

    Messages:
    27,647
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Thank you for finding that! I knew that it was something I read a long time ago - indeed 5-6 years. That was another point that supported the theory of staging.


    The Micheli reasoning would also be included in the appeal court decision, wouldn't it? The jury of judges would have to read the case from beginning to end, including the reason that Guede, Knox and Sollecito were arrested in the first place. That evidence hasn't been annulled or discarded, it seems it's just been forgotten six years later. I haven't yet found a translation of the report, but will read through this: http://www.truejustice.org/ee/index.php?/tjmk/C343/

    This is a description of how investigators arrived at the conclusion that the body was moved, which contributed to the theory of staging.
    http://www.truejustice.org/ee/index...he_staged_scene_who_returned_to_move_meredith
     
  6. otto

    otto Verified Expert

    Messages:
    27,647
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    63
    WS is such a great place for learning new things!

    I was responding to a post about an economics example that I recognized as being based on the Prisoner's Paradox, also known as the Prisoner' Dilemma. The concept is fairly straight forward, although it is game theory; a field of study in mathematics.

    Suppose two children steal a candy. Even a child understands that if everyone remains silent, they'll most likely get away with it. It's along the lines of "honor amongst thieves." Math enters the scenario when the two children are separated and they each have to decide what the other will say when questioned alone. At that point, it becomes a bit of a gamble, statistically speaking. We saw that exact scenario play out when first Sollecito admitted that he'd told a "load of rubbish", because then Knox told a bigger load of rubbish (Patrick).

    I suspect that all parties involved in the murder understood perfectly well that if they kept their mouths shut, they had a better chance of getting away with murder. The problem, as I see it, is that instead of keeping their mouths shut, they told a load of whopper lies that simply made things worse. Game theory could have predicted that.
     
  7. otto

    otto Verified Expert

    Messages:
    27,647
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Good Point! Of all the times that Knox and Sollecito could have contacted police, it didn't happen until just before all h3ll was about to break loose and they knew it. Meredith's phones had been found and it was only a matter of time before the postal police would be looking for Filomina, but Knox's call to Meredith's English phone confirmed for her that the phones had not been found. That gave them time

    It would have been a good time to contact police when Knox arrived at the cottage and the door was wide open, there was a broken window, blood on the floor, feces in the wrong toilet, and a closed bedroom door that Filomina said was only closed when Meredith was away. It would have been a good time to phone police when Knox returned to Sollecito's apartment and described the situation.

    Still, Knox only phoned Meredith's English phone (the one she used to keep contact with her mother), not her local phone. Not reaching Meredith on this phone should have concerned her. Apparently it didn't. When Knox first spoke to Filomina, Knox was asked to phone Meredith. Knox failed to tell Filomina that she had already tried to reach Meredith on the English phone and it went to voice mail. That would have been a major concern for Filomina.
     
  8. otto

    otto Verified Expert

    Messages:
    27,647
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Regarding the Phone Calls to the Carabinieri:

    I guess the question is whether they were planning to go to Gubbio and let Filomina discover the scene? It sounds like Filomina and friends arrived before 1pm as did the postal police. From Knox and Sollecito, we know the postal police arrived first. Filomina and friends arrived second. The postal police arrived at 12:30 according to one statement of the Massei Report. It sounds like the Carabinieri arrived at 1:34, as that is when Knox phoned her mom to tell her that there was a foot, and so on.

    Now I understand the question of whether they had indeed phoned the Carabinieri before the postal police arrived, or did they sneak into the bedroom and make the calls. We know from testimony that Knox and Sollecito went into her room to make phone calls, she to her mom and he to his sister, but that was after the postal police and Filomina had arrived. The carabinieri were phoned after the calls to the mom and sister ... and those calls were made in the bedroom and witnessed by Filomina and friends.

    From Sollecito's statement to police, we know that he spoke to his sister, who recommended that he contact the carabinieri, but in the meantime the postal police arrived?
     
  9. otto

    otto Verified Expert

    Messages:
    27,647
    Likes Received:
    100
    Trophy Points:
    63
    What is the Timeline for Postal Police and Carabinieri

    • 12:30 Postal Police arrive, Knox and Sollecito are standing in front of the cottage, on the gravel driveway towards the gate (is there a 10 minute error and it should be 12:40)
    • 12:33 or 12:43-12:47? We know that Knox and Sollecito guided the Postal Police through the crime scene, pointing out blood, broken window and stating that nothing was stolen.
    • 12:40 Knox and Filomina have a phone conversation. Did Filomina learn more about the broken window?
    • 12:48 Filomina and friends arrive?
    • Knox and Sollecito go into Knox's bedroom, close the door and make calls to her mother and his sister. They are both advised to phone the Carabinieri, which appears to have happened after the arrival of the Postal Police, after the arrival of Filomina and friends, and prior to the discovery of the body.
    • 12:47 Knox talks to her mother, but nothing has happened other than the postal police returning two cell phones and the arrival of Filomina/friends . Did Knox wake up her mother in the middle of the night to tell her that she was very concerned that the Postal Police were returning two cell phones? Knox was unconcerned about the condition of the cottage until well after she saw the feces in the toilet ... no reason to call mom ... instead she had a slow lunch at Sollecito's apartment. It doesn't seem like she phoned to tell her mom about lunch at Sollecito's, since it was the middle of the night and no one (not Edda, not KnoX) remembers what was said.
    • 12:50 Sollecito talks to his sister
    • 12:51-12:55 Solleicto on cell phone with Carabinieri
    • 1:00-ish Filomina moves evidence in her bedroom: laptop, police intervene
    • There's some debate between Knox and Filomina about breaking down the door, Filomina agrees to take full financial responsibility and finally the postal police broke down the door.
    • 1:24 Knox phones her mother to say that Meredith has been found near the closet/wardrobe and she bled to death? "There is a foot"?
    • 1:24 Carabinieri Arrive
    • Knox updated her mother at 1:27, 1:29, 1:50 1:58, 2:45, and 3:31.

    Filomina says to break down the door. Knox says that Meredith routinely locked her door.

    Can you imagine the standoff between roommates Filomina and Knox as the Postal Police request permission to break down the door without financial liability. Filomina accepted financial responsibility for replacing the door and insisted that they break the door to check on Meredith. Knox said that Meredith routinely locked her door, even though she and Raffaele had apparently tried to break down the door "in a panic" shortly before everyone arrived. It's also possible that Knox and Sollecito wanted Filomina and friends to help break down the down - without the presence of police -thus ensuring that the crime scene was permanently contaminated. That would have been a "get out of jail free" card. The arrival of the postal police put a huge munkeyrench into having the bedroom crime scene trampled by several people before police were notified

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Coldpizza

    Coldpizza WS Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

    Messages:
    19,757
    Likes Received:
    336
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Continue here
     
  11. SMK

    SMK New Member

    Messages:
    7,952
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Thanks so much for this excellent post, Otto. :)
     
  12. SMK

    SMK New Member

    Messages:
    7,952
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Are we supposed to go back on the other thread? A bit confusing...
     
  13. Sonata

    Sonata New Member

    Messages:
    412
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Does anyone have any thoughts on why AK and RS said nothing was stolen if they had staged the break in?

    You'd think they'd try to make it look like a robbery, no?
     
  14. Coldpizza

    Coldpizza WS Administrator Staff Member Administrator Moderator

    Messages:
    19,757
    Likes Received:
    336
    Trophy Points:
    83
    No, the other thread was getting long. I just brought some posts over to continue the discussion.

    Hth

    :)
     
  15. whoanellie

    whoanellie Member

    Messages:
    278
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Post #9 above is very confusing. It links back to the old thread.
     
  16. Amber29

    Amber29 Active Member

    Messages:
    1,308
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Well the reason people get caught is because they don't think of everything. The perfect crime is not an easy accomplishment and they didnt have a whole lot of time. It may have been a slip in the moment to reply that nothing had been stolen when asked by 112. Considering how would they. Know nothing hadn't been stolen if they weren't the ones that staged it. If you came home to a ransacked room,broken window, and front door open would your answer be "no nothing was taken"?
     
  17. Sonata

    Sonata New Member

    Messages:
    412
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    If I had glanced around and seen the obvious items to steal were still there, ie laptop etc
     
  18. Amber29

    Amber29 Active Member

    Messages:
    1,308
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Well IMO it's just one more thing they knew about the crime that they shouldn't have in a long list of many.
     
  19. aa9511

    aa9511 New Member

    Messages:
    6,639
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Quote from Snoods:

    The math theory 'The Prisoners Paradox" is just that. A math problem. You yourself may know this theory, Otto, but I confess I didn't know what it was before reading your post and looking it up. It is doubtful that AK and RS and RG all had the chance to familiarize themselves with said theory in said book. And if you read the math problem below, it is a totally different fictional circumstance. It is unfair to let people assume that it is a well known study or known among criminals.


    Snoods, I'm moving this over since the last thread is closed. I want to say that I don't think it's about them studying a theory or anything like that....I originally wasn't even talking about a specific theory, but come to find out that there is one about it.......I was just talking about generally the principle I learned in one of my economics classes was that everyone does what is in their own interest (talking about deals, etc., then Otto told me it's called "game theory" which I had forgotten).

    So they come up with the theory, based on what people will naturally do given that principle. This is what I assume Amanda, RS, and and RG did independently of each other, no need for studying anything or even conspiring.....because each other did what was best for their own selves, this is the result that came of it....no one "rats out" anyone else.
     
  20. aa9511

    aa9511 New Member

    Messages:
    6,639
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    No posts since mine in the morning? I think some might not know there is a new thread....
     
  21. SMK

    SMK New Member

    Messages:
    7,952
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Just a quick aside. I happened to be looking at the Perugia Murder File forum and someone had cited an article from 2007, at the original time of the Knox and Sollecito arrests.

    I was very , very surprised to see, coming from Sollecito, instead of the "two young lovers wrongfully accused" meme, his insistence not only that he never again wanted anything whatever to do with knives or drugs , but more surprising: that he never wanted to speak to Knox again, claimed it was her fault they were arrested, and that he now saw that their "paths in life were strongly divergent".

    The reason this is stunning to me, is that I had assumed that from day one, the two had clung to eachother, woefully aware of their mutual innocence and horrible fate at the hands of over-zealous police investigators.

    Whereas when one reads these things, it all looks very different, as though the "2 innocent lovers wrongfully accused" meme was cooked up later? Disturbing.


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...red-Meredith-belong-killer.html#ixzz2iOdKsocM
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice