Found Deceased AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #23

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Prof

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sexual predator assaulting girls in phoenix - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

"Just months after Phoenix police arrested suspects in the "Serial Shooter" and "Baseline Killer" attacks, another serial predator is on the loose in the city. This time, the target is little girls asleep in their beds. Police say the attacker is shockingly brazen, creeping in through bedroom windows, snatching the girls and sexually assaulting them."

01-31-2007

I hope they found this guy.


I am still researching this.
Snip

"The first case came in August [2006], when a man forced open a window and tried to pull out a 4-year-old girl. The girl's older sister awoke and screamed, alerting their mother, and the man fled."


Snip
"The second case was in November [2006], when he abducted a 5-year-old as she slept in her bedroom. Police believe the man sexually assaulted the girl before dropping her off naked from the waist down on the doorstep of a woman's apartment five miles away. "

Snip

"The third incident occurred in December [2006], when the man broke through the bedroom window of a 13-year-old girl, sexually assaulted her and fled after her screams brought her mother to the room."

Snip

"Police are also investigating two more cases that bear similarities. One was the sexual assault of a 4-year-old girl inside her north Phoenix trailer. The second happened last month, when a man opened the bedroom window of a 9-year-old girl and began talking to her before he was scared away.


Police believe the man is choosing and watching his victims and their families before he strikes."


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,249623,00.html#ixzz1ySViU2VK
Feb 2, 2007
 

SapphireSteel

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That is so scary!

I certainly hope LE putting time and energy on following up any connection...but I'm sure they are.

On the surface it could well be linked, however I remain cautious because these are intrinsically two different scenes. In the Phoenix cases, there is clearly a sexual motive..further, the offender seems uninterested in actually KEEPING his victims or even removing them to a place where he could offend in privacy.

All we have in Isa's case is one missing child, with no sexual connotations.

These crimes SO FAR seem intrinsically different to me. JMO of course.
 

Jules71

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On the Find Isabel Mercedes Celis FB page someone asked if Sergio is allowed to see the boys yet and the volunteer said they did not know but would let ppl know when they find out.
 

SapphireSteel

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I agree, Donjeta.

I am a fan of text analysis but I know that text analysis is not reliable with small blocks of text. You really need a minimum of short book length samples of text, both the text being analysed and the text from the known source, to come up with results that are likely to be accurate. That's a lot of text!

So now I wonder... maybe the problem with the statement analysis is that so many of the people who claim to be doing it are not using large enough samples.

Thinking... okay, a small book takes about 2 or 3 hours to read out loud. So maybe statement analysis also needs a couple of hours of sample in order to be accurate.

Text analyisis is not statement analysis, from the way you describe it...I think I know the text analysis you speak of and the principles are different. Text analysis is on the written word but Statement Analysis is on the spoken.

Statement analysis can be performed effectively on one sentence.

Case in point - PR's "we loved THAT CHILD" speaks volumes. I remember the hair standing up on the back of my neck when I first heard her say that, and now I know why.

I have only recently discovered statement analysis, because I have only recently discovered I am a "truth wizard", because the media told me so lol. I find it so funny someone's actually named what I have been doing for decades. Now I am researching the instincts I have personally used for years and finding out why things don't ring true to me - I always thought I just had a "knack" but now I'm finding out the science behind that knack, part of which is I have always picked up what other people would call "freudian slips".

We give ourselves away when we talk. We can't help it. Everyone can always say exactly what they want to say, because your brain is like a massive computer. When you speak, everyone understands what you say by the words you choose, which come automatically out of your mouth when you speak. Spoken communication comes straight from the source (the brain) and is a reflection of your thoughts. This is where liars come undone - get them yapping and they can't help but reveal the truth. Amazing stuff.

Just google Statement Analysis if you want to learn more.
 

Maiko

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I can't believe it's been 2 months, where are you Isa? :(

I'm glad she is still in the news, I'm holding onto hope that she comes home safely - soon. Like today.
 

time

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I am still researching this.
Snip

"The first case came in August [2006], when a man forced open a window and tried to pull out a 4-year-old girl. The girl's older sister awoke and screamed, alerting their mother, and the man fled."


Snip
"The second case was in November [2006], when he abducted a 5-year-old as she slept in her bedroom. Police believe the man sexually assaulted the girl before dropping her off naked from the waist down on the doorstep of a woman's apartment five miles away. "

Snip

"The third incident occurred in December [2006], when the man broke through the bedroom window of a 13-year-old girl, sexually assaulted her and fled after her screams brought her mother to the room."

Snip

"Police are also investigating two more cases that bear similarities. One was the sexual assault of a 4-year-old girl inside her north Phoenix trailer. The second happened last month, when a man opened the bedroom window of a 9-year-old girl and began talking to her before he was scared away.


Police believe the man is choosing and watching his victims and their families before he strikes."


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,249623,00.html#ixzz1ySViU2VK
Feb 2, 2007

Here again is the composite sketch of the recent attack suspect - "police are looking for a caucasian man in his 20s."

http://www.kgun9.com/news/local/149577485.html

The article you cited says "Authorities have put out fliers and mailers with a sketch of the man in the neighborhoods where they believe he has attacked, and they've gone door to door to warn residents." But I can't find the sketch of that man - anyone else?
 

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CJMAJORGIRL24

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Two months! Isabel, you shoud have been found by now. IT hurts my heart that we as a society keep letting our children be victims of these monsters. I am so sorry.
 

Prof

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I am still researching this.
Snip

"The first case came in August [2006], when a man forced open a window and tried to pull out a 4-year-old girl. The girl's older sister awoke and screamed, alerting their mother, and the man fled."


Snip
"The second case was in November [2006], when he abducted a 5-year-old as she slept in her bedroom. Police believe the man sexually assaulted the girl before dropping her off naked from the waist down on the doorstep of a woman's apartment five miles away. "

Snip

"The third incident occurred in December [2006], when the man broke through the bedroom window of a 13-year-old girl, sexually assaulted her and fled after her screams brought her mother to the room."

Snip

"Police are also investigating two more cases that bear similarities. One was the sexual assault of a 4-year-old girl inside her north Phoenix trailer. The second happened last month, when a man opened the bedroom window of a 9-year-old girl and began talking to her before he was scared away.


Police believe the man is choosing and watching his victims and their families before he strikes."


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,249623,00.html#ixzz1ySViU2VK
Feb 2, 2007

ETA BBM
to show that one girl was taken 5 miles away, and the perp tried to pull another out....
 

Prof

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Here again is the composite sketch of the recent attack suspect - "police are looking for a caucasian man in his 20s."

http://www.kgun9.com/news/local/149577485.html

The article you cited says "Authorities have put out fliers and mailers with a sketch of the man in the neighborhoods where they believe he has attacked, and they've gone door to door to warn residents." But I can't find the sketch of that man - anyone else?

Right before these attacks happened, the Baseline Killer was arrested, AND there was another series of unconnected attacks on teenage girls in Chandler. They convicted a man for the Chandler assaults on teenage girls. http://www.amw.com/captures/brief.cfm?id=44256
http://www.azcentral.com/news/artic...handler-serial-rapist-pleads-guilty01-ON.html
Weird that the attacks on the small girls in Phoenix happened around the same time as the attacks on the teens in Chandler; they were unrelated.
To make it even more confusing around this same time in Phoenix, there was a RSO in his late 20s posting as a middle schooler in a charter school, and there was a RSO from LA who abducted a six year old while staying with the child's mother. Both of these RSO's were arrested. The RSO who abducted a six year old in an unrelated case committed suicide shortly after the arrest, and CPS took custody away from mother and awarded it to out of state father. Still researching...
 

time

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I adore you, Time. You are always so nice and respectful. Thank you for being you.

I may have misunderstood your post. I have had a very busy day and its late and my 'thinker' may not be thinking all that well. :)

imo

You made my day :rocker:
 

TxLady2

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Text analyisis is not statement analysis, from the way you describe it...I think I know the text analysis you speak of and the principles are different. Text analysis is on the written word but Statement Analysis is on the spoken.

Statement analysis can be performed effectively on one sentence.

Case in point - PR's "we loved THAT CHILD" speaks volumes. I remember the hair standing up on the back of my neck when I first heard her say that, and now I know why.

I have only recently discovered statement analysis, because I have only recently discovered I am a "truth wizard", because the media told me so lol. I find it so funny someone's actually named what I have been doing for decades. Now I am researching the instincts I have personally used for years and finding out why things don't ring true to me - I always thought I just had a "knack" but now I'm finding out the science behind that knack, part of which is I have always picked up what other people would call "freudian slips".

We give ourselves away when we talk. We can't help it. Everyone can always say exactly what they want to say, because your brain is like a massive computer. When you speak, everyone understands what you say by the words you choose, which come automatically out of your mouth when you speak. Spoken communication comes straight from the source (the brain) and is a reflection of your thoughts. This is where liars come undone - get them yapping and they can't help but reveal the truth. Amazing stuff.

Just google Statement Analysis if you want to learn more.

BBM: Now see, that is one example of someone taking an expression that is common to Southerners and making it sound terrible. Patsy was from Georgia. People in the South say that all the time. "That child" or "that boy/girl" is just everyday language for us. So while you may think it indicates guilt, it does NOT. You can take a person out of the South but you can't take the South out of a person!!
I've also seen people commenting on some parents not saying their child's name every time they speak. We don't always use their name when talking about them to someone else. We say "my son" or "my daughter" frequently, and it's not distancing them, it is just a term of endearment.
I guess we could sit here and argue about it all day, but if you're not from here, you will just never understand that what sounds odd to you sounds perfectly natural to me!!!!
 

time

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Right before these attacks happened, the Baseline Killer was arrested, AND there was another series of unconnected attacks on teenage girls in Chandler. They convicted a man for the Chandler assaults on teenage girls. http://www.amw.com/captures/brief.cfm?id=44256
http://www.azcentral.com/news/artic...handler-serial-rapist-pleads-guilty01-ON.html
Weird that the attacks on the small girls in Phoenix happened around the same time as the attacks on the teens in Chandler; they were unrelated.
To make it even more confusing around this same time in Phoenix, there was a RSO in his late 20s posting as a middle schooler in a charter school, and there was a RSO from LA who abducted a six year old while staying with the child's mother. Both of these RSO's were arrested. The RSO who abducted a six year old in an unrelated case committed suicide shortly after the arrest, and CPS took custody away from mother and awarded it to out of state father. Still researching...


Ok... weirdly, I found the suspect photo sketch - the one attacking the young girls in Phoenix in 2006/2007 on a Norwegian site.


http://www.nettavisen.no/utenriks/article885488.ece


some of the translation is:

...times in the past month, a man broken in through the windows of the small child's bedroom and carried off the children from their beds. Parents in Phoenix in the U.S. state of Arizona are living in fear.

- We are very afraid. Before my five year old was playing outside alone, but now I do not have her, not by sight, said Blanca Manzanarez told ...
 

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Prof

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Ok... weirdly, I found the suspect photo sketch - the one attacking the young girls in Phoenix in 2006/2007 on a Norwegian site.


http://www.nettavisen.no/utenriks/article885488.ece


some of the translation is:

Time, weird as this sketch looks a lot like the Chandler Rapist... but the story you linked is about the Phoenix assaults/abduction. Here's a link to a full translation... one has to wait for it
He was convicted of raping teens between 13 and 15 in Chandler AZ.
This is not the same perp who abducted/assaulted girls in the 5 mile radius of Buckeye and 19th in Phoenix.
Two different cases right around the same time.
 

CJMAJORGIRL24

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I wonder if the parents have returned to work yet?
Is Dad allowed to return home?

I am also worried about Isabel's brothers. Can't imagine how hard this must be for them.
 

SmoothOperator

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New leads falling off 2 months after Isabel's abduction

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...cle_c3b012ca-e421-5cc9-b8c1-e3ce1789b1f3.html

Two months have passed since Isabel Celis was abducted from her midtown home and police have still not named any suspects or shared any information about what might have happened to the 6-year-old.

(snipped)

In mid-May, Sergio Celis entered into a voluntary agreement with state Child Protective Services to have no contact with his two sons, Isabel's older brothers, after detectives learned of information pertaining to the boys' welfare.

CPS and TPD would not comment on whether that agreement is still in effect.

Last sentence of course is interesting due to the fact that TPD until this point ALWAYS ANSWERED THIS INQUIRY WITH DEFINITE YES THE NO CONTACT IS STILL IN PLACE. .this drastic difference does pique my curiosity as to the possibility that its not in place any longer(if it ever wwas..jmo)

Jmo, tho!
 

Prof

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Okay for those who followed Gliving's find about the attack/abduction of young girls in southwest Phoenix in 2006/07, I am pretty sure they caught the perp in October of 2007. His initials are E R-R. I could only find blogs that rally against illegal immigration that included copies of the news article originally provided by KPHO. I tried. I don't think I can link any of those blogs?

I found his court records in Maricopa County that show mutliple charges of felony sexual conduct with children. He eventually took a plea of no contest to 2 counts of attempted sexual conduct with children, and no contest to 1 count of attempted sexual molestation of a child. This perp was just sentenced in 2010, but with time served he's already out on supervised parole as of January this year :(
http://apps.supremecourt.az.gov/publicaccess/caselookup.aspx
http://www.azcorrections.gov/Inmate_DataSearch/Index_Minh.aspx

I don't know how it works if he is illegal, as far as supervised probation...

OH and I did not find him on the Arizona RSO list either ...
http://www.azdps.gov/Services/Sex_Offender/
 

ditdot

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That could get pricy for poor people who have more than 4 windows. That's why I was asking about some program to subsidise the cost, so that low income families could afford them.

Also, such a program could help educate every parent that window alarms are a safer option than blocking egress through the windows.

yes I understand your frustration...I have 12 windows!!!!! 4 kids and lately all piled up in my bed...
 

GrainneDhu

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That is so scary!

I certainly hope LE putting time and energy on following up any connection...but I'm sure they are.

On the surface it could well be linked, however I remain cautious because these are intrinsically two different scenes. In the Phoenix cases, there is clearly a sexual motive..further, the offender seems uninterested in actually KEEPING his victims or even removing them to a place where he could offend in privacy.

All we have in Isa's case is one missing child, with no sexual connotations.

These crimes SO FAR seem intrinsically different to me. JMO of course.

I agree that with what is known so far, there seems to be no connection with Isabel.

But I can see some similarities and I can see the possibility that they are linked.

Years ago, John Douglas (FBI profiler) pointed out in one of his books that sexual predators that kill sometimes didn't set out to kill their victim. Something goes wrong during the commission of their crime, the predator panics and then kills the victim.

He talked about a case local to him where an elementary school principal got off by watching young children have their feet tickled. I don't remember all the details but I do remember the guy was subtle enough that none of the children he interacted with showed any signs of trauma.

There was debate about whether this guy should be removed from teaching. Douglas's opinion was that he should not be allowed to teach, not because his kink was dangerous to children but because he was at high risk if he ever started engaging in foot tickling again and a child threatened to tell on him. In his panic, the foot tickler might kill a child to silence them.

The Phoenix predator actually has moved a child out of their own home, left them naked from the waist down miles from home.

My what-if would be: if this guy removed Isa from her parent's home and then something happened so that he killed Isa in a fit of panic. Clearly this is a perpetrator who is exceptionally bold about getting into people's homes and actually committing assaults there.
 

time

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Okay for those who followed Gliving's find about the attack/abduction of young girls in southwest Phoenix in 2006/07, I am pretty sure they caught the perp in October of 2007. His initials are E R-R. I could only find blogs that rally against illegal immigration that included copies of the news article originally provided by KPHO. I tried. I don't think I can link any of those blogs?

I found his court records in Maricopa County that show mutliple charges of felony sexual conduct with children. He eventually took a plea of no contest to 2 counts of attempted sexual conduct with children, and no contest to 1 count of attempted sexual molestation of a child. This perp was just sentenced in 2010, but with time served he's already out on supervised parole as of January this year :(
http://apps.supremecourt.az.gov/publicaccess/caselookup.aspx
http://www.azcorrections.gov/Inmate_DataSearch/Index_Minh.aspx

I don't know how it works if he is illegal, as far as supervised probation...

OH and I did not find him on the Arizona RSO list either ...
http://www.azdps.gov/Services/Sex_Offender/

This is all horrible. I don't know how people molest children or attempt to and get out of it so lightly.
 
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