Found Deceased AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #23

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time

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Last sentence of course is interesting due to the fact that TPD until this point ALWAYS ANSWERED THIS INQUIRY WITH DEFINITE YES THE NO CONTACT IS STILL IN PLACE. .this drastic difference does pique my curiosity as to the possibility that its not in place any longer(if it ever wwas..jmo)

Jmo, tho!


Curious, I don't quite understand why they wouldn't answer the question.
 

Prof

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The Phoenix predator was caught and is already out of prison as of late January. He was in prison in Florence, AZ, which is south of Phoenix on the way to Tucson.
His records note that he's a Mexican national, but it looks like he does have to serve community supervised parole until September, so who knows where he is, or how long it takes to get on a registered sex offender list.
 

Prof

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This is all horrible. I don't know how people molest children or attempt to and get out of it so lightly.

I am shocked, sickened by his record, and the fact that he's evidently on community supervised parole, but not showing up as a RSO?
Gliving? Have you provided this information to LE? I really would like to know where this guy is.
 

MBK

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I am shocked, sickened by his record, and the fact that he's evidently on community supervised parole, but not showing up as a RSO?
Gliving? Have you provided this information to LE? I really would like to know where this guy is.

I am beyond appalled by this. Supervised PAROLE? :what: How about deporting him? Not that we should foist this monster on Mexico . . . but I cannot IMAGINE what his victims' parents are thinking and feeling.

Good work, people. Great work.
 

GrainneDhu

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Text analyisis is not statement analysis, from the way you describe it...I think I know the text analysis you speak of and the principles are different. Text analysis is on the written word but Statement Analysis is on the spoken.

Statement analysis can be performed effectively on one sentence.

Case in point - PR's "we loved THAT CHILD" speaks volumes. I remember the hair standing up on the back of my neck when I first heard her say that, and now I know why.

I have only recently discovered statement analysis, because I have only recently discovered I am a "truth wizard", because the media told me so lol. I find it so funny someone's actually named what I have been doing for decades. Now I am researching the instincts I have personally used for years and finding out why things don't ring true to me - I always thought I just had a "knack" but now I'm finding out the science behind that knack, part of which is I have always picked up what other people would call "freudian slips".

We give ourselves away when we talk. We can't help it. Everyone can always say exactly what they want to say, because your brain is like a massive computer. When you speak, everyone understands what you say by the words you choose, which come automatically out of your mouth when you speak. Spoken communication comes straight from the source (the brain) and is a reflection of your thoughts. This is where liars come undone - get them yapping and they can't help but reveal the truth. Amazing stuff.

Just google Statement Analysis if you want to learn more.

BBM

To me, the cited example is another "could be hinky, could be an individual verbal quirk, I don't know enough to know." Without knowing PR for several years, without knowing if she also referred to their son as "that child" on occasion, etc, it is impossible for me to judge just how off-kilter the statement is.

I have done quite a bit of reading on statement analysis and I am unconvinced.

I have a counter-example: when Devon Davis disappeared (toddler from Texas who was found drowned in a nearby body of water 4 days later), one of the statement analysis blogs analysed April Davis's statements to the media and made it sound like she was guilty as heck in his disappearance:

http://***************************/2012/03/mother-pleas-for-2-year-old-son.html

However, she wasn't guilty of anything other than being an exhausted mom grabbing a nap while her children napped (with is what parents of babies and small children are often told to do!).

Why did she speak the way she did? I don't know but my guess is exhaustion, shock, perhaps not the most educated person out there and may have horrible stage fright too (I've often read that fear of speaking in public is the most common fear).
 

GrainneDhu

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BBM: Now see, that is one example of someone taking an expression that is common to Southerners and making it sound terrible. Patsy was from Georgia. People in the South say that all the time. "That child" or "that boy/girl" is just everyday language for us. So while you may think it indicates guilt, it does NOT. You can take a person out of the South but you can't take the South out of a person!!
I've also seen people commenting on some parents not saying their child's name every time they speak. We don't always use their name when talking about them to someone else. We say "my son" or "my daughter" frequently, and it's not distancing them, it is just a term of endearment.
I guess we could sit here and argue about it all day, but if you're not from here, you will just never understand that what sounds odd to you sounds perfectly natural to me!!!!

Ha, sounds like the equivalent of the English and Irish "our <insert name>." For example, saying "our Nan" or "our Donald" rather than just "Nan" or "Donald."

All it means is "the Nan you and I know rather than any other Nan." To people from other parts of the world, it sounds odd but from my mom, it was just the sound of home.

I have no idea how a statement analysand would treat that coming from the mouth of the parent of a missing child but I'd be afraid to look.
 

Prof

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Spending quite some time trying to track down whether they ever caught the perp who was entering bedroom windows of young girls in south Phoenix today, I came across many other cases of child sexual predators. I do realize the chance that it is the same perp is slim, but the fact that this guy was in the news for 5 attacks, 3 of which they could evidently prove by DNA, on very young girls in the middle of the night, climbing through windows in homes where adults were present seems close enough for LE to investigate, especially when considering that he was let loose at the end of January this year...

GRR sorry but I just cannot get over this -- 5 years total --3 years in county jail awaiting trial --- less than 2 years in prison

I guess it's okay to post the counts without identifying information -- he ended up pleaing no contest to three counts, counts 3, 5 and 6, and was sentenced 5 years. I guess he did serve the "truth in sentence."



1 BURGLARY 2ND DEGREE 10/23/2007 SUPERVENING INDICTMENT

2 AGGRAVATED ASSAULT 3/25/2010 PLEA TO OTHER CHARGES

3 SEXUAL CONDUCT WITH MINOR 2/12/2010 PLEA TO OTHER CHARGES

4 SEXUAL CONDUCT WITH MINOR 3/25/2010 PLEA TO OTHER CHARGES

5 SEXUAL CONDUCT WITH MINOR 10/23/2007 SUPERVENING INDICTMENT

6 MOLESTATION OF CHILD 2/12/2010 PLEA TO OTHER CHARGES
 

pieper4

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Okay for those who followed Gliving's find about the attack/abduction of young girls in southwest Phoenix in 2006/07, I am pretty sure they caught the perp in October of 2007. His initials are E R-R. I could only find blogs that rally against illegal immigration that included copies of the news article originally provided by KPHO. I tried. I don't think I can link any of those blogs?

I found his court records in Maricopa County that show mutliple charges of felony sexual conduct with children. He eventually took a plea of no contest to 2 counts of attempted sexual conduct with children, and no contest to 1 count of attempted sexual molestation of a child. This perp was just sentenced in 2010, but with time served he's already out on supervised parole as of January this year :(
http://apps.supremecourt.az.gov/publicaccess/caselookup.aspx
http://www.azcorrections.gov/Inmate_DataSearch/Index_Minh.aspx

I don't know how it works if he is illegal, as far as supervised probation...

OH and I did not find him on the Arizona RSO list either ...
http://www.azdps.gov/Services/Sex_Offender/

I don't know how this would work. Maybe one of our resident legal-types can chime in. With an illegal, I would *think* they'd be deported and possibly transfer jurisdiction (with agreement) for probation to Mexico? Wow.
 

winterrose

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This is horrible, he gets that little bit of time and then can walk free. This is also the reason these things keep happening. He should have gotten life, because he destroys the lives of so many.
 

CJMAJORGIRL24

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I am shocked, sickened by his record, and the fact that he's evidently on community supervised parole, but not showing up as a RSO?
Gliving? Have you provided this information to LE? I really would like to know where this guy is.

This is one I will try and dig deeper into. Thanks, Prof. Our system is so flawed.
 

SapphireSteel

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BBM

To me, the cited example is another "could be hinky, could be an individual verbal quirk, I don't know enough to know." Without knowing PR for several years, without knowing if she also referred to their son as "that child" on occasion, etc, it is impossible for me to judge just how off-kilter the statement is.

I have done quite a bit of reading on statement analysis and I am unconvinced.

I have a counter-example: when Devon Davis disappeared (toddler from Texas who was found drowned in a nearby body of water 4 days later), one of the statement analysis blogs analysed April Davis's statements to the media and made it sound like she was guilty as heck in his disappearance:

http://***************************/2012/03/mother-pleas-for-2-year-old-son.html

However, she wasn't guilty of anything other than being an exhausted mom grabbing a nap while her children napped (with is what parents of babies and small children are often told to do!).

Why did she speak the way she did? I don't know but my guess is exhaustion, shock, perhaps not the most educated person out there and may have horrible stage fright too (I've often read that fear of speaking in public is the most common fear).

I have never relied on Statement Analysis or any other pseudo science in real life. In real life the hair goes up on the back of my neck when I hear a lie.

I was a debt collector for years, maybe that had something to do with it...all I know is that I trust my gut, and my gut simply will not allow me to accept anything but the parents are involved somehow.

:moo:
 

CJMAJORGIRL24

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I chose the Criminal Justice field so that one day I could help our children in some small way. But lately, I have really been sick. It is hard to learn about every day of your life, and it just keeps getting worse.

When asked about an internship-i have begged to go to Maricopa County because I have always felt that the "system" worked there. I might as well stay home if this is the way it REALLY is there.

The man you all are speaking of is a monster, and should be deported yesterday. No doubt in my mind, he will harm another child. And will not leave a victim to testify or turn him in.

I am shaking I am so angry. :(
 

FrayedKnot

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BBM: Now see, that is one example of someone taking an expression that is common to Southerners and making it sound terrible. Patsy was from Georgia. People in the South say that all the time. "That child" or "that boy/girl" is just everyday language for us. So while you may think it indicates guilt, it does NOT. You can take a person out of the South but you can't take the South out of a person!!
I've also seen people commenting on some parents not saying their child's name every time they speak. We don't always use their name when talking about them to someone else. We say "my son" or "my daughter" frequently, and it's not distancing them, it is just a term of endearment.
I guess we could sit here and argue about it all day, but if you're not from here, you will just never understand that what sounds odd to you sounds perfectly natural to me!!!!

Southern girl, born and raised. ITA.

My ex and I will look at each other during school events or performances and say "G*d, I love that child!"

And I often say "my girl" when talking about her to people who know her and know her name.
 

SapphireSteel

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I agree that with what is known so far, there seems to be no connection with Isabel.

But I can see some similarities and I can see the possibility that they are linked.

Years ago, John Douglas (FBI profiler) pointed out in one of his books that sexual predators that kill sometimes didn't set out to kill their victim. Something goes wrong during the commission of their crime, the predator panics and then kills the victim.

He talked about a case local to him where an elementary school principal got off by watching young children have their feet tickled. I don't remember all the details but I do remember the guy was subtle enough that none of the children he interacted with showed any signs of trauma.

There was debate about whether this guy should be removed from teaching. Douglas's opinion was that he should not be allowed to teach, not because his kink was dangerous to children but because he was at high risk if he ever started engaging in foot tickling again and a child threatened to tell on him. In his panic, the foot tickler might kill a child to silence them.

The Phoenix predator actually has moved a child out of their own home, left them naked from the waist down miles from home.

My what-if would be: if this guy removed Isa from her parent's home and then something happened so that he killed Isa in a fit of panic. Clearly this is a perpetrator who is exceptionally bold about getting into people's homes and actually committing assaults there.


This predator would've just dumped the body and ran, iif that had happened. All the offences were actually committed in/near the victims homes...IMO they would've found Isa by now. The Phoenix perp has never seemed interested in taking his victims home with him.

Isa's abduction shows no sexual undertones which you would expect with a predator. IMO. At least that we know about!
 

Knox

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Southern girl, born and raised. ITA.

My ex and I will look at each other during school events or performances and say "G*d, I love that child!"

And I often say "my girl" when talking about her to people who know her and know her name.

Cali born and raised, with a Southern Mama. I also use those expressions ... said with love
icon7.gif
 

oceanblueeyes

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BBM

To me, the cited example is another "could be hinky, could be an individual verbal quirk, I don't know enough to know." Without knowing PR for several years, without knowing if she also referred to their son as "that child" on occasion, etc, it is impossible for me to judge just how off-kilter the statement is.

I have done quite a bit of reading on statement analysis and I am unconvinced.

I have a counter-example: when Devon Davis disappeared (toddler from Texas who was found drowned in a nearby body of water 4 days later), one of the statement analysis blogs analysed April Davis's statements to the media and made it sound like she was guilty as heck in his disappearance:

http://***************************/2012/03/mother-pleas-for-2-year-old-son.html

However, she wasn't guilty of anything other than being an exhausted mom grabbing a nap while her children napped (with is what parents of babies and small children are often told to do!).

Why did she speak the way she did? I don't know but my guess is exhaustion, shock, perhaps not the most educated person out there and may have horrible stage fright too (I've often read that fear of speaking in public is the most common fear).

Ed Smart would also use past tense at times when referring to Elizabeth when she was kidnapped and we certainly know that man wasn't guilty of anything.

Statement analysis doesnt impress me. I have seen them be wrong and they pretty much have the same analysis on everyone. For example..... all the ones that blogged about Amy Hensley's murder had her husband guilty as sin of murdering her when he had nothing whatsoever to do with her brutal murder.

IMO
 

SapphireSteel

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I chose the Criminal Justice field so that one day I could help our children in some small way. But lately, I have really been sick. It is hard to learn about every day of your life, and it just keeps getting worse.

When asked about an internship-i have begged to go to Maricopa County because I have always felt that the "system" worked there. I might as well stay home if this is the way it REALLY is there.
The man you all are speaking of is a monster, and should be deported yesterday. No doubt in my mind, he will harm another child. And will not leave a victim to testify or turn him in.

I am shaking I am so angry. :(



My old boss used to say, "if you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem".

Go and work there...all it takes is one fresh voice withi initiative to start the ball of change rolling...you could make the difference. The system needs people like you.
 

oceanblueeyes

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Southern girl, born and raised. ITA.

My ex and I will look at each other during school events or performances and say "G*d, I love that child!"

And I often say "my girl" when talking about her to people who know her and know her name.

Yep, southern girl here too......born and raised and still live in the south.

We do have our special ways of talking that is for sure. :)
 

Dr. Know?

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I believe they are deported immediately after incarceration but will check tomorrow or this weekend.
 
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