This theory is well supported by the evidence. There's a lot to be said for this approach. While its very possible that JBR was spotted by a perp or co-perp at a beauty pageant, unfortunately predator-killer perps spot their victims at all kinds of venues. IOW, if JBR was spotted at a pageant, it was incidental. Pageants should be just as safe for kids as tae-kwan-do or any other activity. IMO there was likely pre-planning, or 'casing' that took place ahead of time. The perp(s) may have even developed "key access" to the home. A burglary prior to Dec 25 could have occurred without a trace. I'm not sure perps with this type of plan are going to rely on a window or a suitcase. The interpretation of the RN as intending to confuse the police is IMO the best interpretation yet. It stalled finding JBR. It also teased the police. The author hints at an identity (small foreign faction) hints again (...not the country that it serves), hints at a motive (we don't like fat cats), and hints at a repeat performance (...so killing wont be difficult). IMO this RN author has done this sort of thing before. Its possible that the hint of a repeat performance places the perp(s) in a serial killer category. While the whole purpose of the crime is not yet known, I think this theory best explains the available facts.