Australia Australia - William Tyrrell Disappeared While Playing in Yard - Kendall (NSW) #77

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I do think Williams case is so much different to the other 2 IMO.

Any publicity is good publicity though. Hopefully there will be justice for William in the next 2 years.
Thanks for the link… interesting to listen to ….

Right toward the end, they say the Brief given to the ODPP is built entirely on circumstantial evidence … but a “strong circumstantial case” according to senior police …. make of that, what you will …

Also interesting, were the examples they give of people not coming forward in major cases for 10-15 years …. There is still hope that someone will come forward about what happened to William that day …

Edit to add: It took 20 years to solve the Sam Knight Case, but they have never found her little body… RIP ..

IMO
 
Speaking of Circumstantial Evidence ….

Where the Crown case rests substantially on circumstantial evidence a jury cannot return a guilty verdict unless the Crown has excluded all reasonable hypotheses consistent with innocence


Another point, for the ODPP to consider regarding the brief of evidence that was put to them perhaps???


From the Criminal Trial Courts Bench Book

I know that other legal cases have been won on circumstantial evidence, and the link cites the Gerard Bayden Clay case, as an example …

IMO
 
DBM …. Sorry wrong thread..
 
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Right toward the end, they say the Brief given to the ODPP is built entirely on circumstantial evidence … but a “strong circumstantial case” according to senior police …. make of that, what you will …

Well, Mark Morri and Josh Hanrahan immediately followed that comment with ...

They do think most of their briefs are strong.
Which is fair enough.
It is a vested interest.
They’re not going to go ‘here, this one’s pretty s-house’.


(at 27:25 in the video)
 
Well, Mark Morri and Josh Hanrahan immediately followed that comment with ...

They do think most of their briefs are strong.
Which is fair enough.
It is a vested interest.
They’re not going to go ‘here, this one’s pretty s-house’.


(at 27:25 in the video)

Yes, very interesting …… hence my comment….

make of that, what you will …

I also liked the comment that “journalists make the worst armchair detectives” …..

Between the podcast, and The Guardian article published last weekend, are journalists “changing their tune” slightly ???

Edit to add link

Post in thread 'Australia - William Tyrrell Disappeared While Playing in Yard - Kendall (NSW) #77'
Australia - Australia - William Tyrrell Disappeared While Playing in Yard - Kendall (NSW) #77


IMO
 
Yes, very interesting …… hence my comment….



I also liked the comment that “journalists make the worst armchair detectives” …..

Between the podcast, and The Guardian article published last weekend, are journalists “changing their tune” slightly ???

Edit to add link

Post in thread 'Australia - William Tyrrell Disappeared While Playing in Yard - Kendall (NSW) #77'
Australia - Australia - William Tyrrell Disappeared While Playing in Yard - Kendall (NSW) #77


IMO

I think they are probably as sick of the debacle as many people are, and they are much closer with the police than we are.

They defend the early investigation ..... "People blame the police for not sealing off a crime scene .. they were looking for a lost child for heaven's sake" (or words to that effect).

Re: the back to back coverage of the big dig .... they say the police find a piece of blue chux wipe and suddenly there is speculation that it is part of William's spiderman suit.

They speak of Maddie McCann and the Beaumont children in the same segment in which they speak of William. As if his case may never be solved.

And I did notice the comment that "this was all done before the inquest finished" (or words to that effect) as if the inquest should have been allowed to play out without this referral to the ODPP.

imo
 
I think they are probably as sick of the debacle as many people are, and they are much closer with the police than we are.

They defend the early investigation ..... "People blame the police for not sealing off a crime scene .. they were looking for a lost child for heaven's sake" (or words to that effect).

Re: the back to back coverage of the big dig .... they say the police find a piece of blue chux wipe and suddenly there is speculation that it is part of William's spiderman suit.

They speak of Maddie McCann and the Beaumont children in the same segment in which they speak of William. As if his case may never be solved.

And I did notice the comment that "this was all done before the inquest finished" (or words to that effect) as if the inquest should have been allowed to play out without this referral to the ODPP.

imo
The part about the “link”, between the Paedofile Offender and Samantha Knight, was also interesting to note ….

Allegedly the offender had “baby sat” Samantha (and other young girls) much earlier in her short life ….(and drugged them and taken pornographic photos etc)

That would have required considerable “digging” thru her childhood by Police, to find that link to the eventual offender … But it does prove just how often there is a link … in an abduction case … IMO

IMO
 
I know that other legal cases have been won on circumstantial evidence, and the link cites the Gerard Bayden Clay case, as an example …

IMO, the circumstantial evidence in terms of motive in that case was quite compelling for a jury, for example:

In October 2011, Allison Baden-Clay learnt of a long-standing affair her husband was having with an employee at his business. At the time of her disappearance Allison's life was insured for more than A$800,000.
 
Speaking of Circumstantial Evidence ….

Where the Crown case rests substantially on circumstantial evidence a jury cannot return a guilty verdict unless the Crown has excluded all reasonable hypotheses consistent with innocence


Another point, for the ODPP to consider regarding the brief of evidence that was put to them perhaps???


From the Criminal Trial Courts Bench Book

I know that other legal cases have been won on circumstantial evidence, and the link cites the Gerard Bayden Clay case, as an example …

IMO
Some further details on the Allison Baden Clay case (Worthwhile noting that they had found her body):

Murder of Allison Baden-Clay - Wikipedia Underlined BM
“On 13 June 2012, Gerard was formally interviewed at Indooroopilly police station and charged with Allison's murder and for interfering with her corpse.[16] He maintained his innocence and said he would "be strenuously defending the charges".[17] Gerard's bail application was denied on 22 June because Justice David Boddice said he posed a "significant flight risk".[18]

The trial began in the Brisbane Supreme Court on 10 June 2014. Gerard pleaded not guilty to the charges.[19] On 15 July, he was found guilty of murdering Allison.[20] He was given a life sentence with a non-parole period of fifteen years.[21] The charge of interfering with a corpse was dropped.”

“On 7 August 2015, Gerard appealed his conviction to the Queensland Court of Appeal.[22] On 8 December, his conviction was downgraded to manslaughter,[23][24] on the ground that the evidence at trial was not able to exclude a reasonable hypothesis that “there was a physical confrontation between [Baden-Clay] and his wife in which he delivered a blow which killed her (for example, by the effects of a fall hitting her head against a hard surface) without intending to cause serious harm.”

The decision of the Court of Appeal was controversial. T
There was a strong public reaction and a large rally was organised calling for an appeal to the High Court of Australia.
On 18 December, a crowd estimated at around 4,000 people gathered in King George Square in the centre of Brisbane to support the proposal that the decision be appealed.
Some members of the legal profession, in turn, were vocal in defending the decision handed down by the Court of Appeal. Prominent Queensland lawyer Terry O'Gorman, for example, said that, "You don't have a murder case or any other case decided by who can yell out loudest in the media" and that "those who don't like it have to cop it because that is the law."]
However, in an unusual move, the Queensland Director of Public Prosecutions decided to appeal against the downgrade.

The following year, on 31 August 2016, more than four years after Allison had died, the High Court of Australia restored the original trial murder conviction.

MOO
 
<modsnip: Removed random podcast that is not an approved source>

Certainly points out GJ influence and control over the media and the direction of Ws case. Any Journalist or members of the Rosann task force who believed the fp were involved were completely shut down and basically silenced. I think GJ got off lightly considering how his line of inquiry and public announcement of the fp being cleared of any involvement controlled not only the narrative in the media but also amongst his work colleagues. I
can see why Deputy State Coroner blocked a request for former NSW detective Gary Jubelin to give evidence to the inquest.

Australian Broadcasting Corporationhttps://www.abc.net.au › news › gar...Former detective Gary Jubelin won't give evidence to William Tyrrell inquest despite ...



I can see why the coroner did not want GJ to
 
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The part about the “link”, between the Paedofile Offender and Samantha Knight, was also interesting to note ….

Allegedly the offender had “baby sat” Samantha (and other young girls) much earlier in her short life ….(and drugged them and taken pornographic photos etc)

That would have required considerable “digging” thru her childhood by Police, to find that link to the eventual offender … But it does prove just how often there is a link … in an abduction case … IMO

IMO
Such a sad case. Who could be linked to WT at Benaroon? Could anyone have had a significant contact previously that we are unaware of? The only known person in the investigation is whoever attended the Xmas party it seems. Possibly talk of the grandchildren with a tradesperson? Then there is the unknown, such as extended family that have encountered him there on previous visits? In SK's case, her mother may have been unaware of contact as I believe she had let the child stay at a friend's house, who subsequently let the children be minded by MG when she went out. IIRC. It doesn't seem like a similar scenario could have occured in WT's life, but then, you never know? MOO
 
Wasn't one of WT''s bio parents parent - so WT bio Grandparent friends with a suspected POI's wife/girlfriend? IMO

POI who had been drunk and collecting cans in the bush? I kinda recall in my opinion a connection there?
The connection was more tenuous than that. She (Kim) was the partner of the POI's (TJ's) brother-in-law. And I could never work out whether she'd become acquainted with the bio grandmother before or after William's disappearance.
 
Wasn't one of WT''s bio parents parent - so WT bio Grandparent friends with a suspected POI's wife/girlfriend? IMO

POI who had been drunk and collecting cans in the bush? I kinda recall in my opinion a connection there?
However the investigation turns out - (unless there was some massive conspiracy involving everyone who was at one point a POI) - it’s amazing the amount of sex abusers with some sort of connection or link to the case that will be innocent. So many terrible people so close to WT in either distance on that fateful day or some other connection.
All imo.
 
However the investigation turns out - (unless there was some massive conspiracy involving everyone who was at one point a POI) - it’s amazing the amount of sex abusers with some sort of connection or link to the case that will be innocent. So many terrible people so close to WT in either distance on that fateful day or some other connection.
All imo.
JMO – In looking at a possible abduction of William on that fateful morning, I am questioning how one might have been planned:-
  • FM said that when she opened the curtains at approx. 7.30am she saw the two cars parked across the street (Although the existence of the cars has not been verified by any witnesses. Doubt over William Tyrrell foster mother's claim two cars seen in street
  • If a possible abduction was planned, that is early for a possible abductor(s) to be there across the road from the house … expecting William to be out on the driveway playing unsupervised!
  • Could it have been the case (Bearing in mind the FM was the only person to see them) … that they were there to check on the Foster Family’s vehicle parked at the house, and they would return later?
    … The problem with that suggestion is that 2 cars would be necessary; one car would suffice.
  • How would the abductor(s) know what time it would best for them to return?
  • A senior policewoman, Detective Sergeant Laura Beacroft, told the inquest that she put the time William vanished between 10.05am and 10.20am (Eerie comments William Tyrrell's foster mum made after he vanished )
    Although the FM estimated that William disappeared at 10.30am ( William Tyrrell inquest: foster mother immediately thought 'somebody has taken him' “She then called triple-zero at 10.56am, estimating he had gone missing at 10.30am. The last photo of William was taken at 9.37am.”
  • William Tyrrell inquest: Foster mum told 'different stories'
    “The female foster carer gave a statement to police on September 14, 2014 that "does not make any reference to sighting vehicles", the inquest heard.“But on a filmed "walk-through" four days later, she recalled seeing two cars, one grey and one white with "dark tinted windows".
    **“In one statement, the foster mother also said she again saw the two cars at 8.55am, just before the foster father left to go into town to get a medication prescription and have a conference call”.”

  • In this video, the woman stated the white vehicle was parked first in front of a telegraph pole.
    But under questioning by Ms Swift, Detective Beacroft agreed an unsigned and partially completed statement by the female foster carer may have later placed the grey car in front of the white car.
    This was exemplified by a recreated image of the street made and broadcast by Channel 9 in a 60 Minutes episode, which shows the grey car in front of the white vehicle.
  • Ms Swift asked Detective Beacroft if the female foster carer "was challenged about the two cars" by the then chief William Tyrrell investigating detective Gary Jubelin.
    Ms Swift asked: "She insisted she wasn't make it up?"
    Detective Beacroft replied: "That is my recollection".


  • ** The FF didn’t see the 2 cars there when he left to go to Lakewood!

  • If the photos were all snapped at 9.37am – 9.39am.
    And if that was following the bike-riding (FM and FGM were apparently both out there),
    Then that is when the FM said that she saw the green vehicle pull into the driveway next door (William Tyrrell's foster mother saw a man waiting in a car l) :
    “The foster mother was questioned at the inquest over a previous 2015 statement where she told police a different account of seeing the car driving down the street.Then, she said: 'I cannot remember whether the windows were down. I could not see any of the occupants'.
    “Asked to explain the difference in the statements, the foster mum said she had just read the police statement, 'and I just thought, I don't know why I said that.'”

  • From the discrepancies in the information related by the FM … is it possible that those vehicles were false memories created by the FM as per:

    William Tyrrell's foster mother could have created false memory about parked cars, inquest told
    “William Tyrrell’s foster mother could have created a “false memory” about seeing suspicious cars the day the young boy went missing in New South Wales six years ago, a memory expert has told an inquest.”

  • So …. IMO … there most likely was no planning for a possible abduction.
 
JMO – In looking at a possible abduction of William on that fateful morning, I am questioning how one might have been planned:-
  • FM said that when she opened the curtains at approx. 7.30am she saw the two cars parked across the street (Although the existence of the cars has not been verified by any witnesses. Doubt over William Tyrrell foster mother's claim two cars seen in street
  • If a possible abduction was planned, that is early for a possible abductor(s) to be there across the road from the house … expecting William to be out on the driveway playing unsupervised!
  • Could it have been the case (Bearing in mind the FM was the only person to see them) … that they were there to check on the Foster Family’s vehicle parked at the house, and they would return later?
    … The problem with that suggestion is that 2 cars would be necessary; one car would suffice.
  • How would the abductor(s) know what time it would best for them to return?
  • A senior policewoman, Detective Sergeant Laura Beacroft, told the inquest that she put the time William vanished between 10.05am and 10.20am (Eerie comments William Tyrrell's foster mum made after he vanished )
    Although the FM estimated that William disappeared at 10.30am ( William Tyrrell inquest: foster mother immediately thought 'somebody has taken him' “She then called triple-zero at 10.56am, estimating he had gone missing at 10.30am. The last photo of William was taken at 9.37am.”
  • William Tyrrell inquest: Foster mum told 'different stories'
    “The female foster carer gave a statement to police on September 14, 2014 that "does not make any reference to sighting vehicles", the inquest heard.“But on a filmed "walk-through" four days later, she recalled seeing two cars, one grey and one white with "dark tinted windows".
    **“In one statement, the foster mother also said she again saw the two cars at 8.55am, just before the foster father left to go into town to get a medication prescription and have a conference call”.”

  • In this video, the woman stated the white vehicle was parked first in front of a telegraph pole.
    But under questioning by Ms Swift, Detective Beacroft agreed an unsigned and partially completed statement by the female foster carer may have later placed the grey car in front of the white car.
    This was exemplified by a recreated image of the street made and broadcast by Channel 9 in a 60 Minutes episode, which shows the grey car in front of the white vehicle.
  • Ms Swift asked Detective Beacroft if the female foster carer "was challenged about the two cars" by the then chief William Tyrrell investigating detective Gary Jubelin.
    Ms Swift asked: "She insisted she wasn't make it up?"
    Detective Beacroft replied: "That is my recollection".


  • ** The FF didn’t see the 2 cars there when he left to go to Lakewood!

  • If the photos were all snapped at 9.37am – 9.39am.
    And if that was following the bike-riding (FM and FGM were apparently both out there),
    Then that is when the FM said that she saw the green vehicle pull into the driveway next door (William Tyrrell's foster mother saw a man waiting in a car l) :
    “The foster mother was questioned at the inquest over a previous 2015 statement where she told police a different account of seeing the car driving down the street.Then, she said: 'I cannot remember whether the windows were down. I could not see any of the occupants'.
    “Asked to explain the difference in the statements, the foster mum said she had just read the police statement, 'and I just thought, I don't know why I said that.'”

  • From the discrepancies in the information related by the FM … is it possible that those vehicles were false memories created by the FM as per:

    William Tyrrell's foster mother could have created false memory about parked cars, inquest told
    “William Tyrrell’s foster mother could have created a “false memory” about seeing suspicious cars the day the young boy went missing in New South Wales six years ago, a memory expert has told an inquest.”

  • So …. IMO … there most likely was no planning for a possible abduction.

Pretty sure no-one has said it was planned. Lots of people have suggested it was opportunistic. That is why they had tried to identify anyone who might have been in the area at the time.

Eg:
FBI-trained Kris Illingsworth, who worked as a NSW police detective, said it was almost certainly an opportunistic attack.
He also suggested that William, who had been roaring like a tiger while playing in the yard, had let out a 'last roar' that was 'especially loud, as though he's roaring at someone'.
'I believe this offender given he has this preferential idea of being attracted to children and has kicked so quickly into predatory child abductor mode, to me that says it's an older offender,' the criminal profiler said.

'This has years of experience and practice behind it.

'He sat there for a moment in his car and watched William - this flash of blue, this roaring noise that he's making - and he's been checking out the situation thinking that boy attracts me. I am interested in him, so I'll watch a bit more.
'And at that time he's also doing a risk assessment. He's very cool, calm and collected in what he was doing.
'This offender has acted with great boldness, skill and cunning.'

Link and imo
 
RSBM

  • So …. IMO … there most likely was no planning for a possible abduction.
Agree with everything except we have seen in a real estate campaign a couple of years after the disappearance, what looks like a white station wagon parked on the street at that telegraph pole and if my memory serves me possibly during one of the walk throughs. PS has also mentioned being familiar with 1 or 2 of the parked cars, saying he'd seen them earlier in the week but not on the day of the disappearance when he'd gone out to walk. What do we make of that? Where did she get the idea if it was made up and there is evidence of cars being parked there at a different time? Did she conflate a couple of memories under stress? Had her sister been there earlier in the week and mentioned the cars on the way back from PM, and she's gone, "Yes!", I saw them there! Did she make it up? If she is having false memories, then she probably didn't have anything to do with the disappearance?
 
JMO – In looking at a possible abduction of William on that fateful morning, I am questioning how one might have been planned:-
For what it is worth, my opinion only, if an abduction did occur I don’t believe it would have been from the front side of Benaroon Drive, (where the cars were allegedly parked). To me, that area is far too open..and too much risk of being seen…

I think a sneaky complex individual would have approached from the driveway side of the house …. No prying eyes …. Family out the back of the house, no opposite Neighbor, (bushland), Millers were away, and the Crabbs were out at least some of the time that morning ….to me, it just seems like a logical reduction of risk, to approach the house from that side…

Criminals usually conduct some type of surveillance which could last anywhere from a few minutes to a few weeks.

FBI-trained Kris Illingsworth, who worked as a NSW police detective, said it was almost certainly an opportunistic attack.
Yes agree …. Opportunistic rather than planned … JMO

UK-based criminologist Dr Graham Hill said child abductions were mostly situational and opportunistic, as opposed to meticulously planned.

“Abductors react on the spur of the moment,”
he said. “To stop child abduction, police need to understand child abductions, first and foremost. And understand how abductors work and why they work in the way they do.


Snip

Dr Hill pointed to an article he wrote about the profile of abductors. In it, he wrote: “Contrary to public perception, non-familial child abductors are often model members of society. At the time of their offence, they are usually either married or in a steady relationship and many have children of their own.

“They generally have a job and many actively contribute to their communities and society as a whole.”





IMO
 
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Pretty sure no-one has said it was planned. Lots of people have suggested it was opportunistic. That is why they had tried to identify anyone who might have been in the area at the time.

Eg:
FBI-trained Kris Illingsworth, who worked as a NSW police detective, said it was almost certainly an opportunistic attack.
He also suggested that William, who had been roaring like a tiger while playing in the yard, had let out a 'last roar' that was 'especially loud, as though he's roaring at someone'.
'I believe this offender given he has this preferential idea of being attracted to children and has kicked so quickly into predatory child abductor mode, to me that says it's an older offender,' the criminal profiler said.

'This has years of experience and practice behind it.

'He sat there for a moment in his car and watched William - this flash of blue, this roaring noise that he's making - and he's been checking out the situation thinking that boy attracts me. I am interested in him, so I'll watch a bit more.
'And at that time he's also doing a risk assessment. He's very cool, calm and collected in what he was doing.
'This offender has acted with great boldness, skill and cunning.'

Link and imo
I'm not meaning to be contrary but the exact opposite has been used to describe an opportunistic abductor as well. Poor impulse control, lots of other petty crimes and psychological hurdles to overcome before acting on impulse and doing such an act. Usually socially inept, 23 up to 45 y.o. male and then the risk starts to decrease past this age. MOO

Edit to say the following description in the article is very specific and I'm sure correct probably, “I’ve interviewed lots of men in prisons all over the world that have abducted and murdered children. My PhD is in men that abduct, sexually abuse and murder children.
 
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