The more I read, the more I am interested in the fact that there is little mention of the balconies. On the morning of the 26th, did JR check all the balcony doors and windows both to JBR's bedroom and to the playroom? I can find nothing to indicate that he went out on the balcony that morning. I find it interesting, if in fact there was no close inspection of the CLOSEST and MOST CONTIGUOUS possible entry points to where JBR was last seen. Imo it seems that this would be intuitive. Possibly he did, but a supposed report menioned no footprints in the frost? Imo, I don't see how your child is taken from her bedroom, and you don't give strong consideration to the EXTERIOR door in that very bedroom. Then I contrast this to the apparent basement fixation. One search of the basement by JR, possibly a previous trip to the basement if he placed that chair in the way of the door, and finally when instruced by Arndt to search the house - again directly to the basement.