AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #11

[galiuro]

Huh I heard one of the incidents with a white van following a girl as Campbell/Skyline...

The Townsend area is not that far from Celis house, is quite close to TMC, where mother works...

 

[Helenstreet]

The parents' interview was so emotional in how they are just now able to convey their extreme heartbreak. I thought they were honest, candid and sincere. It was so touching, that even with all they are dealing with, they are so intuitive as to the well-being of their other children.

I do have a question. They said they can't discuss their polygraph results as it might harm the investigation. If they passed, what harm would it cause? Anyone know? TIA

I didn't understand this either. Really, how would telling the public that they passed their polygraphs possibly harm the investigation? I am at a loss here....

 

[Helenstreet]

I think that if Isabel was kidnapped by an intruder, this is going to be like Jessica Lunsford or Danielle Van Dam, where the child is raped and murdered within a short period after being abducted.

Eileen, I had the same exact thought. If Isabel was truly taken out of her house by an intruder, this case reminds me so much of the Danielle VanDam case. I really hope that there is a happy ending here, but wasn't Danielle eventually found after three weeks?

 

[GutFeeling!]

However, he said he hopes police are as thorough in their questioning of anyone who has been around their daughter and in their home. "How are we going to trust anyone who has been in our home?" Sergio Celis asked."


This little bit makes me think Sergio has an idea who took Isa.

Totally agree, and he has indirectly answered that he is aware that others that have been around Isabel have been questioned and by "not trusting anyone" he seems to not want those people around ever moo

 

[GutFeeling!]

I don't know if this was already discussed but I don’t think Isa’s kidnapper will agree to return Isa to her family knowing he will be arrested and prosecuted to the full extent of the law if he does.

IMO, the person who stole Isa won't return her unless LE first agee not to lay charges against him and I don't think that is even an option but what the family would do if they could.

Isa’s parents told their daughter’s kidnapper they are cooperating with LE and will do anything to get their daughter back but they can't promise him he won't be charged so I unfortunately I don't think Isa's captor will pay any attention to their pleas.

Certainly not an option, can you imagine the outrage? They could do a dump and run in another state - NM is not far away, nor is Mexico - but really anywhere there is no cameras.

 

[GutFeeling!]

I have no idea why I think this but I have from day one - I have always thought Isabel knew her abductor but even knowing someone and them taking you even if they have many times before but it feeling bad this time would not keep a 6 year old quiet.

I have always thought drugged - I even dreamt it (nope not psychic but know some and trust a few AND have spoken to them about this) As I said NO idea why drugged came to my mind straight away.

My grandson is just 2 and totally confident staying with me but he has felt me being upset if his dad has dropped him off to go and do something that I have concerns about (nothing illegal)

 

[joedotnet]

LDT results don't really mean anything to me. Who knows if the police are telling them the truth if they passed or not. The police are not obligated to tell whomever takes the test anything about the results. In fact, a study shows that LDT are only about 61% accurate - http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2002-09-09-lie_x.htm.

 

[gliving]

In the interview, Sergio said Isa got the little white dog for Christmas.

That is one way I could see Isa going willingly. Someone at her window telling her her dog is loose and to come get it. But don't tell your folks or they will be mad. IMO

 

[oceanblueeyes]

LDT results don't really mean anything to me. Who knows if the police are telling them the truth if they passed or not. The police are not obligated to tell whomever takes the test anything about the results. In fact, a study shows that LDT are only about 61% accurate - http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2002-09-09-lie_x.htm.

I dont trust LDT especially in criminal cases.

I stopped doing so when LE told Ruth Lunsford she had failed a part of her LDT test and LE also told Steve Greone the same thing.

Either police intentionally lie or the tests aren't worth a darn because those two people had no clue what happened to their loved ones nor did they know the person who did it.

IMO

 

[liz b.]

I don't know if this was already discussed but I don’t think Isa’s kidnapper will agree to return Isa to her family knowing he will be arrested and prosecuted to the full extent of the law if he does.

IMO, the person who stole Isa won't return her unless LE first agee not to lay charges against him and I don't think that is even an option but what the family would do if they could.

Isa’s parents told their daughter’s kidnapper they are cooperating with LE and will do anything to get their daughter back but they can't promise him he won't be charged so I unfortunately I don't think Isa's captor will pay any attention to their pleas.

Seriously ? Not bringing charges would never even be considered.... MOO

And most pedophiles are very aware that no such options will ever exist for them... MOO

 

[Theforeigner]

http://www.hlntv.com/video/2012/05/03/isabel-celis-uncle-speaks-out

thank you.

I watched todays interview with Isabel's parents and I´m sorry to say, I STILL get a REALLY strange feeling watching thise two people.
Especially the father, but also the mother to some extend.
At no point, in a pretty long intreview, do any of them really brake down in tears, which I find odd.

Rebecca, the mother, have a minor brake down (almost crying) when she is talking about how hard it is for her to be on camera!!!??? I mean the only time she is in tears is when she talk about how hard it is for her to be on camera, not at any point when she talk about her missing daughter Isabel.
It's like she feel most vunerable when she is talking about somthing that is hard for herself, insted of when talking about her daughter missing.

And the father, well IMO he come across EXSTREAMLY odd...90% of the time he seem totaly forced, and IMHO superficailly, in his emotions, and his voice has NOT a true sad/distraught groundline, he is kind of trying to hard to look/sound distraught and concerned.

Go watch/listend to Rebecca's brother in the link above, HE seem genuinly sad/distraught, both emotionally and in his voice.
Go watch the parents and then right after Rebecca's brother and you will see the IMHO tremendous difference.

I´m not saying that the parents was behind Isabel's disappearance, but I'm sad to say; I STILL would not ruel them out.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Seriously ? Not bringing charges would never even be considered.... MOO

And most pedophiles are very aware that no such options will ever exist for them... MOO

That is one of the reasons I dont believe Isa is alive... although I do understand the parents wanting to believe that. In fact Marc Klass tells families in their situation to never give up hope.

IMO

 

[liz b.]

That is one of the reasons I dont believe Isa is alive... although I do understand the parents wanting to believe that. In fact Marc Klass tells families in their situation to never give up hope.

IMO

Yep.ITA with ya... moo

 

[Indy Anna]

In the interview, Sergio said Isa got the little white dog for Christmas.

That is one way I could see Isa going willingly. Someone at her window telling her her dog is loose and to come get it. But don't tell your folks or they will be mad. IMO

I had been thinking of the possibility that the perp tapped on Isa's window - if her window was closed, and then told her something after she opened the window to get her to go calmly with him. Most likely, it would have to be someone she knew.

 

[liz b.]

I didn't understand this either. Really, how would telling the public that they passed their polygraphs possibly harm the investigation? I am at a loss here....

At the last LE presser before today's presser, I heard the LEO say that the parents had taken LDTs. Then he said that they never make the resluts of LDT's public... could be an Arizona policy ? IDK... After all, 2 weeks in and the 911 call has never been made public...MOO

It is possible that one or both of their LDTs showed some anomalies. There has to be a very good reason that the parents have not been cleared...MOO

 

[ExpectingUnicorns]

I don't know if this was already discussed but I don’t think Isa’s kidnapper will agree to return Isa to her family knowing he will be arrested and prosecuted to the full extent of the law if he does.

IMO, the person who stole Isa won't return her unless LE first agee not to lay charges against him and I don't think that is even an option but what the family would do if they could.

Isa’s parents told their daughter’s kidnapper they are cooperating with LE and will do anything to get their daughter back but they can't promise him he won't be charged so I unfortunately I don't think Isa's captor will pay any attention to their pleas.

I know; it's a real conundrum, huh? (And I also know through personal experience that your are right. It is not the victim nor their family who decides if charges should be brought ~ it is the state. . . so that decision or bargaining chip is out of their hands.)

Nevertheless, what else are they left to say ~ left to offer as an enticement for the perp to return her or reveal where she is ~ other than what they already said ~ that they would do anything in their power to get her back . . . and never give up?

For me, it appears that they are cooperating with the LE officers. (Haven't even "lawyered up" although not much has been mentioned of that, despite the fact that had they retained a lawyer it would have made headline news!) Their interview today made me aware that they have also been trying to analyze their own responsibility in not having kept Isa safe from this terror happening. LE has never swerved from saying the family is cooperating and IMO their recent interviews have reflected the same. Whether I like the closed eyes, looking down in the wrong direction, head shaking, too much fake emotion, not enough emotion, etc, etc, etc ~ The big point of it all, for me, is as you stated, Bluesky, that they're cooperating. At this point, I find that alone a significant point in their favor. Besides, even though their pleas might not move the perp ~ they may engage the public to continue to keep on the look out for anything connected to Isa's disappearance. moo.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Here's a good summary of the parents' interview.

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...cle_8c510f32-9612-11e1-b59b-0019bb2963f4.html

"Sergio Celis said he accepts the scrutiny leveled against him by investigators as well as some members of the public. Asked again today how he feels about speculation that he is involved in Isabel’s disappearance, he said: “I really don’t know what to answer to that, other than, ‘You’re wrong.’ ”

However, he said he hopes police are as thorough in their questioning of anyone who has been around their daughter and in their home. "How are we going to trust anyone who has been in our home?" Sergio Celis asked."


This little bit makes me think Sergio has an idea who took Isa.

I really understand what Sergio is saying. How can the family trust anyone anymore after what has happened? Their entire outlook on everything will change now, imo.

They may have been very trusting people before but now they will look at everyone and wonder with a suspicious eye. I even feel they may shut themselves off from others afraid to trust anyone anymore.

That is why I hope LE catches whoever took Isa from her home because if not this family is going to crash and burn from the trauma they have suffered. They have had the safety of their home pierced and they dont know who the enemy is. Heartbreaking.

Like Marc Klass has said before 'it is the not knowing that is the hardest part.'

IMO

 

[Indy Anna]

Seriously ? Not bringing charges would never even be considered.... MOO

And most pedophiles are very aware that no such options will ever exist for them... MOO

I vaguely remember a case in which LE made such as deal with a perp and then reneged when he surrendered. I can't remember what case this was, though. It may not have even been the main player in the case, but someone that LE got to spill the beans.

ETA: LE is not obligated to tell the truth and I think most perps would not fall for this. Especially someone who's been through the system before.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

At the last LE presser before today's presser, I heard the LEO say that the parents had taken LDTs. Then he said that they never make the resluts of LDT's public... could be an Arizona policy ? IDK... After all, 2 weeks in and the 911 call has never been made public...MOO

It is possible that one or both of their LDTs showed some anomalies. There has to be a very good reason that the parents have not been cleared...MOO

I have never seen LE in any state come out publicly in an ongoing investigation and give the results of a polygraph they have given to anyone. Not in AZ or any other state.

Also 99% of the cases I have kept up with LE never comes out and rules anyone out by name. They simply announce they have made an arrest if that happens and that is it.

The only time I saw that happen lately was in Sierra Lamar's case and then the Sheriff retracted that and said no one has been ruled out.

IMO

 

[Jess Star]

Hi everyone. Let me just start by saying NEVER give up hope when there's a missing person, be it an adult or child. Yes, I know what the statistics say in cases like this and what some believe are the odds that Isa will be found unharmed. But if statistics always tell the truth, then why do people play the lottery when the odds of winning are millions to one?

There's been a great deal of discussion about the accuracy or usefulness of lie detectors. First, there's no such thing as a lie detector. If anything, they should be called physiological change detectors because what they really do is "detect" subtle changes in one's respiration, blood pressure, muscle tension, and so forth. Whether or not these subtle changes result from someone telling a lie is determined by the subjective opinion of the person performing the test. There is no "objective lie detector."

Having said that, lie detectors are merely investigatory tools. That's it. No detective worth his/her weight in salt would EVER change the focus of an investigation based on the results of a lie detector test. Think of it like a physician uses a blood test. In a vacuum, a blood test tells you little. A physician would never conclude that a patient suffers from liver failure just because the patient's liver function results determined through a blood test were abnormal. It is the blood test's clinical significance that makes it useful. In other words, the blood test, along with other clinically significant symptoms and tests, will lead to a diagnosis.

Investigators use lie detector tests the same way. In a vacuum, they are worthless. Couple them with other, more objective evidence, and their usefulness increases.

Why not release the results publicly or tell the parents/public whether the parents passed or not? Because doing so could reveal a potentially significant symptom--something investigators want NO ONE to know. Like the focus of the investigation.