Any DNA experts agree w/RDI that transfer is more likely than intruder?

Discussion in 'JonBenet Ramsey' started by voynich, Sep 15, 2009.

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Unknown DNA found in 3 places, 2 articles clothing more likely

  1. I"m RDI, to have been deposited by intruder than innocent transfer

    9.1%
  2. I"m RDI, innocent transfer more likely

    63.6%
  3. I"m JIDI, to have been deposited by intruder than innocent transfer

    27.3%
  4. I"m JIDI, innocent transfer more likely

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. voynich

    voynich Former Member

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    I've provided other RDI spin theories, such as that the RN is the longest in history (it isn't) or that it has a motherly tone, or that PR somehow acted unreasonably after reading the RN and calling LE and then friends.

    While I am aware of the theoretical possibility that DNA could be the result of some kind of 3-way innocent transfer between JB and another male (which involves touching her sides of her pants and crouch) the amount of DNA thus transferred would be very small, quite possibily undetectable. Even if it were theoretically possible (A Han Solo One in a Million) it strikes me as much less likely than the official explanation given, namely, an intruder pulled down her pants and performed oral sex on her, where the saliva mixed with her blood from her vagina.

    When I speak of the RDI spin team, it is that the remote possibility of an innocent explanation is while possible, a more likely explanation than the probable and accepted explanation of an intruder and a sexual assault. The more probable explanation benefits from the plain fact that such an assault would gurantee the presence of his DNA on JB, whereas some kind of touch-transfer would not gurantee such quantity. To suggest that innocent transfer is more likely or more sure way of ensuring DNA detection, sounds like an RDI spin theory.

    Are there any forensic DNA experts who thinks that the RDI spin on DNA is what most probable explanation of the presence of DNA? In terms of odds, while I don't have exact numbers, to illustrate what I am arguing, if JB touched a male friend, there's a 30% chance his skin DNA would transfer to her skin, but then a 1% chance she'll touch her crouch, and enough skin cell DNA from friend transfer there, where it would mix w/blood from PR-staging, and 0.1% chance enough skin cells remaining for her sides of her pants. If an Intruder were to assault JB, there's a near 100% chance that DNA from his saliva would transfer to JB's pubic area, and near 100% chance that DNA would mix w/her blood, and 95% chance enough of his skin cells DNA would transfer to the sides of her pants. With these kinds of numbers and odds, it is sheer spin-doctoring to suggest that innocent transfer from JB is more likely than intruder.

    BTW A JIDI is justice is in IDI. Pronounced Jedi. Symbol is green or blue lightsaber. :) Forensics-sensitive.



    I've got no idea why RST don't cite McM, but I'm a JIDI. You'd have to ask them. Honestly SD, if the RST DID cite McM, would you put your credibility in what any RST 'expert' (ie John Douglass, FBI profiler, Lou Smit) says? Since the RST do NOT cite McM (perhaps the R's did not pay McM to do his case study?) you now claim that RST failure to trumpet him somehow undermines his credibility? Isn't that spin-doctoring?


    Since you've not read McM you don't know the power of the Dark Side. Specifically, you've not shown that he needs to be part of the original investigation to draw a valid conclusion. Until you do so, you're spinning his conclusion in a way that makes science and statistics appear invalid. Let's not forget why we are here, to bring justice to JB. What this means is using every available scientifically valid investigative tool to bear. McM foresnic linguistics and DNA are two scientifically valid tools that helps us accurately reconstruct the last night of JB's life.

    DNA and forensic linguistics and trace fiber evidence are the weapons of the JIDI knights, not clumsy or random like a psychological profile, elegant tools from a more civilized time. For over a thousand generations, the JIDI knights have been the guardians of peace and justice in the Old Investigation. Before the spin times. Before the RDIST. Darth who was a pupil of mine before he turned to spin, helped the RDIST hunt down and destroy the JIDI knights. Darth was seduced by the dark side of spin. Forensics is what gives the JIDI his power. It is the foundation that brings all the elements of crime together and binds justice in society together.
     
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  3. Holdontoyourhat

    Holdontoyourhat Former Member

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    The best example of RDI spin that I can think of, is when it was discussed YEARS later that PR spelled 'advize' while the RN author spelled it correctly. Occam's Razor and prima facie both suggested the RN author and PR would then be two different people. Instead, RDI spun that into 'PR deliberately misspelled words to mislead investigators' within about 15 seconds of hearing about the misspelling.

    Fastest spin in the west.
     
  4. voynich

    voynich Former Member

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    The professor will show you the true meaning of the Forensics. He actually uncatalogued several others (i.e pickup v.s pick-up vs pick up, countermeasure counter measure counter-measure) and the significance of mispelling advise as advize can be understood (along with other stylistic choices PR made) only in terms of forensic linguistics and the discipline's concept of the idiolect, the nature of language production and acquisition.
     
  5. madeleine

    madeleine New Member

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    I am RDI and I rather believe the R's had an accomplice in the cover -up than that it was some innocent transfer.
    And yes there are lots of DNA experts that say it could have been innocent transfer but I guess I won't waste my time to post their opinions and stuff ,who's really interested anyway? ;)
     
  6. voynich

    voynich Former Member

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    Could have been does not mean "the more likely explanation"

    Could have been
    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LzGss9QGAk"]YouTube - Tiffany Could've Been[/ame]
     
  7. madeleine

    madeleine New Member

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    Oh I wish there was an intruder and I so pray that there will be a trial.It would be the joke of the century, "Oj SImpson trial" season 2 & some pathetic DA whining and begging the jury for a G verdict.Hundreds of experts making money out of it,turning science into a mockery.This forum is such a good example of how a trial in this case will look like,makes me wonder if I really wanna see it solved.

    You always seem to forget the DNA in the OJ case.And WHAT DNA evidence they had!But sometimes DNA really doesn't matter,how amazing is that;)
     
  8. madeleine

    madeleine New Member

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    What's the point in having some things that favors your side if you can't or you're not interested in USING them.

    What's the point in having a weapon if you can't use it.......except being arrogant about OWNING it.Let's see what the brave officials will do about it when it's the right time.
     
  9. madeleine

    madeleine New Member

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    Bla,bla,bla........the Dna belongs to the killer....bla,bla,bla,....the writing is Patsy's.....

    SO WHAT?Is this a contest or something.

    Did any of this help the case so far?Nope.
     
  10. Ravyn

    Ravyn New Member

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    Did he have the actually RN or handwritting from PR...Or just like us getting the info from the computer...Did the LE or the R's lawyers give him these samples cause they sought him out...
     
  11. madeleine

    madeleine New Member

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    Yep like that guy who said those are 100% stun gun marks just from looking at the autopsy photos and then he said (duh) you really can't tell from a photo.
     
  12. madeleine

    madeleine New Member

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    May 23, 2001 Fox News Report (Part 3) - McKinley, Lou Smit, Doberson, Henry, Lee

    Lou Smit: If a stun gun was used on JonBenet it's very likely it's not the parents.

    Michael Dobersen: Everything is consistent with a stun gun :rolleyes:

    Carol McKinley: Forensic scientist Michael Dobersen never saw the body but worked from these autopsy photos and experiments with anesthetized pigs. But coroner John Meyer's autopsy reports says the marks are abrasions not electrical burns.

    Henry Lee: The best person to make such an interpretation is the medical examiner. Dr Meyer

    Carol McKinley: The one who saw the body

    Henry Lee: Who saw the body. We only sees a picture

    Carol McKinley: We have to believe him?

    Henry Lee: We, it Dr Meyer I have to believe him
     
  13. madeleine

    madeleine New Member

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    Talking about SPIN TEAMS

    One of the best examples ever:

    Apr 30, 2001 NBC Today Show (Part 1) - Smit: An intruder killed JonBenet

    Smit: “You know Katie it was the second day I was on the case. The very first photograph that I’d seen of that basement window(THE PHOTGRAPH THAT WAS TAKEN AFTER JR "PLAYED" WITH IT-THE WINDOW- HOW MANY TIMES?) - the window was wide open. And I said ‘Wait a minute take a look at that.’ That was one of the light bulbs that went off, and one of the red flags that I seen.”
     
  14. SuperDave

    SuperDave Well-Known Member

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    Ah. Then I suggest you be careful. By that I mean it might be helpful to remember that some of those you list (the motherly tone one specifically) were NOT thought up by RDIs on the Internet, but by those government agents HOTYH likes to drone on about.

    1) it wouldn't even have involve a male directly. JB could have done it herself.

    2) As for not being detectable, Bill O'Reilly was talking about this case with a criminologist from the FBI. She said that issue with DNA is the exact OPPOSITE: that as the tests get more and more advanced and more and more sensitive, they're MORE likely to detect DNA that is not relevant to the cases under investigation. A professional said that, not me. It's the truth, or may I be struck dead.

    If they could say that it WAS saliva. Problem is, they can't. They don't know WHAT it is.

    I'm glad you phrased it that way, for several reasons:

    1) "accepted explanation of an intruder and a sexual assault." Well, from where I stand, that's kind of the problem: it was assumed that there WAS an intruder and that there WAS a legitimate sexual assault to begin with. As I've explained before (a FAT lot of good it's done me!), they had the conclusion FIRST. Now, you think about that, and think about all the times that members of the RST itself (I'm not even talking about the internet IDIs) have attacked the RDI side for doing that (even when they DIDN'T do it). Mm, mm, mm.

    2) "the plain fact that such an assault would guarantee the presence of his DNA on JB," Aside from the OTHER things it would guarantee that weren't there (again, according to those govt agents HOTYH talks about), wouldn't you say that it would guarantee a hell of a lot more of it?

    Which leads me to 3) "whereas some kind of touch-transfer would not guarantee such quantity" The problem here is that there wasn't a great quantity of DNA in the first place. In just about every area of transfer, the investigators had to use methods that were designed specifically to detect minute DNA quantities.

    Everybody still with me so far?

    I don't care what it SOUNDS like.

    There are only two I'm aware of. One is Cyril Wecht. The other one is someone Mary McAuliffe supposedly spoke to. But there may be others. When this case was turned back over the police in February, Clint Van Zandt and Craig Silverman mentioned how there was debate about the DNA findings even now. But I couldn't say what they meant specifically.

    Like you say, friend: you don't have exact numbers.

    I'd sooner take dancing lessons in a minefield.

    I guess it depends. And I mean that. It's not a question of obstinacy as you seem to be making it out to be, at least not as far as I go.

    You mention Douglas and Smit, but you seem to have no real idea of why RDI holds them in such low regard. It's NOT because they're IDI. It's because they destroyed their OWN credibility because of HOW they went about it! Because their EGOS were more important than justice. They got on the "everybody's wrong but me" express and would not budge. And that's NOT just my opinion, not on your life. A lot of people, including the police and other FBI agents have said the same thing.

    Don't put words in my mouth, voynich. The RST has routinely trashed anyone from outside the case who offers an opinion. You tell me: what does this sudden reversal on that position seem like?

    I'm not spinning ANYTHING one way or another. You asked me for an honest opinion and I gave it to you straight out. That's it.

    Damn right!

    Maybe so. But there are other investigative tools as well. I'm just saying don't forget.

    I have not yet begun to fight!
     
  15. SuperDave

    SuperDave Well-Known Member

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    I KNEW I was forgetting something!
     
  16. Roy23

    Roy23 New Member

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    :clap:

    Unfortunately, I can also guarantee you that much more testing was done that would probably lock up this whole topic and force us to move on. But LE is not going to give that part up to us.
     
  17. voynich

    voynich Former Member

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    I am not aware Cyril Wecht is a DNA expert and that he claims that innocent touch-transfer MUST be a more valid explanation than the alternatives.

    There actually is a way to test the RDI DNA alternative hypothesis,

    if the touch DNA is the result of JB touching an unknown male and just a few specs of skin ended up in those 3 incriminating areas, we should also expect to find EVERY TOUCH JB did during that time to show up in the questioned areas, including PR, JR, BR, any one she touched while at White's party. There should also be female DNA in the form of PR and any female guests at the White party.

    If no such DNA is found the most obvious inference is that JB's touching these guests did not transfer enough DNA to be detectable in all 3 locations. If such DNA is found, such DNA could be consistent with the hypothesis that the unknown male DNA was also the result of some touch. Even then though it does not make it more likely, only possible.

    Was JR, PR, BR, the Whites, possibly JAR or MR DNA found in all 3 incriminating spots?
     
  18. voynich

    voynich Former Member

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    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaLvcM-u4ns"]YouTube - matrix neo vs. agent smith[/ame]
     
  19. Holdontoyourhat

    Holdontoyourhat Former Member

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    The DA's letter could be a clue from LE for the public to move on. Taken literally, it is more than a clue. Its a statement from govt official that an intruder did it.
     
  20. Ravyn

    Ravyn New Member

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    Get off the government they do nothing that is any good...Took 5 years for this DNA and after PR died and a new DA coming into office...Lacy cleared the R's without any other suspect...
     
  21. SuperDave

    SuperDave Well-Known Member

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    I didn't say all that. You asked, I answered.

    I'm glad you brought this up. From what I understand, it's not QUITE that simple. When the "touch DNA" story broke, the techs did a demonstration of how the process works. One of the steps is that the collected DNA is put into a sorter (I'm sure that's not the scientific name, but bear with me) and any DNA that is NOT a match to the DNA you're looking to match up is separated and eliminated. I promise you I'm not making that up.

    I appreciate what you're saying, but I don't know if it could be done at this point.

    I couldn't tell you.
     

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